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1994 - VOLUME 7, NUMBER 1

94.89.01 - English - James A. BRANDER, Faculty of Commerce and Business Administration, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C. V6T 1Z2 (Canada), and Steve DOWRICK, Department of Economics Research, School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, GPO Box 4, Canberra ACT 2601 (Australia)

The Role of Fertility and Population in Economic Growth. Empirical Results from Aggregate Cross-National Data (p. 1-25)

Two recently improved sets of cross-country panel data are combined in order to re-examine the effects of population growth and fertility on economic growth. Using a 107 country panel data set covering 1960-85, we find that high birth rates appear to reduce economic growth through investment effects and possibly through "capital dilution", although classic resource dilution is not evident in the data. Most significantly, however, birth rate declines have a strong medium-term positive impact on per capita income growth through labour supply or "dependency" effects. (ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, ECONOMIC GROWTH, POPULATION GROWTH, FERTILITY)

94.89.02 - English - N.S. BLOMQUIST and H. WIJKANDER, Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P.O. Box 513, S-75120 Uppsala (Sweden)

Fertility Waves, Aggregate Savings and the Rate of Interest (p. 27-48)

During the last fifty years there have in many countries been large movements in the growth of labor productivity, real wage rates, the rate of interest, and the household savings ratio. In this paper we use an overlapping generations model to study if demographic shocks, like the baby boom, can generate the kind of movements observed. Simulations show this is indeed the case. We also study the interactions between a pay-as-you-go pension system and demographic disturbances. (ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, FERTILITY, SAVINGS)

94.89.03 - English - Noël BONNEUIL, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)

Capital Accumulation, Inertia of Consumption and Norms of Reproduction (p. 49-62)

A model of capital accumulation is built in relation with fertility and consumption. Avoiding to impose a direct analytical relationship between these three variables, the author studies the set of possible evolutions under the constraints imposed by the inertia of habit change. The conflict between the necessity to avoid impoverishment, the desire to increase consumption when possible and the reproduction intensity delineate the set of viable solutions and the set of attitudes leading to capital extinction. This qualitative view of change of behaviors provides an alternative explanation to historical fertility fluctuations outside the usual Easterlin framework. (ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, CAPITAL FORMATION, CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR, FERTILITY)

94.89.04 - English - Namkee AHN, Facultad de Ciencias y Empresariales, Dpto. Fundamentos del Analisis Economico, Universidad del Pais Vasco, Avda. Lehendakari Aguirre, 83 E-48015 Bilbao (Spain)

Effects of the One-child Family Policy on Second and Third Births in Hebei, Shaanxi and Shanghai (p. 63-78)

This paper uses the proportional hazards model to assess the effect of the Chinese one-child policy on second and third births. The differential effects of the policy between the urban and rural areas and by the sex of previous children are highlighted. First, the urban-rural differentials have increased much after the policy, suggesting a more rapid increase in the costs of children and stricter government controls in the urban areas. Second, the sex of children has become a more important factor after the policy. The considerably higher risks to a subsequent birth among sonless families indicate the persistent strong son preferences among Chinese parents, especially in less developed areas. Although son preferences seem suppressed in Shanghai, the higher risks to a second birth after the death of a son compared to a daughter are indicative of the son preferences even in Shanghai. Relaxation of the one-child policy may increase the Chinese fertility. (CHINA, ANTINATALIST POLICY, PARITY PROGRESSION RATIO, SEX PREFERENCE)

94.89.05 - English - Harry R. CLARKE, Department of Economics, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3052 (Australia)

The Welfare Effects of Labour Force Growth with Internationally Mobile Capital (p. 79-98)

The effects of labour supply growth on the welfare of preexisting "destination" and non-emigrating "source" populations are analysed. This growth occurs in open economies where free trade in capital goods is possible. Traditional "small" economy arguments for population growth rely on the existence of priced though internationally immobile factors. When all factors are freely-traded and population grows naturally the case rests either on market distortions or common property within families. In an integrated world labour growth can lead to capital flight and increasing wage differentials. With international interactions, immigration increases preexisting welfare in destination countries but generally (not always) reduces it for non-emigrants in source countries. Immigration provides efficiency gains to all originally resident in source countries. Natural population growth anywhere promotes efficiency gains everywhere. (ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, MANPOWER INCREASE, LABOUR MOBILITY, CAPITAL MOVEMENTS, SOIAL WELFARE)

1994 - VOLUME 7, NUMBER 2

94.89.06 - English - George J. BORJAS, Department of Economics, University of California-San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jola, CA 92093-0508 (U.S.A.)

