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SEPTEMBER 1994 - VOLUME 20, NUMBER 3

95.17.1 - English - D. Gale JOHNSON, Department of Economics, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois (U.S.A.)

Effects of institutions and policies on rural population growth with application to China (p. 503-532)

Given the tensions between farm families and the government created by China's strict birth planning policy, consideration should be given to the combination of policies and institutions that will harmonize the interests of farmers with the stated goal of reducing the rate of population growth. The article presents evidence that, within relatively wide limits, the size of China's population will have little effect on per capita food supplies or real per capita income. Two policy changes - lowering the barriers to rural-urban migration and introducing long-term land use rights - if implemented would improve the circumstances of rural life and reduce desired fertility. Nevertheless, an additional substantial voluntary reduction in family size requires improving educational opportunities for rural youth and providing alternatives to Soils in achieving old-age security. A further reform of the land system that would permit the ownership, sale, and renting of farm land would go a long way toward providing such security. (CHINA, RURAL POPULATION, ANTINATALIST POLICY, RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION, AGRARIAN REFORM)

95.17.2 - English - Timothy J. HARTON, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, CO4 3SQ (U.K.), and Jeffrey G. WILLIAMSON, Department of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138 (U.S.A.) What drove the mass migrations from Europe in the late 19th century? (p. 533-560)

This article examines the cross-country and intertemporal determinants of overseas migration from Europe in the late 19th century. Using a new real wage data base, the results support the pioneering work of Richard Easterlin: rates of natural increase in Europe and income gaps between Europe and overseas were both important, while any additional influence associated with industrialization was modest. The network effects of previous migrants were very strong. The upswing of the emigration cycle was dominated by the earlier stages of the demographic transition and industrialization, reinforced by the rising stock of migrants abroad. On the downswing of the cycle these forces ebbed and were increasingly dominated by the convergence of real wages in the Old World on real wages in the New. (EUROPE, HISTORY, EMIGRATION, MIGRATION DETERMINANTS)

95.17.3 - English - Alan H. BITTLES, Department of Human Biology, Edith Cowan University, Perth, Western Australia (Australia) The role and significance of consanguinity as a demographic variable (p. 561-584)

In many regions of Asia and Africa consanguineous marriages - conventionally referring to unions between persons related as second cousins or closer - account for approximately 20 to 50% of all unions and, contrary to received opinion, there is no evidence of a significant decline in their popularity. Consanguinity generally is associated with increased fertility, due at least in part to younger maternal age at marriage. Postnatal mortality is higher among consanguineous progeny, with greatest effect in the first year of life due to the expression of detrimental recessive genes. There also is evidence of greater morbidity in children born to consanguineous parents, which may extend into adulthood. With unproved health care facilities, genetic disorders predictably will account for an increasing proportion of disease worldwide, and it is evident that this burden will fall disproportionately on countries and communities in which consanguinity is relatively frequent. However, it is important that the social and economic benefits of marriage to a close relative also be taken fully into consideration. (CONSANGUINEOUS MARRIAGE, FERTILITY, INFANT MORTALITY, GENETIC DISEASES)

95.17.4 - English - Arline T. GERONIMUS, Public Health Policy and Administration, and Research Affiliate, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, (U.S.A.), Sanders KORENMAN, Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (U.S.A.), and Marianne M. HILLEMEIER, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (U.S.A.)

Does young maternal age adversely affect child development? Evidence from cousin comparisons in the United States (p. 585-610)

Data from the US National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979-90 are used to estimate relations between maternal age at first birth and measures of early socioemotional and cognitive development of children. Cross-sectional estimates are compared to estimates based on comparisons of first cousins to gauge the importance of bias from family background heterogeneity. Consistent with previous literature, cross-sectional estimates suggest adverse consequences of teenage motherhood for child development. However, children of teen mothers appear to score no worse on measures of development than their first cousins whose mothers had first births after their teen years. These findings suggest that differences in family background of mothers (factors that precede their childbearing years) may account for the low scores observed among young children of teen mothers. Issues such as these related to selection into teenage childbearing in the US may be relevant for a variety of social settings and for domestic and international policy concerns. (UNITED STATES, ADOLESCENT FERTILITY, MATERNAL AGE, CHILD DEVELOPMENT)

