ZEITSCHRIFT FUR BEVOLKERUNGSWISSENSCHAFT

Germany (Wiesbaden) 43

1995 - VOLUME 20, NUMBER 1

96.43.1 - German - Charlotte H…HN Before and after Cairo. Reflections of a demographic expert on the results of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), 1994 (Bevšlkerungswissenschaftliche Betrachtungen zu den Ergebnissen der Internationalen Konferenz Ÿber Bevšlkerung und Entwicklung 1994 (ICPD)) (p. 3-26)

The author begins by recalling the antecedents of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), held in 1994, from a demographic point of view. She describes the appearance of the population issue, the preliminiary political reactions on an international scale, which were the Bucharest (1974) and Mexico (1984) conferences. She also reviews the factors behind the fertility decline which is commencing in the Third World. The topics of the ICPD are then examined, with particular emphasis on the new action programme which was adopted. The author highlights the change in paradigm which took place, moving from family planning programmes to the wider concept of family health which, until now, has not had quite the same reception within the field of demography. She also shows how the significant support of the NGOs and especially, the women's organisations throughout the whole world is opening the way to a fully integrated and global political approach. She feels that the new action programme stands a good chance of succeeding, specifically because it does not fix any demographic targets in terms of birth numbers, but rather, defines priorities in terms of freedom of choice, a widening range of possibilities, human rights, sustainable development, promotion of women and mass education. (CONFERENCES, WORLD POPULATION PLAN OF ACTION, EVALUATION)

96.43.2 - German - Alexander von CUBE Plan for a demo-environmental accountancy. The contribution of demography to the environmental debate (Konzeption fŸr eine Umweltdemographische Gesamtrechnung (UDG). Ein Beitrag der Bevšlkerungswissenschaft zur Umweltdebatte) (p. 27-65)

In order to make a close and detailed analysis of the links between population and environment, the author is proposing a demo-environmental accountancy system based on the economic accountancy of the environment which has already been undertaken since 1990 by the German Federal Statistical Office. The World Environment Conference (UNCED, Rio de Janeiro, 1992) and the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD, Cairo 1994) have, yet again, raised basic questions as to the links between population and the environment. The world is becoming more and more conscious of the fact that, to pursue the current main trends in evolution is to incur grave risks for our fragile environment and that coordinated international action is becoming more and more necessary and urgent. The Cairo Conference called for sustainable development based on the future and on a social evolution which would not place the environment in danger in the long term. Ecology and demography must , therefore, be closely associated (although the Conference barely touched on this point). The first part of the article describes the interrelationships between environmental evolution and population trends. In the second part, the author presents the possible contribution of demography to the analysis of Man's impact on his environment through the use of demo-environmental accountancy. (ENVIRONMENT, DEMOGRAPHY, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, METHODOLOGY)

96.43.3 - German - Katharina POHL The desire for a child and family planning in East Germany and West Germany (Kinderwunsch und Familienplanung in Ost- und Westdeutschland) (p. 67-100)

In the framework of the project for surveys on fertility and the family, launched by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN-EEC), the Federal Institute for Demographic Research (BIB) interviewed approximately 10,000 Germans of both sexes, aged from 20 to 39 years old, in 1992 - both in the Western and Eastern parts of the country. The author presents herewith the preliminary results of this survey. After a general study of the differences between males and females in the two parts of the country, she comments on the results relative to current and desired numbers of children and to the use of family planning methods. Furthermore, she provides a general, methodological overview of the UN-EEC survey project and of the German contribution to this project. (GERMANY, FERTILITY SURVEYS, DESIRED FAMILY SIZE, FAMILY SIZE, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

96.43.4 - German - Karla G€RTNER Mortality trends in certain western countries (Sterblichkeitstrends in ausgewŠhlten IndustrielŠndern) (p. 101-124)

In 1982, the Federal Institute for Demographic Research (BIB) had noted that life expectancy at birth in Germany (ex-FRG) was lower than in several other Western countries which were relatively similar from an economic, technological and medical point of view. The author extends this comparative study up until 1992 and again draws conclusions. Life expectancy at birth has increased for both sexes in all the countries under consideration. This is, first of all, due to a sharp decline in infant mortality and to a relatively more sizeable drop in the mortality of the elderly as compared to that of younger adults. Amongst the causes of death, it is the diseases of the circulatory system which have declined to the greatest extent and this trend has mainly benefited the elderly. On the other hand, the relatively less favourable development of cancer can explain why mortality in the intermediary age groups has only declined very slightly (and sometimes, has even increased a little). The author describes the changes in classification which the countries under study have undergone in the last ten years, depending on their life expectancy and certain age- and cause-of-death specific mortality rates. She comments in particular on trends in female mortality. (GERMANY, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, MORTALITY DECLINE, SEX DIFFERENTIALS, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

1995 - VOLUME 20, NUMBER 2

96.43.5 - German - Gert HULLEN When the chicks leave the nest: A comparison of West Germany with East Germany, according to the results of the 1992 family and fertility survey (Der Auszug aus dem Elternhaus im Vergleich von West- und Ostdeutschland. Ergebnisse des Family and Fertility Surveys (FFS) 1992) (p. 141-158)