Immigrant Skills and Ethnic Spillovers (p. 99-118)

This paper investigates the hypothesis that ethnicity has spillover effects on the human capital accumulation process. It extends previous research by documenting the extent to which the relative importance of parental inputs and ethnic spillovers in the intergenerational transmission of skills differs both within and across immigrant and U.S.-born ethnic groups. Using data drawn from the General Social Surveys, the study documents that the second and third generations (i.e., the children and grandchildren of immigrants) experience relatively more rapid economic advancement than do other generations, and that ethnic spillovers play a stronger role in households which are at the extremes of the skill distribution. (ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, ETHNIC COMPOSITION, IMMIGRANT WORKERS, OCCUPATIONAL QUALIFICATIONS, HUMAN RESOURCES)

94.89.07 - English - Barry R. CHISWICK, Department of Economics, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL 60607-7121 (U.S.A.), and Paul W. MILLER, Department of Economics, University of Western Australia, Perth (Australia)

Language Choice Among Immigrants in a Multilingual Destination (p. 119-131)

This paper analyzes the choice of dominant destination language spoken by immigrants in a multi-lingual destination. The empirical analysis is performed for Canada. Immigrants tend to gravitate to the official language that is closer to their mother tongue, that predominates in their region of residence and that has the broader labor market or economy. Bilingualism in the two official languages increases with the level of education in both Quebec and English Canada. French-only speakers among immigrants in Quebec tend to come from Romance language countries, have low levels of schooling, are recent arrivals and immigrated at an older age. (CANADA, MIGRANT ASSIMILATION, NATURAL LANGUAGE, MULTILINGUALISM)

94.89.08 - English - Christian DUSTMANN, Department of Economics, University College London, London WC1E 6BT (U.K.)

Speaking Fluency, Writing Fluency and Earnings of Migrants (p. 133-156)

This paper analyzes the determinants of language abilities of migrant workers and the impact of language proficiency on their earnings position. The analysis is based on data for West Germany. The first part presents an ordered probit analysis of the determinants of German speaking and writing fluency for both male and female migrants. The data allow not only to consider personal characteristics of the migrant as explanatory variables, but to analyze additionally the effect of the family context and of illiteracy on the migrant's German language fluency. In the second part, the effect of language on the migrant's earnings position is analyzed. It is shown that language abilities, and especially writing proficiency, considerably improve the earnings position of migrants. (GERMANY, IMMIGRANT WORKERS, NATURAL LANGUAGE, WAGE LEVEL)

94.89.09 - English - Ira N. GANG, Department of Economics, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08903-5055 (U.S.A.), and Francisco L. RIVERA-BATIZ, Department of Economics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027 (U.S.A.)

Labor Market Effects of Immigration in the United States and Europe (p. 157-175)

This paper examines the impact of immigrants on the income of various groups of resident workers in the United States and Europe. Our approach features the use of a production technology incorporating education, experience, and unskilled labor as inputs. This contrasts with the assumption lised in earlier studies that native-born and immigrant labor are distinct inputs into production. We find that in both United States and European production, education, unskilled labor and experience are complementary inputs. Based on these results, simulations of the impact of immigration on residents are carried out. The absolute magnitude of these effects is found to be very small. (UNITED STATES, EUROPE, IMMIGRANT WORKERS, LABOUR MARKET)

94.89.10 - English - John P. DE NEW and Klaus F. ZIMMERMANN, SELAPO, Universität München, Ludwigstraße 28 RG, D-80539 München (Germany)

Native Wage Impacts of Foreign Labor: A Random Effects Panel Analysis (p. 177-192)

Natives often fear labor market competition of foreigners, as they may induce declining wages and rising unemployment as in the case of natives and immigrants being substitutes. However, there is also the potential that they are complements, producing positive wage and employment effects. This issue is examined in a framework with two types of labor, such that low qualified native and immigrant workers (blue collar), although substitutes for one another, are potentially complements to high qualified native workers (white collar). This is thought to accurately reflect the past West German immigration experience. Examining the wage functions of white and blue collar natives in a random effects panel model using a vast sample of micro data, we actually find that foreigners negatively affect the wages of Germans on the whole. Relatively small gains are made by white collar employees with less than 20 years experience, but these are outweighed by the larger negative effects experienced by blue collar employees. (GERMANY, LABOUR MARKET, IMMIGRANT WORKERS, OCCUPATIONAL QUALIFICATIONS, WAGE LEVEL)

94.89.11 - English - Juan DOLADO, Alessandra GORIA and Andrea ICHINO

Immigration, Human Capital and Growth in the Host Country. Evidence from Pooled Country Data (p. 193-215)

