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Italy (Rome) 48

GENUS

JANUARY-JUNE 1995 - VOLUME 51, NUMBER 1-2

96.48.1 - English - Basia ZABA, Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene, 99 Gower Street, London WC1E 6AZ (U.K.), and Neir PAES, CONDEPE, Rua Gervasio Pinez 55, Boa Vista 50?000, Recife PE (Brazil) An alternative procedure for fitting relational model life tables (p. 19-43)

The paper considers the problem of fitting a relational model life table to mortality data which does not include reliable estimates of infant and child mortality. This type of data could arise from indirect estimation of adult mortality using orphanhood or widowhood, or from adjustment of incomplete registration data using growth balance methods in a population recently destabilized by falls infertility. The proposed fitting technique can give equal weight to all the age specific mortality risk information available, rather than giving more weight to the information for younger ages, as is the case with the traditional method. An application to Brazilian data is presented. (BRAZIL, METHODOLOGY, MODEL LIFE TABLES, DEFECTIVE DATA)

96.48.2 - English - Dilip C. NATH, Department of Sociology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708-0088 (U.S.A.), and Labananda CHOUDHURY, Department of Statistics, Gauhati University, Guwahati 781014, Assam (India) Two regional (rural-urban) life tables for India (p. 45-67)

Two-regional - rural and urban - life table costructed for India for the year 1971, 1981 and 1991 describes the probability of survivorship and migration and the expectation of life by age, region and place of birth. Basic data required for its construction are taken from Census data of 1971, 1981 and Sample Registration System (SRS) data of these years. Some assumption are made for the year 1991. It is seen from the analysis, specially considering probability of migration and region specific expectation of life, that there is a decreasing trend in the urban to rural migration for either sex and the converse is true for rural to urban migration. (INDIA, DECREMENT TABLES, RURAL ENVIRONMENT, URBAN ENVIRONMENT, INTERNAL MIGRATION)

96.48.3 - French - H. Martin LAOUROU, Institut National de la Statistique and de l'Analyse Economique, BP 323, Cotonou (Benin)

Differential mortality according residence region in Benin (Mortalit? diff?rentielle selon la r?gion de r?sidence au B?nin) (p. 69-93)

The first mortality tables of Benin elaborated by direct estimation for the whole country deal with relatively different regional realities. It is in this regard that the data, whether it is death from multiround surveys or information about survival of parents, allows one to distinguish between the North (with a higher mortality) and the South (which has a lower mortality). Moreover, this differential study reveals that the level of male adult mortality after 35 years in the South, is well above the national average, probably because of the increase in deaths through violence (road accident or victim of a fire) in this part of Benin. The majority of differences in mortality between the North and the South are so important that one has logically to make separate mortality tables for these two major regions of Benin. Finally, the originality of this study is to have highlighted the mortality differentials at almost all age groups of life, something which is particularly rare in sub-Saharan Africa. (BENIN, LIFE TABLES, REGIONS, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY)

96.48.4 - English - Dilip C. NATH, Kenneth C. LAND, Department of Sociology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708-0088 (U.S.A.), and Kaushlendra K. SINGH, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997 (U.S.A.)

A waiting time distribution for the first conception and its application to a non-contracepting traditional society (p. 95-103)

In this paper, a stochastic model is developed for the waiting time to the first birth conception leading to a live birth of a cohort of married females. The model distinguishes two groups of females: (i) those who are not biologically mature at the time of marriage but are exposed to the risk of ovulation and (ii) those who are biologically mature at the time of marriage and are exposed to the risk of conception for a finite marital duration. This facilitates the simultaneous estimation of the risk of ovulation, risk of conception, and the proportion of adolescent sterile females at the time of marriage. The three parameters of the model are estimated by the minimum chi-square method. It is shown that the model provides a close fit to data on the waiting time to first conception in a sample from a rural area of India. (INDIA, CONCEPTION DELAY, FIRST BIRTH, FECUNDABILITY, STOCHASTIC MODELS)

