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JANUARY-FEBRUARY 1995 - 50th YEAR, NUMBER 1

95.46.1 - French - Youssef COURBAGE and Myriam KHLAT, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)

Mortality and causes of death of Moroccans in France, 1979-91 (La mortalité et les causes de décès des Marocains en France. I. La mortalité générale : une confirmation de la sous-mortalité masculine malgré les problèmes de mesure) (p. 7-32)

Official French death statistics for Moroccan men in France (1979-91) suggest very substantial under-mortality. Moroccan women have higher death rates than French women. The doubts raised by these findings suggest that an indirect assessment of the completeness of these death figures could be worthwhile. This approach is not used in countries with an up-to-date statistical structure. Assessment of official French child mortality statistics for the under 20s (two-thirds of whom were born in France) suggest that the rates are accurately reported. Although there are few omissions in the death rates for women aged over 20, the same does not apply to men. Despite of adjustment, death rates are lower than for French men unlike those for Moroccan and French women. Life expectancy is much higher in both sexes than in Morocco. The lower mortality of Moroccans in France, established with raw and adjusted raw data, is surprising given their living and housing conditions, job profiles and low standard of education. The selection of immigrants, and health controls for entry permits, the almost free access to health care in France and certain lifestyles and consumption patterns however promote this lower immigrant male mortality (in contrast to women where entry controls are less stringent). The omission in the official register could be due to Moroccan men in poor health returning to Morocco. French census and local Moroccan survey data show that returns are increasingly prevalent and that people returning to Morocco are often in poor health. (FRANCE, MOROCCO, IMMIGRANTS, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY)

95.46.2 - French - Nicole BELLA, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France) Fertility in Cameroon. Recent rates and trends (La fécondité au Cameroun : niveaux et tendances) (p. 33-60)

The latest fertility data for Cameroon are given in the Demographic and Health Survey of 1991. Estimated total fertility was 5.8 children per woman. If the results of the previous survey carried out in 1978 are reliable, total fertility at that time amounted to 6.5 children, so there has been a slight reduction (11%). This drop is mainly due to changes in fertility in urban areas, particularly in Yaounde and Douala, the two largest cities in Cameroon, where total fertility dropped from 5.3 children in 1978 to 4.4 in 1991, i.e. by almost one child. In addition to fertility trends, the article also discusses the factors which determined fertility in 1991, and shows that fertility is almost "natural", since it continues to be determined by post-partum insusceptibility characterized by breastfeeding and post-partum sexual abstinence. These two factors alone have led to a reduction of more than 40% in fertility, and 17% in nuptiality. Primary sterility is also an important factor which affects 10% of women in the 45-49 group and has reduced fertility by 11%. The prevalence of contraception is low: only 4% of women were users in 1991. The low prevalence of contraception must be seen in the context of a desire for large families (desired mean family size was 6.8 children per woman). The future of fertility will depend on the proximate determinants (contraception) which, in turn, could be affected by people's behaviour in a socioeconomic environment which is at present unfavourable. (CAMEROON, FERTILITY TRENDS, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS)

95.46.3 - French - Thérèse LOCOH and Marie-Paule THIRIAT, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France) Divorce and remarriage in West Africa: the situation in Togo (Divorce et remariage des femmes en Afrique de l'Ouest : le cas du Togo) (p. 61-94)

The high matrimonial mobility of West African women is only generally analysed by demographers as a correlate in polygamy research (on men) or as a fertility factor. Anthropological literature, on the other hand, has investigated the subject in its own right, weighing up the pros and cons of marriage, widowhood and divorce for the status of women. Analysis of the matrimonial data on women surveyed in the DHS Togo survey (1988) confirms certain observations and interpretations by ethnologists. It shows the fragility of couples during the first few years of marriage. Multivariance analysis measures the impact of the housing environment, level of education, matrimonial cohabitation, infertility and ethnic specificities on the risk of divorce. The last few years seem to have been marked by a rising trend in the probability of marriage breakups and remarriage. It still remains to be found out whether these new matrimonial trends result in a real gain in the autonomy of women or whether, on the contrary, women are less secure and more dependent on the person able to help them raise their children. (TOGO, WOMEN'S STATUS, DIVORCE, REMARRIAGE)

