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1994 - VOLUME 10, NUMBER 1

95.65.1 - English - Frans WILLEKENS, Population Research Centre, University of Groningen (Netherlands) Monitoring international migration flows in Europe. Towards a statistical data base combining data from different sources (p. 1-42)

The paper reviews techniques developed in demography, geography and statistics that are useful for bridging the gap between available data on international migration flows and the information required for policy making and research. The basic idea of the paper is as follows: to establish a coherent and consistent data base that contains sufficiently detailed, up-to-date and accurate information, data from several sources should be combined. That raises issues of definition and measurement, and of how to combine data from different origins properly. The issues may be tackled more easily if the statistics that are being compiled are viewed as different outcomes or manifestations of underlying stochastic processes governing migration. The link between the processes and their outcomes is described by models, the parameters of which must be estimated from the available data. That may be done within the context of socio-demographic accounting. The paper discusses the experience of the U.S. Bureau of the Census in combining migration data from several sources. It also summarizes the many efforts in Europe to establish a coherent and consistent data base on international migration. (INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, DATA BANKS, DATA COLLECTION)

95.65.2 - English - Sergei VASSIN, Centre of Demography and Human Ecology, Institute for Social Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 117418, Krasikova 32, Moscow (Russia) Epidemiological transition of mortality curves in terms of the Brass logit system (p. 43-68)

Historical life tables for developed countries are analysed in order to present the epidemiological transition in terms of Brass's logit system. The results of this analysis are used to determine the range of the two Brass model parameters consistent with historical life tables. This range also includes human life tables that could have been observed in pre-transitional stages or could occur in the future. (LIFE TABLES, MORTALITY DECLINE, MODELS, HISTORY)

95.65.3 - English - Elwood CARLSON, Department of Sociology, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208 (U.S.A.) The economic context of past and future Bulgarian fertility (p. 69-86)

Synthesis of Easterlin's work on cycles in period fertility with Kornai's description of classical socialist economic systems leads to a theoretical expectation that in such socialist systems, entry of large cohorts into the labour force will stimulate rather than depress period fertility. Since this expectation matches the historical experience of Bulgaria under communism extremely well, the basic logic is used to project alternate series of fertility rates to 2020 based on future changes in relative cohort size and two contrasting assumptions about the direction of the Bulgarian economy. (BULGARIA, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, FERTILITY, PROJECTIONS, SOCIALISM)

1994 - VOLUME 10, NUMBER 2

95.65.4 - English - Maria CASTIGLIONI, Department of Statistics, University of Padua (Italy), and Gianpiero Dalla ZUANNA, Department of Demography, University "La Sapienza", Rome (Italy

Innovation and tradition: Reproductive and marital behaviour in Italy in the 1970s and 1980s (p. 107-141)

Fertility, nuptiality, reproductive behaviour and living arrangements of never-married women and legally separated women are examined in order to underline differences and similarities to other Western countries. Prospects for the future are also discussed to see whether Italy is in line with the frameworks recently proposed to interpret demographic changes. The results show that delay in the timing of events cannot provide a satisfactory explanation of Italian peculiarities. (ITALY, NUPTIALITY, FERTILITY, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

95.65.5 - English - Svein BLOM, Statistics Norway, Oslo (Norway) Marriage and cohabitation in a changing society: Experience of Norwegian men and women born in 1945 and 1960 (p. 143-173)

Retrospective survey data are used to estimate the effect of various factors on the transitions to first marriage or first cohabitation among single Norwegian men and women born in 1945 and 1960. A high educational level is not found to reduce marriage intensifies for women, although educational enrolment appears to be less compatible with marriage for women than men. All effect of employment varies according to prevailing sex-role expectations. The data support the assumption that modern cohabitation developed from two socially opposite origins, the educated elite and the working class. A social value dimension is assumed to have a major effect upon the present-day choice between marriage and cohabitation. (NORWAY, COHABITATION, FIRST MARRIAGE, LEVELS OF EDUCATION, COHORT ANALYSIS)

95.65.6 - French - Gérard BOUCHARD, Centre interuniversitaire SOREP, Chicoutimi, Québec (Canada) Overpopulation in the countryside and household structures in Saguenay (1881-1931) (Pressions agraires et structures des ménages au Saguenay (1881-1931)) (p. 175-I97)

