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DEMOGRAPHY
FEBRUARY 1996 - VOLUME 33, NUMBER 1
97.09.1 - English - Barbara ENTWISLE, Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Cb #3210 Hamilton Hall 070a, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3210 (U.S.A.), Ronald R. RINDFUSS, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (U.S.A.), David K. GUILKEY, Department of Economics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (U.S.A.), Aphichat CHAMRATRITHIRONG, Institute for Population and Social Research, Mahidol University (Thaïlande), Sara R. CURRAN, Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle (U.S.A.), and Yothin SAWANGDEE, Institute for Population and Social Research, Mahidol University (Thaïlande) (E-mail : entwisle@unc.edu)
Community and contraceptive choice in rural Thailand: A case study of Nan Rong (p. 1-11)
This paper blends quantitative with qualitative data in an investigation of community and contraceptive choice in Nang Rong, Thailand. Specifically, it develops an explanation of 1) method dominance within villages, coupled with 2) marked differences between villages in the popularity of particular methods. The quantitative analysis demonstrates the importance of village location and placement of family planning services for patterns of contraceptive choice. The qualitative data provide a complementary perspective, emphasizing the importance of social as well as physical space and giving particular attention to the structure of conversational networks. (THAILAND, CONTRACEPTIVE METHODS, CHOICE, LOCAL COMMUNITIES, FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMMES)
97.09.2 - English - Fiona STEELE, Ian DIAMOND, Department of Social Statistics, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ (U.K.), and Duolao WANG, Department of Social Policy and Administration, London School of Economics, Londres (U.K.) (E-mail : fas@alcd.soton.ac.uk)
The determinants of the duration of contraceptive use in China: A multilevel multinomial discrete-hazards modeling approach (p. 12-23)
Often in demography, individuals may change state over time for a variety of reasons. Competing-risks hazards models have been developed to model such situations. This paper describes the extension of the discrete-time competing-risks hazards model to a multilevel framework that allows for data at different levels of aggregation. The model is illustrated with data from the 1988 Chinese National Survey of Fertility and Contraceptive Prevalence, which collected complete contraceptive histories. Women may stop using a method of contraception for a number of reasons; this paper describes how one can control for correlations between the outcomes of repeated spells of contraceptive use. (CHINA, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, CONTRACEPTION CONTINUATION, METHODOLOGY, STOCHASTIC MODELS)
97.09.3 - English - Siân L. CURTIS, DHS Program, Macro International Inc., 11785 Beltsville Drive, Calverton, MD 20705 (U.S.A.) (E-mail : curtis@macroint.com)
The impact of postpartum redundant use of contraception on contraceptive failure rates (p. 24-34)
Redundant use of contraception occurs when periods of contraceptive use overlap with periods of reduced fecundity, and will downwardly bias estimates of contraceptive failure rates. This paper investigates this bias using calendar data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. The paper presents unadjusted and adjusted 12-month failure rates for each of nine countries. The impact of redundant use on failure rates is generally modest. It tends to be greater in Indonesia, however, where both the incidence and the duration of overlap are relatively large. (INDONESIA, CONTRACEPTION FAILURES, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, INFERTILE PERIOD, METHODOLOGY)
97.09.4 - English - William H. FREY and Reynolds FARLEY, Population Studies Center, The University of Michigan, 1225 South University Av., Ann Arbor, MI 48104-2590 (U.S.A.) (E-mail : william.frey@um.cc.umich.edu)
Latino, Asian and Black segregation in U.S. metropolitan areas: Are multiethnic metros different? (p. 35-50)
This study examines 1990 residential segregation levels and 1980-1990 changes in segregation for Latinos, Asians, and blacks in U.S. metropolitan areas. It also evaluates the effect of emerging multi ethnic metropolitan area contexts for these segregation patterns. While black segregation levels are still well above those for Latinos and Asians, there is some trend toward convergence over the decade. More than half of the areas increased their Latino segregation levels over the 1980s, and almost three-fourths increased their Asian segregation levels. In contrast, black segregation levels decreased in 88% of metropolitan areas. Multiethnic metropolitan area context is shown to be important for internal segregation dynamics. Black segregation levels are lower, and were more likely to decline in multiethnic metropolitan areas and when other minority groups grew faster than blacks. Latino segregation was also more likely to decline in such areas, and declines in both Latino and Asian segregation were greater when other minority groups were growing. These findings point up the potential for greater mixed-race and mixed-ethnicity coresidence in the neighborhoods of multiethnic metropolitan areas. (UNITED STATES, METROPOLIS, ETHNIC MINORITIES, GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION, SEGREGATION)
97.09.5 - English - Dowell MYERS and Seong WOO LEE, School of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0042 (U.S.A.) (E-mail : dowell@rcf.usc.edu)
Immigration cohorts and residential overcrowding in Southern California (p. 51-65)
To what degree do immigrants reduce their high rates of residential overcrowding with increasing length of residence in the United States? This question is addressed through the application of a "double cohort" method that nests birth cohorts within immigration cohorts. This method enables duration of immigration effects to be separated from aging effects as cohorts pass through life course phases, when family sizes may be growing or shrinking. The analysis finds that cohort trends differ sharply from the cross-sectional pattern observed at a single point in time. Cohorts' growth in income is found to contribute substantially to the decline in overcrowding over time. Cohort trends among Hispanic immigrants, however, diverge from those among others, indicating much less decrease in overcrowding and even increases over certain age spans. (UNITED STATES, IMMIGRANTS, GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION, DURATION OF RESIDENCE)
97.09.6 - English - William G. AXINN, Department of Sociology and Population Research Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, 601 Oswald Tower, University Park, PA 16802 (U.S.A.), and Arland THORNTON, Institute for Social Research and Department of Sociology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor (U.S.A.) (E-mail : axinn@pop.psu.edu)
The influence of parents' marital dissolutions on children's attitudes toward family formation (p. 66-81)
We investigate the influence of parents' marital dissolutions on their children's attitudes toward several dimensions of family formation. Hypotheses focus on the role of parents' attitudes as a mechanism linking parents' behaviour to their children's attitudes. We test these hypotheses using intergenerational panel data that include measures of parents' attitudes taken directly from parents and measures of children's attitudes taken directly from children. Results demonstrate strong effects of parental divorce, remarriage, and widowhood on children's attitudes toward premarital sex, cohabitation, marriage, childbearing, and divorce. The results also show that parents' own attitudes link their behaviour to their children's attitudes, although substantial effects of parental behaviour remain after controlling for parents' attitudes. (PARENTS, CHILDREN, ATTITUDE, BEHAVIOUR, DISSOLUTION OF MARRIAGE, FAMILY FORMATION)