95.46.4 - French - Philippe ANTOINE, Mamadou DJIRE and Benoît LAPLANTE Socio-economic determinants of the age of marriage in Dakar (Les déterminants socio-économiques de la sortie du célibat à Dakar ) (p. 95-118)

Using biographic data confronting matrimonial, residential and professional profiles, we have analyzed the delay in the age of first marriage in Dakar in three generation groups of men and women. The changes affecting matrimonial life have to be analysed dynamically and within the person's lifecycle as a whole, to show the interaction between matrimonial events, and economic and social changes affecting the person. The delay in the age of marriage is not much influenced by cultural factors (particularly for men) and seems to be largely determined by increasing economic difficulties (particularly employment and housing). Men hesitate to get married because of the severity of the crisis. (SENEGAL, FIRST MARRIAGE, ECONOMIC RECESSION)

95.46.5 - French - Francis RONSIN, Université de Dijon, Dijon (France) War and nuptiality. Some thoughts on the effects of the Second World War and other wars on French marriage rates (Guerre et nuptialité. Réflexions sur l'influence de la Seconde Guerre mondiale, et de deux autres, sur la nuptialité des Français) (p. 119-148)

Demographers have never paid enough attention to the impact of wars on marriage trends. When their research has led them to mention this issue, they have generally just noted that the mobilisation and detention of men have reduced marriage rates. Having said this, they have totally neglected the emotional effects of the political and combat situation. Slightly more attention to the statistics might have shown the shortcomings of this approach. Having shown the shortfalls in the literature on the Second World War period in France, the author looks at two more recent events: the Algerian War and the Gulf War, to prove that the psychological effects of fighting and even the threat of conflict cannot be neglected. Thus the monthly marriage rate in 1956 cannot only be explained by French reservists being sent to Algeria. The British-French intervention in Egypt and that of the Warsaw pact troops in Hungary had observable effects. Although the Gulf War only mobilized an insignificant French contingent, which was not involved in any actual combat duty and which did not suffer any casualties, the invasive and alarming media coverage seems to have had some effect on marriage rates. The author then returns to the Second World War by emphasizing some effects of public morale on marriage statistics, and concludes by suggesting different research methods to better elucidate the relationships between war and marriage rates. (NUPTIALITY, WAR, PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS)

95.46.6 - French - Daniel COURGEAU, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France), and Jamal NAJIM, Institut de Statistique, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris (France) Analysis of fragmentary biographies (Analyse de biographies fragmentaires) (p. 149-168)

Some sources of longitudinal data, such as INSEE's permanent demographic sample and the social, geographic and wealth mobility survey by Dupaquier and Kessler, contain fragmentary demographic information. This article describes methods for analysing such biographies and dicusses what assumptions are required to give correct estimations. The validity of these assumptions is tested using complete retrospective data from the survey on family, professional and migratory data artificially fragmented in the same way as observed in incomplete sources. This opens up the possibility of using fragmentary data to estimate the correct lengths of residence, particularly in the field of geographic and professional mobility. (METHODOLOGY, EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS, DEFECTIVE DATA)

MARCH-APRIL 1995 - 50th YEAR, NUMBER 2

95.46.7 - French - Brigitte BACCAÏNI, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France) Geographical differences in contraceptive behavior (Les contrastes géographiques des comportements de contraception) (p. 291-330)

Differences in contraceptive behavior can be found at the micro-level of housing, as well as at regional level. They are the result, at least in part, of different socio-demographic structures. However, at both levels there exist direct links between the geographical environment, which can reflect unequal access to medical care. But these factors cannot explain differences in behaviour found in low-cost housing in large cities, in which use of contraception began belatedly and increased very slowly. The effect of environmental differences will also vary with the socio-demographic situation of women in a given geographical context. (FRANCE, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, SOCIAL DIFFERENTIATION, REGIONS)

95.46.8 - French - Bernard ZARCA, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France) Inheritance and differences in social mobility between brothers (L'héritage et la mobilité sociale au sein de la fratrie. l. - L'héritage et la mobilité sociale différentielle des frères) (p. 331-356)

