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1994 - VOLUME 31, NUMBER 2
95.09.1 - English - Duncan THOMAS, RAND, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407 (U.S.A.), and Ityai MUVANDI, Centre for African Family Studies, Box 60054, Nairobi (Kenya)
The demographic transition in Southern Africa: Another look at the evidence from Botswana and Zimbabwe (p. 185-208)
Botswana and Zimbabwe have been acclaimed as being on the vanguard of the demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper examines the comparability of the CPS and the DHS data for each country and finds that part of the observed decline in aggregate fertility rates in both countries can be attributed to differences in sample composition. Women of the same cohort tend to be better educated in the second survey relative to the first. This fact explains part - but not all - of the observed fertility decline; for example, it appears to account for up to half the observed decline among women age 25-34 in 1984 in Zimbabwe. (BOTSWANA, ZIMBABWE, FERTILITY DECLINE, QUALITY OF DATA)
95.09.2 - English - Ann K. BLANC and Shea O. RUTSTEIN, DHS Program, Macro International Inc., 11785 Beltsville Dr., Calverton, MD 20705 (U.S.A.) The demographic transition in Southern Africa: Yet another look at the evidence from Botswana and Zimbabwe (p. 209-216)
After yet another examination of the evidence on fertility decline in Botswana and Zimbabwe, we reach two main conclusions. First, both samples appear to represent the same national populations: 1) the distributions of women by education in the 1984 and the 1988 surveys do not differ to a statistically significant degree, and 2) the mean number of children ever born is affected little by standardizing for the education distribution in each survey. Second, the most appropriate way to assess period fertility declines is to examine period fertility rates; adjustment for differences in the education distributions between the two surveys affects the magnitude of the declines in period fertility rates by only very small amounts. Thus, contrary to Thomas and Muvandi, we do not believe that purported differences in the samples between the CPS and the DHS surveys have resulted in an important overstatement of fertility declines. In the case of Zimbabwe, the DHS survey scheduled for 1994 will provide further evidence on the course of fertility transition. (BOTSWANA, ZIMBABWE, FERTILITY DECLINE, QUALITY OF DATA)
95.09.3 - English - Duncan THOMAS, RAND, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407 (U.S.A.), and Ityai MUVANDI, Centre for African Family Studies, Box 60054, Nairobi (Kenya) The demographic transition in Southern Africa: Reviewing the evidence from Botswana and Zimbabwe (p. 217-228)
Part, but not all, of the observed decline in the number of children ever born reported in the 1984 CPS and the 1988 DHS in Botswana and Zimbabwe can be attributed to differences in sample composition: women in the 1988 survey appear to be better educated than women of the same cohort in the 1984 survey. Blanc and Rutstein argue that differences in education levels in the pairs of surveys are not significant. However, weighted Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics, a comparison of average years of schooling, and the proportions of women who complete primary school or attend secondary school all indicate that the differences are, in fact, significant. This is true in both Botswana and Zimbabwe. Blanc and Rutstein also claim that these differences do not account for any of the observed decline in fertility between the survevs of women age 15 to 49. Their methodology follows cohorts of women rather than age-groups and thus cannot possibly address this issue. Furthermore, to interpret their results, response error and respondent education must be uncorrelated: this is a key assumption which is violated by the data. We stand by our conclusions and argue for caution when aggregate statistics from the CPS and the DHS are used to make projections about the course of fertility and population growth in Botswana and Zimbabwe. (BOTSWANA, ZIMBABWE, FERTILITY DECLINE, QUALITY OF DATA)
95.09.4 - English - Douglas L. ANDERTON, Andy B. ANDERSON, John Michael OAKES and Michael R. FRASER, Social and Demographic Research Institute, University of Massachusetts-Amherst, Box 34830, Amherst, MA 01003-4830 (U.S.A.) Environmental equity: The demographics of dumping (p. 229-248)
Research addressing "environmental equity" and "environmental racism" claims that facilities for treatment, storage, and disposal of hazardous wastes (TSDFs) are located disproportionately in minority areas. In the first comprehensive study of TSDFs to use census tract-level data, we find no nationally consistent and statistically significant differences between the racial or ethnic composition of tracts which contain commercial TSDFs and those which do not. TSDFs are more likely to be found in tracts with Hispanic groups, primarily in regions with the greatest percentage of Hispanics. Different geographic units of analysis elaborate on, but are consistent with, these results. (ENVIRONMENT, POLLUTANTS, GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION, ETHNIC MINORITIES)
