Back to home page

1993-94 - VOLUME 19, NUMBER 3

95.43.1 - German - Johannes OTTO, Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung, 65180 Wiesbaden (Germany) World population: post trends, current structures, future development (Weltbevölkerung - bisherige Entwiklungen, gegenwärtige Strukturen und zukünftige Trends) (p. 323-363)

It is estimated that there were some 5.6 billion inhabitants on earth, as of 1994. The rates of annual growth peaked at 2.1% in the period 1965-1970. But, due to demographic inertia, the annual growth rate of the world population will only reach a maximum between 1995 and 2000 with approximately 94 million people and this will occur practically exclusively in the developing countries. It is in Africa that the highest growth rates have been recorded with slightly under 3%, while Asia and Latin America follow with values close to 1.8%. The present article describes the variations between the major regions of the world with regard to fertility and mortality levels and trends. The author also emphasises the differences in age structures and levels of urbanisation. Finally, he describes the main trends in international migration, dealing separately with the case of refugees. To conclude, he presents the most recent mid- and long-term population forecasts of the United Nations Population Division. (WORLD POPULATION, DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILES, POPULATION PROJECTIONS)

95.43.2 - German - Paul DEMENY, Center for Policy Studies, The Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017 (U.S.A.)

Policies aimed at reducing high birth rates: an issue from the demand point of view (Politische Massnahmen zur Reduzierung eines hohen Geburtenniveaus: Eine Sache der Nachfrage) (p. 365-375)

There are two kinds of fertility policy in countries where there is a high birth rate: one of them aims at increasing the supply of contraceptive methods and at directing it towards those people most in need, while the other attempts to obtain an increase in the demand for contraceptives. This latter category has been quite neglected up until now and the author explains why lie finds that abnormal. The fertility policies which are based on demand require a "constitutional structural" approach to development and do not spontaneously go hand in hand with programmes of a sectorial nature which are those preferred by current development policies. By making a periodical evaluation of the effects of sectorial programmes on the factors which determine motivations with regard to demographic behaviour, it should be possible to find the means of curing this negligence of which the "demand side" is a victim in the search for a fertility decline. (FAMILY PLANNING POLICY, FERTILITY DECLINE, SUPPLY AND DEMAND)

1993-94 - VOLUME 19, NUMBER 4

95.43.3 - German - Jürgen DORBRITZ 1994 Report on the population situation of Germany (Bericht 1994 über die demographische Lage in Deutschland) (p. 393-473)

The year 1993, in Germany, saw a continuation of the 1992 trends with regard to population matters, with the contrast between the ex-Federal territory and the new Länder still as noticeable. The increase in the overall population was only due to the western part of the country, while the demographic decline of the eastern part is slowing down a little. The report analyses in detail all the components of these various trends by comparing systematically ex-FRG and ex-DDR and by comparing 1993 to previous years. It is obviously not possible to make any conclusion on the demographic dynamics of the two parts of the country drawing closer. (GERMANY, POPULATION SITUATION, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY)

95.43.4 - German - Rainer MÜNZ and Ralf ULRICH Demographic trends in East Germany and some of its regions. Analysis and forecasts until 2010 (Demographische Entwiklung in Osdeutschland und in ausgewählten Regionen. Analyse und Prognose bis 2010) (p. 475-515)

East Germany is currently being exposed to demographic unheaval which has resulted in the net emigration of more than one million people between 1989 and 1993 and in a decline of 65% in both birth and marriage rates. Is East Germany destined to become depopulated? The authors attempt to make population projections for ex-East Germany and for eight of its regions up until 2010. They note that the migratory balance is already positive in some of the regions and will soon become so in a few others and they perceive a partial reversal of fortunes for the birth rate which has been declining since 1990. But any feeble attempts to climb back up again will not prevent the population from declining by about 20% in 20 years. This period will leave a deep scar on the age pyramid which will have consequences over the decades to come. Population ageing is a widespread and continual phenomenon and its economic and social effects should increase over the next twenty years and continue to make themselves felt for a long time to come. (GERMANY, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY, POPULATION PROJECTIONS)

95.43.5 - German - Hartmut WENDT Immigration and internal migration in Germany, with a particular analysis of East-West movements (Wanderungen nach und innerhalb von Deutschland unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Ost-West Wanderungen) (p. 517-540)

Prior to the reunification of Germany, the balance of external migration was positive in West Germany while it was negative in the East. Today, migratory movements are more than ever responsible for the population trends in Germany. The author has attempted to provide an overview of trends, volume and areas of origin of immigration in Germany, dealing in a much more detailed fashion with the movements from East to West, the role of immigrants of German origin and the case of people requesting political asylum. In the second part of the article, the author examines trends in internal migration over time. In the future, internal migration in Germany will mainly be influenced by the socioeconomic development of the new Länder, in the sense of a reduction in regional disparities. (GERMANY, IMMIGRATION, INTERNAL MIGRATION)

95.43.6 - German - Karl SCHWARZ The occupational activities of women during the course of their lifetime - yesterday and today (Frauenerwerbstätigkeit im Lebenslauf gestern und heute) (p. 541-575)

Women represented some 43% of the economically active German population in 1992. But the equality of the sexes on the labour market is still a far-off reality: the rate of male and female unemployment are respectively 6.2% and 10.3%. And this gap is even more noticeable in the new Länder. The proportion of economically active women varies significantly depending on their age and the number of children they have to bring up. The occupational career of a woman is more often interrupted than that of man. Furthermore, many more women than men choose to work on a part-time basis, which, in turn, results in them earning much less income. But things are beginning to change. Today, young women are practically as highly qualified as males of the same age and their activity rates depend on their level of education. When a comparison is made of earlier generations with more recent generations, the status of women is slowly beginning to reach that of males with respect to old age pensions and welfare benefits. (GERMANY, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, SEX DIFFERENTIALS)

Back to home page