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JANUARY 1993 - VOLUME 14, NUMBER 3

94.91.01 - English - Christine OBBO, Le Rovdier, Lisle, 24350 Tocana St. Apre (France)

HIV Transmission: Men Are the Solution (p. 211-244)

In the nation of Uganda, the cumulative total cases of clinical AIDS is 15,569, but out of the 13,984 adult AIDS cases, 6,394 are women aged 13-49 years. AIDS has been reported in all districts of Uganda ranging from 4 cases in Kapchorwa district to 2,808 and 4,232 cases in Masaka and Kampala districts, respectively (AIDS Control Program Report 1990). The age distribution is: 0 - 5 years = 10% 6 - 15 years = 0% 16 - 40 years = 80% 40+ years = 10% Heterosexual contact accounts for over 90% of the transmission. Evidence suggests that prior exposure to sexually transmitted diseases (STD) such as herpes, gonorrhea, and syphilis enhances susceptibility to transmission. Blood transmission and mother-to-newborn transmission cases account for about 1% and 10%, respectively. The majority of the cases are in the productive and reproductive age group. Men dominate in the 30-34 age group. Most women affected are in the childbearing range of 15-49 years. The peak incidence of AIDS is among 20-29 year-old women. The women affected are 5 years younger than the men. The average age of the affected is 27 years for women compared with 32 years for men. (UGANDA, AIDS, EPIDEMIOLOGY)

94.91.02 - English - Goran HYDEN and Kim LANEGRAN

Mapping the Politics of AIDS: Illustrations from East Africa (p. 245-264)

94.91.03 - English - Peter O. WAY and Karen STANECKI, Center for International Research, US Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC 20233 (U.S.A.)

How Bad Will It Be? Modelling the AIDS Epidemic in Eastern Africa (p. 265-278)

The spread of HIV infection and the subsequent AIDS morbidity and mortality threatens to have a substantial impact on societies in subsaharan Africa. Infection levels are increasing rapidly in many regions, especially in urban areas. The consequences of high levels of infection are inescapable, although, due to the long incubation period, morbidity and mortality increases lag several years behind increases in infection levels. The impact of a serious AIDS epidemic will be felt by many sectors of the society. Mortality levels will substantially increase, especially among newborns and adults under age 50. This mortality will remove many productive members from the economy, while HIV-related illness will reduce the productivity of the infected population. Health care facilities will be severely strained to bear the increases in hospitalized populations, Those without access to the formal health care system will rely on family members for support and care. (EASTERN AFRICA, AIDS, FORECASTS, MODELS)

94.91.04 - English - Frederick J. KAIJAGE

AIDS Control and the Burden of History in Northwestern Tanzania (p. 279-300)

94.91.05 - English - Linda A. VALLEROY, Centers for Disease Control, Division of STD/HIV Prevention, Mailstop E-44, Atlanta, GA 30333 (U.S.A.), Jeffrey R. HARRIS, US Agency for International Development, and Peter O. WAY, US Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC 20233 (U.S.A.)

The Consequences of HIV/AIDS in Eastern Africa on Mothers, Children, and Orphans (p. 301-306)

Orphanhood is a sad and unique problem of the HIV pandemic, compared with other epidemics, for generally both parents will be infected and will tend to die during young, adulthood, leaving behind young children. The rising morbidity and mortality of HIV-infected mothers and fathers threaten to decrease the care and resources spent on children and to increase the prevalence of orphanhood, However, the extent and impact of orphanhood due to HIV/AIDS are not known. This paper presents two aspects of HIV infection and its impact on women and children in sub-Saharan Africa: the results of two analyses of the HIV-attributable mortality of mothers and the orphanhood of their young children. (EASTERN AFRICA, AIDS, ORPHANHOOD)

94.91.06 - English - Subhash K. HIRA, William H. LYERLY, Jr. and Peter L. PERINE

Designing Appropriate Intervention Strategies for HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa (p. 307-313)

MARCH 1993 - VOLUME 14, NUMBER 4

94.91.07 - English - Richard C. DUNCAN, Institute of Energy and Man, P.O. Box 391543, Cambridge, MA 02139 (U.S.A.)