In a previous paper, the author investigated whether one or several sons were chosen to inherit their father's independent occupational status. He concluded that privileged treatment of oldest sons did not exclude the possibility that status could be inherited by several sons. In this paper the author extends his analysis to all social classes. Does marriage increase or reduce the chances of inheriting occupational status, or access to such status? Are the matrimonial careers of eldest and youngest sons different? Generally, the answers are positive, which suggests that inheritance and social mobility shoud be studied for families, rather than for individuals. However, they do not contradict the well known fact that eldest sons enjoy a privileged position. A paper which deals with the position of daughters is in course of preparation. (SIBLINGS, INHERITANCE, SOCIAL MOBILITY)

95.46.9 - French - Didier CHAMBOVEY, Université de Neuchâtel, Neuchâtel (Switzerland) Policies relating to aliens and quota systems for immigrants. The example of Switzerland (Politique à l'égard des étrangers et contingentement de l'immigration : l'exemple de la Suisse) (p. 357-384)

Towards the end of the Second World War, Switzerland relied very heavily on foreign workers to meet the demand for labour during a period of sustained economic growth. Following a decline in immigration during the 1970s, there was an upsurge during the 1980s, which raised the percentage of the foreign population to an all-time high in 1993. Increased immigration resulted in an increased diversity of migrant's origins, because of an active recruitment policy for workers from Portugal and Yugoslavia. The author assesses the efficiency of quantitative controls (quota systems) and their effect on the labour market. These had only a small impact on immigration, and thus on the numbers of permanent foreign residents in Switzerland. A policy which allowed foreigners who had been admitted to facilitate family reunification to settle in Switzerland, and the conversion of seasonal into permanent permits, reduced the effect of quantitative restrictions. Policies failed to achieve an optimum balance in employment and led to an economy which was more vulnerable in times of crisis, and to higher unemployment. (SWITZERLAND, IMMIGRATION POLICY, EVALUATION, ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS)

95.46.10 - French - Lorraine DUCHESNE and Nicole LAURIN, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Québec H3C 3J7 (Canada) Career paths of nuns in Quebec 1922-1971 (Les trajectoires professionnelles des religieuses au Québec de 1922 à 1971) (p. 385-414)

Nuns in Quebec follow proper professional careers that reflect a collective, rather than an individual strategy. This paper begins by providing a summary of the characteristics of this group, such as the total number of nuns, the proportion they form of the active female labour force, their age at entry to the labour force, etc. The authors describe the distribution of nuns by type and size of the communities they belong to, their social origins, and their educational qualifications at entry to the labour force, their first jobs, and the jobs they held as they increased in women. Finally, the nuns' career paths are considered: the relation between their educational levels and social origins and their employment in different communities. Opportunities for mobility are different for members of different orders. The authors conclude that by withdrawing from the "world", (i.e. from salaried employment, family and marital ties), nuns can avoid some of the constraints associated with their social origin and their sex through the collective organisation of their work. (CANADA, WOMEN'S STATUS, RELIGIOUS INSTITUTIONS, LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION)

95.46.11 - French - Youssef COURBAGE, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France) Declining fertility in the Arab peninsula (Baisse de la fécondité dans la Péninsule arabique) (p. 415-446)

The Arab peninsula consists of a number of countries, which differ not only in the sizes of their populations, but also in fertility. For instance, fertility in Oman is twice as high as in Bahrain. Factors that are important in the demographic transition, e.g. delayed marriage and recourse to contraception, as well as infant mortality, urbanization, education, the proportion of women who work outside their homes, etc., also differ in different countries. It is possible that high oil revenues may have masked the influence of improvements in the status of women on the decline in fertility. Falls in the world price of oil could affect fertility and lead to fertility decline throughout the peninsula. (WESTERN ASIA, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)

95.46.12 - French - Youssef COURBAGE and Myriam KHLAT, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France) Mortality and causes of death of Moroccan in France 1979-1991. II. Causes of death (La mortalité et les causes de décès des Marocains en France de 1979 à 1991. II. - Les causes de décès) (p. 447-472)

