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Japan (Tokyo) 32

JINKO MONDAI KENKYU

JANUARY 1995 - VOLUME 50, NUMBER 213

96.32.1 - Japanese - Kiyosi HIROSIMA and Fusami MITA Prefectural differentials in recent fertility (p. 1-30)

The authors attempt to measure marital period fertility using the cumulative rates of marital fertility, although these sometimes demonstrate different trends from that of the age-specific marital fertility. Their fertility rate for people married at least once is defined as being the ratio of the total fertility rate to the total first marriage rate which reflects the fact that nuptiality has a strong influence on fertility in Japan. Using this parameter, the authors compare the fertility in the Tokyo and Osaka regions to that of the other Japanese prefectures. They attribute the low family size observed in the larger cities not so much to the greater frequency of female employment than to the lower frequency of marriage and reproduction amongst working women. The low rates of overall fertility, of the proportion of married people and of marital fertility appear to them to be due to the particularly difficult conditions which are prevalent in those prefectures which are highly urbanised with regard to marriage, reproduction and child rearing, more specifically the heavy constraints with regard to working and housing conditions, child minding and education. (JAPAN, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, MEGALOPOLIS)

96.32.2 - Japanese - Hisashi INABA

On Trends of AIDS and an Estimate for the Number of HIV Infected in Japan (p. 31-44)

In this article, the author studies the trends in the number of AIDS cases and the number of HIV-infected people in Japan, using the data from the AIDS surveillance system. He observes that the cumulative incidence of AIDS has increased exponentially since the surveillance system was set up in May 1989. He estimates that the number of new people being infected is also increasing exponentially. That would mean that, in Japan, AIDS is now in the exponential phase which occurred in European countries in the late 1980s. In the second stage, the author develops a method for estimating the number of HIV-infected people in the exponential phase, using several variants. The results would give to believe that the number of infected people is around 10 (model I) to 17 times (model IV) higher than the cumulative occurrence of AIDS in Japan. In this way, there would be from 3,200 to 5,200 sero-positive people in Japan (plus 1,800 who have been infected by contaminated blood); but these figures are no doubt still an under-estimation of the actual state of affairs. (JAPAN, AIDS, ESTIMATE, METHODOLOGY)

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