The Life-Expectancy of Industrial Civilization: The Decline to Global Equilibrium (p. 325-358)

A new paradigm is needed for industrial civilization, because neither the traditiorial theory of exponential industrial growth nor the more recent steady-state hypothesis can satisfactorily explain historical data. As a basis for the paradigm, the long sweep of human history is divided into three pliases: (1) pre-industrial, (2) industrial, and (3) de-industrial. This essay focuses on the second, or industrial, phase. The paradigm is embodied in four theories. The first theory states that industrial civilization can be graphed over time by energy-use per person in the shape of a single pulse waveform. The second theory is derived from a well established principle of human ecology. It defines a set of necessary conditions for the advantage, stagnation and decline of industrial civilization in terms of world total energy-use and world total population. Next, the subject of governing is analyzed in terms of ten requirements for system control. The third theory is derived from this analysis. It relates the size, or complexity, of a society over time to the average energy-use per person in that society. Historical population and energy-use data and other considerations are used as the basis for the fourth theory. This, a predictive theory, states that the life-expectancy of industrial civilization is less than 100 years. (INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY, WORLD POPULATION, ENERGY CONSUMPTION, PROJECTIONS, THEORETICAL MODELS)

94.91.08 - English - Albert A. BARTLETT, Department of Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0390 (U.S.A.)

The Arithmetic of Growth: Methods of Calculation (p. 359-388)

This is a tutorial on the relations between population data and the rates of growth that are calculated from the data. For the calculation of rates of growth, discrete and continuous compounding will be compared so that the reader can see the reasons for using the mathematics of continuous compounding, which is the mathematics of exponential growth. Some properties of exponential growth are developed. Senli-logaritlimic graphs will be discussed as a device for representing the size of growing populations and for analysing the nature of the growth. Illustrative examines will be worked out in order to emphasize applications and utility. (MATHEMATICAL DEMOGRAPHY, METHODOLOGY, GROWTH RATE)

94.91.09 - English - Stephen J. CALDAS, Office of Research and Development, Louisiana State Department of Education, P.O. Box 94064, Baton Rouge, LA 70804 (U.S.A.)

The Private and Societal Economic Costs of Teenage Childbearing: The State of the Research (p. 389-400)

The most significant individual costs of teenage childbearing are associated with truncated educations and lost human capital investment. Among the most significant direct public costs are the expenditures of just three government programs : AFDC, Food Stamps, and Medicaid. An important public cost of teenage chilbearing overlooked by many researchers is the cost to U.S. productivity of larges numbers of undereducated and impoverished mothers in the work force, and the intergenerational transfer of this impoverishment to their children. Any restrictions on abortion will likely increase unwanted teenage fertility, and its associated costs, particularly among the disadvantaged. (UNITED STATES, ADOLESCENT FERTILITY, SOCIAL COSTS)

MAY 1993 - VOLUME 14, NUMBER 5

94.91.10 - English - George R. LANOUE, Policy Sciences Graduate Program, University of Maryland Graduate School, 5401 Wilkens Ave., Baltimore, MD 21228 (U.S.A.)

The Demographic Premises of Affirmative Action (p. 421-440)

The premise of affirmative action in the Sixties was that it was a temporary intervention necessary to help blacks overcome the legacy of slavery and segregation. Three decades later, affirmative action encompasses many other groups and has spread to a wide variety of programs. The growth, diversity, and increasing prosperity of non-black affirmative action groups, however, raises questions about the future role of race and ethnic preferences. (UNITED STATES, SOCIAL MOVEMENT, BLACKS, ETHNIC GROUPS)

94.91.11 - English - Nathan KEYFITZ, 1580 Massachusetts Av., Apt. 7C, Cambridge, MA 02138 (U.S.A.)