Causes of death among Moroccan immigrants to France were studied for the period 1979 to 1991, using an indirect method to adjust for underreporting. Mortality of Moroccans from diseases of the nervous system and sensory organs, as well as from cancer, are lower than those of the native French population. Mortality of Moroccan men from most types of cancer, excepting lung cancer, and that of Moroccan women from cancers of the digestive system and cancer of the breast (but not cancer of the uterus) is lower than in the French population. Mortality from circulatory disease is lower for men, but slightly higher for women, who also suffer higher mortality from diabetes and diseases of the genito-urinary system. Deaths related to pregnancy and chidbirth are also high. Both sexes experience lower mortality from traffic accidents before the age of 25, but men's rates are higher after that age. Suicides are less common among men, but very high among Moroccan women between the ages of 10 and 24; mortality from violence is also higher for Moroccans of both sexes. The results are discussed in the light of what is known about the lifestyle and use of the health system by Moroccans living in France. (FRANCE, MOROCCO, IMMIGRANTS, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, CAUSES OF DEATH)

MAY-JUNE 1995 - 50th YEAR, NUMBER 3

95.46.13 - French - Annabel DESGREES DU LOU and Gilles PISON, Laboratoire d'Anthropologie biologique, Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Musée de l'Homme, 17 place du Trocadéro, 75016 Paris (France) The role of vaccination in lowering children's death rates in Senegal (Le rôle des vaccinations dans la baisse de la mortalité des enfants au Sénégal) (p. 591-620)

Since the end of World War II, death rates of children and teenagers in Senegal have fallen. The reduction occurred later in rural areas than in the towns and was the result of efforts to decentralize the health service after 1978. The spread of health programmes to rural areas which occurred after the Alma Ata conference was mainly responsible for lowering the death rate. Implementation of a broader vaccination programme to immunize all children less than five years old, as well as pregnant women, appears to have played a decisive part in accelerating the decline in death rates in the recent past, especially in rural areas. We studied child mortality in the rural area of Bandafassi where the demographic situation has been monitored for some time. The study also shows that although conditions did not change greatly, vaccination resulted in halving the death rates of children during the first five years of life. (SENEGAL, INFANT MORTALITY, YOUTH MORTALITY, MORTALITY DECLINE, VACCINATION)

95.46.14 - French - Magali BARBIERI, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France), James ALLMAN, United States Agency for International Development, Antananarivo (Madagascar), PHAM Bich San, Institut de Sociologie, Hanoi (Vietnam), and NGUYEN Minh Thang, Comité National pour la Population et la Planification Familiale, Hanoi (Vietnam)

Demographic trends in Vietnam (La situation démographique du Viêt Nam) (p. 621-652)

The population of Vietnam was estimated at about 13 million at the beginning of the century. By 1955 it had doubled to 27 million, and it doubled again during the following 25 years to reach 53 million in 1980, following the mortality decline since the turn of the century - accomplished, despite a long period of deadly wars which, with consistently high birth rates (over 40 per 1000) - resulted in an accelerated rate of growth. The extraordinary population density in some areas (more than 1000 per sq. km. in certain rural areas of the Red River delta) led to concern by the Vietnamese government, which adopted a series of measures designed to encourage Vietnamese women to limit their fertility. This policy was reinforced and extended to the entire country after reunification. Combined with a gradual change in attitudes, it reduced total fertility by more than one-third in less than one generation: from more than six to fewer than four children per woman between the early 1970s and the late 1980s. This period coincided with an outflow of population, as more than two million fled from the communist regime, especially between 1978 and 1981. This trend continues to affect the age and sex distribution of the population, but recent projections suggest that the shape of the population pyramid will gradually revert to normal. (VIETNAM, POPULATION SITUATION, FERTILITY DECLINE, MORTALITY DECLINE)

95.46.15 - French - Benoît HAUDIDIER A comparison of mortality trends in West Germany and France, 1950-1989 (Evolution comparée de la mortalité en RFA et en France (1950-1989)) (p. 653-688)

Since the end of World War II growth of the populations of West Germany and France has increasingly been correlated with life expectancies at birth. The apparent similarity in the two countries, however, hides significantly different trends in age-specific mortality. The author uses both a period and a cohort approach to analyze these differences in depth. Having identified the respective influences of history and the environment, he demonstrates differences between the patterns of French and German mortality. The epidemiological causes of this differentiation will be analyzed in a later article. The study also throws light on the demographic future of European populations which are moving toward an increasingly uniform lifestyle, and a similar interpenetration of economic systems. (FRANCE, GERMANY, MORTALITY DECLINE, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

