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SPRING 1993 - VOLUME 22, NUMBER 1

95.07.1 - French - Louis DUCHESNE, Bureau de la statistique du Québec (Canada) Evolution of the population of Québec and Canada over the past century and a half in the absence of migration (Evolution de la population au Québec et au Canada depuis un siècle et demi en l'absence de migrations) (p. 1-21)

Population projections in the absence of migration - based on observed or estimated mortality and fertility rates since 1851 - help provide a long-term assessment of migration in Québec and Canada, through the comparison of census data with the results of such projections. Without migration since 1851, Québec would have had 12 million inhabitants in 1991 instead of the observed 7 million. For Canada, the projection discluding migration since 1871 results in a population of 26 million persons (without Newfoundland), this being one million less than the latest census total. Had Canada retained its children, it would not have needed to compensate with its 12 million immigrants and the Québec and French-speaking population would have been much greater. (CANADA, HISTORY, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, PROVINCES)

95.07.2 - French - Daniel COURGEAU and Eva LELIEVRE, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France) New perspectives in biographical analysis (Nouvelles perspectives de l'anayse biographique) (p. 23-44)

In the last decade, life-event history analysis, also called failure time data analysis or survival analysis, has been widely adopted by demographers. This methodology in demography allows to overcome major hurdles especially when analyzing longitudinal survey data. This paper describes the new perspectives opened to research in that field, and is illustrated by new results and examples of research projects. The authors concentrate on four issues: the analysis of incorrect and imperfect data, the analysis based on more complex data and lastly the study of interaction between phenomena. (DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS, EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS)

95.07.3 - French - Jean-Pierre THOUEZ, Département de géographie, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC (Canada), Robert PAMPALON, Ministère de la Santé et des Services sociaux du Québec (Canada), Yves BUSSIERE and Nathalie CHICOINE, INRS-Urbanisation, 3465 Durocher, Montréal, QC H2X 2C6 (Canada)

Ageing and functional limitations: A comparative analysis of data from the HALS survey between the metropolitan region of Montréal and the Province of Québec, 1986 (Vieillissement et limitations fonctionnelles : analyse comparée des données de l'enquête ESLA entre la région métropolitaine de Montréal et la province de Québec, 1986) (p. 45-62)

Québec, just as the case of other industrialized countries, will experience considerable growth in the size of its elderly population over the next few decades. In this article, an analysis of data from the Health and Activity Limitation Survey (HALS) for the metropolitan region of Montreal (MRM) and for the province of Quebec, conducted in 1986-87 by Statistics Canada, will show that the level of disabilities and the severity of handicaps are distinctly related to ageing. This raises central questions regarding the nature of the ageing process and on the pertinent policies to be adopted. Furthermore, significant spatial differences can be observed concerning the level of disabilities for various age groups. As such, the level of disabilities is generally lower in the MRM than in the rest of Quebec, except among those aged 75 and over and for the worst degree of disability. (CANADA, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING, PHYSICALLY DISABLED)

95.07.4 - French - Yves CARRIERE and Jacques LEGARE, Département de démographique, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC H3C 3J7 (Canada)

Population ageing and institutionalization of elderly persons: Some qualified projections for Canada (Vieillissement démographique et institutionnalisation des personnes âgées : des projections nuancées pour le Canada) (p. 63-92)

The consequences of population ageing on the demand for institutional lodging with undoubtedly be considerable. We have estimated this future demand in relationship with the evolution of certain socio-demographic characteristics of tomorrow's elderly. Based on a multivariate analysis (logit model), our projections will demonstrate the need for an approach which takes into account the replacement of generations amongst the ranks of aged persons. In fact, in future the latter will be appreciably different from today's generations. Their sociodemographic characteristics will have an impact on the risk of living in an institution and, thus, on the proportion and the number of institutionalized elderly people. Furthermore, they will probably be in a position to be able to contribute towards a greater portion of the costs of institutional living. Certainly, the burden of institutionalization will be further weighed down by the arrival of the baby boomers into the 65 years and over age bracket. This article nevertheless distinguishes some significant nuances within the scope of this phenomenon. (CANADA, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING, PROJECTIONS, RETIREMENT HOMES)