Immigration, as a source of population growth, is traditionally associated, by neoclassical economics, with negative output and growth effects for the host economy in per capita terms. This paper explores how different these effects can be when the human capital brought in by immigrants upon arrival is explicitly considered in a Solow growth model augmented by human capital and migration. The main finding is that the negative output and growth effects of immigration tend to become less important the higher the imported immigrants' human capital relative to natives. In order to evaluate the order of magnitude of these effects, descriptive evidence, based on education data, and econometric evidence, based upon the estimation of the transition equation in the augmented Solow model, is provided for a set of OECD economies during the period 1960-1985. Because of their human capital content, migration inflows are shown to have less than half the negative impact of comparable natural population increases. (OECD COUNTRIES, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, IMMIGRANT WORKERS, OCCUPATIONAL QUALIFICATIONS, ECONOMIC GROWTH)

94.89.12 - English - Wolfgang FRANZ, CEPR, London (U.K.), Ursula OSER and Peter WINKER, University of Konstanz, P.O. Box 5560, D-78434 Konstanz (Germany)

A Macroeconometric Disequilibrium Analysis of Current and Future Migration from Eastern Europe into West Germany (p. 217-234)

This paper attempts to evaluate the impact of current and future immigration flows on major macroeconomic variables of the West German economy. The analysis is based on a macroeconometric disequilibrium model for the West German economy. This model is extended until 1995 and used for several simulation experiments. Special attention is given to the notion that the effects of immigration are regime-specific, i.e., they depend on the type of disequilibrium prevailing on the goods and labor market. (GERMANY, EASTERN EUROPE, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, MACROSIMULATION)

94.89.13 - English - Riccardo FAINI, Faculty of Economics, University of Brescia, Via Fratelli Porcellaga 21, I-25121 Brescia (Italy)

Workers Remittances and the Real Exchange Rate. A Quantitative Framework (p. 235-245)

Workers' remittances represent a sizeable component of international trade flows in goods and services. The paper tries to assess to what extent workers remittances are responsive to key macroeconomic variables. We first develop a simple model of altruistic transfers and show that the real exchange rate may play a crucial role in affecting the remittance behaviour of migrants. Econometric estimation of a remittance equation for a sample of five Mediterranean countries indicates that the real exchange rate is indeed a significant determinant of remittances. Further support in this respect comes from an analysis of remittance behaviour by foreign workers in Germany. We also find strong evidence to support the claim that remittances are altruistically motivated, as indicated by the systematically negative coefficient associated with recipients' income. (ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, MIGRANT WORKERS, CAPITAL MOVEMENTS)

1994 - VOLUME 7, NUMBER 3

94.89.14 - English - McKinley BLACKBURN, Department of Economics, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208 (U.S.A.), and Sanders KORENMAN, Center for Population Analysis and Policy, Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (U.S.A.)

The Declining Marital-Status Earnings Differentials (p. 247-270)

Earnings differentials between married and unmarried men have been declining since the late 1960s. We consider two possible explanations for this decline: changes in the nature of selection into marriage; and changes in role specialization within marriage. Our analysis of changes in marriage differentials within cohorts supports only a small contribution of changes in selection. There is some evidence that differences in human-capital investment between married and unmarried men have fallen over time, but this effect has apparently been largely offset by increases in the return to that human capital. (ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, WAGE LEVEL, MARITAL STATUS)

94.89.15 - English - J. ZWEIMÜLLER and R. WINTER-EBMER, Department of Economics, University of Linz, A-4040 Linz (Austria)

Gender Wage Differentials in Private and Public Sector Jobs (p. 271-285)

In this study gender wage differentials in private and public sector jobs in Austria are calculated. Occupational attainment is considered as endogeneous by the use of an ordered response model. Results show that wage discrimination is also present in the public sector, though on a lower level. Both in private firms and for public servants a substantial part of this unwarranted differential is due to unequal professional advancement. (ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, SEX DIFFERENTIALS, WAGE LEVEL, OCCUPATIONAL LIFE)

94.89.16 - English - Björn GUSTAFSSON and Urban KJULIN, Department of Economics, Viktoriagatan 30, S-41125 Göteborg (Sweden)

Time Use in Child Care and Housework and the Total Cost of Children (p. 287-306)

The use of time for child care and housework among Swedish families is investigated. We allow the effect of children on child care and housework to vary by age of the child and also by whether the child is cared for outside the home or not. Our estimates allow us to compute the total cost of children in the form of the cost of time, and the cost of goods, services and housing. The result shows that time used for child care decreases sharply with the age of the child but this is not the case for time used for other housework. Considerable economies of scale is found to prevail for time used for child care. Child care outside the home reduces time use for other housework but the effect on time used for child care is quite small. For the average family time use cost make up more than half of total child cost. Our estimates indicate that decreased time use cost for children caused by care outside the home are not very different from a typical parental fee for public day care. (SWEDEN, TIME BUDGET, CHILD REARING, DOMESTIC WORK)