96.48.5 - Italian - Alessandro DE SIMONI, IRP, Viale Beethoven 56, 00144 Roma (Italy) Concise measures of period fertility by birth order. An application to Italian data (Misure di sintesi della fecondit? del momento per ordine di nascita. Applicazione al caso italiano) (p. 105-131)

In recent studies several authors have shown how fertility tables and concise measures by birth order, strictly and exclusively related to the period fertility conditions, can be derived on the basis of parity progression rates. This is because the tables and measures are based on hypothetical female group, the "fictitious cohort", whose structure by age and by parity is strictly connected to the above-mentioned conditions. The many indicators derivable from the fertility tables compiled as stated above are described systematically and completely in relation to their different features. On the basis of a "complementary" model, is shown a further category of concise measures referring to fertility tables which are formally identical to the classical life tables with regard to each order of birth. The study includes applications to concrete data concerning north-central and southern divisions of Italy (1980-1982 and 1988-1990). (ITALY, METHODOLOGY, FERTILITY SCHEDULES, TOTAL FERTILITY RATE)

96.48.6 - English - Hira Lal SHARMA, Department of Maths and Statistics, College of Agricultural Engineering, JNKVV, Adhartal, Jabalpur 482?004, MP (India)

Geographical mobility and mobility expectancy: Trends in the United States of America, 1956-1987 (p. 133-146)

This article examines geographical mobility statistics with expectancy in the United States of Ametica during 1956-1987. Data collected from the Current Population Survey (CPS), U.S. Census Bureau. Results reveal that rates of geographical mobility slightly declined in all age groups considered here except various reasons for changes of 10%, 3% and 5% approximately in age groups 20 to 24, 45 to 64 and 65 and above, respectively, during the period. Further, migration expectancy shows that person born in 1987 has an expectancy of 12.01 moves to different home. About one quarter to a half of these moves occur before a person reaches age 20 and 30, respectively. A 45 year-old person in his remaining lifetime can expect only 2.44 moves, and a person aged 65 or over will experience less than one move. The impact of different socioeconomic variables on mobility is also examined with the help of logistic regression using 1979 and 1980 public-use sample tapes of data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). This indicates that younger ages, widowed/divorced/separated, higher education, lower income, white race and poor health are important determinants of geographical mobility. (UNITED STATES, GEOGRAPHIC MOBILITY, MIGRATION DETERMINANTS, MIGRATION TRENDS)

JULY-DECEMBER 1995 - VOLUME 51, NUMBER 3-4

96.48.7 - English - Isidoro BLUMER? Essay on demological statistics (p. 19-26)

This article contains the opening paragraph of an essay written in Italian by Isidoro Blumer?, published in the Annals of Statistics (III series, n?. 13) in 1885 (population historian from Bloomington University in Indiana). After briefly outlining the principal schools of thought in statistics during the second half of the last century, Blumer? places demography, i.e. the statistics of population behaviour, as the underlying basis of the social sciences, the main branch among the many directions statistics was beginning to take. Subsequently, the author turns his attention to the links connecting individual behaviour, apparently governed by chance, and group behaviour, which can be traced to general rules, whereby the study of demography acquires scientific proportions, albeit not in a position to exploit the usual methodology typical of experimental sciences. Demography, however, is not limited to a description of individual phenomenon and the laws governing these, but rather describes the causal links between these very phenomena, the aim being to identify even more generalised rules pinpointing human behaviour. This then becomes demology, in the search for logos undertaking population behaviour. (THEORY, DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH)

96.48.8 - French - Guillaume WUNSCH and Evelyne THILTG?S, Institut de D?mographie, Universit? Catholique de Louvain, 1 place Montesquieu, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium) Reorder the disorder: Disturbance and standardization variables (Une confusion standardis?e?: variables confondantes and standardisation) (p. 27-59)