Population and Sustainable Development: Distinguishing Fact and Preference Concerning the Future Human Population and Environment (p. 441-462)

The relation of population, environment and economic growth is controversial, with some considering that growth comes at an intolerable expense to the environment, others that the damage to the environment is slight and in any case so far in the future that it does not matter. Scientific evidence on the subject is not the only basis on which people choose sides; major factors are preference for present enjoyment and welfare as against the welfare of children and grandchildren, and the life of cities as against the countryside. The visibility of damage to the environment will sooner or later convince everyone that something must be done. For we can picture a declining marginal enjoyment of goods, and a rising .marginal visible damage, two curves that are sure to meet sooner or later, and when they do the public will insist on drastic measures for repair being financed and undertaken. The greater the delay the more expensive the repairs. Beyond cost, the question is whether adequate measures of repair and prevention of further damage will be undertaken before it is too late. (ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, DEVELOPMENT STYLES, WORLD POPULATION, ECONOMIC GROWTH)

94.91.12 - English - Mary P. HARMON and Kathryn COE, College of Nursing, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-2602 (U.S.A.)

Cancer Mortality in U.S. Counties with Hazardous Waste Sites (p. 463-480)

The occupational effects of toxic substances have been well documented. However, both exposure time and level of exposure differ between those exposed on the job and those exposed due to residence near a hazardous waste site, resulting in differing health effects. This study examines the possible connection between residential proximity to a hazardous waste site and rates of mortality due to cancer. Results indicate that counties with hazardous waste sites are more likely to have higher total cancer rates and higher rates of of respiratory and digestive cancers. Moreover, the analysis suggests that the Superfund Program has not identified the most hazardous sites, as was intended by Congressional legislation. (UNITED STATES, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, CANCER, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS, ENVIRONMENT)

JULY 1993 - VOLUME 14, NUMBER 6

94.91.13 - English - Vernon M. BRIGGS, Jr., NYS School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University, 393 Ives Hall, Ithaca, NY 14851-0952 (U.S.A.)

Immigrant Labor and the Issue of "Dirty Work" in Advanced Industrial Societies (p. 503-514)

94.91.14 - English - Donald L. HUDDLE, Department of Economics, Rice University, Box 1892, Houston, TX 77251 (U.S.A.)

Dirty Work: Are Immigrants Only Taking Jobs That the Native Underclass Does Not Want? (p. 515-538)

94.91.15 - English - Philip L. MARTIN, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of California, Davis, CA 95616-8512 (U.S.A.)

The Missing Bridge: How Immigrant Networks Keep Americans Out of Dirty Jobs (p. 539-566)

Immigrants are over half of the new entrants in occupations in southwestern labor markets that range from farmworker to janitor to engineering professor. This paper explains how the availability of immigrant workers changes employment practices in ways that push and pull Americans out of jobs which remain "dirty" or unattractive to U.S. workers. An immigrant network that eventually takeover an enterprise's jobs can begin by accident or design. Accidental immigrant takeovers begin with pioneer workers who persist in high turnover jobs such as seasonal farmworker. These workers offer to bring their friends and relatives to fill vacancies as they occur. Takeovers by design sometimes follow a strike in which immigrants are recruited to be strikebreakers. After immigrants dominate the workforce, the language and culture of the workplace change in ways that make American workers feel out-of place. Employers feel under no compulsion to upgrade dirty jobs as long as immigrant workers are available, so the technology and productivity of immigrant-enclave jobs tend to be frozen, guaranteeing that dirty jobs get less and less attractive to Americans. Indeed, industries dependent on immigrant workers often turn protectionist when they realize that even low immigrant wages are not sufficient to ensure their survival in the global marketplace. In this way, Americans lose out in several ways: They must compete directly with immigrant workers in the labor market, and then pay higher prices for the goods produced by immigrant workers because the industries preserved by them demand protection from imports. Examples from fruit and vegetable agriculture, garments, and shoes will be discussed. (UNITED STATES, IMMIGRANT WORKERS, WORKING CONDITIONS, RECRUITMENT)

SEPTEMBER 1993 - VOLUME 15, NUMBER 1

94.91.16 - English - Bobbi S. LOW and Joel T. HEINEN

Population, Resources, and Environment: Implications of Human Behavioral Ecology for Conservation (p. 7-41)

94.91.17 - English - Philip Q. YANG, Department of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90024 (U.S.A.)