95.46.16 - French - Christiane DELBÈS, Fondation Nationale de Gérontologie, 49 rue Mirabeau, 75016 Paris (France), and Joëlle GAYMU, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France) Preferences of the elderly for home entertainment. An age or a generational effect? (Le repli des anciens sur les loisirs domestiques. Effet d'âge ou de génération ?) (p. 689-720)

During the last 15 years, leisure activities have increased markedly, and those aged 60 and older were the first to benefit from this trend. However, they often remain on the sidelines, which is disconcerting, given the amount of free time they enjoy. They often prefer activities which can be undertaken at home. Is this due to age, or is it a generational phenomenon? It is true that during their formative years todays' elderly spent most of their time in productive occupations. But leisure activities are closely determined by education and geographical location, and here the elderly are at a disadvantage. A survey of individuals over a longer period, shows that their withdrawal from leisure activities is less marked than a previous study had led us to believe. Retired people still enjoy the same cultural and leisure activities that they did 15 years earlier. If, therefore, the ratio of elderly people in some leisure activities remains low, the reason probably is that they belong to different generations. If old age reflects one's youth, it is likely that the elderly will in future tend to pursue leisure activities to a greater extent than they do today. (FRANCE, AGED, LEISURE, CULTURAL CHANGE)

JULY-OCTOBER 1995 - 50th YEAR, NUMBER 4-5

95.46.17 - French - Vladimir SHKOLNIKOV, Centre de démographie et d'écologie humaine, Moscou (Russia), France MESLE and Jacques VALLIN, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)

Health crisis in Russia. I. Recent trends in life expectancy and causes of death from 1970 to 1993 (La crise sanitaire en Russie. I. Tendances récentes de l'espérance de vie et des causes de décès de 1970 à 1993) (p. 907-944)

Since the mid-1960s, the trend of life expectancy at birth in Russia has differed from those of the majority of other Western populations. Until the beginning of the 1980s, life expecting of women has remained unchanged, and that of men has declined. Some progress was made following the anti-alcohol campaign launched by Gorbachev in 1985, but it proved to be ephemeral. After 1987, the fall in life expectancy continued for both sexes, and even accelerated in 1993. The decline is not affected by correcting the level of infant mortality which has been underestimated, because the negative trend is linked mainly to a rise in adult mortality rates, particularly among men. Unpublished data on causes of death have made it possible to construct time series for the period from 1970 to 1993 for deaths classified into the 185 causes in the Soviet Classification of Causes of death. Increases in the prevalence of cardio-vascular diseases which the health system was unable to treat have contributed to the long-term negative trend. Deaths from violence were responsible for fluctuations towards the end of the 1980s. Finally, the recent fall in life expectancy in 1993 applies to deaths from all causes and is undoubtedly related to the economic crisis in that year which contributed to the disorganization of the health system. (RUSSIA, MORTALITY INCREASE, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS, CAUSES OF DEATH)

95.46.18 - French - Vladimir SHKOLNIKOV, Centre de démographie et d'écologie humaine, Moscou (Russia), France MESLE and Jacques VALLIN, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)

Health crisis in Russia. II. Changes in causes of death. A comparison with France and England and Wales (1970-1993) (La crise sanitaire en Russie. II. Évolution des causes de décès : comparaison avec la France et l'Angleterre (1970-1993)) (p. 945-982)

In order to increase our understanding of the unfavourable trend in Russian mortality after the 1960s, we compare it with the trends in two Western countries. France and England and Wales, for which continuous series of deaths by cause are available for the same period. The increasing gap between Russia and the other two countries is largely due to diverging trends in mortality from cardio-vascular diseases. After 1970, mortality from this group of causes decreased in France and Britain, but increased in Russia. Death from violence also contributed to this difference. In Russia mortality from this cause is linked to trends in alcohol consumption. The number of violent deaths decreased significantly following the anti-alcohol campaign introduced by Gorbachev, but increased again after 1987, as the effects of the campaign were off. ln 1993 deaths from violence, specially homicide, increased again at an even more rapid pace. However, some causes of death are less unfavourable in Russia. Except in 1993, deaths from infectious diseases and from diseases of the respiratory system have declined. Mortality from neoplasms is equal to that in France and England for men, and is lower for women. However, unfavourable trends observed for cancers of particular sites (lung, breast, intestins) suggest that deaths from these causes will become soon an important determinant of degradation. (RUSSIA, FRANCE, ENGLAND, MORTALITY TRENDS, CAUSES OF DEATH, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