95.17.5 - English - Dudley L. POSTON, Jr., Michael Xinxiang MAO, Department of Sociology, Texas A& M University, College Station, TX 77843-4351 (U.S.A.), and Mei-Yu YU, School of Nursing, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (U.S.A.) The global distribution of the overseas Chinese around 1990 (p. 631-646)

As a result of migration, often to geographically distant lands, today Chinese people are widely distributed outside China and live in almost every country of the world. Around 1990 almost 37 million overseas Chinese live in 136 countries, " overseas Chinese " being defined here as persons of Chinese ancestry living outside the People's Republic of China and Taiwan. More than 32 million of the overseas Chinese live in Asia, with more than three-quarters of them residing in four countries (Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, and Malaysia). Generally, the overseas Chinese tend to live in countries with large populations; and among the overseas Chinese living in Asia, their number in a country is inversely related to the distance of the country from Guangzhou (Canton). (CHINA, ASIA, EMIGRANTS)

DECEMBER 1994 - VOLUME 20, NUMBER 4

95.17.6 - English - Douglas S. MASSEY, Department of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA (U.S.A.) et al. An evaluation of international migration theory: The North American case (p. 699-752)

The article reviews empirical studies of international migration within the North American migratory system in order to evaluate the various theories that seek to explain the initiation and perpetuation of international movement. The review uncovers significant support for all theories, suggesting that they constitute complementary rather than competing explanations of migration. One criticism is that far too much research is focused on Mexico, whose unique relationship to the United States may make it unrepresentative of broader patterns and trends in migration. After discussing salient gaps in the research record and outlining promising directions for future study, the article attempts to construct a comprehensive model for understanding immigration into North America. (NORTHERN AMERICA, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, THEORETICAL MODELS)

95.17.7 - English - Hillard KAPLAN, Department of Anthropology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque (U.S.A.) Evolutionary and wealth flows theories of fertility: Empirical tests and new models (p. 753-792)

Caldwell's wealth flows theory of human family size predicts that children in high-fertility societies provide net economic wealth for parents. Models of fertility derived from evolutionary biology expect that all organisms will be designed to invest more resources in their offspring than they receive from them. These competing predictions were subjected to independent tests in three traditional societies in lowland South America. The results clearly showed that children produced no more than 25% of their total caloric needs between birth and 18 years of age and that grandparents worked hard to support their grandchildren rather than vice versa. No support for Caldwell's theory was found. A new theory of fertility decisions based upon evolutionary ecology is proposed, focusing on tradeoffs between fertility and the reproductive value of offspring, and between care of, and resource investment in, children. (POPULATION THEORY, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)

95.17.8 - English - Väinö KANNISTO, Jens LAURITSEN, A. Roger THATCHER and James W. VAUPEL, Aging Research Unit, Odense University Medical School, Campusvej 55, 5230 Odense M (Denmark) Reductions in mortality at advanced ages: Several decades of evidence from 27 countries (p. 793-810)

Can death rates be reduced for octogenarians, nonagenarians, and even centenarians? It is widely assumed that mortality at advanced ages is attributable to old age per se and that death rates at advanced ages cannot be substantially reduced. Using a larger body of data than previously available, the authors find that developed countries have made progress in reducing death rates even at the highest ages. Furthermore, the pace of this progress has accelerated over the course of the 20th century. In most developed countries outside Eastern Europe, average death rates at ages 80-99 have declined at a rate of 1 to 2% per year for females and 0.5 to 1.5% per year for males since the 1960s. For an aggregate of nine countries with reliable data through 1991, the annual average rate of improvement between 1982-86 and 1987-91 was 1.7% for male octogenarians and 2.5% for female octogenarians. (AGED, LIFE SPAN, MORTALITY DECLINE)

95.17.9 - English - Richard LEETE, Economic Planning Unit, Prime Minister's Department, Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)

The continuing flight from marriage and parenthood among the overseas Chinese in East and Southeast Asia: Dimensions and implications (p. 811-830)