97.09.7 - English - Leslie A. WHITTINGTON, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (U.S.A.), and H. Elizabeth PETERS, Department of Consumer Economics and Housing, Cornell University (U.S.A.) (E-mail : lesliew@arec.umd.edu)
Economic incentives for financial and residential independance (p. 82-97)
In this paper we examine the impact of the resources of children and of their parents' on the children's transition to residential and financial independence. Previous studies of this transition focused primarily on the impact of family structure and parent-child relationships on the decision to leave home, but much less is known about the role of economic factors in the transition to independence. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) for the period 1968-1988, we estimate discrete-hazard models of the probability of achieving residential and financial independence. We find that the child's wage opportunities and the parent's income are important determinants of establishing independence. The effect of parental income changes with the child's age. We also find some evidence that federal tax policy influences the decision to become independent, although the magnitude of this effect is quite small. (UNITED STATES, PARENTS, CHILDREN, INCOME, EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION)
97.09.8 - English - Pradip K. MUHURI, World Health Organization, CH-1211 Genève 27 (Suisse) (E-mail : muhurip@who.ch)
Estimating seasonality effects on child mortality in Matlab, Bangladesh (p. 98-110)
This paper estimates the net effect of seasonality on child mortality in Matlab. Results suggest that childhood mortality was well above the average monthly level in the hot, dry month of april and in November the first harvest month of the aman crop. It was found to be remarkably low in the postharvest months of February and March, and also in August. During the hungry months of September and October, children were at a considerably increased risk of mortality, particularly from diarrheal diseases, if mothers had no schooling, but this was not the case if mothers had schooling. The protective effect of the Matlab interventions on childhood death from diarrheal diseases was also greater during the hungry months than during other months of the year. (BANGLADESH, CHILD MORTALITY, SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS)
97.09.9 - English - Donald J. TREIMAN, Matthew McKEEVER and Eva FODOR, Department of Sociology, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90024 (U.S.A.) (E-mail : treiman@dudley.sscnet.ucla.edu)
Racial differences in occupational status and income in South Africa, 1980 and 1991 (p. 111-132)
Using data on employed men from the 1980 and 1991 South African Censuses, we analyze the determinants of occupational status and income. Whites are found to have much higher occupational status, and especially income, than members of other racial groups. Most of the racial differentials in occupational status can be explained by racial differences in the personal assets that determine occupational attainment (especially education), but only a much smaller fraction of the White/non-White income differential can be so explained. Despite a modest reduction between 1980 and 1991 in the role of race in socioeconomic attainment, the overall picture shows more stability than change. (SOUTH AFRICA, RACIAL DISCRIMINATION, SOCIO-ECONOMIC GROUPS, INCOME)
MAY 1996 - VOLUME 33, NUMBER 2
97.09.10 - English - Herbert L. SMITH, S. Philip MORGAN and Tanya KOROPECKYJ-COX, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphie, PA 19104-6298 (U.S.A.) (E-mail : hsmith@pop.upenn.edu)
A decomposition of trends in the nonmarital fertility ratio of Blacks and Whites in the United States, 1960-1992 (p. 141-151)
We use a method of standardization and decomposition developed by Das Gupta to update Smith and Cutright's analysis of demographic factors responsible for increases in the nonmarital fertility ratio (illegitimacy ratio) among blacks and whites in the United States. We create standardized rates for each year between 1960 and 1992, and consistent, exhaustive decompositions of the nonmarital fertility ratio for any interval during this period in terms of four components: (1) the age distribution of women of reproductive age, (2) the proportion of women unmarried at each age, (3) the age-specific birth rates of married women, and (4) the age-specific birth rates of unmarried women. Nonmarital fertility ratios are much higher among blacks than among whites, but both increased monotonically from 1960 to 1992. During the last 10 years, each increased by nearly 10 percentage points. Increases in the proportion of women not married, at all ages, account for the preponderance of the increase in black nonmarital fertility ratios. Increasing rates of unmarried childbearing, however, have played a role during the most recent decade (1983-1992). For whites, from 1960 until 1975, declines in marital fertility were most important in producing increases in the proportion of children born out of wedlock. Since then, these proportions have increased primarily because of increases in unmarried women's birth rates, and secondarily because of declines in the proportion of women who are married. These trends are consistent with arguments that emphasize declining economic incentives to marry and reduced access to, and acceptability of abortion. (UNITED STATES, WHITES, BLACKS, ILLEGITIMATE BIRTHS, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, FERTILITY TRENDS)
97.09.11 - English - Eric R. JENSEN, Program on Population, East-West Center and Economics Department, College of William and Mary, P.O. Box 8795, Williamsburg, VA 23187-8795 (U.S.A.) (E-mail : erjens@malthus.morton.wm.edu)
The fertility impact of alternative family planning distribution channels in Indonesia (p. 153-165)
Clinic-based distribution of contraceptive commodities is expensive per unit distributed. This situation has fueled the search for alternative means of delivery. Comparing the performance of alternatives is straight forward if the output measure is a count of commodities distributed, but comparing actual fertility impacts is another matter. The author uses data from the 1991 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey to assess the extent of difference among the eventual fertility outcomes of users supplied with similar commodities through varying sources. When the "modern" methods of pill, IUD, and injection are grouped together, the fertility of users supplied with these commodities differs markedly according to their source of supply. The author finds little evidence for self-selecting of users into supply channels. This result implies that fertility differentials by source are likely due to characteristics of the distribution channels. (INDONESIA, CONTRACEPTIVE DISTRIBUTION, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY)
97.09.12 - English - Namvar ZOHOORI and Barry M. POPKIN, Carolina Population Center, CB# 8120, University Square East, University of North Carolina at Chapell Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27516 (U.S.A.) (E-mail : namvar_zohoori@unc.edu)
Longitudinal analysis of the effects of infant-feeding practices on postpartum amenorrhea (p. 167-180)
The Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey is used to examine the effect of various components of infant-feeding patterns on return of menses postpartum. The results show that factors such as active suckling, the use of two breasts versus one, breast-feeding on demand versus on a fixed schedule, and the feeding of other milks and of nonnutritive or low-caloric other liquids can be important under selected circumstances. Discrete-time logistic hazards modeling is used to estimate the weekly probability of return to menses. (PHILIPPINES, POST-PARTUM AMENORRHOEA, INFANT FEEDING)