95.46.19 - French - Pierre SURAULT, Université de Poitiers, Faculté de Sciences Economiques, IERS-URA CNRS 952, Poitiers (France) Changing patterns in suicide in France (Variations sur les variations du suicide en France) (p. 983-1012)

Between 1950 and 1990 movements in the suicide rate differed by sex, age, and period. In particular, suicide by young people increases steadily after World War II. The higher suicide rate recorded during the 1960s spread to all age group between 1976 and the middle 1980s, when the trend was reversed in all generations. The unexpected and poorly documented break during the mid 1980s appears to be a period effect. Hypothetical explanations for these movements have suggested a renewal of social bonds, and more specifically at strenghtening of family ties which had been under strain since the 1960s, improvements in medical and psychiatric services for the most vulnerable and changed social and economic conditions, e.g. missive unemployment, insecurity, greater social inequalities and early excIusion from the labour market. (FRANCE, SUICIDE, YOUTH, MORTALITY TRENDS)

95.46.20 - French - Sabrina PRATI, Universita La Sapienza, Rome (Italy) A method of analysis and interpretation of concurrent cause-specific death rates (Une méthode d'analyse et d'interprétation des risques concurrents de mortalité par cause) (p. 1013-1031)

All individuals during their lifetimes are exposed, to mortality from different causes, which are competing risks. Several statistical models have attempted to deal with this problem, but most start with the easier hypothesis that the risks are independent of each other. Such a hypothesis is harder to satisfy in the case of chronic pathological processes, which are strongly correlated with predisposing factors. In such cases, it preferable to introduce individual factors into the analysis (e.g. bio-physiological characteristics or lifestyles). These factors can be used to predict overall mortality rates or those for some major causes of death. A logistic model was applied to individual data obtained from a long-term longitudinal study. A vector of probabilities (one for every possible cause) was estimated for each individual. Various issues relating to competing mortality risks from different causes may be approched from a new angle. (METHODOLOGY, MORTALITY MEASUREMENT, CAUSES OF DEATH, STOCHASTIC MODELS)

95.46.21 - French - Alessandra BURGIO, Ministerio della Sanita, Rome (Italy), and Luisa FROVA, ISTAT, Servizio Sanita, Rome (Italy) Mortality projections by causes of death, extrapolation of trends, or age-period-cohort models (Projections de mortalité par cause de décès : extrapolation tendancielle ou modèle âge-période-cohorte) (p. 1031-1052)

An age-cohort model is used to project mortality from specific causes and the results are compared with those from a more determinist method of analysing times series, based on an adjustment of period data by analytic functions. This method is applied to Italian statistics for those aged 60 and older. In this population neoplasms and cardio-vascular disease are important causes of death. The mortality rates used for five-year groups based on age, sex, and cause of death were supplied by WHO for 1951-1986. First, results from a projection for 1971-1986 based on death rates between 1951 and 1986 were compared with actual data. The death rate was then projected to 2020, on the basis of rates for the period 195I-1986. The results and theoretical considerations clearly show the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods of projection used. (ITALY, MORTALITY, PROJECTIONS, CAUSES OF DEATH, AGED)

95.46.22 - French - Jacques HENRIPIN, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Québec H3C 3J7 (Canada) Financial transfers from individuals with high fertility to those with low fertility (Les cadeaux financiers des surféconds aux sous-féconds) (p. 1053-1078)

Financial transfers between more fertile and less fertile members of a cohort are made indirectly through payment of taxes and the provision of certain services related to age, such as education, health, and pensions. Those whose fertility is low subsidize their more fertile contemporaries by contributing to the cost of education; the more fertile produce taxpayers who will, in their turn, become contributors to health and pension funds. The age distribution of the population plays a crucial part in this process of redistribution, and the author assesses its impact by using stable population models. When a population is relatively old, net transfers between groups may be substantial, and benefit those in groups with low fertility, especially those who have substantially less than the average number of children. If financial transfers, such as family allowances were regarded as "gifts" from those with high fertility to others they would be of an order of magnitude similar to that in of Frtance, but the differences with respect to family size would be more marked. (ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, FINANCING)