95.07.5 - French - Gary CALDWELL, Guy FRECHET, Département de sociologie, Université Laval (Canada), and Normand THIBAULT, Bureau de la Statistique du Québec (Canada) The recent evolution of fertility in Quebec: Demographic and socioeconomic determinants (L'évolution récente de la fécondité au Québec : facteurs démographiques, économiques et sociaux) (p. 93-132)

The purpose of this study is to assess the factors which have influenced the evolution of fertility in Quebec between 1960 and 1990, in order to have a better focus on short and middle terms fertility's determining factors. A Whittaker-Henderson filter is applied to various variables presumably linked to the total fertility index in order to retrieve and isolate the trend, which then enables to concentrate on residuals' co-variations. A regression analysis then enables to assess the factors' weights and the short term's influence ("business cycle"). Governmental incentives, notably between 1988 and 1990, appear as having contributed, as well as the overall economic conjuncture, to the observed total fertility index raise in the course of this period. (CANADA, PROVINCES, FERTILITY TRENDS, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)

95.07.6 - French - Emile ALLLE, Roma DAUPHIN and Mario FORTIN, Département d'économie, Université de Sherbrooke, Québec (Canada) Fertility goals among students at the University of Sherbrooke (Les aspirations de fécondité des étudiants et étudiantes de l'Université de Sherbrooke) (p. 133-152)

This paper describes intentions in the matter of fertility expressed by 900 first-year students surveyed at the University of Sherbrooke. The study seeks to ascertain links between certain attitudes, perceptions or personal situations and the desired number of children. The desired number of children is shown to be strongly influenced by attitudes regarding marriage and by the importance placed on family life. Other variables which also have a significant impact on projected lifetime fertility, albeit to a lesser degree, include: the perception of the role of housewives, the importance granted to the stability of family income, and the number of siblings among members of the surveyed group. However, one surprising result is that the average desired number of children is 2,45. Given the high level of education of the sample, this appears to be quite a high figure. (CANADA, COLLEGE STUDENTS, DESIRED FAMILY SIZE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)

95.07.7 - French - Alain BELANGER, Division du perfectionnement des ressources humaines, Secrétariat du Conseil du trésor (Canada) Interprovincial migration among foreign-born Canadians, 1981-1986 (La migration interprovinciale des personnes âgées nées à l'étranger, Canada, 1981-1986) (p. 153-178)

Precious little is known about the demographic behaviour of foreign-born persons living in Canada, and even less about their migratory behaviour. However, considering the current low fertility level and recent increases in immigration quotas, the proportion of foreign-born persons could well increase in the near future. Thus, a better understanding of the demographic behaviour of this population appears engaging. This article analyzes the spatial distribution as well as interprovincial migration of foreign-born persons living in Canada, using data from the 1986 census. The focus is placed on differences observed in migratory behaviour between native-born Canadians and those born abroad. Net migration patterns as well as the propensity to migrate by place of origin and destination are presented for different population groups according to birthplace. Finally, multiregional life tables are used to evaluate the effect of these migratory differentials on the retentive force exerted by the various regions. (CANADA, INTERNAL MIGRATION, FOREIGNERS, GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION)

95.07.8 - French - Robert CHOINIERE, Unité de santé publique, Hôpital général de Montréal, Montréal (Canada)

Principal causes of death and hospitalization in the region of Montreal (Les principales causes de décès et d'hospitalisation dans la région de Montréal) (p. 179-192)

The aim of this article is to draw a portrait of the principal causes of death and hospitalization on the Island of Montreal. Age and sex specific rates are compared to those for all of Quebec. Furthermore, the evolution of mortality rates by cause of death is traced from 1976 to 1990. AIDS, which was unheard of before 1983, now represents the number one ranking cause of death among men aged 25 to 44 years. For most of the causes considered here, a decline in mortality has been observed between 1976 and 1990. However, mortality rates for pulmonary diseases have increased significantly for both sexes, as have rates for lung cancer among women. (CANADA, REGIONS, CAUSES OF DEATH, HOSPITALIZATION)