This research on the household structures in rural Saguenay has been conducted as a test of the neo-malthusian thesis, according to which overpopulation in the countryside triggers major changes in the demographic behaviors. Our paper investigates the effect of land shortage in the Saguenay region upon the household structures, more precisely on the frequence of (a) complex structures, (b) celibacy, (c) cohabitation with strangers (non-relatives). The data come from 28 parish censuses of the period 1881-1931. For each of these three indicators, findings show that the saturation of arable land did not entail significant changes. (CANADA, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, AGRARIAN STRUCTURE)

1994 - VOLUME 10, NUMBER 3

95.65.7 - English - Michel GARENNE, Harvard School of Publich Health, 665 Huntington Avenue, Room 1208, Boston, MA 02115 (U.S.A.), and Jeroen VAN GINNEKEN, NIDI, P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague (Netherlands) Comparison of retrospective surveys with a longitudinal followup in Senegal: SFS, DHS and Niakhar (p. 203-221)

This study compares the data obtained from two retrospective surveys: the Senegal Fertility Survey (SFS) and the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) with the data obtained from a longitudinal follow-up study held among the Sereer, living in a rural area of Senegal (Niakhar). The study shows that the fertility level is slightly higher in the retrospective surveys than in the longitudinal followup, the difference being mainly due to an overestimation of the fertility rate of the age group 15-19 years. The mortality levels and trends among under five children are correctly estimated by the DHS, but are underestimated by the SFS. The age pattern of mortality is slightly biased in the DHS and SFS, owing to errors on age at the time of death in these retrospective surveys. The comparison of the nutritional status was difficult to make because of the small sample size used in the DHS. (SENEGAL, RETROSPECTIVE SURVEYS, FOLLOW-UP SURVEYS, QUALITY OF DATA, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

95.65.8 - English - Patrick R. GALLOWAY, Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, California (U.S.A.) A reconstruction of the population of North Italy from 1650 to 1881 using annual inverse projection with comparisons to England, France and Sweden (p. 223-274)

North Italy annual population and vital rates are reconstructed from 1650 to 1881 using series of vital event indices from many rural parishes and cities. Inverse projection is applied to the reconstructed series of vital events and population to generate annual age distribution, gross reproduction rate, net reproduction rate, life expectancy at birth, and infant mortality rate. The results are compared with official sources and detailed demographic rates produced by annual inverse projection using data from England, France, and Sweden. Over the long term, North Italy is generally characterized by stagnant and relatively high mortality. Fertility and nuptiality are relatively high at the beginning and at the end of the period. (ITALY, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, BACKWARD PROJECTION, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

1994 - VOLUME 10, NUMBER 4

95.65.9 - English - Charles A. CALHOUN, The Urban Institute, 2100 M Street, NW, Washington, DC 20037 (U.S.A.) The impact of children on the labour supply of married women: Comparative estimates from European and US data (p. 293-318)

This paper presents estimates of the impact of the age pattern and level of fertility on the probability of labour force participation by married and cohabiting women in twelve Eastern and Western European countries and the United States. Logit models for labour force participation probabilities are estimated conditional on age, age at marriage or union, educational attainment, current parity, and number of years in parity, using data on married and cohabiting women from the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Comparative Study of World Fertility Surveys. The estimated models are used to simulate the age profiles of labour force participation conditional on the level and timing of fertility. The simulation results are presented in a series of charts grouped according to similarities in the effects of fertility on the age profiles of labour force participation. Four distinct patterns are identified that depend on the empirical significance of distinct number-of-children and age-of-youngest-child effects. The role of family policies and the extent to which the labour supply reductions associated with childbearing can be interpreted as opportunity costs are considered. (EUROPE, UNITED STATES, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, MODELS)

95.65.10 - English - Villem Jan VAN DER VEEN, Population Research Centre, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands) Does it matter where I live in Western Europe? An analysis of regional mortality differentials in Belgium, Germany and The Netherlands (p. 319-348)