95.09.5 - English - Barrett A. LEE, R.S. OROPESA and James W. KANAN, Department of Sociology and Population Research Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (U.S.A.) Neighborhood context and residential mobility (p. 249-270)
This paper extends the search for neighborhood contextual effects to residential mobility. We propose that neighborhood consists of subjective and objective domains, both of which are crosscut by substantive (social/physical) and temporal (current/change) dimensions. Measures of neighborhood characteristics consistent with our conceptualization are used to estimate the impact of context on mobility thoughts and on actual mobility in a sample of Nashville residents. Although individual statuses such as age and tenure remain important antecedents of mobility, subjective features of neighborhood context also play a role - albeit limited and indirect - in the decision to move or to stay. (UNITED STATES, RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY, MIGRATION DETERMINANTS, ENVIRONMENT)
95.09.6 - English - Timothy B. GAGE, Department of Anthropology and Department of Epidemiology, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12222 (U.S.A.)
Population variation in cause of death: Level, gender, and period effects (p. 271-296)
The trends in 13 cause of death categories are examined with respect to expectation of life, sex differences, and period effects while misclassification of cause of death is controlled. The results suggest that as mortality declines, 1) the increasingly U-shaped age pattern of mortality is a period effect associated with the infectious diseases, 2) the risks of both overall infectious and degenerative causes of death decline, and 3) infectious disease mortality declines more in males, while degenerative disease mortality declines more in females. Finally, the model shows that some contemporary populations are approaching the limits of reduction in mortality during infancy, childhood, and young adulthood. Past declines in the degenerative diseases, however, suggest that mortality may continue to decline. (MORTALITY TRENDS, CAUSES OF DEATH, SEX DIFFERENTIALS)
95.09.7 - English - Kenneth C. LAND, Department of Sociology and Center for Demographic Studies and Center for Aging and Human Development, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708-0088 (U.S.A.), Jack M. GURALNIK, Epidemiology, Demography, and Biometry Program, National Institute on Aging, 7201 Wisconsin Avenue, Bethesda, MD 20892 (U.S.A.), and Dan G. BLAZER, Office of Medical Education, Box 3005, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC 27710 (U.S.A.)
Estimating increment-decrement life tables with multiple covariates from panel data: The case of active life expectancy (p. 297-320)
A fundamental limitation of current multistate life table methodology - evident in recent estimates of active life expectancy for the elderly - is the inability to estimate tables from data on small longitudinal panels in the presence of multiple covariates (such as sex, race, and socioeconomic status). This paper presents an approach to such an estimation based on an isomorphism between the structure of the stochastic model underlying a conventional specification of the increment-decrement life table and that of Markov panel regression models for simple state spaces. We argue that Markov panel regression procedures can be used to provide smoothed or graduated group-specific estimates of transition probabilities that are more stable across short age intervals than those computed directly from sample data. We then join these estimates with increment-decrement life table methods to compute group-specific total, active, and dependent life expectancy estimates. To illustrate the methods, we describe an empirical application to the estimation of such life expectancies specific to sex, race, and education (years of school completed) for a longitudinal panel of elderly persons. We find that education extends both total life expectancy and active life expectancy. Education thus may serve as a powerful social protective mechanism delaying the onset of health problems at older ages. (METHODOLOGY, LIFE TABLES, MULTI-STATE LIFE TABLES, STOCHASTIC MODELS, LIFE EXPECTANCY)
95.09.8 - English - David A. LAM, Department of Economics, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48104-2590 (U.S.A.), Jeffrey A. MIRON, Department of Economics, Boston University, 270 Bay State Road, Boston, MA 02215 (U.S.A.), and Ann RILEY, Department of Demography, Georgetown University, Room 236 Poulton Hall, Washington, DC 20057-1043 (U.S.A.)