97.09.13 - English - Theodore JOYCE and Robert KAESTNER, Baruch College and National Bureau of Economic Research, 50 East 42nd Street, 17th Floor, New York, NY 10017-5405 (U.S.A.) (E-mail : tjjbb@cunyvm.cuny.edu)
The effect of expansions in medicaid income eligibility on abortion (p. 181-192)
In this paper we examine the effect of expansions in Medicaid income eligibility on abortion, using individual-level data from South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia. The results suggest that for unmarried nonblack women with less than a high school degree, expansions of income eligibility lowered the probability of abortion by two to five percentage points. Most of the impact of the Medicaid expansions on abortion occurred in the first round of expansions from approximately 45% of the federal poverty level to 100%. For black unmarried women with less than a high school degree, we generally find no effect of expansions in Medicaid income eligibility on abortion. (UNITED STATES, SOCIAL SECURITY, ABORTION, RACES)
97.09.14 - English - Samuel H. PRESTON, Irma T. ELO, Ira ROSENWAIKE and Mark HILL, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphie, PA 19104-6298 (U.S.A.) (E-mail : spreston@pop.upenn.edu)
African-American mortality at older ages: Results of a matching study (p. 193-209)
In this paper we investigate the quality of age reporting on death certificates of elderly African-Americans. We link a sample of death certificates of persons age 65+ in 1985 to records for the same individuals in U.S. censuses of 1900, 1910, and 1920 and to records of the Social Security Administration. The ages at death reported on death certificates are too young on average. Errors are greater for women than for men. Despite systematic underreporting of age at death, too many deaths are registered at ages 95+. This excess reflects an age distribution of deaths that declines steeply with age, so that the base for upward transfers into an age category is much larger than the base for transfers downward and out. When corrected ages at death are used to estimate age-specific death rates, African-American mortality rates increase substantially above age 85 and the racial "crossover" in mortality disappears. Uncertainty about white rates at ages 95+, however, prevents a decisive racial comparison at the very oldest ages. (UNITED STATES, AGED, RACES, AGE AT DEATH, MORTALITY MEASUREMENT)
97.09.15 - English - Narayan SASTRY, RAND, 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 (U.S.A.) (E-mail : narayan_sastry@rand.org)
Community characteristics, individual and household attributes, and child survival in Brazil (p. 211-229)
This paper presents an analysis of the relationship between community characteristics, household attributes, and child survival in Brazil. The principal objectives are to investigate how the social and environmental context in which a child is raised affects his or her survival chances, and to analyze how household variables modify the effects of community characteristics. The interaction effects we examine help to explain the effects of community characteristics on child survival chances by illuminating the most likely pathways through which these covariates operate. This information is also useful for predicting who is most likely to benefit from public policies to improve community infrastructure, education, and health care. (BRAZIL, CHILD SURVIVAL, LOCAL COMMUNITIES, HOUSEHOLD, MORTALITY TRENDS)
97.09.16 - English - Anne R. PEBLEY, RAND, Santa Monica, CA (U.S.A.), Noreen GOLDMAN and Germán RODRÍGUEZ, Office of Population Research, Princeton University (U.S.A.) (E-mail : pebley@rand.org)
Prenatal and delivery care and childhood immunization in Guatemala: Do family and community matter? (p. 231-247)
In this paper we investigate family choices about pregnancy related care and the use of childhood immunization. Estimates obtained from a multilevel logistic model indicate that use of formal (or "modern") health services differs substantially by ethnicity, by social and economic factors, and by availability of health services. The results also show that family and community membership are very important determinants of the use of health care, even in the presence of controls for a large number of observed characteristics of individuals, families, and communities. (GUATEMALA, PRENATAL CARE, IMMUNIZATION, MATERNAL AND CHILD HEALTH, FAMILY, COMMUNITIES)
97.09.17 - English - Jorge DURAND, Departamento de Estudios sobre los Moviementos Sociales, Universidad de Guadalajara, Av. Alcalde y Maestros, Puerto No. 1, Guadalajara, Jalisco, 44160 (Mexique), William KANDEL, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphie (U.S.A.), Emilio A. PARRADO, Population Research Center, University of Chicago (U.S.A.), and Douglas S. MASSEY, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphie (U.S.A.) (E-mail : jdurand@fuentes.csh.udg.mx)
International migration and development in Mexican communities (p. 249-264)
The theoretical and empirical literature generally regards international migration as producing a cycle of dependency and stunted development in sending communities. Most migrants' earnings are spent on consumption; few funds are channeled into productive investment. We argue that this view is misleading because it ignores the conditions under which productive investment is likely to be possible and profitable. We analyze the determinants of migrants' savings and remittance decisions, using variables defined at the individual, household, community, and macroeconomic levels. We identify the conditions under which U.S. earnings are repatriated to Mexico as remittances and savings, and indicate the factors leading to their productive investment. (UNITED STATES, MEXICO, IMMIGRANTS, INCOME, REMITTANCES, INVESTMENTS)
97.09.18 - English - Stanley K. SMITH and Christopher McCARTY, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, 221 Matherly Hall, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-7140 (U.S.A.) (E-mail : stans@bebr.cba.ufl.edu)
Demographic effects of natural disasters: A case study of hurricane Andrew (p. 265-275)
Many studies have considered the economic, social, and psychological effects of hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, and other natural disasters, but few have considered their demographic effects. In this paper we describe and evaluate a method for measuring the effects of Hurricane Andrew on the housing stock and population distribution in Dade County, Florida. Using information collected through sample surveys and from other data sources, we investigate the extent of housing damages, the number of people forced out of their homes, where they went, how long they stayed, and whether they returned to their prehurricane residences. We conclude that more than half the housing units in Dade County were damaged by Hurricane Andrew; that more than 353,000 people were forced to leave their homes, at least temporarily; and that almost 40,000 people left the county permanently as a direct result of the hurricane. We believe that this study will provide methodological guidance to analysts studying the demographic effects of other large-scale natural disasters. (UNITED STATES, NATURAL DISASTERS, HOUSING, REFUGEES, EMIGRATION)
AUGUST 1996 - VOLUME 33, NUMBER 3
97.09.19 - English - Ronald R. RINDFUSS, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, CB# 8120 University Square, 124 W. Franklin St., Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997 (U.S.A.), e-mail : rindfuss.cpc@mhs.unc.edu, S. Philip MORGAN and Kate OFFUTT, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphie (U.S.A.)