This analysis reviews the recent marital fertility behavior of the overseas Chinese - particularly in Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, and Taiwan - and notes some policy considerations. The tendency toward delay of marriage has turned into a major flight from marriage, particularly among the most urbanized overseas Chinese. Economic factors, combined with increased education, appear to be the main determinants of the reluctance to marry and bear children. An important policy question is the extent to which governments in the region should merely adapt existing institutions to the changed behavior or, rather, attempt to directly influence marriage and childbearing through explicit pronatalist policies. (SOUTHEASTERN ASIA, CHINA, IMMIGRANTS, NUPTIALITY, FERTILITY)

95.17.10 - English - Gerhard K. HEILIG, IIASA, Laxenburg (Austria) Neglected dimensions of global land-use change: Reflections and data (p. 831-860)

The author questions the conventional approach to studying global land-use changes, which is focused on agriculture-related alterations driven by population growth. He argues the need to abandon the oversimplified model of a linear relationship between population growth, increase in food demand, and agricultural expansion and intensification, leading to deforestation and land-cover modification. There are numerous other types of land-cover modification, such as those caused by shifts in lifestyles and food preferences, manmade catastrophes, wars, urban infrastructure expansion, changes in industrial production, fossil resource exploration, and modes of transportation. The author presents FAO data which indicate that a significant proportion of arable land worldwide is cultivated for lifestyle-related products, such as stimulants, sugar, and tobacco. A review of historical trends also shows that changes in land-use patterns were frequently linked to changes in lifestyles. (CULTIVATED LAND, LAND USE, ECOLOGY)

95.17.11 - English - Thomas J. ESPENSHADE, Department of Sociology, Office of Population Research, Princeton University, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton (U.S.A.)

Does the threat of border apprehension deter undocumented US immigration? (p. 871-892)

The study explores whether US Border Patrol enforcement actively discourages undocumented migration at its source. Two models are compared. One includes such familiar determinants of undocumented migration as relative economic conditions between the United States and Mexico, the size of the Mexican young-adult population, and implementation of the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act. An alternative model relates the magnitude of undocumented migration to lagged monthly values of estimated apprehension probabilities, on the assumption that migrants form expectations about the apprehension risks they will face on the basis of experiences of other recent undocumented migrants. The study shows not only that both models have some explanatory power, but also that the influence of perceived risks of apprehension all but disappears when both sets of predictor variables are combined into a single model. Although the total undocumented flow is largely unaffected by variations in the intensity of Border Patrol enforcement, border control policies may nevertheless exert a broader deterrent influence. (UNITED STATES, ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION, MIGRATION DETERMINANTS, IMMIGRATION POLICY)

MARCH 1995 - VOLUME 21, NUMBER 1

95.17.12 - English - Matthew LOCKWOOD, Department of Sociology, School of African and Asian Studies, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, Sussex, BN1 9RH (U.K.) Structure and behaviour in the social demography of Africa (p. 1-32)

The role of culture in determining demographic behavior in sub-Saharan Africa has attracted increasing attention. But in theorizing about 'culture,' demographers have tended to draw on the work of British structural functional anthropologists, who saw behavior as determined by social norms that were in turn generated by underlying social structures, functional in nature. This has led to a number of features: an emphasis on macro-level associations; a working assumption that behavior is governed by norms; the analysis of change solely in terms of external forces; and the use of generalized descriptions of both ideas and behavior in African societies. The author argues for a complementary, micro-level approach that emphasizes the meaning of norms to actors in society. Examples based on existing ethnographic material from Sierra Leone and the Gambia are used to show how different people deploy different normative notions and how discrepancies between norms and behavior are dealt with. This material is then placed within a wider setting to provide an alternative hypothesis relating social structure and changing behavior. (AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, SOCIAL SYSTEM, SOCIAL NORMS, BEHAVIOUR)

95.17.13 - English - Richard G. ROGERS, Department of Sociology, Population Program, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado (U.S.A.)