Modeling seasonality in fecundability, conceptions, and births (p. 321-348)
This paper develops a model of seasonal fluctuations in fecundability, conceptions, and births. We begin with a model of individual fecundability that combines behavioral and biological components, with particular attention to the roles of coital frequency, sperm concentration, fetal loss, and contraception. The individual-level model is then expanded into a model of seasonal fluctuations in births at the population level, which accounts explicitly for seasonal fluctuations in the size of the susceptible population. We illustrate the use of the model by analysing proposed explanations of birth seasonality that rely on extreme summer heat. (MODELIZATION, SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS, FECUNDABILITY, FERTILITY, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)
95.09.9 - English - Ronald D. LEE, Departments of Demography and Economics, University of California, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720 (U.S.A.), Patrick R. GALLOWAY, Department of Demography, University of California, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720 (U.S.A.), and Eugene A. HAMMEL, Departments of Demography and Anthropology, University of California, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720 (U.S.A.)
Fertility decline in Prussia: Estimating influences on supply, demand, and degree of control (p. 347-373)
Change in marital fertility in 407 Prussian Kreise from 1875 to 1910 is modeled to depend on the gap between the number of desired surviving births, N*, divided by child survival, s, and the number that would be born under natural marital fertility, M, given the age at marriage. Some fraction of this gap is averted, depending on the propensity to avert unwanted births, D. Although none of these components is observed directly, we can estimate each indirectly under strong assumptions. Decline in N*/s accounts for twice as much of the decline in fertility as does an increase in D. Natural fertility rose during the period. Unwanted births increased slightly, despite a tripling of births averted. The most important causes of decline in N* were increases in female labor supply, real income, and health workers. A rising level of education is the most important cause of increasing propensity to avert births. Demand-side changes were important causes of the transition, but changes in readiness to contracept also were important, as was the interaction of the two. (GERMANY, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, LEGITIMATE FERTILITY RATE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, MODELS)
1994 - VOLUME 31, NUMBER 3
95.09.10 - English - Debra FRIEDMAN, The University of Washington, Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 (U.S.A.), Michael HECHTER, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 (U.S.A.), and Satoshi KANAZAWA, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (U.S.A.)
A theory of the value of children (p. 375-402)
This paper uses a non-standard value assumption - uncertainty reduction - to explain parenthood. We begin by reviewing the inadequacies of normative and standard rational choice explanations of shifts in fertility behavior. Then we propose a theory of the value of children based on the uncertainty-reduction assumption. Next we generate a range of hypotheses that follow both from this assumption and from a subsidiary assumption of marital solidarity enhancement. Finally, we explore the extent to which implications based on these new ideas are supported by the relevant empirical literature. (VALUE OF CHILDREN, THEORY)
95.09.11 - English - James W. WOOD, Darryl J. HOLMAN, Population Research Institute and Department of Anthropology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (U.S.A.), Anatoli I. YASHIN, Centre for Health and Social Policy, Odense University, Odense, DK-5000 (Danemark), Raymond J. PETERSON, Department of Anthropology and Graduate Program in Genetics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (U.S.A.), Maxine WEINSTEIN, Department of Demography, Georgetown University, Washington, DC 20057 (U.S.A.), and Ming-Cheng CHANG, Taiwan Provincial Institute of Family Planning, Taichung, 400 (Taiwan)
A multistate model of fecundability and sterility (p. 403-426)