Education and the changing age pattern of American fertility: 1963-1989 (p. 277-290)
Using pooled data from the 1980, 1985, and 1990 Current Population Surveys, we describe fertility trends by age and education for the period 1963-1989. Interest focuses on whether the effects of education have changed across this period. We show that women with college degrees experienced dramatic shifts toward later ages of childbearing. This shift is consistent with arguments we develop about the increased opportunity for women to pursue careers and about changes in the availability of child care. (UNITED STATES, FERTILITY TRENDS, AGE-SPECIFIC RATE, LEVELS OF EDUCATION)
97.09.20 - English - David A. LAM, Department of Economics and Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (U.S.A.), e-mail : davidl@umich.edu, and Jeffrey A. MIRON, Department of Economics, Boston University (U.S.A.)
The effects of temperature on human fertility (p. 291-305)
Monthly birth and temperature data for a variety of states and countries are used to estimate the effect of short-run temperature fluctuations on fertility. Regressions of monthly births on a flexible specification of lagged monthly temperature show that temperature has quantitatively important effects on both seasonal and nonseasonal variation in births. Summer temperature extremes reduce conceptions in the southern United States, explaining a substantial part of the observed seasonal birth pattern. Extreme cold shows no evidence of affecting conceptions. The results also show significant seasonality in births even after accounting for temperature. Controls for monthly temperature do not explain the persistent spring peak in births in northern Europe. This finding suggests that other factors play an important role. (FERTILITY, CLIMATE, SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)
97.09.21 - English - Kenneth J. MEIER, Donald P. HAIDER-MARKEL, Anthony J. STANISLAWSKI, Department of Political Science, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Box 413, Milwaukee, WI 53201 (U.S.A.), e-mail : meier@csd.uwm.edu, and Deborah R. McFARLANE, Department of Political Science, University of New Mexico (U.S.A.)
The impact of state-level restrictions on abortion (p. 307-312)
This research examines 23 different laws passed by state governments in an effort to restrict the number of abortions. It assesses both laws passed and laws actually enforced after the Supreme Court permitted states to restrict access to abortion in 1989. None of the policy actions by state governments has had a significant impact on the incidence of abortion from 1982 to 1992. Abortion rates continue to reflect past abortion rates, the number of abortion providers, whether the state funds abortions for Medicaid-eligible women, urbanise, and racial composition of the population. Recent restrictive policies have not affected these trends. (UNITED STATES, LEGAL ABORTION, LEGISLATION, EVALUATION)
97.09.22 - English - Lee A. LILLARD and Constantijn W. A. PANIS, RAND, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 (U.S.A.), e-mail : lee_lillard@rand.org
Marital status and mortality: The role of health (p. 313-327)
Prior literature has shown that married men live longer than unmarried men. Possible explanations are that marriage protects its incumbents or that healthier men select themselves into marriage. Protective effects, however, introduce the possibility of adverse selection: Those in poor health have an incentive to marry. In this paper we explore the role of health in explaining mortality and marriage patterns, and distinguish protective effects from two types of selection effects. We find adverse selection on the basis of health (unhealthy men tend to (re)marry sooner) and positive selection on the basis of unmeasured factors that both promote good health and encourage marriage. (DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, MARRIAGE, HEALTH)
97.09.23 - English - Stan BECKER, Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205-2179 (U.S.A.), e-mail : sbecker@phnet.sph.jhu.edu, Youssef WAHEEB, Department of Community Medicine, Suez Canal University (Egypte), Bothaina EL-DEEB, Child and Women Research Division, Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (Egypte), Nagwa KHALLAF, ARI Division, Child Survival Project, Ministry of Health (Egypt), and Robert BLACK, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore (U.S.A.)