Sociodemographic characteristics of long-lived and health individuals (p. 33-58)

Most mortality studies have explored the characteristics that contribute to early death. This article instead examines factors that lead to longer lives, to determine whether healthy practices contribute years of life synergistically, additively, or partially, and to show age and sex differences in cause-specific mortality. The results indicate that life expectancies in the United States for healthy agers approach 83 years for males and 93 for females. Even among healthy agers a large sex gap in mortality persists. These life expectancies and, concomitantly, specific causes of death are affected by demographic, socioeconomic, and health factors, especially by functional status. How adeptly we eliminate or reduce disability and disease and improve self-perceived health status determines the length and quality of life. (UNITED STATES, LIFE SPAN, HEALTH, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY)

95.17.14 - English - Chai Bin PARK, School of Public Health, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 96822 (U.S.A.), and Nam-Hoon CHO, Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs, Seoul (Korea) Consequences of son preference in a low-fertility society: Imbalance of the sex ratio at birth in Korea (p. 59-84)

Many demographers and population planners have considered son preference in Asian countries to be a major barrier to reducing fertility. Some of these countries, such as South Korea and China, however, have recently achieved replacement-level fertility, in spite of their strong adherence to son preference. By use of sex-selective abortion and other means, the sex ratio at birth in these countries has been changed at three levels: in the population at large, between families, and within families. At the population level a rising sex ratio has been recorded; at the between-family level an inverse relationship between sex ratio and family size has been observed; and at the within-family level a rapidly rising sex ratio with birth order has been noted. This article presents empirical evidence of these changes and discusses their implications, focusing on the situation in Korea. (KOREA, SEX RATIO, SEX PREFERENCE, FERTILITY DECLINE)

95.17.15 - English - Daniel M. GOODKIND, Department of Sociology, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (U.S.A.) Vietnam's one-or-two-child policy in action (p. 85-112)

After many years of encouraging family planning, Vietnam formally instituted a comprehensive policy in 1988 that called upon most parents to limit themselves to one or two children. This article explores the background of the Vietnamese policy, the extent of its implementation, and response at the local level. The one-or-two-child policy is being implemented with far more vigor in certain parts of the North than in the South, owing to different regional population pressures and political cultures. Policy enforcement includes strong social pressures, the imposition of modest fines and, for government cadres, loss of jobs, although such measures are not universally enforced and policy violations persist despite them. As occurred in China during the 1980s, Vietnam's recent free-market reforms have contributed to greater peasant independence from state control and a weakened authority of local cadres, both of which have rendered enforcement of the national fertility policy more difficult. (VIET NAM, ANTINATALIST POLICY, ECONOMIC POLICY)

95.17.16 - English - Elisha P. RENNE, Department of Sociology, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria (Nigeria) Houses, fertility, and the Nigerian Land Use Act (p. 113-126)

This study discusses implications for fertility decline of changes in family houses and houseplot transfers in an Ekiti Yoruba village in southwestern Nigeria. Village land tenure generally derives from kinship ties, with new houseplot claims secured by a family house, occupied by one's children. However, houseplot land is increasingly being secured by nonfamily members through cash payments, and houses built on these plots are being occupied by tenants rather than descendants, weakening the economic salience of kinship. This tendency toward the commoditization of rural land and of family houses is countered by the federal Land Use Act, which discourages the sale of rural land and contributes to a perceived need for many children to maintain one's property holdings. The study suggests that fertility change can only be understood in the broader context of political economy. (NIGERIA, AGRARIAN REFORM, FERTILITY TRENDS)

95.17.17 - English - Kenneth HILL, Department of Population Dynamics, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland 21205 (U.S.A.), and Dawn M. UPCHURCH, Department of Community Health Science, School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, CA (U.S.A.) Gender differences in child health: Evidence from the demographic and health surveys (p. 127-152) Data from the Demographic and Health Surveys indicate that girls in many developing countries have higher mortality in childhood relative to boys than would be expected given the experience of European-origin populations at similar levels of mortality. This mortality disadvantage is particularly large between the ages of 1 and 5, and in the countries of the Middle East. Surprisingly, girls show no disadvantage for a number of health status indicators. They are reported to suffer less often from respiratory and diarrheal infections, are less likely to be stunted or wasted, and are as likely as boys to be immunized. Only in use of health services do girls show lower rates than boys. Most of the health status indicators are uncorrelated with the female mortality disadvantage, though high immunization levels relative to boys are associated with low mortality disadvantages. The association with immunization remains significant even when educational differences are controlled. (INFANT MORTALITY, MATERNAL AND CHILD HEALTH, SEX DIFFERENTIALS)