95.46.23 - French - Laurent TOULEMON, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France) Few couples remain voluntarily childless (Très peu de couples restent volontairement sans enfant) (p. 1079-1110)

Childlessness remains uncommon in France, compared to other European countries. In France, the proportion of women remaining childless has declined from 25% to 10% for the cohorts born between 1900 and 1940. For women born in 1940-50, only 4% of the couples never tried to have a child. Half of childless couples are involuntarily childless, because of sterility problems. The proportion of childless women is increasing for recent cohorts, mostly because of the reappearence of the possibility not to have a child. But at the same time, more and more couples will have to face physiologic problems, as a consequence of the nowadays delay in the moment when couples try to have their first child. (FRANCE, INFERTILITY, COHORT ANALYSIS, TRENDS)

95.46.24 - French - Evelyne LAPIERRE-ADAMCYK, Karen LEHRHAUPT, Département de Démographie, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Québec H3C 3J7 (Canada), and Céline LE BOURDAIS, INRS-Urbanisation, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Montréal, QC (Canada)

Leaving home. Young Canadians born between 1921 and 1960 (Les départs du foyer parental des jeunes Canadiens nés entre 1921 et 1960) (p. 1111-1136)

Using retrospective data taken from the General Social Survey carried out by Statistique Canada in 1990, the authors study leaving-home patterns of young Canadians born between 1921 and 1960. Age and leaving home is lower among those who became adults after the Second World War. We then show that the same demographic and sociocultural factors may often affect the pattern of leaving home differently for men and women. For women, cohort, relations with the family of origin, and education are important. By contrast, economic factors seem to be more important in the case of men. The differences are less marked, when leaving home is linked to the formation of a union. (CANADA, YOUTH, DEPARTURES, FAMILY LIFE CYCLE)

95.46.25 - French - Bernard ZARCA, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France) Inheritance and social mobility within sibships (L'héritage et la mobilité sociale au sein de la fratrie. II. L'activité professionnelle et la mobilité sociale différentielles des soeurs) (p. 1137-1154)

In the first part of this article, the author provided evidence that there was a link between inheritance received and social mobility of brothers, in spite of the hierarchy principle which favours the eldest son, as well as a link between celibacy and homogamy, which contribute to the reproduction of social classes at the family level. Social mobility, whether upward or downward, concerns families, rather than individuals. In the second part the author focuses attention on the occupational, social, and matrimonial life histories of sisters. Whilst sons tended to inherit their father's occupational position, the mother's occupation influences that of her daughters. A daughter is more likely to be professionals active when her brothers are upwardly mobile. As this applies in all social groups shows the importance of the family in the reproduction of different social groups. (SIBLINGS, INHERITANCE, SOCIAL MOBILITY)

95.46.26 - French - Saeed PAIVANDI, CRIPPE, Sciences de l'Education, Université Paris-VIII, Paris (France) Demographic analysis of illiteracy in Iran (L'analyse démographique de l'analphabétisme en Iran) (p. 1153-1184)

Since 1985, the growth of adult literacy in Iran has been impressive. Twelve million were enrolled in literacy courses during the past 12 years; the literacy rate improved by 12 points during the preceding five years, and the number of illiterates was reduced siginificantly since data on the educational level of the population became available (11.9 million in 1991, against 14.8 million in 1986). These figures have been achived in the context of the high ideological (Islamic) content of education, and in particular in literacy campaigns (the content of textbooks, as well as the careful selection of instructors). In this article we analyze recent trens, and stress the reduction in inequality of literary rates between the centre and the peripheral regions, between town and country and between the two sexes. Quantitative methods and diagrams are used to show the relationship between the size of the literate population and a number of social and economic indicators. This analysis raises a number of sociological problems relating to the population of Iran in general. Finally, the paper deals with the impact of education on the demographic behaviour of the population, and especially of women. (IRAN, LITERACY, SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIFFERENTIALS)

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