AUTOMN 1993 - VOLUME 22, NUMBER 2

95.07.9 - French - Richard LALOU, Département de Démographie, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC H3C 3J7 (Canada) When women's schools were schools of mothers. The influence of education on the fertility of Quebec women (1850-1940) (Quand l'école des femmes était une école des mères. Influence de l'instruction sur la fécondité des québécoises (1850-1940)) (p. 229-262)

Theoretical studies on the demographic transition and empirical analyses generally conclude that schooling has the power to direct mentalities towards modernization and progress: it is because of the education obtained at school that young girls began to irreversibly break away from society's traditional values and started questioning their ancestral roles of wife and mother. However, because of its strongly religious nature, there is no doubt that the schooling received by Quebec women contributed only indirectly to the emancipation of their thoughts. If schooling, and the knowledge that came with it, provided the fundamental tools for freedom, it must also be noted that the school's pro-birth stand moulded the collective conscience to respect tradition. The statistics indicate that there is no doubt that the school's emancipatory characteristics had more influence on the reproductive habits of Quebec's women. But in a society so attached to religion, the conservative character of educational teaching probably prevented the school from fully contributing to progress. Therefore, it is possible that schooling did not have, in Quebec, all of the impact which theories on declining birth rate credit it with. (CANADA, PROVINCES, HISTORY, EDUCATION OF WOMEN, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)

95.07.10 - French - Marc TREMBLAY and Evelyne HEYER, SOREP, Université du Québec, Chicoutimi, QC (Canada) The regional differential reproduction of the women born in the Saguenay between 1860 and 1870 (Reproduction régionale différentielle des femmes nées entre 1860 et 1870 au Saguenay) (p. 263-284)

This article presents the results of a study done on the reproductive history of women who were born and married in the Saguenay region at the end of the 19th century. The data used comes from the BALSAC Population Register, which was developed at the SOREP Research Center in Chicoutimi. The study focuses on the variability and efficiency of reproduction within a determined group of women. The results show that, from one generation to another, demographic replacement and genetic transmission take place in a highly uneven fashion. It also appears that there is a certain sub-regional reproductive differential based on the place of residence at the time of marriage. (CANADA, REGIONS, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, FEMALE GENERATION, POPULATION REPLACEMENT)

95.07.11 - French - Hariclia SYMEONIDOU and Michael MAGDALINOS, Centre national de recherche sociale et de l'Ecole d'économie et de sciences commerciales, Athens (Greece)

A micro-economic model for the fertility - Employment relationship in Greece (Fécondité et travail féminin en Grèce : un modèle micro-économique) (p. 285-312)

The authors examined the relationship between fertility and the employment of women in the Greater Athens Area in 1989. The study presented by them extends the analysis to the rest of Greece using a sample of 3,193 married women of which 1,532 lived in urban areas other than Athens and 1,661 women lived in rural areas. Misspecification testing revealed structural differences between urban and rural areas and heteroscedasticity in the supply equation for work and the demand equation for children. A final model consisting of five structural and four variance equations was estimated. The new results confirm earlier findings: employment influences fertility both directly as well as through women's sex-role attitudes. While no significant direct influence of fertility on employment was found, a significant indirect influence was found in the rural areas, as a result of attitudes towards sexual roles. As expected, significant differences exist in the fertility and employment equations between the urban and rural areas. (GREECE, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, FERTILITY, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT)

95.07.12 - French - Marc TERM0TE, INRS-Urbanisation, 3465 Durocher, Montréal, QC H2X 2C6 (Canada), and Alberto BONAGUIDI, Dipartimento di Statistica e Matematica Applicata all'Economia, Universita di Pisa, Via Ridolfi 10, 56100 Pisa (Italy) The stable multiregional population as a tool for economic analysis. A study of Italy, 1977-1986 (La population multirégionale stable comme instrument d'analyse conjoncturelle. Une application à l'Italie, 1977-1986) (p. 313-338)