JUNE 1995 - VOLUME 21, NUMBER 2

95.17.18 - English - C. Alison McINTOSH and Jason L. FINKLE, Center for Population Planning, University of Michigan, Michigan, Illinois (U.S.A.) The Cairo Conference on Population and Development: A new paradigm? (p. 223-260)

The United Nations population conference held in Cairo in September 1994 departed in several respects from its predecessors at Bucharest and Mexico City. The end of the Cold War, the election of a liberal President in the United States, and an unprecedented level of participation by nongovernmental organizations contributed to a political environment in which orthodox population policy was devalued. In its place, the conference outlined a 'new paradigm' in which the reduction of global population growth was replaced by an individual-level model with women's health, rights, status, and empowerment at its heart. The authors argue that this result was primarily a consequence of an extraordinarily effective campaign undertaken by the international women's movement. The article analyzes the politics of the main protagonists: the women's movement, the United States government, and the Holy See. The authors conclude that there is a disjunction between the political process that produced the Program of Action and the strategies that will be required to mobilize the resources and commitment for its implementation. (UN SYSTEM, CONFERENCES, IDEOLOGY, POLITICS, WOMEN'S LIBERATION MOVEMENTS)

95.17.19 - English - Etienne VAN DE WALLE, Department of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA (U.S.A.), and Helmut V. MUHSAM, Department of Statistics, Hebrew University, Jerusalem (Israel)

Fatal secrets and the French fertility transition (p. 261-280)

Sixteenth- to eighteenth-century literary descriptions of French contraceptive behavior are examined for what they tell us about the means through which that country's fertility decline was achieved. A well-known 1778 text by Moheau on 'fatal secrets,' and strikingly similar texts from the period, shed little light on the subject. Unambiguous evidence comes from libertine writers who address extramarital situations. They point to a variety of techniques, including mutual masturbation, sodomy, and coitus interruptus. The last does not seem to be the preferred contraceptive method out of wedlock. Withdrawal is usually presented as a learned technique rather than as one that can be reinvested by every couple, and it is reputedly unreliable. Few sources document the spread of withdrawal to marital situations. (FRANCE, HISTORY, CONTRACEPTIVE METHODS, TRADITIONAL CONTRACEPTION)

95.17.20 - English - Anju MALHOTRA, Reeve VANNEMAN, Department of Sociology, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland (U.S.A.), and Sunita KISHOR, Demographic and Health Surveys, Macro International, Calverton, Maryland (U.S.A.) Fertility, dimensions of partriarchy, and development in India (p. 281-306)

This article examines the macro-level linkages between the cultural position of women and fertility levels in India. A major aim is to see whether the various dimensions of patriarchy are separable and distinct in their relationship to regional variations in fertility levels. District-level data, compiled primarily from the 1981 census and some secondary sources, are used to test the argument that fertility is lower in the districts of South India, where kinship and economic patterns are favorable to women, than in North India, where such patterns are less favorable. Three specific dimensions of patriarchy are examined: the marriage system, means of active discrimination against women, and women's economic value. The results confirm a strong macro-level relationship between patriarchy and fertility levels in India, both with and without controls for development and social stratification. The fact that indicators of social development show a strong negative relationship with fertility provides support for policy initiatives directed at not only women's, but general, welfare. (INDIA, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, WOMEN'S STATUS, PATRIARCHY)

95.17.21 - English - Geoffrey McNICOLL, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra (Australia) On population growth and revisionism: Further questions (p. 307-340)