Regional differentials in life expectancy at birth during the 1980s in Belgium, The Netherlands and some parts of the former Federal Republic of Germany are presented and commented upon. Life expectancy at birth during the 1980s was highest in The Netherlands, and lowest in some parts of southern Belgium. Substantial differentials existed in 1980, particularly because of differential mortality due to diseases of the circulatory system, lung cancer, breast cancer, motor vehicle accidents and suicide. These differentials persisted throughout the 1980s, but gradually converged. Gains in life expectancy were mainly due to declining cardiovascular and cerebrovascular mortality. Sharp and persistent differentials between border regions in the study area point to societal and cultural forces bringing about dividing lines between relatively homogeneous mortality profiles. (WESTERN EUROPE, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, CAUSES OF DEATH, MORTALITY TRENDS)

95.65.11 - French - Léon TABAH, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, 54 bd Raspail, 75006 Paris (France) Precusors to the Conference of Cairo (Les antécédents de la Conférence du Caire) (p. 349-380)

The United Nations is presently organising the latest International Conference on Population and Development, which is to be held in Cairo, Egypt, 5-13 September. We explore here the historical horizons of this congress, looking at the diverse world conferences on population of the century already held. We also examine the objectives and results of these meetings and discuss the context in which the Cairo Conference is now being organised. (UN SYSTEM, CONFERENCES, HISTORY)

1995 - VOLUME 11, NUMBER 1

95.65.12 - English - R. LESTHAEGHE and J. SURKYN, Centrum voor Sociologie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels (Belgium) Heterogeneity in social change: Turkish and Moroccan women in Belgium (p. 1-29)

The data presented here pertain to 850 Turkish and 860 Moroccan women aged 17-49 currently living in Belgium, and interviewed in 1991-93 by native female interviewers. The two surveys cover short migration histories, family formation variables pertaining to nuptiality, endogamy, fertility, contraception, utility of children, gender relation attitudes, residential characteristics, education and female labour force participation, linguistic abilities and opinions concerning religion and politics. A marked heterogeneity is noticed with respect to these variables, with obvious contrasts between first and second generation, but equally striking contrasts between the second generation and the recently "imported brides" who belong to the same age group as the second generation. Furthermore, heteropraxis shows up in the sense that the tempo of the changes are markedly different depending on social domain. (BELGIUM, IMMIGRANTS, WOMEN, SECOND GENERATION MIGRANTS)

95.65.13 - English - Leonid DARSKY, Department of Demography, Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, Moscow (Russia), and Sergei SCHERBOV, Population Research Center, FRW, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands) Marital status behaviour of women in the former Soviet Republics (p. 31-62)

This paper uses the most recent data and life table analysis to describe the marital behaviour of women in the republics of the former USSR. For the first time a multistate life table analysis was used to describe the marital careers of women from all the 15 republics. In the near future, such a comparative analysis will no longer be possible due to the unavailability of statistical data, especially in some of the Asian states. The analysis shows that despite 70 years of influence by Soviet ideology and lifestyle, the institution of marriage was little subject to rapid change, and retained its traditions for each culture and its ethnic features. Marriage was a universal institution in the former USSR. The majority of the women in all of the former republics entered marriage at least once. The mean age at first marriage varies from 20.5 in Moldavia to 22.8 in Azerbaijan. The proportion of marriages that end in divorce differs from 16% in Georgia to 41% in Latvia. On average more than 30% of divorced women remarry in Latvia and Ukraine and less than 5% in Georgia. (USSR, NUPTIALITY, DIVORCE RATE, DECREMENT TABLE, CULTURAL CHANGE)

95.65.14 - English - Godelieve MASUY-STROOBANT and Catherine GOURBIN, Institut de Démographie, Université Catholique de Louvain, 1 place Montesquieu, Bte. 17, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

Infant health and mortality indicators (p. 63-84)

The ability of infant mortality and health indicators to monitor health conditions in early infancy, and their broader use as indicators of the general level of socioeconomic development are discussed from three points of view. These are: (i) the increasing impact of differences in legal definitions of live and stillbirths on the comparability of the infant mortality figures produced by vital statistics; (ii) the validity of mortality measures to monitor health; (iii) the comparability of social inequalities in infant health and mortality over time and across countries. (EUROPE, INFANT MORTALITY, MATERNAL AND CHILD HEALTH, SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS)