94.89.17 - English - Frank T. DENTON, Christine H. FEAVER and Byron G. SPENCER, Faculty of Social Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4M4 (Canada)

Teachers and the Birth Rate. The Demographic Dynamics of a Service Population (p. 307-329)

A theoretical model is developed in which the market for teachers is linked to the time path of fertility in the general population. The model is simple in its components but when the components are combined they form a complex long-memory dynamic system. Simulation experiments are carried out to investigate the effects of changes in fertility rates on supply/requirements imbalances in the teachers' market, the median age of teachers, and other variables. The model (and by implication, the real-world system) is found to be highly volatile in response to fertility variations. (ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, LABOUR MARKET, FERTILITY, TEACHERS)

1994 - VOLUME 7, NUMBER 4

94.89.18 - English - Arie KAPTEYN, Center for Economic Research, Tilburg University, P.O. Box 90153, 5000 LE Tilburg (Netherlands)

The Measurement of Household Cost Functions. Revealed Preference Versus Subjective Measures (p. 333-350)

Since the work of Pollak and Wales (1979), it is well-known that demand data are insufficient to identify a household cost function. Hence additional information is required. For that purpose I propose to employ direct measurement of feelings of well-being, elicited in surveys. In the paper I formally establish the connection between subjective measures and the cost function underlying the AID system. The subjective measures fully identify cost functions and the expenditure data do this partly. This makes it possible to test the null hypothesis that both types of data are consistent with one another, i.e. that they measure the same thing. I use two separate data sets to set up a test of this equivalence. The outcomes are somewhat mixed and indicate the need for further specification search. Finally, I discuss some implications of the outcomes. (ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, METHODOLOGY, CONSUMPTION FUNCTIONS, FAMILY CONSUMPTION, MEASUREMENT)

94.89.19 - English - C.Y. Cyrus CHU, Department of Economics, National Taiwan University, Taipei 115 (Taiwan), and Ronald D. LEE, Department of Demography and Economics, University of California, Berkeley, California (U.S.A.)

Famine, Revolt, and the Dynastic Cycle. Population Dynamics in Historic China (p. 351-378)

Historians have long noticed that population declines in ancient China often coincided with dynasty changes, and that most of these declines were the result of internecine wars which, in turn, were often initiated by famine or density pressure. Since the interactions between density pressure, internecine wars, and dynasty changes cannot be explained by the traditional age-specific density dependent population structure, we propose to use a bandit/peasant/ruler occupation-specific population model to interpret the dynamic socioeconomic transitions of ancient Chinese population, and provide econometric support to our model. We also highlight the rich dynamics of the composition of human population, a factor which was often neglected in previous research on general populations. (CHINA, HISTORY, POPULATION DYNAMICS, FOOD SHORTAGE, WAR, POPULATION COMPOSITION)

94.89.20 - English - Siu Fai LEUNG, Department of Economics, Harkness Hall, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627 (U.S.A.)

Will Sex Selection Reduce Fertility? (p. 379-392)

This paper investigates both theoretically and numerically the impact of sex selection on fertility. A static quantity-quality model of fertility is employed to compare fertility choices in two regimes: one in which parents cannot choose the gender of children and another in which parents can fully choose the gender of children. The static theory shows that whether sex selection reduces fertility depens on the second and third derivatives of the utility function and the child expenditure function. A numerical dynamic analysis is also presented. Using empirical dynamic models of fertility and Monte Carlo integration technique, the simulation shows that sex selection on the firstborn child among the Chinese in Malaysia could reduce fertility by about 3%. (FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, SEX PRESELECTION, STATIC MODELS, DYNAMIC MODELS)

94.89.21 - English - John ERMISCH, ESRC Research Centre on Micro-Social Change, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester CO4 35Q (U.K.), and Naohiro OGAWA, Population Research Institute, Nihon University, 3-2 Misaki-Cho 1-Chome, Chiyoda-Ku, Rokyo 101 (Japan)

Age at Motherhood in Japan (p. 393-420)

The paper analyzes factors influencing the age of motherhood in Japan, using both cross-sectional and time-series data. Both hazard rate and time series analyses support the hypothesis that better women's earning opportunities, as indicated by their educational attainments and relative pay, encourage Japanese women to marry and become mothers later in their lives. But both these analyses indicate that the trend toward later marriage and motherhood in Japan cannot be fully accounted for by improvements in women's educational attainments and earning opportunities, and the hazard analysis indicates that the strength of the trend increases with a woman's educational attainment. (JAPAN, MATERNAL AGE, MOTHERHOOD, EDUCATION OF WOMEN, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT)

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