This paper develops a multistate hazards model for estimating fecundability and sterility from data on waiting times to conception. Important features of the model include separate sterile and nonsterile states, a distinction between preexisting sterility and sterility that begins after initiation of exposure, and log-normally distributed fecundability among nonsterile couples. Application of the model to data on first birth intervals from Taiwan, Sri Lanka, and the Amish shows that heterogeneity in fecundability is statistically significant at most ages, but that preexisting sterility and new sterility are unimportant before age 40. These results suggest that sterility may not be an important determinant of natural fertility until later reproductive ages. (FECUNDABILITY, STERILITY, DECREMENT TABLES, MODELS)
95.09.12 - English - Irma T. ELO and Samuel H. PRESTON, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104 (U.S.A.) Estimating African-American mortality from inaccurate data (p. 427-458)
This paper evaluates the quality of vital statistics and census data for estimating African-American mortality over a period of six decades. The authors employ intercensal cohort comparisons and extinct generation estimates to demonstrate that conventionally constructed African-American death rates may be seriously flawed as early as age 50. Using the crude death rate at ages 50+ for 1978-1982 in conjunction with estimated growth rates and two model life table systems, the authors estimate black age-specific death rates in 1978-1982. These results suggest that if a racial crossover in death rates occurs, the age pattern of mortality among African-Americans must be far outside the range observed in populations with more accurate data. (UNITED STATES, BLACKS, QUALITY OF DATA, MORTALITY MEASUREMENT)
95.09.13 - English - Ansley J. COALE, Office of Population Research, Princeton University, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08540-2091 (U.S.A.), and Judith BANISTER, Center for International Research, Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC 20233-3700 (U.S.A.) Five decades of missing females in China (p. 459-480)
This paper seeks to explain the death of females in the population of China in cohorts born from the late 1930s to the present. We demonstrate that in virtually all cohorts, the shortage of females in comparison with males is revealed when the cohort is first enumerated in a census. Subsequently it barely changes, an indication that female losses occur very early in life. Using the high-quality data from the censuses and fertility surveys in China, we show that many of the births of the girls missing in the censuses were not reported in the surveys because they died very young. The incidence of excess early female mortality (probably infanticide) declined precipitously in the Communist period, but not to zero. The recent escalation in the proportion of young females missing in China has been caused largely by rapidly escalating sex-selective abortion. (CHINA, SEX RATIO, INFANT MORTALITY, EXCESS MORTALITY, SEX DISCRIMINATION, INDUCED ABORTION)
95.09.14 - English - Herbert L. SMITH, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298 (U.S.A.) Nonreporting of births or nonreporting of pregnancies? Some evidence from four rural counties in North China (p. 481-486)
Coale and Banister argue that in China, elevated sex ratios in retrospective surveys are in part a function of collecting birth histories in a culture in which the definition of a birth may exclude mortality shortly after birth: an infant death in the West may be a stillbirth in East Asia. I present data from a recent sample survey featuring a retrospective pregnancy history. These data reveal that at least in the first pregnancy, from which the preponderance of sample births arise, there is no evidence of elevated female infant mortality or of high numbers of stillbirths, but that reported sex ratios are unusually high. The proportion of stillbirths grows for later pregnancies, but not enough to account for high sex ratios. Retrospective fertility data regarding recall over a recent interval are vexed less by a misunderstanding of what a live birth is than by a "misunderstanding" of what a (reportable) pregnancy is. (CHINA, SEX RATIO, INFANT MORTALITY, LATE FOETAL MORTALITY, QUALITY OF DATA)
95.09.15 - English - Ken R. SMITH, Department of Family and Consumer Studies, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112 (U.S.A.), and Norman J. WAITZMAN, Department of Economics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112 (U.S.A.)
