Back to home page1994 - VOLUME 13, NUMBER 1
94.88.01 - English - Douglas S. MASSEY and Emilio PARRADO, Population Research Center, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois (U.S.A.)
Migradollars: The Remittances and Savings of Mexican Migrants to the USA (p. 3-30)
In this article, we use new data from 22 communities to estimate the total flow of dollars back into Mexico as a result of migration to the United States. Our estimates include remittances sent while working abroad and money brought back on return trips; they incorporate transfers by temporary as well as permanent US workers; they include money transferred by legal as well as illegal migrants; and they include funds sent or brought by household heads as well as other family members. We estimate that US$ 24 million in "migradollars" flowed into the sample communities during the survey year. In some places, the flow of US money equalled or exceeded the value of locally carried income. When generalized to all of Western Mexico, our simple suggests a regional flow of US$ 1.5 billion; and when our data are inserted into an estimation model developed earlier by Lozano Ascencio, we estimate the total flow at US$ 2 billion for Mexico as a whole. Although most of this money was spent on consumption, investments in productive activities were significant, and directly or indirectly, we conclude that migradollars play an extremely important role in Mexican economic production. (MEXICO, UNITED STATES, MIGRANT WORKERS, CAPITAL MOVEMENTS)
94.88.02 - English - Linda E. DORSTEN, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD (U.S.A.)
Direct and Indirect Effects on Infant Mortality in a High-Fertility US Population (p. 31-48)
This article examines the direct and indirect effects of social and demographic measures on infant mortality using data from a church directory of the Old Order Amish of the Lancaster, PA, Settlement. The sample includes all infant deaths and a simple random sample of survivors (total n = 2013). The results reveal that the death of the immediately prior sibling directly increases the risk of infant death nearly 30%, net of other factors. Also, the risk of mortality in the first year increases as birth order increases, particularly at the highest orders (8-17 prior sibs). Infants of the youngest mothers (age 13) are nearly 10% more likely to die in the first year of life than are infants of mothers age 24, nearly all of which is indirect via parity, prior sib death and birth interval. Further analysis shows that families adapting more rapidly to external community pressures face a higher risk of infant death than families living in more stable areas. These relationships emerge even in this homogeneous population with a relatively high standard of living and a traditional lifestyle. Implications are that indirect effects should be included in research on teen pregnancy and infant survival, and might be especially important for studies in "transitional" geographic areas. (UNITED STATES, INFANT MORTALITY, RELIGIOUS GROUPS, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS)
94.88.03 - English - Tim Futing LIAO, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign (U.S.A.)
A Theoretical Framework of Collective Action for the Evaluation of Family Planning Programs (p. 49-67)
Typically, a family planning program seeks to alter individuals' fertility behavior. The very necessity for the existence of a family planning program presumes that individuals' fertility expectations and behavior are not yet consistent with the objectives of the program. Therefore, some individuals may choose not to cooperate. In this article I establish a theoretical framework for the evaluation of family planning programs by synthesizing the literature on the theory of collective action. Because of the characteristics of collective action - indivisibility and externality family - noncooperation (free riding) is bound to occur. Faced with the problem of free riding, a good family planning program should ideally apply selective incentives, localize the costs and benefits, and invest in social capital. The relations among these three factors, cooperation, and fertilitèy are also spelled out. (METHODOLOGY, FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMMES, PROGRAMME EVALUATION)
94.88.04 - English - Junsen ZHANG, Chinese University of Hong Kong (Hong Kong), and Roland STURM, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica (U.S.A.)
When Do Couples Sign the One-Child Certificate in Urban China? (p. 69-81)
This paper analyzes a central part of China's one-child policy: when do eligible couples sign the one-child certificate and what are important socioeconomic determinants of this decision? We use proportional hazard models applied to micro-data from the 1985 Chinese Fertility Survey to study this question. Our results for urban residents in Hebei and Shaanxi indicate that a couple's socioeconomic characteristics significantly affect the timing of signing the certificate. In particular, education of the husband and wife, household wealth, and the age at marriage increase the probability of signing the certificate at an earlier time, while living space decreases the probability. Living in extended family structure or a male first child (to test for son preference) apparently have little effect. (CHINA, ANTINATALIST POLICY, SOCIAL BEHAVIOR)
94.88.05 - English - Xiushi YANG, Old Dominion University, Norflok, Virginia (U.S.A.)
Urban Temporary Out-Migration Under Economic Reforms: Who Moves and for What Reasons? (p. 83-100)
Studies of temporary migration in developing countries often focus on rural outmigration and are preoccupied with problems it may bring to cities. Using a unique data set from two surveys conducted in Zhejiang province, China, this paper examines the other side of the coin - temporary migration from urban places -and thereby provides an important complement to studies focusing on rural-urban migration. The analysis identifies three types of temporary migrations: on-business, economic, and family-related. Using multinomial logit model, the analysis suggests that the three types of temporary migration differ significantly from each other in both their causes and migrants' socioeconomic characteristics; so does urban-urban migration from urban-rural migration. The considerable urban-rural temporary migration attests to the fact that temporary migration is not a one-way process; its positive selectivity further indicates that a considerable human capital flows from urban to rural areas through urban-rural temporary migration, which provides rural areas much needed science and technology and becomes all important facilitating factor of rural socioeconomic development. (CHINA, TEMPORARY MIGRATION, URBAN-RURAL MIGRATION, HUMAN RESOURCES)
94.88.06 - English - Juxin DI and Emily ROSENBAUM, Fordham University, Bronx, NY (U.S.A.)