Estimating the completeness of under-5 death registration in Egypt (p. 329-339)
To evaluate the completeness of registration of infant and child deaths in Egypt, reinterviews were conducted with families who had reported a death of a child under age 5 in the five years before the survey for two national surveys recently conducted in Egypt: the United Nations PAPCHILD survey of 1990-1991 and the Egyptian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) of 1992. The survey instrument included questions regarding notification of the death at the local health bureau. If the family said the death had been notified, separate employees searched the health bureau records for the registration. Overall 57% of infant deaths were reported as notified and 68% of those death reports were found; the corresponding figures for child deaths were 89% and 74%. Using the percentage reported as notified as an estimate for completeness of registration, we adjusted upward the national infant and child mortality rates from registration data, giving values of 73 per 1,000 for infant mortality and 99 for 5q0, for the period 1987-1990. These values are approximately 20% above the corresponding direct estimates from the PAPCHILD and EDHS surveys. (EGYPT, INFANT MORTALITY, CHILD MORTALITY, MORTALITY MEASUREMENT, UNDERREGISTRATION)
97.09.24 - English - Fred C. PAMPEL, Population Program, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0484 (U.S.A.), e-mail : Pampel@adder.colorado.edu
Cohort size and age-specific suicide rates: A contingent relationship (p. 341-355)
Trends in age-specific suicide rates relate to debates about the consequences of population aging and changes in cohort size for social well-being. Easterlin argues that large cohort size increases suicide rates by reducing relative income; Preston claims that suicide rates fall in large cohorts with high levels of political and social power. To integrate these competing arguments, this paper uses aggregate data on 18 high-income nations from 1953 to 1986 to demonstrate that the direction and strength of the relationship between cohort size and suicide depend on (1) age of the cohort, (2) gender (3) national context, and (4) time period. The results show that large cohort size raises suicide for the young and middle-aged, but reduces it for the elderly. Also, the effects of cohort size prove stronger for men than for women, for nations with less collectivist institutions than for nations with more collectivist institutions, and for the 1950s and 1960s than for the 1970s and 1980s. (SUICIDE, GENERATION EFFECT, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS, COHORT ANALYSIS)
97.09.25 - English - David P. LINDSTROM, Population Studies and Training Center, Box 1916, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (U.S.A.), e-mail : DL@Maxcy2.Maxcy.Brown.edu
Economic opportunity in Mexico and return migration from the United States (p. 357-374)
The author analyzes the influence of the economic characteristics of origin area on trip duration for Mexican migrants in the United States. He argues that migrants from economically dynamic areas in Mexico with favorable opportunities for employment and small capital investment have a larger incentive to stay in the United States longer and to withstand the psychic costs of separation from family and friends than do migrants from economically stagnant areas in Mexico, where the productive uses of savings are severely limited. In line with this argument we should expect investment opportunities in migrants' origin areas to be associated positively with migrants' trip duration in the United States. To test this hypothesis the author uses individual- and household-level data on U.S. migration experience collected in 13 Mexican communities. Evidence from parametric hazards models supports the idea that economic characteristics of origin areas influence the molivations and strategies of Mexican nrigrants in the United States. (MEXICO, UNITED STATES, REGIONS, EMIGRATION, RETURN MIGRATION, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS)
97.09.26 - English - Zai LIANG, Department of Sociology, Queens College/CUNY, 65-30 Kissena Boulevard, Flushing, NY 11367-1597 (U.S.A.), e-mail : liang@pixie.soc.qc.edu, and Michael J. WHITE, Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (U.S.A.)
Internal migration in China, 1950-1988 (p. 375-384)
This paper examines the long-term patterns of migration within China between 1950 and 1988. The analysis uses data from China's 1988 2/1,000 Fertility and Birth Control Survey, which asks respondents about their most recent interprovincial move. The results suggest that long-term migration patterns can be explained by political and economic changes in China. We argue that the approaches we introduce can offer significant insight into long-term migration patterns for countries where historical data on migration are unavailable or unreliable. (CHINA, INTERNAL MIGRATION, MIGRATION DETERMINANTS)
97.09.27 - English - Steven GARASKY, Human Development and Family Studies, Iowa State University, 1089 LeBaron Hall, Ames, IA 50011 (U.S.A.), e-mail : sgarasky@iastate.edu, and Daniel R. MEYER, Institute for Research on Poverty, University of Wisconsin-Madison (U.S.A.)
Reconsidering the increase in father-only families (p. 385-393)
Previously reported estimates of rapid growth rates among father-only families did not account for cohabitation. An explicit treatment of cohabitation removes about half of the presumed growth. Nevertheless, we find that the number of father-only families grew at more than double the rate of mother-only families during the 1980s. Decomposition analyses show that the largest factor associated with the increase is that fathers now head a greater proportion of all formerly married single-parent families with children. Although the share of single-parent families headed by fathers is larger in 1990 than in 1980 even after controlling for cohabitation, it is smaller than in 1970. (UNITED STATES, ONE-PARENT FAMILY, FATHER, COHABITATION)
NOVEMBER 1996 - VOLUME 33, NUMBER 4
97.09.28 - English - Douglas S. MASSEY, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphie, PA 19104-6298 (U.S.A.), e-mail : doug_massey@pop.upenn.edu
The age of extremes: Concentrated affluence and poverty in the twenty-first century (p. 395-412)
Urbanization, rising income inequality, and increasing class segregation have produced a geographic concentration of affluence and poverty throughout the world, creating a radical change in the geographic basis of human society. As the density of poverty rises in the environment of the world's poor, so will their exposure to crime, disease, violence, and family disruption. Meanwhile the spatial concentration of affluence will enhance the benefits and privileges of the rich. In the twenty-first century the advantages and disadvantages of one's class position will be compounded and reinforced through ecological mechanisms made possible by the geographic concentration of affluence and poverty, creating a deeply divided and increasingly violent social world. (WORLD, WEALTH, POVERTY, HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, PROJECTIONS)
97.09.29 - English - Nancy S. LANDALE, Population Research Institute, 601 Oswald Tower, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (U.S.A.), e-mail : landale@pop.psu.edu, and Susan M. HAUAN, Institute for Research on Poverty, University of Wisconsin-Madison (U.S.A.)