95.65.15 - French - Claude DIONNE, Bureau de la statistique du Québec, 200 Chemin Sainte-Foy, Québec, QC G1R 5T4 (Canada) Demographic relationships between generations and models derived from them (Les relations intergénérationnelles et quelques modèles qui en découlent) (p. 85-101)

Lotka's model of population consists of a dynamic process of population renewal which connects fertility, survival and age-structure with each other. It requires the assumption of stability of demographic parameters. We suggest here a static approach, which relates different cohorts to each other by chains (links, bonds) of decent and ascent, and which does not require any assumptions about demographic stability. (METHODOLOGY, DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS, STATIC MODELS, COHORT ANALYSIS)

1995 - VOLUME 11, NUMBER 2

95.65.16 - English - A.J. FIELDING, Faculty of Economics, Ritsumeikan University, Kyoto (Japan) Migration and social change: A longitudinal study of the social mobility of "immigrants" in England and Wales (p. 107-121)

Data from the OPCS Longitudinal Study is used to examine the social mobility of immigrants' in England and Wales between 1971 and 1981. Three issues are raised: (i) in what respects and to what degree do 'immigrants' differ in their social mobility characteristics from the norm set by the population as a whole?; (ii) in what respects and to what degree do immigrants' differ amongst themselves in their social mobility characteristics according to their country of origin?, and (iii) how do 'second-generation immigrants' and recently-arrived immigrants differ in their social class locations from those who have been in the British labour market for a considerable length of time? (UNITED KINGDOM, IMMIGRANTS, SOCIAL MOBILITY, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

95.65.17 - English - Fausta ONGARO, Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche, Università di Padova, Via S. Francesco 33, 35121 Padova (Italy), and Silvana SALVINI, Dipartimento Statistico, Università di Firenze, Viale Morgagni 59, 50134 Firenze (Italy)

Understanding self-perceived health in the elderly. An analysis of 1986 Italian data (p. 123-141)

Measurement is one of the main problems to be dealt with when analysing health conditions. Diseases, disabilities, handicaps and other impairments, constantly affect the individual's state of physical, psychological and social well-being and interact to create the concept of illness. The numerous indicators in the current literature can therefore highlight totally different aspects of a given state of poor health. In this paper we analyze, using Italian data, the variables that influence the self-perceived health status with the aim of understanding the meaning of the indicator among people older than 65 years. (ITALY, AGED, HEALTH, INDICATORS)

95.65.18 - English - Antonella PINNELLI, Department of Demographic Sciences, University of Rome "La Sapienza", Rome (Italy), and Eitan SABATELLO, Central Bureau of Statistics, Hebrew University, Jerusalem (Israel) Determinants of the health and survival of the elderly: Suggestions from two different experiences - Italy and Israel (p. 143-167)

This study compares the health status and survival of the elderly in two countries, Italy and Israel. While both are developed Mediterranean countries, their degree of ageing, characteristic features of the elderly, health status and survival are different. The data are from two sample surveys and, for Israel, from a record linkage between survey and mortality data at five years remove. A preliminary analysis, using a multiple correspondence factorial analysis, highlighted a gradual change in living, arrangements and socioeconomic features as the population ages, which was only slightly associated with health conditions. In Israel, moreover, the Arab minority differs according to social conditions, living arrangements and health status. The determinants of health status and survival of the elderly in both countries were studied using as dependent variables: 1) self-perceived health status; 2) the frequency of medical examinations; 3) medical tests, for both countries and 4) (for Israel) deaths. Linear logistic models were constructed using, as explanatory variables, sex, age and living arrangements, a variable indicative of community level socio-economic and cultural conditions, two indicators describing individual socio-economic conditions and smoking habits. Thus it is possible to assess the impact of explanatory variables by comparing both subjective conditions and behaviour factors regarding medical care, with the unequivocal confirmation provided by death. (ITALY, ISRAEL, AGED, HEALTH, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

95.65.19 - English - Carl P. SCHMERTMANN, Department of Economics, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4063 (U.S.A.)