Double jeopardy: Interaction effects of marital and poverty status on the risk of mortality (p. 487-508)
The purpose of this paper is to examine the hypothesis that marital and poverty status interact in their effects on mortality risks beyond their main effects. This study examines the epidemiological bases for applying an additive rather than a multiplicative specification when testing for interaction between two discrete risk factors. We specifically predict that risks associated with being nonmarried and with being poor interact to produce mortality risks that are greater than each risk acting independently. The analysis is based on men and women who were ages 25-74 during the 1971-1975 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey I (NHANES () and who were traced successfully in the NHANES ( Epidemiologic Follow-Up Study in 1982-1984. Overall, being both poor and nonmarried places nonelderly (ages 25-64) men, but not women, at risk of mortality greater than that expected from the main effects. This study shows that for all-cause mortality, marital and poverty status interact for men but less so for women; these findings exist when interaction is assessed with either a multiplicative or an additive standard. This difference is most pronounced for poor, widowed men and (to a lesser degree) poor, divorced men. For violent/accidental deaths among men, the interaction effects are large on the basis of an additive model. Weak main and interaction effects were detected for the elderly (age 65+ ). (DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, MARITAL STATUS, POVERTY, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS, SEX DIFFERENTIALS)
95.09.16 - English - Mary M. KRITZ and June Marie NOGLE, Population and Development Program and Department of Rural Sociology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (U.S.A.) Nativity concentration and internal migration among the foreign-born (p. 509-524)
Are immigrants who live in states where large numbers of their compatriots reside more or less likely to migrate than those who live in other states? Using 1980 U.S. Census data to address that question, the analysis shows that nativity concentration deters interstate migration but not migration within the same state. Residing in a state where fellow nationals live is a more important determinant of internal migration than human capital, immigration status, or a state's unemployment rate. New York State residence in 1975 also promotes interstate migration. This research suggests that social dimensions should be taken into account in modeling internal migration of the foreign-born. (UNITED STATES, IMMIGRANTS, INTERNAL MIGRATION, NATIONALITY, POPULATION CONCENTRATIONS)
95.09.17 - English - Zai LIANG, Department of Sociology, Queens College, City University of New York, Flushing, NY 11367-197, and Population Studies and Training Center, Box 1916, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (U.S.A.)
On the measurement of naturalization (p. 525-548)
This paper proposes a new way of measuring naturalization, which takes into account both emigration and death. I argue that the new method corrects for underestimation and thus provides a more accurate measure of the concept. Using data from six groups of the 1973 immigrant cohort and multiple-decrement life table techniques, I estimated and compared naturalization measures derived from new and old methods. The results show that failure to control for emigration has a significant effect on the measurement of naturalization, particularly if an immigrant group has relatively high rate of emigration. Some further substantive implications of this new method are also explored. (METHODOLOGY, NATURALIZATION, MEASUREMENT)
95.09.18 - English - Rogelio SAENZ, Texas A& M University, Department of Rural Sociology, College Station, TX 77843-2125 (U.S.A.), Sean-Shong HWANG, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Department of Sociology, Birmingham, AL 35294 (U.S.A.), and Benigno E. AGUIRRE, Texas A& M University, Department of Sociology, College Station, TX 77843-4351 (U.S.A.)
In search of Asian war brides (p. 549-559)
Because of the long presence of U.S. soldiers in Asia, war-bride marriages involving servicemen and Asian women have been formed throughout the century. The literature, however, contains little empirically sound information on Asian war brides. This analysis develops a methodology to identify war brides and applies it to estimate the number of war brides from the six major Asian groups, using the national 1980 Public Use Microdata Sample. Further analysis comparing Asian war brides with other groups of Asian wives tends to support the traditional and lower socioeconomic images commonly associated with Asian war brides. (ASIA, UNITED STATES, MILITARY PERSONNEL, MARRIED WOMEN)
1994 - VOLUME 31, NUMBER 4
95.09.19 - English - J. Richard UDRY, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997 (U.S.A.)