Contradicting alarmist accounts, the 'revisionist' view of the effects of rapid population growth is that on balance such growth is a fairly neutral factor in economic development. The arguments supporting this view encapsulate much of what modern economics has to say on the topic, as contained in the research summarized in the 1986 US National Academy of Sciences report, Population Growth and Economic Development: Policy Questions, and in a number of studies undertaken subsequently. Yet these conclusions remain controversial. This essay probes the sources of that controversy by asking a series of questions beyond those addressed by the 1986 report. The questions concern the scope of application of the mainline arguments and approaches, potentially relevant issues that have been sidelined, and the framing of the population-growth debate. The resulting discussion points to significant aspects of the population problem that appear to elude economic analysis. The comparisons it calls for are among possible worlds rather than among income differences that a few years' growth could offset. (POPULATION THEORY, POPULATION GROWTH, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT)

95.17.22 - English - James C. WITTE, Department of Sociology, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208 (U.S.A.), and Gert G. WAGNER, Department of Public Administration, Ruhr University of Bochum, Bochum (Germany) Declining fertility in East Germany after unification: A demographic response to socioeconomic change (p. 387-398)

This investigation draws on detailed, longitudinal sample survey data to examine declining fertility in East Germany. Since the unification of Germany in 1990, the fertility rate in East Germany has been halved - falling well below that of West Germany, which was already among the lowest in the world. The authors assess the manner in which these changes in individual behavior can best be understood as responses to socioeconomic change. They advocate using a broad sociological perspective to view demographic trends - as well as other behavioral and attitudinal changes accompanying unification - as separate, but related, threads in an overall process of assimilation. (GERMANY, FERTILITY DECLINE, POLITICAL SYSTEMS, SOCIAL CHANGE, RESEARCH METHODS)

SEPTEMBER 1995 - VOLUME 21, NUMBER 3

95.17.23 - English - Andrzej KULCZYCKI, Center for Population Planning and International Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (U.S.A.) Abortion policy in postcommunist Europe: The conflict in Poland (p. 471-506)

During 1989-93, in the midst of profound systemic changes, Poland experienced a divisive abortion debate. Although the issue of abortion was reexamined throughout East Central Europe, nowhere was it as fiercely contested as in Poland, where the Catholic Church spearheaded an intensive campaign to make abortion illegal. These actions assumed great significance because abortion had become a key method of birth control due primarily to the failure of the state to adequately support family planning services. While this campaign furthered the Pope's goal of setting a precedent for the former socialist countries of the region and elsewhere, the dispute was also a critical test case for all participants, including women's and family planning groups. The article seeks to explain why one of the most liberal abortion statutes in the world was radically reversed and to assess the implications of these policy changes. (POLAND, ABORTION POLICY, RIGHT TO LIFE MOVEMENT)

95.17.24 - English - Bernard GILLAND World population, economic growth, and energy demand, 1990-2100: A review of projections (p. 507-540)

The 1993 World Energy Council (WEC) projections for world population in 2100 are compared with those of the United Nations, and the long-term implications of population growth are discussed. The World Energy Council projections for primary energy consumption in 2020 are presented, and supplementary projections based on other rates of economic growth are given. The WEC illustrative scenarios for energy consumption in 2100 are described, and an additional scenario is given, based on a lower assessment of the contribution from new renewable energy sources. The projections for atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and rise in global mean temperature in 2100 are summarized. It is concluded that world energy consumption in 2100 will probably be more than double the 1990 figure, that half of it will be supplied by fossil fuels, and that a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration compared with the preindustrial level is unavoidable. (ECOLOGY, POPULATION GROWTH, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ENERGY CONSUMPTION, LONG TERM PROJECTIONS)

95.17.25 - English - S. Philip MORGAN and Bhanu B. NIRAULA, Sociology Department, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA (U.S.A.) Gender inequality and fertility in two Nepali villages (p. 541-562)

Two villages in Nepal chosen for study were expected to produce a sharp contrast in gender inequality, especially in women's autonomy. Autonomy was measured through questions to wives about their freedom of movement and about their role in household decisionmaking. The two settings provide a sharp contrast in women's autonomy by these measures. The authors argue that this contrast in autonomy influences fertility: greater autonomy reduces the desire for additional children, increases contraceptive use, and lowers levels of unmet need for contraception. The empirical analysis supports these arguments. (NEPAL, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, SEX DISCRIMINATION, WOMEN'S STATUS, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY)

95.17.26 - English - Jiali LI, National Center for Children in Poverty, Columbia University School of Public Health, Morningside Heights, New York, NY 10027 (U.S.A.)