Caregiving System in Transition: An Illustration from Shanghai, China (p. 101-112)
Population aging, the diminution of family networks, and increasing demands for care create a substantial burden for the current family-based system of caregiving for the elderly in Shanghai. Using existing data, we explore recent and future changes in demographic composition, family structure, and elderly needs in Shanghai, and evaluate how these changes affect the care of the elderly. Within this context, we also describe the current caregiving system and discuss its limitations. Finally, we propose an improved caregiving system that features a greatly expanded role of the community, but maintains an integral role of the family as caregivers. We also outline two strategies that might be followed in the development of this new system. (CHINA, AGED, SOCIAL SECURITY)
1994 - VOLUME 13, NUMBER 2
94.88.07 - English - Joan R. KAHN and Leslie A. WHITTINGTON, Center on Population, Gender and Social Inequality, The University of Maryland, College Park, MD (U.S.A.)
The Transition to Parenthood in Puerto Rico: Occupational Status and the Timing of First Births (p. 121-140)
This study examines the relationship between occupational status and fertility timing during a period of rapid development in Puerto Rico. Our fundamental hypothesis is that women with higher status occupations face greater opportunity costs than those with less valued jobs and therefore will be more likely to postpone parenthood until later ages than women without such high costs. We test this hypothesis using event history techniques with data from the 1982 Puerto Rico Fertility and Family Planning Assessment, an island-wide survey of women between the ages of 15 and 49. The analysis examines the effects of occupational status on the timing of first births, and finds strong support for the basic hypothesis, especially regarding the postponement of teen births. After the teen years, the effects are less pronounced. Overall, it appears that employment opportunities have played an important role in childbearing decisions in Puerto Rico. (PUERTO RICO, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, FIRST BIRTH, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT)
94.88.08 - English - Roger A. WOJTKIEWICZ, Department of Sociology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana (U.S.A.)
Parental Structure Experiences of Children: Exposure, Transitions, and Type at Birth (p. 141-159)
This paper examines parental structure experiences during childhood and adolescence of non-Hispanic whites, blacks, Mexicans, and Puerto Ricans born 1957 to 1964. The study shows that the parental structure types most commonly experienced are mother-father, mother only, and mother-stepfather. The study also finds that a significant proportion of children move into a mother-only family and do not leave it. Finally, the study shows that the parental structure experiences of children are strongly influenced by their parental structure at birth. (UNITED STATES, FAMILY DISINTEGRATION, ONE-PARENT FAMILY)
94.88.09 - English - David O. OLALEYE, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA (U.S.A.), and Akinrinola BANKOLE, Office of Population Research, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ (U.S.A.)
The Impact of Mass Media Family Planning Promotion on Contraceptive Behavior of Women in Ghana (p. 161-177)
This paper examines the influence of media messages about family planning, and attitudes toward media promotion of family planning, on contraceptive behavior of married women in Ghana. It also examines the problem of reverse causation that arises in studies of this nature when the data used provide no information on the temporal order of the actual time that respondents were exposed to family planning information in the mass media and the time of adoption of contraceptive behavior. The results show that exposure to media messages on contraception exerts strong impact on current practice of, and intention to use, contraception. Women who had heard or seen advert on contraceptive brands, and women who favor broadcast of family planning messages in the media, are significantly more likely to adopt birth control behavior than women who had not heard or seen, and women who do not favor broadcast of such media messages, respectively. Regarding the problem of reverse causation, the study demonstrates that while being exposed to media messages significantly affects a woman's contraceptive behavior, the reverse does not seem to be the case. The policy implications of these results and how mass media could be used to promote family planning in Ghana are discussed. (GHANA, FAMILY PLANNING, PROPAGANDA, MASS MEDIA, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE)
94.88.10 - English - Thomas A. HIRSCHL, Department of Rural Sociology, and Nelson L. BILLS, Department of Agricultural Economics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY (U.S.A.)
Urban Influences on Farmland Use in New York State (p. 179-194)
This article assesses the relationship between demographic change and structural adjustments in agriculture. A number of demographic and economic analyses have posited an inverse relationship between post-1950 exurban population growth and agricultural viability, especially in the Northeast Region of the USA. To test this hypothesis, a multivariate model of percent change in county land in farms over the period 1950-1987 is estimated, and the findings only partially support the population hypothesis. Estimation results indicate that the effect of core metropolitan status is significant, but that the effects of rural population change, rural nonfarm population change, and county population deconcentration are not. The analysis demonstrates that maintenance of land in farm use largely depends upon economic forces that are national and regional in scope, and almost exclusively outside the purview of state and local farmland protection programs. (UNITED STATES, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, URBANIZATION, AGRICULTURE)
94.88.11 - English - Milind KULKARNI and Louis G. POL, College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska at Omaha, Nebraska (U.S.A.)
Migration Expectancy Revisited: Results for the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s (p. 195-202)
Planners in a variety of situations require an improved understanding of migration trends if services and products that adequately meet constituent needs are to be provided. This note focuses on changes in migration expectancy over three decades in the context of the planning function. Using the CPS one-year migration question for the periods 1975-1976, 1980-1981, and 1987-1991, and the work of Wilber (1963) and Long (1973) as historical benchmarks, migration expectancy is found to have fallen since the earlier studies. Longer-distance migration (between counties and between states) has remained relatively constant over the same period so that these types of moves now account for a larger proportion of total residential mobility. The results are discussed in the context of their value to individuals and organizations who seek a better understanding of demographically-driven demand from services and products. (UNITED STATES, INTERNAL MIGRATION, FORECASTS, ECONOMIC PLANNING)
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