The Differential Effects of Husbands' and Wives' Statuses on Marital Fertility (p 43-58)

As an extension of prior subjectively-oriented studies that predicted couples' fertility decisions or outcomes by the expected costs and benefits of childbearing to husbands and wives, this article examines the differentiated effects of husbands' and wives' objective statuses on marital fertility, using the cumulative 1972-1990 GSS data. An interesting finding is that wives' education has a significant, negative effect on fertility while the effect of husbands' education is positive and statistically insignificant. This suggests that the generalization of the negative effect of education on fertility -may be misleading if one fails to make a distinction between marital partners. Meanwhile, this study finds no significant differences in the effects of husbands' and wives' occupational and work statuses on fertility. By and large, the husbands' status variables add little information to the models explaining fertility. It is also found that the effects of husbands' and wives' statuses are contingent upon their relative education. (UNITED STATES, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, LEGITIMATE FERTILITY RATE, SEX DIFFERENTIAL)

NOVEMBER 1993 - VOLUME 15, NUMBER 2

94.91.18 - English - Michael R. DOVE, Program on Environment, East-West Center, 1777 East-West Road, Honolulu, Hawaii 96848 (U.S.A.)

The Coevolution of Population and Environment: The Ecology and Ideology of Feedback Relations in Pakistan (p. 89-112)

A new approach to the study of population and environment is proposed, based on Norgaard's theory of "co-evolution." This theory is applied to two developments currently underway in Pakistan: the transfer of tree cover from public forests to private farms, and the partial replacement of woodfuel by dungfuel in household hearths. Both developments are characterized by feedback from the ecosystem to the sociosystem, which consists of a shift of regulatory mechanisms and complexity from the former to the latter. The efficacy of this feedback depends on an accurate perception of the process by the participating population. These perceptions are more accurate in the case of the forest-farm transition than the woodfuel-dungfuel transition, and this explains why the latter appears less sustainable than the fertile. Accuracy of perception also varies systematically between government officials and local peoples, primarily due to openness to explanations of behavior based on population/resource pressure. It is concluded that external development agencies have a potentially important role to play in demystifying perception of feedback processes between ecosystem and sociosystem. (PAKISTAN, POPULATION, ENVIRONMENT)

94.91.19 - English - Warren B. MILLER, 355 W. Olive Av., #203, Sunnyvale, CA 94086 (U.S.A.), and David J. PASTA

Motivational and Nonmotivational Determinants of Child-Number Desires (p. 113-138)

The number of children desired by individuals-often referred to as family size desires or preferences-is a central construct in much research designed to understand and predict fertility. It is often used as a proxy for the construct of childbearing motivation. This paper presents a theoretical framework that organizes and elucidates the relationship between these two constructs. That relationship is examined using a reliable, valid measure of childbearing motivation and data from 195 husbands and 196 wives with no children and 196 husbands and 196 wives with one child. The results indicate that childbearing motivation has a complex relationship with child-number desires, characterized by curvilinearity and a failure to distinguish among those desiring more than two children. We discuss the implications of this pattern. (FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, DESIRED FAMILY SIZE, ATTITUDE)

94.91.20 - English - Gaston FISCHER, c/o Observatoire Cantonal, CH-2000, Neuchâtel (Switzerland)

The Population Explosion: Where Is It Leading? (p. 139-154)

Over the past few centuries world demography has been characterized by both continuous absolute growth and a steadily increasing rate of growth. From 1650 or earlier to at least 1957 it was always possible to say that "never has world population been so large and never has the time necessary for it to double been so short." While there are now some signs to suggest that population doubling times are stabilizing, or even increasing, the population increase in absolute numbers is nevertheless greater each year, and the rate of growth may still be faster than a simple exponential function. There can be little doubt that too large a population, together with the pressures stemming from its demands for an even higher standard of living, sets requirements greater than our planet can safely sustain. This article reviews some aspects of global population data and population dynamics. (WORLD POPULATION, POPULATION GROWTH, POPULATION PRESSURE)

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