China's one-child policy: How and how well has it worked? A case study of Hebei province, 1979-88 (p. 563-586)

Using data from the 1988 Two-per-Thousand National Fertility Survey in Hebei Province, this study addresses the question of how, and how well, the one-child policy in China worked during its first decade, 1979-88. Even though the Chinese government developed such strong policy measures as the birthquota system, one-child certificate incentives, and penalties to promote the policy, they were implemented unevenly over time and among the two groups of people with differential types of household registration-peasants and workers. China's one-child policy was highly effective only among women with a worker registration, who were under greater government control. The policy measures overwhelmingly overrode the effects of socioeconomic and cultural factors on the likelihood of their having a child beyond the first. However, the one-child policy was not as effective as expected for the majority of Chinese women, who were members of households registered as peasants and lived under less government control. These women continued to have more than one child. Multivariate analysis of the fertility behavior of these women reveals that son preference strongly affected the probability of having a second and third child, even more so than the level of education, the degree of urbanization, and population policy measures. (CHINA, ANTINATALIST POLICY, EVALUATION, SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIFFERENTIALS)

95.17.27 - English - Thomas HOMER-DIXON, Peace and Conflict Studies Program, University of Toronto, 215 Huron St, Toronto, Ont. M5S 1A1 (Canada) The Ingenuity gap: Can poor countries adapt to resource scarcity? (p. 587-612)

As human population and material consumption increase in coming decades, scarcities of natural resources will intensify in some regions. A society's ability to adapt to these scarcities is influenced by its ability to supply enough ideas or 'ingenuity.' As scarcity worsens, some poor societies will face a widening gap between their need for and their supply of ingenuity. In particular, the supply of social ingenuity (in the form of new and reformed institutions) will be vulnerable to stresses generated by the very scarcities ingenuity is needed to solve. A society with a serious and chronic ingenuity gap will face declining social wellbeing and perhaps civil turmoil. (DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, NATURAL RESOURCES, IMPOVERISHMENT, ADJUSTMENT)

95.17.28 - English - Arlen D. CAREY, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816 (U.S.A.), and Joseph LOPREATO, Department of Sociology, University of Texas, Austin, TX (U.S.A.)

The evolutionary demography of the fertility - mortality quasi-equilibrium (p. 613-630)

A close-to-equilibrium relationship between levels of fertility and mortality has characterized most of the history of the human species. On average, women have given birth to two reproductive offspring, plus a small fraction. This quasi-equilibrium is in part the effect of neurobiological and life history characteristics that enhance reproductive success. The latter include cultural factors, age at sexual maturity, fecundity, family size, duration of the reproductive period, age-specific probabilities of survival, and epigenetic rules that guide response to changing environmental conditions. Among such rules, the authors hypothesize a 'two-child psychology.' Its basic operative mechanisms seem to be: (1) a neurobiological capacity to respond to certain environmental stimuli useful to gauge probabilities of offspring survival, and (2) a quest for creature comforts. The greater the perceived probability of offspring survival within a population, the more intense the two-child psychology. The greater the quest for creature comforts, the keener and more widespread the two-child psychology. (POPULATION CONTROL, PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS)

95.17.29 - English - Douglas S. MASSEY, Department of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA (U.S.A.) The new immigration and ethnicity in the United States (p. 631-652)

The article assesses the prospects for the assimilation of new immigrant groups and judges their likely effects on the society, culture, and language of the United States. It places the new immigration in historical perspective and indicates the distinctive features that set it apart from earlier influxes. It appraises the structural context for the incorporation of today's immigrants and argues that because of fundamental differences, their assimilation will not be as rapid or complete as that achieved by European immigrants in the past. The article concludes by suggesting how the nature of ethnicity will change as a result of a new immigration that is linguistically concentrated, geographically clustered, and temporally continuous into an American society that is increasingly stratified and unequal. (UNITED STATES, IMMIGRANTS, MIGRANT ASSIMILATION, ETHNICITY)

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