The nature of gender (p. 561-574)
I explain a biosocial model of women's gendered behavior (behavior on which the sexes differ). This model integrates a macro sociological theory with a biological theory derived from primate behavior. The sociological model is designed to explain changes in the relationship between sex and behavior over time or between groups. The biological model is designed to explain individual within-sex variance and between-sex variance in gendered behavior in a cohort. Results from an original study are presented to demonstrate that within-sex variance in women's gendered behavior is explained well by the primate model. I conclude that human nature is gendered. The implications of this conclusion are explored for demographic and other social science research. (SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR, SEX DIFFERENTIALS, MODELS)
95.09.20 - English - Nan Marie ASTONE, Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205 (U.S.A.), and Sara S. McLANAHAN, Office of Population Research, Princeton University, 21 Prospect, Princeton, NJ 08544 (U.S.A.) Family structure, residential mobility, and school dropout: A research note (p. 575-584)
This paper examines the hypothesis that high levels of residential mobility among nonintact families account for part of the well-known association between living in a nonintact family and dropping out of high school. Children from single-parent families and stepfamilies are more likely than children from two-parent families to move during the school year. As much as 30% of the difference in the risk of dropping out between children from stepfamilies and children from intact families can be explained by differences in residential mobility. Previously, mechanisms explaining school failure on the part of children in nonintact families were more plausible for children in single-parent families than for children in stepfamilies; high levels of residential mobility apply to both groups of children. In addition, residential mobility lends itself to manipulation by public policy, with potentially remedial effects for vulnerable children. (SCHOOL FAILURE, FAMILY DISINTEGRATION, RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY)
95.09.21 - English - Xiushi YANG, Department of Sociology and Criminal Justice and Graduate Programs in International Studies, Old Dominion University Norfolk, VA 23529 (U.S.A.)
A sensitivity analysis of repeat migration attrition in the study of migrant adjustment: The case of Bangkok (p. 585-594)
Studies of migrant adjustment often conclude that results apply only to remaining migrants. This paper examines the potential bias in using the difference between remaining migrants and natives as a measure of migrant adjustment. The results document that differences between remaining migrants and natives contain bias caused by attrition due to repeat migration. Such bias is small, however, and is unlikely to change migrant-native comparisons. Unless one is concerned with details of differences between migrants and natives, it is unnecessary to be concerned about migration attrition bias in drawing conclusions from the observed differences. (THAILAND, METHODOLOGY, BIAS, REPEATED MIGRATION, MIGRANT ASSIMILATION)
95.09.22 - English - Joan Marie KRAFT, Center for Research on Deviance and Behavioral Health, Institute for Behavioral Research, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602 (U.S.A.), and James E. COVERDILL, Department of Sociology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602 (U.S.A.) Employment and the use of birth control by sexually active single hispanic, black, and white women (p. 593-602)
Previous studies of the use of birth control by sexually active single women tend to emphasize family background and aspirations, and restrict their attention to teenagers. We elaborate this framework by considering how labor market experiences might shape the birth control practices of women in their late teens and twenties. Data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Labor Force Experiences-Youth Cohort provide evidence that employment histories and wages influence birth control practices, net of the effects of family background, aspirations, and educational attainment. Several pronounced racial and ethnic differences are found. (UNITED STATES, SPINSTERS, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT)
95.09.23 - English - Karin L. BREWSTER, Department of Sociology and Center for the Study of Population, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4063 (U.S.A.) Neighborhood context and the transition to sexual activity among young black women (p. 603-614)