Migration and premarital childbearing among Puerto Rican women (p. 429-442)
This paper examines the relationship between migration and premarital childbearing in a highly migratory Latino subgroup, Puerto Rican women. Using pooled origin-destination data from surveys conducted in Puerto Rico and in the New York metropolitan area, we find that first- and second-generation migrants to the U.S. mainland face substantially higher risks of conceiving and bearing a first child before marriage than do nonmigrants in Puerto Rico. This pattern is due largely to the relatively early transition to sexual activity among mainland women. Given the negative long-term consequences of premarital childbearing for women and their children, our findings call into question the assumption that migrants necessarily experience only positive outcomes as a result of the assimilation process.(PORTO RICO, ETATS-UNIS, FEMME, MIGRANT, NAISSANCE PRENUPTIALE, COMPORTEMENT SEXUEL PRENUPTIAL)
97.09.30 - English - John R. LOGAN, Richard D. ALBA, Tom McNULTY and Brian FISHER, Department of Sociology, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, NY 12222 (U.S.A.), e-mail : jrl40@cnsibm.albany.edu
Making a place in the metropolis: Locational attainment in cities and suburbs (p. 443-453)
What accounts for the differences in the kinds of communities within the metropolis in which members of different racial and ethnic groups live? Do socioeconomic advancement and acculturation provide greater integration with whites or access to more desirable locations for minority-group members? Are these effects the same for Asians or Hispanics as for blacks? Does suburbanization offer a step toward greater equality in the housing market, or do minorities find greater discrimination in the suburban housing market? Data from 1980 for five large metropolitan regions are used to estimate "locational-attainment models", which evaluate the effects of group members' individual attributes on two measures of the character of their living environment: the socioeconontic standing (median household income) and racial composition (proportion non-Hispanic white) of the census tract where they reside. Separate models predict these outcomes for whites, blacks, Hispanics, and Asians. Net of the effects of individuals' background characteristics, whites live in census tracts with the highest average proportion of white residents and the highest median household income. They are followed by Asians and Hispanics, and -- at substantially lower levels -- blacks. Large overall differences exist between city and suburban locations; yet the gap between whites and others is consistently lower in the suburbs than in the cities of these five metropolitan regions.(UNITED STATES, URBAN SOCIOLOGY, GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION, HOUSING, ETHNIC MINORITIES)
97.09.31 - English - Kimberlee A. SHAUMAN and Yu XIE, Population Studies Center, Department of Sociology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1382 (U.S.A.), e-mail : kima@umich.edu, yuxie@umich.edu
Geographic mobility of scientists: Sex differences and family constraints (p. 455-468)
Women scientists are much more likely than men scientists to be in two-career marriages. This study examines the argument that the higher prevalence of two-career marriages among women scientists presents a significant impediment to their geographic mobility. Three hypotheses are developed and tested. First, scieintists in two-career families are less likely to migrate than scientists in one-career families. Second, the effect of two-career marriages on the probability of migration differs with gender; women are affected more negatively. Third, the effect of children on the probability of migration differs with gender; women are affected more negatively. The empirical work uses a data set of doctoral scientists extracted from the 5% Public Use Microdata Sample from the 1990 census. The first two hypotheses are not confirmed by the empirical results, but we find evidence supporting the third. Family constraints on women scientists' careers generally appear to be weak, but become acute when they have children. (UNITED STATES, RESEARCH WORKERS, OCCUPATIONS, LABOUR MOBILITY, SEX DIFFERENTIALS)
97.09.32 - English - W. Parker FRISBIE, Population Research Center, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712 (U.S.A.), e-mail : frisbie@prc.utexas.edu, Douglas FORBES, Southwest Texas State University (U.S.A.), and Starling G. PULLUM, The University of Texas at Austin (U.S.A.)
Compromised birth outcomes and infant mortality among racial and ethnic groups (p. 469-481)
Research based on hospital records demonstrates that many births classified as normal according to conventional demographic measurement are intrauterine growth-retarded (IUGR) when evaluated clinically; also, in addition to birth weight and gestational age, it is necessary to focus on a third dimension, maturity, in analyses of birth outcomes. Although clinical studies allow more precise classification, the small number of cases tends to result in unreliable estimates of rates and in loss of generalizability. The fetal growth ratio, a measure recently shown to be a valid proxy for maturity, is used here to develop a classification system based on combinations of weight, gestational age, and maturity, which we apply in a comparative analysis of a large data set. The results show large differences in the distribution of compromised births across racial and ethnic groups, as well as significant race/ethnic differentials in the risk of infant mortality associated with adverse outcomes. (UNITED STATES, HIGH RISK PREGNANCY, INFANT MORTALITY, ETHNIC GROUPS, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)
97.09.33 - English - Thomas L. HANSON, Department of Child and Family Studies, College for Human Development, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13244 (U.S.A.), e-mail : tlhanson@mailbox.syr.edu, Irwin GARFINKEL, The Columbia University School of Social Work, Columbia University (U.S.A.), Sara S. McLANAHAN, Office of Population Research, Princeton University, Princeton (U.S.A.), and Cynthia K. MILLER, Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation (U.S.A.)
Trends in child support outcomes (p. 483-496)
This paper examines trends in child support award rates, award amounts, and receipts. We investigate four hypotheses that have been proposed to explain the downward trend in these outcomes during the 1980s: (1) changes in the demographic composition of the population eligible for child support, (2) increases in mothers' income, (3) decreases in fathers' income, and (4) inflation. Our results indicate that trends in nonmarital fertility can explain much of the decline in award rates. The steady downward trend in fathers' incomes during the 1980s also explains a considerable portion of the decline in award rates, award amounts, and receipts. Our results are also consistent with the notion that persistent money illusion is responsible for the decline in real child support awards. (UNITED STATES, ALIMONY, CHILDREN, INCOME)
97.09.34 - English - Greg J. DUNCAN, Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, 2040 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208-4100 (U.S.A.), e-mail : gregduncan@nwu.edu, Johanne BOISJOLY, Université du Québec à Rimouski (Canada), and Timothy SMEEDING, Syracuse University (U.S.A.)
Economic mobility of young workers in the 1970s and 1980s (p. 497-509)
This paper uses longitudinal data to estimate cohort changes in the earnings trajectories of young adult males. Levels of earnings are uniformly lower for male workers turning 21 between 1980 and 1991 than in 1970-1979, although rates of earnings growth are roughly comparable. Among males turning 21 before 1980, six in 10 (60%) of all men and seven in 10 (71%) college-educated men attained earnings levels by age 30 that were at least twice the poverty level. Corresponding fractions for workers turning 21 between 1980 and 1991 were considerably lower (42% and 56%). Recent cohorts from all demographic subgroups appeared to have more difficulty than older cohorts in attaining middle-class earnings. (UNITED STATES, YOUNG WORKERS, INCOME, COHORT ANALYSIS)
97.09.35 - English - Paula ENGLAND, Lori L. REID, Department of Sociology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 (U.S.A.), e-mail : england@u.arizona.edu, and Barbara STANEK KILBOURNE, Department of Sociology, Vanderbilt University (U.S.A.)