One knows that crude death rates are inadequate indicators of regional mortality levels. Spatial variations in crude death rates by cause-of-death may result among others from differences in the age structures of the populations of the regions and/or from the small numbers of deaths at certain ages or for certain causes-of-death. This paper adresses, on the one hand, the issue of controlling the impact of age structures (or of confounding factors, generally speaking) and, on the other hand, that of the chance variations in the results of the various standardization methods. Standardization is considered here from the viewpoint of causal modelling: controlling for age structures is a special case of controlling for confounding variables when using aggregate data. From this point of view, we have evaluated and compared the different standardization techniques and their ability to control for confounding factors. The construction of significance tests and confidence intervals has been pursued in order to evaluate the methods from the point o view of the statistical robustness of the standardized indices. (METHODOLOGY, CRUDE RATE, STANDARDIZED RATE, DEATH RATE, CAUSES OF DEATH, AGE DISTRIBUTION)

96.48.9 - English - Barth?l?my KUATE DEFO, D?partement de D?mographie, Universit? de Montr?al, C.P. 6128, succursale A, Montr?al, Qu?., H3C 3J7 (Canada), and A. PALLONI, Center for Demography and Ecology and Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin, 1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706 (U.S.A.)

Determinants of mortality among Cameroonian children: Are the effects of breastfeeding and pace of childbearing artifacts? (p. 61-96)

We analyse a rich data source, the Yaound? round of surveys carried by IFORD (Institut de Formation et de Recherche D?mographiques) during the late seventies and early eighties in several African urban centers. We argue that despite important limitations, these surveys are potentially very useful as a source of verification of hypotheses that have been heretofore improperly tested with retrospective surveys. Using the Yaound? round we obtain fine-tuned estimates of the effects of lactation and timing of following conception on infant and child mortality. We are able to identify the role played by birthweight, types of breastfeeding, and antecedent illnesses and thus control for important variables that are not normally recorded in conventional demographic surveys. We show that potential biases associated with losses to follow-up and selection processes are of little significance. (CAMEROON, INFANT MORTALITY, YOUTH MORTALITY, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS, BREAST FEEDING, BIRTH INTERVALS)

96.48.10 - English - M. Faroque AHMED, 31 Lansdell Road, Mitcham, Surrey CR4 2JF (U.K.) Recent estimates of adult mortality from widowhood in Bangladesh: A critical comparison (p. 97-16)

The indirect techniques of demographic estimation available at the moment are often inadequate to estimate levels in the presence of trends. The generalised stable population relations have been applied to census and survey data collected in Bangladesh for the estimation of adult mortality. This method combines two sets of widowhood data and yields estimates for the inter survey period. The generalised stable population relations are based on the assumption that the population is closed to migration between the censuses. The application of the method is simple whatever may be the length of the inter survey period. But the method may be found to be affected by age misreporting and other errors. (BANGLADESH, ADULT MORTALITY, WIDOWHOOD, METHODOLOGY, STABLE POPULATION)

96.48.11 - English - Helena CHOJNACKA, 544-C Heritage Hills, Somers, NY 10589 (U.S.A.) The role of nuptiality in the demographic transition: The case of Africa. A conceptual essay (p. 117-150)

The focus of analysis is on the direction of change and causes of shifts in age at first marriage among women in the demographic transition in Africa. The principal goal of the analysis is to assess and verify the paramount, determining role of nuptiality in affecting demographic transformation, especially infertility. The findings confirm that in societes with early/universal marital patterns, initial demographic change is confined to nuptiality while fertility may be rising for decades. Two sets of causes of the shift to a later nuptiality pattern are examined. One refers to the role of nuptiality in premodern societies. The other considers: the built-in mechanism in the rate of population growth; diminishing frequency of polygyny; expansion in education and increasing employment of women in non-traditional occupations. (AFRICA, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, NUPTIALITY)

96.48.12 - English - Uche C. ISIUGO-ABANIHE, Department of Sociology, University of Ibadan, Ibadan (Nigeria) Bridewealth, marriage anf fertility in the East-Central states of Nigeria (p. 151-178)