The intensity of short-term fluctuations in a population's demographic behaviour is often overshadowed by a force of inertia resulting from the structures inherited from past behaviour. Stable population theory produces an effective way to eliminate this "weight of the past". This article presents the results of an application of this approach in analysing changes in the fertility, migration and mortality regime of the Italian population during the 1977-1986 period. (ITALY, METHODOLOGY, POPULATION DYNAMICS, STABLE POPULATION)

95.07.13 - French - Robert CHOINIERE, Unité de santé publique, Hôpital général de Montréal, Montréal (Canada) The socio-economic and cultural inequalities in Montreal's death rate at the end of the 1980s (Les inégalités socio-économiques et culturelles de la mortalité à Montréal à la fin des années 1980) (p. 339-362)

This study examines the socio-economic and cultural inequalities of the mortality rate using an ecological approach at the census tract level. The proportion of poor individuals, as estimated from the income and size of private households, was used as a measure of socioeconomic status, while the proportion of immigrants was used as a measure of cultural status. Each death was classified in relation to the proportion of poor and the percentage of immigrants found in the residential sector of the dead according to the 1986 census statistics. The results show that substantial differences exist in Montreal based on income; and significant disparities were also found according to the quintile of immigrants and the combination of income and immigrant tertiles. (CANADA, METROPOLIS, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, POVERTY, CULTURE)

95.07.14 - French - Jacques D. MARLEAU and Jean-François SAUCIER, Faculté de Médecine, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC (Canada) First child sex preferences of non-pregnant Canadian and Quebec women (Préférence des femmes canadiennes et québécoises non enceintes quant au sexe du premier enfant) (p. 363-372)

All American research to date concerning the preferences of non-pregnant women indicate that the majority desire a boy as their first child. In Canada, the preference of non-pregnant women was derived with the help of the statistics found in the Inquiry into Fertility (1984). It appears that a larger proportion of women desire a child of the masculine sex as first-born (22% compared to 16% for a girl). However, 62% of all respondents declared having no preference. Certain differences arose based on place of residence: Quebecers express a slightly higher inclination towards girls, while the women of the other provinces prefer a boy. It is interesting to note that, regardless of their place of residence, almost half of the women who already have a child hope that their second child be of the opposite sex. (CANADA, SEX PREFERENCE)

SPRING 1994 - VOLUME 23, NUMBER 1

95.07.15 - French - Patrick FESTY, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France) The family environment of children in France and Canada (L'environnement familial des enfants en France et au Canada) (p. 11-26)

Two fundamental changes have influenced family demographics in both France and Canada over the past 25 years: the rise in the number of births to unmarried parents and the rapid growth in the proportion of children separated from one parent or another before they reach adulthood. The impact of these changes on the family life of children must, however, be seen in perspective. Parents not married at the time of the child's birth nevertheless tend to live together. As well, the separation of birth parents allows for the formation of new families, giving the child a stepmother or stepfather and step-siblings. International or interregional comparisons give a further dimension to these phenomena: for example, Quebec, France and the rest of Canada rank in that order for the frequency of births outside marriage, while Quebec and the rest of Canada come ahead of France with a higher frequency of separations. (FRANCE, CANADA, FAMILY DISINTEGRATION, CHILDREN)

95.07.16 - French - Larry BUMPASS, 1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 (U.S.A.)