An introduction to nonparametric regression in demographic research (p. 169-192)

Nonparametric (NP) regression methods are increasingly important in statistics, economics, and other disciplines. To date, however, very little demographic research has made use of NP methods. These new methods utilize increased computing power to limit the need for time-saving (but possibly incorrect) mathematical assumptions about functional forms in regression analysis. This expository, non-technical paper discusses the rationale for NP regression, illustrates several of the basic NP regression methods with demographic examples, describes extensions of basic methods to multivariate regressions, and discusses the relevance of NP regression for demographic research. (METHODOLOGY, REGRESSION ANALYSIS)

1995 -VOLUME 11, NUMBER 3

95.65.20 - English - Alice Bee KASAKOFF and John W. ADAMS, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208 (U.S.A.) The effect of migration on ages at vital events: A critique of family reconstitution in historical demography (p. 199-241)

Demographic rates of historical populations have usually been calculated using only data from stayers alone. Can they be extrapolated to the population as a whole? Ruggles has recently pointed out, using both logic and a computer simulation, that stayers experience vital events earlier in life than movers due to migration censorship: those who experience them later in life have often migrated away from the community being studied. We show that stayers do indeed marry and die at younger ages than do movers, using a genealogical database on the American North (1620-1880). These differences are caused, however, both by migration censorship and by genuine differences between the two groups and the places they lived. Therefore changes over time among stayers are not good indicators of changes in the population as a whole because they are affected by changing migration rates. Thus no simple "correction factor" can be extrapolated to estimate the general population; neither stayers (nor movers) constitute a "baseline" or "normal" process: both must be considered together in order to gain an accurate picture of the population as a whole. (METHODOLOGY, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, MIGRANTS, NON-MIGRANTS)

95.65.21 - English - Josef KYTIR, Christian KÖCK, Institute for Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Hintere Zollamtsstrasse 2b, A-1033 Vienna (Austria), and Rainer MÜNZ, Lehrstuhl Bevölkerungswissenschaft, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, D-10099 Berlin (Germany)

Historical regional patterns of infant mortality in Austria (p. 243-259)

First, an overview of the secular decline of infant mortality in Austria between 1820 and 1950 is given. Second, the study analyses the historical regional differences of infant mortality in Austria comparing data for all 99 political districts (Politische Bezirke) for the period 1900 to 1950. The most important results are: At the turn of the 19th century infant mortality rates were generally lower in Alpine than in non-alpine regions and lower in cities than in their surrounding areas. This geographical pattern which remained constant until the 1950s was solely determined by differences in post-neonatal mortality rates. Plausible explanations for these regional differences are discussed. (AUSTRIA, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, INFANT MORTALITY, MORTALITY DECLINE, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY)

95.65.22 - English - Josef KYTIR and A. PRSKAWETZ, Institute for Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Hintere Zollamtsstrasse 2b, A-1033 Vienna (Austria) Life expectancy at age 60 - epidemiologic scenarios assuming delayed mortality for selected causes of death (p. 261-273)

The present analysis offers a projection of life expectancy at advanced ages in Austria for the year 2010. To estimate the gains in life expectancy the Simultaneous Multiple Cause-Delay (SIMCAD) method is used. This model takes into account the epidemiological concept of an additional delay in the onset of particular chronic-degenerative diseases. While the results of the SIMCAD method vary only slightly on the whole from the official projection of life expectancy at age 60, the similarity between the two projections decreases steadily with increasing age. The SIMCAD model predicts higher gains in life expectancy for the oldest age-groups of the population than do the official statistics. (METHODOLOGY, AGED, LIFE EXPECTANCY, PROJECTIONS, MODELS)

95.65.23 - English - Lincoln H. DAY, NIDI, P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague (Netherlands) Recent fertility trends in industrialized countries: Toward a fluctuating or a stable pattern? (p. 275-288)

By the mid-1980s, fertility in most of the world's "developed" countries had declined to unprecedentedly low levels. Since then, it has declined still further in some, increased slightly in others, and fluctuated in still others. Irrespective of cause, these changes could not have occurred in the absence of substantial control over childbearing. While future increases and decreases are both possible, it is argued that, contrary to the usual demographic expectations for populations exercising substantial control over fertility, fertility in most of these countries will increase to approximate replacement levels and then undergo only minor fluctuations around these levels thereafter. (DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, FERTILITY TRENDS, FAMILY PLANNING, POPULATION REPLACEMENT)