In the framework of the 1992 Family and Fertility Survey, 10,000 Germans of both sexes, aged between 20 and 39 years old, were interviewed on the age at which they had left their parents' home. Between 1976 and 1991, the average age of emancipation increased from 21 to 23 in the case of males and from 20 to 21 or 22 years for females. However, a slight decline in age at emancipation was observed in the generations born after the 1950s. In the various generations, age at emancipation increases when departure from the home is associated with a birth or marriage and decreases when - and this is the most frequently found situation nowadays - when it coincides with none of these demographic events, nor with entry into a consensual union, nor with the search for higher education. The author underlines the effect of the housing policy on the emancipation decisions of some young people and the impact of the housing supply on average age at emancipation. Now that young couples and young parents in East Germany no longer benefit from preferential measures, it is likely that the age at emancipation of young East Germans will align itself with that of young people in the West. (GERMANY, REGIONS, YOUTH, CHILDREN, DEPARTURES, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

96.43.6 - German - JŸrgen DORBRITZ and Jochen FLEISCHHACKER The transition from population policy to family policy in the New Länder. Contribution to the debate on family policy in Germany (Der ?ergang von der Bevšlkerungs- zur Familienpolitik in den neuen BundeslŠndern. Ein Beitrag zum familienpolitischen Diskurs in Deutschland) (p. 159-185)

In the framework of the debate around growing individualism and the diversification of life styles, German family policy has again been brought into question. The decline in nuptiality and the increase in infertility have led to an increasing proportion of the population never knowing either marriage or a family. On these bases and using the experience of the GDR's population policy, the authors undertake a critical analysis of the concept of public assistance for families. The population policy in the GDR became more and more pro-natalist during the 1970s and yet, its effects have been very limited, which tends to confirm that a policy is not quite sufficient to turn around the basic population trends. The State has no hold over the desire for a child. Today like yesterday, the FRG has no policy for encouraging people to get married or to have babies. The authors believe that the analysis of the situation and population trends should be used as a background for any examination of the pertinence of a family policy. This procedure is particularly useful during a period of demographic and social change. The current context of family policy is one of the polarisation of behaviour models: "neither marriage nor family" as against "living with a spouse and children". Social change is moving towards the de-institutionalisation of the family while family policy addresses itself to the family institution. The evolution of population behaviour calls for a modification of the concept of family policy. (GERMANY, POPULATION POLICY, MARRIAGE, FAMILY, SOCIAL CHANGE)

96.43.7 - German - JŸrgen SCHOTT, Karl E. BERGMANN and Gerd WIESNER The increase in duration of life in East Germany and West Germany (Der LebensverlŠngerungsprozess. Ein Vergleich zwischen Ost- und Westdeutschland) (p. 187-206)

The authors have calculated the contributions of variations in the age-specific survival probabilities to life expectancy at birth and at various ages, in both East and West Germany, for the periods 1950-1960, 1960-1970, 1970-1980 and 1980-1987 and for both sexes. The increase in life expectancy can be more and more often attributed to the elderly and extremely elderly population, i.e., the population which is more often affected by chronic degenerative diseases. This trend has remained constant in West Germany, but, in East Germany, the trend was broken for a spell between 1970 and 1980, before continuing again. As these variations between East and West can not be explained by determinants relating to the situation prior to the war, the authors study the influence of the differences in the socio-political systems on the variations in mortality for some specific causes of death. (GERMANY, REGIONS, MORTALITY DECLINE, LIFE EXPECTANCY, CAUSES OF DEATH, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

96.43.8 - German - Eva NEBENF†HR The determinants of the birth of a second child (Determinanten fŸr Geburt eines zweiten Kindes) (p. 207-214)

The decision to have children is no longer, in this day and age, determined by economic reasoning, but rather, is a response to emotional reasons. But the hope of obtaining individual pleasure linked with the desire for a child can be satisfied by one single child. For society, children still present a certain economic interest. It is therefore pertinent to study the factors behind the desire for a child. The ideal family for Austrians is one of two children. The decision to have a second child depends mainly on the age and marital status of the woman. It is stirking to note that factors such as the education level, income, size of the place of residence and religious opinions do not seem to have any particular effect. The older the woman is, the less chance she has of having a second child; but if both her age and her marital status are taken into consideration, it appears that the latter has an effect on the relationship between age and probability of a second birth. Single mothers tend to delay the second birth and it is rare for married women aged between 35 and 39 years old to decide on having a second child. (AUSTRIA, PARITY PROGRESSION RATIO, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, AGE, MARITAL STATUS)

96.43.9 - German - Ralf FEUCHT The weight of retirement pensions with adjustable financing in a context of demographic evolution (Lasten der umlagefinanzierten Altersrente vor dem Hintergrund eines demographischen Wandels) (p. 215-231)