The changing family contexts of children in the United States (L'enfant et les transformations du milieu familial aux Etats-Unis) (p. 27-52)

This paper reviews the roles of divorce, nonmarital childbearing, and cohabitation in the changing family contexts of children, and then provides new estimates of current family composition which incorporate cohabitation. The underlying process is viewed in terms of the declining significance of marriage linked to long-term trends in individuation. Half of all children in the U.S. will spend some time in a single-parent family, and nonmarital childbearing is an important factor creating these families. At the same time, increased cohabitation requires that family definitions which are based on marital status in the U.S. be replaced with those that include cohabitation. A sixth of traditionally defined "mother-only" families are cohabiting two-parent families, and the one fourth of current stepfamilies that are cohabiting are missed by marriage-based definitions. (UNITED STATES, CHILDREN, FAMILY COMPOSITION)

95.07.17 - French - Hubert DENIS, Bertrand DESJARDINS, Jacques LEGARE and Nicole MARCIL-GRATTON, Département de démographie, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC H3C 3J7 (Canada) Children in single-parent families, yesterday and today (Les enfants de la monoparentalité, hier et aujourd'hui) (p. 53-74)

This study, conducted from the point of view of the children, compares cohorts from the time of New France with those of Canada today, showing that single parenthood is not a new phenomenon. The types of single parenthood, however, are quite different. The colonial model of the traditional family has given way to a variety of family situations. As well, while death was the only cause of single parenthood during the colonial era, separations today are essentially based on some sort of decision. The psychological repercussions of losing a parent are thus completely dfferent. The first experience of life without one parent, both historically and today, is generally a brief, temporary episode often ending with the single parent taking a new partner. In either case, children have generally ended up living with their mother when a marriage or relationship ended. But while in the past the sex of the single parent had little effect in determining the nature of life with a single parent, the same is not true today. (CANADA, HISTORY, ONE-PARENT FAMILY, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

95.07.18 - French - Frances GOLDSCHEIDER and Calvin GOLDSCHEIDER Family structure, leaving home, and investments in young adulthood (Composition familiale, soutien parental et départ du foyer des jeunes américains au XXe siècle) (p. 75-102)

This paper examines the effects of childhood family structure on patterns of home leaving (route and timing). The analysis uses data from the National Survey of Families and Households, a retrospective study of 13,017 U.S. adults interviewed in 1987 about their past and current family experiences. A competing risks, proportional hazards statistical analysis allows us to evaluate the risks of leaving home by a given route, holding constant the risk of taking other important routes out of the home. Family disruption is linked with leaving home via all routes except college attendance, closely resembling the effects of low parental social class (education and occupational prestige). The effects of family structure and class are particularly marked on leaving home between ages 15 and 18. We interpret the results as indicating the ways the parental home provides the resources needed for a successful launching into adult independence or prompts leaving home either too early, or to new living arrangements likely to make establishing a stable independent adult role set more difficult. (UNITED STATES, YOUTH, FAMILY LIFE CYCLE, FAMILY COMPOSITION)

95.07.19 - French - André LESPERANCE The educational expectancy of young people in Quebec (L'espérance de scolarisation (ou de vie scolaire) des jeunes au Québec) (p. 103-120)

From primary school to university, Quebecers of school age will, on average, spend a total of 15.3 years in school. This figure represents the sum of rates of schooling per year of age for a given school year. Educational expectancy in Quebec has increased 0.9 years since 1987-1988, and is today one of the highest in the world. Recent gains are due in part to increased completion of primary and secondary programs by students in the adult education sector. The remaining gains are at the college and university levels (0.3 years each). The increased education expectancy at the post-secondary level is basically due to greater accessibility. Females in Quebec are, on the whole, better educated than males. They spend fewer years in primary and secondary school because they lose less time repeating years. Since more women are attending college and university, their educational expectancy in 1992-1993 stood at 3.7 years compared to 2.9 years for men. (CANADA, PROVINCES, SCHOOLING, DURATION, SEX DIFFERENTIALS)

95.07.20 - French - Gilles MONTIGNY National longitudinal survey on children (L'enquête longitudinale nationale auprès des enfants) (p. 121-192)

To date, Canadian researchers studying the child population have been faced with a serious lack of data. The National Longitudinal Survey on Children is intended to remedy this by making it possible to produce cross-sectional analyses of the situation of Canadian children and carry out the first longitudinal monitoring of their development. This exceptional source of data is described with emphasis on its usefulness for both child development specialists and social scientists. (CANADA, CHILDREN, FOLLOW-UP SURVEYS)

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