The effect of the sex composition of jobs on starting wages in an organization: Findings from the NLSY (p. 511-521)
We show that individuals in a job with a higher percentage of females earn lower starting wages with an employing organization. This holds true with controls for individuals' human capital, job demands for skill or difficult working conditions, and detailed industry. We use a measure of sex composition that applies to detailed jobs: cells in a three-digit census occupation by three-digit census industry matrix. We use pooled panel data from the 1979-1987 waves of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. The unit of analysis is the spell -- the time in which a person worked for one organization. The dependent variable is the first wage in the spell. We use models with fixed-effects to control for unmeasured, unchanging individual characteristics; we also show results from OLS and weighted models for comparison. The negative effect on wages of the percentage female in one's job is robust across procedures for black women, white women, and white men. For black men the sign is always negative but the coefficient is often nonsignificant. (UNITED STATES, SEXUAL DIVISION OF LABOUR, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, WAGES)
97.09.36 - English - Jeff TAYMAN, San Diego Association of Governments, 401 B. Street, Suite 800, San Diego, CA 92101 (U.S.A.), e-mail : jta@sandag.cog.ca.us, and David A. SWANSON, Center for Population Research and Census, Portland State University (U.S.A.)
On the utility of population forecasts (p. 523-528)
Many customers demand population forecasts, particularly for small areas. Although the forecast evaluation literature is extensive, it is dominated by a focus on accuracy. We go beyond accuracy by examining the concept of forecast utility in an evaluation of a sample of 2,709 counties and census tracts. We find that forecasters provide "value-added" knowledge for areas experiencing rapid change or areas with relatively large populations. For other areas, reduced value is more common than added value. Our results suggest that new forecasting strategies and methods such as composite modeling may substantially improve forecast utility. (POPULATION PROJECTIONS, EVALUATION, METHODOLOGY)
FEBRUARY 1997 - VOLUME 34, NUMBER 1
97.09.37 - English - S. Jay OLSHANSKY, Department of Medicine, University of Chicago, 5841 S. Maryland Avenue, MC 6098, Chicago, IL 60637 (U.S.A.), and Bruce A. CARNES, Argonne National Laboratory (U.S.A.) E-mail : sjayo@cicero.spc.uchicago.edu
Ever since Gompertz (p. 1-15)
In 1825 British actuary Benjamin Gompertz made a simple but important observation that a law of geometrical progression pervades large portions of different tables of mortality for humans. The simple formula he derived describing the exponential rise in death rates between sexual maturity and old age is commonly referred to as the Gompertz equation -- a formula that remains a valuable tool in demography and in other scientific disciplines. Gompertz's observation of a mathematical regularity in the life table led him to believe in the presence of a law of mortality that explained why common age patterns of death exist. This law of mortality has captured the attention of scientists for the past 170 years because it was the first among what are now several reliable empirical tools for describing the dying-out process of many living organisms during a significant portion of their life spans. In this paper we review the literature on Gompertz's law of mortality and discuss the importance of his observations and insights in light of research on aging that has taken place since then. (METHODOLOGY, LIFE TABLES, MATHEMATICAL MODELS)
97.09.38 - English - James R. CAREY, Department of Entomology, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (U.S.A.). E-mail: jrcarey@ucdavis.edu
What demographers can learn from fruit fly actuarial models and biology (p. 17-30)
Historically, demographers have viewed the results of actuarial studies of nonhuman species, particularly those on invertebrates such as fruit flies, as largely irrelevant to investigations on human populations. In this paper I present life table data from large scale studies on the Mediterranean fruit fly, and show that they provide important insights into fundamental aspects of mortality relevant to human populations: the trajectory of mortality at older ages, sex mortality differentials, the concept of maximal life span, and demographic heterogeneity and selection. An overriding theme of the paper is the need for demographers to acquire a heightened awareness of new developments in biology including areas such as evolutionary ecology, experimental demography, and molecular medicine. (ACTUARIAL CALCULATION, ANIMAL DEMOGRAPHY, LIFE TABLES, DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH)
97.09.39 - English - Anatoli I. YASHIN and Ivan A. IACHINE, Odense University, Medical School, CHS, Winslowparken 17,1, DK 5000, Odense C (Denmark). E-mail: a.yashin@chsmed.ou.dk
How frailty models can be used in evaluating longevity limits (p. 31-48)
In this paper we discuss an approach to the analysis of mortality and longevity limits when survival data on related individuals with and without observed covariates are available. The approach combines the ideas of demography and survival analysis with methods of quantitative genetics and genetic epidemiology. It allows us to analyze the genetic structure of frailty in the Cox-type hazard model with random effects. We demonstrate the implementation of this strategy to survival data on Danish twins. We then evaluate the resulting lower bounds for biological limits of human longevity. Finally, we discuss the limitations of this approach and directions of further research. (METHODOLOGY, LIFE SPAN, POPULATION GENETICS, THEORETICAL MODELS)
97.09.40 - English - Robert W. FOGEL and Dora L. COSTA, University of Chicago, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1101 E. 58th Street, Chicago, IL 60637 (U.S.A.). E-mail : imok@tao.cpe.uchicago.edu
A theory of technophysio evolution, with some implications for forecasting population, health care costs, and pension costs (p. 49-66)
We argue that over the past 300 years human physiology has been undergoing profound environmentally induced changes made possible by numerous advances in technology. These changes, which we call technophysio evolution, increased body size by over 50%, and greatly improved the robustness and capacity of vital organ systems. Because technophysio evolution is still ongoing, it is relevant to forecasts of longevity and morbidity and, therefore, to forecasts of the size of the elderly population and pension and health care costs. (EVOLUTION, PHYSIOLOGY, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, AGED, POPULATION PROJECTIONS)
97.09.41 - English - Ronald LEE, Demography and Economics, University of California-Berkeley, 2232 Piedmont Ave., Berkeley, CA 94720 (U.S.A.), and Shripad TULJAPURKAR, Mountain View Research (U.S.A.). E-mail : rlee@demog.berkeley.edu
Death and taxes: Longer life, consumption, and social security (p. 67-81)
We analyze in three steps the influence of the projected mortality decline on the long run finances of the Social Security System. First, on a theoretical level, mortality decline adds person years of life which are distributed across the life cycle. The interaction of this distribution with the age distribution of labor earnings minus consumption, or of taxes minus benefits, partially determines the corresponding steady state financial consequences of mortality decline. The effect of mortality decline on population growth rates also matters, but is negligible in low mortality populations. Second, examination of past mortality trends in the United States and of international trends in low mortality populations, suggests that mortality will decline faster than foreseen by the Social Security Administration's forecasts. Third, we combine the work of the first two parts in dynamic simulations to examine the implications of mortality decline and of alternative forecasts of mortality for the finances of the social security system. Also, we use stochastic population forecasts to assess the influence of uncertainty about mortality decline on uncertainty about finances; we find that uncertainty about fertility still has more important implications than uncertainty about mortality, contrary to sensitivity tests in the official forecasts. (UNITED STATES, MORTALITY DECLINE, SOCIAL SECURITY, FINANCING, POPULATION PROJECTIONS)