1995 - VOLUME 11, NUMBER 4

95.65.24 - English - G. ANDERSSON, Demography Unit, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm (Sweden) Divorce-risk trends in Sweden 1971-1993 (p. 293-311)

The purpose of this paper is to introduce an updated system of annual indices of divorce risks and to use the system to display trends in divorce risks for Swedish women over the years since 1971. Divorce-risk trends turn out to have been quite different for women at different parities. Trends for women in their first marriage (the majority) are also somewhat different from trends in later marriages. After a spurt in divorces at parity 0 connected with a divorce reform in 1974, divorce risks have been quite stable for women at this parity, but they have increased steadily among married mothers, mostly as an effect of an increasing prevalence of premarital childbearing. Our indexes are produced by an indirect standardization of register data with respect to a woman's age at marriage, duration of marriage, and order of marriage. We also recommend standardization with respect to an indicator of premarital childbearing, which is particularly important in a population with extensive nonmarital cohabitation. (SWEDEN, DIVORCE RATE, PREMARITAL BIRTHS)

95.65.25 - English - Jan M. HOEM, Demography Unit, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm (Sweden) Harmless omission in the standardization of demographic rates (p. 313-322)

Standardization is a well-known technique used to avoid compositional effects when a schedule of demographic rates are compared for two or more subpopulations. Common sense tells us that such standardization can be omitted when the subpopulations have the same structure with respect to the covariates one could standardize for. The present note gives a theoretical justification of this intuitive insight and relates it to the theory for harmless model misspecification in intensity-regression analysis. The idea of the latter notion is that under certain circumstances one can omit factors without producing biases which affect the coefficients of remaining covariates, even when the omitted factors genuinely affect the investigated behavior. (METHODOLOGY, PROBABILITY)

95.65.26 - English - Peter CONGDON, Department of Geography, Queen Mary and Westfield College, Mile End Road, London E1 4NS (U.K.) Life table analysis for areas using vital register data (p. 343-369)

This study considers the utility of parameterised life table derived by survival analysis for comparing mortality between areas, using death registration records and accompanying information on the social characteristics for each individual deceased. Such methods enable a comparison of summary measures of mortality experience such as life expectancy and median age at death before and after adjustment for socio-economic variables. In the absence of comparable information on the survivor population an approximate life table method is investigated as a means of comparing mortality profiles and the effects of social factors. Such factors may pertain both to the individuals (e.g. their birthplace) or to their small area of residence (e.g. measures of area deprivation). These methods also permit a comparison of the impact of socio-economic factors on different causes of death. The application is to mortality in London over the period 1990-92 and to its constituent boroughs and electoral wards. (UNITED KINGDOM, LOCAL COMMUNITIES, LIFE TABLES, METHODOLOGY, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS)

95.65.27 - English - Jean-Pierre GONNOT, Regional Adviser for Population and Development, Economic Commission for Europe, Palais des Nations, Geneva 10 (Switzerland), Christopher PRINZ, European Centre for Social Welfare Policy and Research, Berggasse 17, A-1090 Vienna (Austria), and Nico KELMAN, Statistics Norway, P.O. Box 8131 Dep., N-0033 Oslo (Norway) Adjustments of public pension schemes in twelve industrialized countries: Possible answers to population ageing (p. 371-398)

This article analyses the impact of population dynamics on future public pension expenditure in twelve industrialized countries. Whereas previous studies have mainly emphasized ageing effects, this study looks into the consequences of changing marital status structures as well. Old age pensions, disability, and survivor's pensions are investigated. Various sets of demographic and pension scenarios are formulated for the projections, dealing with changes in demographic, labour force and pension system variables in the future. The analyses show that there can be no adequate demographic response to rising pension costs caused by population ageing at the horizon 2030. Neither an increase in fertility nor an inflow of migrants can rejuvenate national populations, unless fertility and/or migration reach unrealistically high levels. Instead, substantial reductions of the public pension burden have to be sought in socioeconomic measures. (RETIREMENT PENSIONS, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING, PROJECTIONS)

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