The paper examines the determinants of high bridewealth in the east-central states of Nigeria, inhabited by the Igbo, and relates high bridewealth to rising age at marriage among both men and women. High and rising bridewealth in lgboland is associated with the prevailing economic situation, socioeconomic status of bride's parents, raising incidence of self-selection of marital partners in place of arranged marriages, and particularly increasing female education. High bridewealth, in part, is a means whereby parents seek to recoup the cost of investment on a daughter's education, which benefits are lost to them upon her marriage. Rising age at marriage in Igboland cannot be understood only on the basis of increasing urbanization, female education and employment opportunities, but also on the basis of rising bridewealth which reduces the tempo of marriage, as men take a longer time to save sufficient money for bridewealth, if they should maintain the norm of choosing Igbo wives. The study ends with an investigation of the determinants of marital fertility through the use of a causal model that includes bridewealth, age at marriage and other socioeconomic variables. (NIGERIA, AGE AT MARRIAGE, DOWRY)

96.48.13 - English - Neil THOMAS, Department of City and Regional Planning, P.O. Box 906, and Charles MERCER, School of Psychology, P.O. Box 901, University of Wales, Cardiff, CF1 3YG (U.K.) An examination of the fertility/contraceptive prevalence anomaly in Zimbabwe (p. 179-203)

According to data from the 1988-89 Demographic and Health Survey of Zimbabwe, the total fertility rate is around 5.7 and the contraceptive prevalence rate 43%. Application of the Bongaarts model to data on intermediate fertility variables yields an estimated TFR of 3.35: well below 5.7. Data on the individual intermediate variables were analysed, in order to explain this anomaly. Using various hypotheses, the authors consider that inadequacies in the contraceptive use and effectiveness data account for 48% of the anomaly, 28% is due to double protection, 8% to the age distribution of contraceptive use, and the remaining 15% to artificially high levels of pre-marital abstinence. The contraceptive data are examined further, focusing on the unusually high proportion of contraceptive use attributable to the pill; the extended use of the progestogen-only pill, with high potential for misuse; and on evidence of high levels of discontinuation and over-reporting of use. (ZIMBABWE, TOTAL FERTILITY RATE, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, QUALITY OF DATA)

96.48.14 - English - Edith LODEWIJCKX, Centre for Population and Family Studies (CBGS), Flemish Community, Markiesstraat 1, 1000 Bruxelles (Belgium), Hilary PAGE, Vakgroep Bevolkingswetenschappen, University of Ghent, Sint Pietersnieuwstraat 49, 9000 Gand (Belgium), and Ronald C. SCHOENMAECKERS, CBGS, Bruxelles (Belgium) Changes in family formation among Turkish and Moroccan women in Belgium (p. 205-227)

This paper adresses the extent to which the behaviour of migrants - in casu family formation - diverges from the pattern observed in the country of origin and converges on that of the country of destination. It is shown that the pattern of change varies according to which aspect of family formation is considered. On the basis of observed differentials between first and second generations of immigrants it is also shown that the patterns of change are parallel to those in the countries of origin. (BELGIUM, MOROCCO, TURKEY, IMMIGRANTS, FAMILY FORMATION, MIGRANT ASSIMILATION)

96.48.15 - English - Paul W. STUPP, Division of Reproductive Health (K-35), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 4770 Buford Highway N.E., Atlanta, GA 31341-3724 (U.S.A.)

Estimates of net migration by age at migration from pairs of enumerations of the foreign born: United States, 1880-1930 (p. 229-251)

This paper describes a new method for indirectly estimating age schedules of net migration. The method is illustrated with historical data for the United States. The analysis employs a recently developed technique - iterative intracohort interpolation - to estimate age schedules of net migration from pairs of enumerations of the foreign born by age. The data required for this application are enumerations of the foreign born (or more generally of those born outside the enumeration area) by age in two successive censuses, a life table presumed to reflect the mortality experience of the foreign born during the intercensal period, and, optionally, data on variations in the overall level of migration during the intercensal period. The procedure provides estimates of the average annual number of foreign born net migrants during a decade by their age at the time of entry/exit. (UNITED STATES, METHODOLOGY, MIGRATION BALANCE, FOREIGNERS, AGE DISTRIBUTION, POPULATION CENSUSES)

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