97.09.42 - English - David A. WISE, Harvard University, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138 (U.S.A.). E-mail : dwise@nber.harvard.edu
Retirement against the demographic trend: More older people living longer, working less, and saving less (p. 83-95)
The American population is aging rapidly and individuals are living longer. Yet Americans are saving less and older workers are leaving the labor force at younger and younger ages. The accelerated drop in labor force participation corresponds roughly to the introduction of Social Security and the adaption of employer-provided pension plans. I have illustrated that Social Security and employer-provided pension plans provide substantial incentive to leave the labor force early. The quantitative effect of this inducement is illustrated by simulating the effects of changes in pension plan and Social Security provisions on the retirement decisions of employees in a large firm, who are covered by a typical defined benefit pension plan. Scheduled Social Security changes would have little effect on the retirement decisions of employees with a typical defined benefit pension plan like the one considered here. But if the pension plan provisions were changed to correspond to the Social Security changes, the effect would be very large. And, although not contemplated by current legislation, it is clear that an increase in the Social Security early retirement age would have a substantial effect on the early retirement rates of the large number of employees not covered by a pension plan. (UNITED STATES, PENSION SCHEMES, AGE AT RETIREMENT, RETIREMENT PENSIONS, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING, SAVINGS)
97.09.43 - English - Angus S. DEATON and Christina H. PAXSON, Research Program in Development Studies, Princeton University, 219 Bendheim Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544-1022 (U.S.A.). E-mail : deaton@wws.princeton.edu; cpaxson@wws.princeton, edu
The effects of economic and population growth on national saving and inequality (p. 97-114)
This is a progress report on ongoing research into the effects of economic and population growth on national saving rates and inequality. The theoretical basis for the investigation is the life cycle model of saving and inequality. We report evidence that is conditional on the validity of the model, as well as evidence that casts doubt on it. Using time series of cross-sectional household surveys from Taiwan, Thailand, Britain, and the United States, we show that it is possible to force a life cycle interpretation on the data on consumption, income, and saving, but that the evidence is not consistent with large rate-of-growth effects, whereby economic and population growth enhances rates of national saving. The well established cross-country link between economic growth and saving cannot be attributed to life cycle saving, nor will changes in economic or population growth exert large effects on saving within individual countries. There is evidence in favor of the life cycle model's prediction that within-cohort inequality of consumption and of total income -- though not necessarily inequality of earnings -- should increase with the age of the cohort. Decreases in the population growth rate redistribute population toward older, more unequal, cohorts, and can increase national inequality. We provide calculations on the magnitude of these effects. (ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, ECONOMIC GROWTH, POPULATION GROWTH, SAVINGS, SOCIAL DIFFERENTIATION)
97.09.44 - English - Lee A. LILLARD, RAND, 1700 Main Street, PO Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 (U.S.A.), and Robert J. WILLIS, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor (U.S.A.). E-mail : Lee_Lillard@rand.org
Motives for intergenerational transfers: Evidence from Malaysia (p. 115-134)
In this paper we discuss a number of hypotheses about motives for intergenerational transfers within the family. We use data on time and money transfers between generations in Malaysia, where there is neither Social Security nor Medicare, to explore these hypotheses empirically. We find evidence supporting the hypotheses that children are an important source of old age security and that old age security is, in part, children's repayment for parental investments in their education. This repayment is partly a function of the children's income and, in the case of females, a function of their spouse's income. We also find evidence supporting the hypotheses that parents and children engage in the exchange of time help for money. (MALAYSIA, AGED, PARENTS, CHILDREN, RESOURCE ALLOCATION)
97.09.45 - English - Kenneth G. MANTON, Eric STALLARD and Larry CORDER, Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University, Box 90088, Durham, NC 27708-0088 (U.S.A.). E-mail : kgm@cds.duke.edu
Changes in the age dependence of mortality and disability: Cohort and other determinants (p. 135-157)
Though the general trend in the United States has been toward increasing life expectancy both at birth and at age 65, the temporal rate of change in life expectancy since 1900 has been variable and often restricted to specific population groups. There have been periods during which the age- and gender-specific risks of particular causes of death have either increased or decreased. These periods partly reflect the persistent effects of population health factors on specific birth cohorts. It is important to understand the ebbs and flows of cause-specific mortality rates because general life expectancy trends are the product of interactions of multiple dynamic period and cohort factors. Consequently, we first review factors potentially affecting cohort health back to 1880 and explore how that history might affect the current and future cohort mortality risks of major chronic diseases. We then examine how those factors affect the age-specific linkage of disability and mortality in three sets of birth cohorts assessed using the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys and Medicare mortality data collected from 1982 to 1991. We find large changes in both mortality and disability in those cohorts, providing insights into what changes might have occurred and into what future changes might be expected. (UNITED STATES, LIFE EXPECTANCY, AGE, GENERATIONS, MORTALITY, PHYSICALLY DISABLED)
97.09.46 - English - James P. SMITH and Raynard KINGTON, RAND, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 (U.S.A.). E-mail : James_Smith@RAND.org
Demographic and economic correlates of health in old age (p. 159-170)
In this paper we examine disparities in the ability to function among older Americans. We place special emphasis on two goals: (1) understanding the quantitatively large socioeconomic status-health gradient, and (2) the persistence in health outcomes over longperiods. We find that there exist strong contemporaneous and long-run feedbacks from health to economic status. In light of these feedbacks, it is important to distinguish among alternative sources of income and the recipient of income in the household. This research also demonstrates that health outcomes at old age are influenced by health attributes of past, concurrent, and future generations of relatives. Finally, we find that the demographic and economic differences that exist among them explain funtiotional health disparities by race and ethnicity, but not by gender. (UNITED STATES, AGED, HEALTH, GENERATIONS, SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS)
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