Previous studies report that neighborhood characteristics influence pregnancy and childbearing risk among African-American adolescent women. These studies, however, leave unidentified the effects of many neighborhood properties on the proximate determinants of nonmarital fertility. In this study I examine the effects of neighborhood characteristics on the risk of nonmarital first intercourse and on contraceptive use among black female adolescents. The results suggest that neighborhood socioeconomic status, female employment and marital dissolution rates, and peers' departure from mainstream lifecourse trajectories influence young black women's sexual and contraceptive behavior. The effects of female employment and socioeconomic status are greater for teens in urban neighborhoods than for teens living elsewhere. (UNITED STATES, SPINSTERS, BLACKS, SEXUAL BEHAVIOUR, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE)
95.09.24 - English - Stewart E. TOLNAY, Department of Sociology and Center for Social and Demographic Analysis, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, NY 12222 (U.S.A.), and Patricia J. GLYNN, Center for Social and Demographic Analysis, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, NY 12222 (U.S.A.) The persistence of high fertility in the American south on the eve of the baby boom (p. 615-632)
Pockets of high fertility persisted in some areas of the American South through the Great Depression. Most other areas of the country adopted modern fertility patterns considerably earlier in the century; these "laggard" areas are clear exceptions to the national demographic revolution in family building. In this paper we attempt to identify the factors that account for the persistently high fertility in some southern regions. We use county-level data for 1940 to assess the utility of three theoretical models of fertility: structural, diffusion-innovation, and health. Differences by race are also considered, in view of the distinctly different histories of whites and African-Americans in the south. Our findings suggest that unicausal explanations for the persistence of high fertility are too simplistic; all three theoretical perspectives receive empirical support. Considerable similarity is observed in the findings for blacks and for whites. Yet important differences also emerge, especially the more powerful effects of structural variables on white fertility. We conclude that the evidence indicates the need for "diversity" in the study of demographic behavior. Not only should we examine a variety of causal mechanisms for demographic phenomena; we also should consider the varying utility of those mechanisms across different social groups. (UNITED STATES, HIGH FERTILITY ZONES, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, THEORETICAL MODELS)
95.09.25 - English - Christine L. HIMES, Pennsylvania State University, Population Research Institute, 601 Oswald Tower, University Park, PA 16802 (U.S.A.) Age patterns of mortality and cause-of-death structures in Sweden, Japan, and the United States (p. 633-650)
This paper uses a new standard model of adult mortality to compare the mortality patterns of Swedes, Japanese, and U.S. whites between 1950 and 1985. It examines changes in the age patterns of mortality and the cause-of-death structures within the populations, and the relationships between those two factors. As Japan has reached a level of mortality similar to that in Sweden, the age patterns of mortality in the two populations have become more similar despite distinct differences in causes of death. The United States has a cause-of-death structure similar to that of Sweden, but the age pattern of mortality is very different. High mortality in the middle age range in the United States results in approximately a one-year loss of life expectancy at age 45 in comparison with Sweden. (SWEDEN, JAPAN, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS, LIFE TABLES, CAUSES OF DEATH)
95.09.26 - English - Kerry RICHTER, Pennsylvania State University, Population Research Institute, University Park, PA 16802 (U.S.A.), Chai PODHISITA, Aphichat CHAMRATRITHIRONG and Kusol SOONTHORNDHADA, Institute for Population and Social Research, Mahidol University, 25/25 Puthamoltol 4, Salaya, 73170 Nakornpathom (Thailand) The impact of child care on fertility in urban Thailand (p. 651-662)
Women's labor force participation in Thailand, particularly in the modern sector, recently has increased in conjunction with rapid declines in fertility. This paper examines whether a relationship exists between child care considerations and fertility decision making among Bangkok women. Although the two-child family has become the norm in recent years, and although most respondents said that ideally they would like to have two children, a high proportion of women surveyed said they planned to only have one child. Women's work status and type of employment is found to strongly affect the likelihood of having a second birth: those who work at jobs that not only are low-paying but are located in a formal setting are least likely to have a second child. The type of child care for the first child also has an impact: those whose first child is in a less preferred situation are less likely to have a second. Variables measuring the need for and type of child care are found to have greater consequences for fertility than do usual measures of socioeconomic status. (THAILAND, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, FERTILITY DECLINE, CHILD REARING)
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