The system for financing retirement pensions underwent reform in 1992 in order to ensure its survival in the long term, faced with the phenomenon of population ageing. Until now, the gross adjustment only resulted in a perequation in terms of income when the ratio of pensioners to the economically active population changed; henceforth, the net adjustment operates this perequation in terms of income and expenditure. In spite of their stabilising effect on the financing of pensions, children have never been taken into account (except for the periods where women have dedicated themselves to bringing up their children, which is not without its inherent problems). The author believes that the two systems result in intergenerational and intragenerational effects which cannot be justified in terms of redistribution policy. And there is nothing to indicate that these effects can be compensated for by other aspects of the family policy. (GERMANY, RETIREMENT PENSIONS, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING, FINANCING)

1995 - VOLUME 20, NUMBER 3

96.43.10 - German - Reiner SCHULZ Women's social relationships' networks around middle age (Soziale Netzwerke von Frauen im mittleren Alter) (p. 247-270)

The author describes the study of the networks of social relationships which was undertaken by the Federal Institute of Population Research (BIB) and presents the results which are relative to assistance networks amongst middle-aged women (around 50 years old). Not only middle-aged women were interviewed, but also the other women in their family in order to obtain an overall and diversified view of assistance relationships at a family level. The specific aim of this study is to examine the influence which "modern" life styles (celibacy, divorce, consensual union) have on family assistance networks. It can be clearly observed that the closest relatives - first of all, the spouse, then parents and children - are irreplacable elements of the family assistance network, in particular when looking at long-term assistance which requires devotion. In the case of slight and limited assistance requirements, collaterals (brothers and sisters), friends and neighbours are, generally speaking, ready to offer assistance. The spread of "modern" life styles at the expense of marriage and the family should, therefore, increase the demand for institutional assistance since the family or informal networks are less and less often being maintained. (GERMANY, WOMEN'S STATUS, INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS, FAMILY LIFE)

96.43.11 - German - Karl SCHWARZ In what families are children and young people growing up in Germany? (In welchen Familien wachsen die Kinder und Jugendlichen in Deutschland auf?) (p. 271-292)

Approximately 73% of young West Germans and 64% of young East Germans who are presently reaching the age of majority have always lived with their two natural parents. There are more and more illegitimate births (currently, 12% in the West and 40% in the East), but a third of them are later legitimised by their parent's marriage and one-third of these children see their mother marrying a man who is not their father. The proportion of first births which are illegitimate has reached 20% in the West and 60% in the East. 12% of the children in the ex-FRG have divorced parents as against 20% in the ex-GRD. On the other hand, almost 20% of children have neither brothers nor sisters. Among teenagers aged between 15 and 17, 14% live in a single-parent family in the West and 18% in the East, most often with their mother. And when they reach majority, 13% of young West Germans and 18% of young East Germans are in a reconstructed family. (GERMANY, REGIONS, YOUTH, FAMILY COMPOSITION, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

96.43.12 - English - John H. POLLARD Long term care in selected countries: Demographic and insurance perspectives (p. 293-310)

The Governments in European countries with low fertility levels are becoming more and more pre-occupied with the problem of financing retirement pensions for their populations in which rapid ageing is being aggravated by significant and incessant increases in life expectancy. But less attention has been paid to the fact that a considerable proportion of the ever greater numbers of elderly people require highly expensive, long-term health care. While some of the countries in question have taken steps to face up to the dangerous mushrooming of the cost of retirement pensions, only one - Germany - has taken a formal engagement to ensure that long-term care will be paid for. The author evaluates requirements in long-term care and its associated costs in six countries. He underlines the difficulty of defining and measuring the demand for care of this type, describes the approaches adopted by some countries and studies various methods used for financing the enormous resultant costs. (GERMANY, EUROPE, RETIREMENT PENSIONS, PUBLIC HEALTH, FINANCING, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING)

96.43.13 - German - Andreas HEIGL Situation of occupational training and the potential of manpower (Ausbildungssituation und Erwerbspotential) (p. 311-329)

In the perspective of a demographic decline beginning and a reduction in manpower potential, the author studies various adaptation measures aimed at maintaining economic power and the State-provider through the training of human capital (increased paid work for women, increase in the age at retirement, reduction of the time spent studying and in training). The debate on education is an animated one and proposals can be heard, aimed at placing a more efficient manpower on the labour market at an earlier stage, such as (1) limiting the number of high school graduates; (2) limiting access to university and the widening of access to occupational higher education; (3) limiting the length of studies; and (4) shortening, in general, the length of secondary studies by one year. From 1995 onwards, the author simulates the effects of these proposals on the numbers of pupils and students and on the numbers in the economically active population. Each of these measures has its own specific effects since the waiting time between passing high school examinations and going on to higher studies differs according to sex, in the same way as the propensity to undertake further education does. Currently, there are less males graduating from high school than there are females and boys enter into further education at an older age than girls because of their national or civil service. But in the end, the percentage of male students who continue their studies after graduating from high school is higher than that of females. (GERMANY, EDUCATIONAL SYSTEMS, SCHOOLING, VOCATIONAL TRAINING, LABOUR TURNOVER)

Back to home page