Back to home pageJUNE 1991 - NUMBER 258
94.86.01 - French - Michel Louis LEVY, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)
Demography, Democracy, Technocracy (Démographie, démocratie, technocratie)
Condorcet used to dream of a social mathematics system which would serve to rationalise political decisions and help the public to understand them. Debates on the increase in the number of graduates and the degree of young peoples' preparation for the world of tomorrow, on rules regarding age and length of economic activity for establishing the best time to retire, on sharing between social contributions and direct taxes all depend on political haggling which has nothing to do with any such rationality. In order to improve the democratic debate, communes should publish a charter and then, deliberate on projects drawn up by the appropriate bodies. (FRANCE, DEMOCRACY, DECISION MAKING)
JULY-AUGUST 1991 - NUMBER 259
94.86.02 - French - Michel Louis LEVY, INED 27 rue du Commandeur 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)
All the Countries in the World (1991) (Tous les pays du monde (1991))
This is a table adapted from the Population Reference Bureau's table which, for every country in the world, gives its surface area, population numbers, birth, death and infant mortality rates. projections up to 2025, fertiity rates, proportions aged under 15 and aged 65 or over, life expectancy, GNP and GIP per inhabitant, based on 1980 prices and consumer parities. Six classifications in absolute numbers deal with surface areas, populations, births, deaths of infants aged under one, projections until 2025 and GIP. Six further classifications, in relative numbers, deal with population densities, birth and natural growth rates, fertility rates, life expectancy and indicators of youth (differences between the proportions of young and old people). (POPULATION SITUATION, WORLD POPULATION)
SEPTEMBER 1991 - NUMBER 260
94.86.03 - French - Michel Louis LEVY, INED 27 rue du Commandeur 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)
Creation of Jobs and Variations in Unemployment (Création d'emplois et variation du chômage)
The 1982 and 1990 census results confirmed Alfred Sauvy's belief according to which creating jobs did not necessarily result in a decline in unemployment. The number of men in employment is dropping while that of women is increasing (-0.9% and +12.2%), while the number of women out of work is increasing much more than that of men (+39.7% and +21.3%). In the same way, the département-specific classification of job creation is not a mirror image of that of variations in unemployment. Compared to other developed countries, France has some purely specific problems: apart from an educational system which is not correctly adapted, the weight of social contributions on low salaries is excessively high. A portion of contributions to the National Health Service could become an income tax, levied according to a progressive scale and within the framework of the household. (FRANCE, LABOUR MARKET, PUBLIC FINANCE)
OCTOBER 1991 - NUMBER 261
94.86.04 - French - Jean-Louis RALLU, Alain MONNIER INED 27 rue du Commandeur 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)
European Demographers in Paris (Les démographes européens à Paris)
On the occasion of the European Demographic Conference, held in Paris from 21st to 25th October, demographic experts reported on the balance of one century of population development and studied future prospects. Since 1950, Europe has had to deal with ageing, significant regional variations and to being neighbours with the poorest continent on the planet. Following the Second World War, fertility and mortality declined throughout Europe and, over the last twenty years, both have been higher in the East than the West. The political upheaval which has recently occurred in the East could lead to a change in this trend through new behavioural patterns with regard to internal migration and family and health policies. (EUROPE, POPULATION SITUATION, GOVERNMENT POLICY)
NOVEMBER 1991 - NUMBER 262
94.86.05 - French - Michel Louis LEVY, INED 27 rue du Commandeur 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)
Managing Human Resources (La gestion des ressources humaines)
Imbalances in salary progression depending on work start date, collective redundancies and massive and early recruitment have highlighted the need for a demographic study of the salaried workers in local communes in general. A longitudinal analysis using cohorts is applied to the study of occupational careers as well as the concept of grade and length of service pyramids. Each new decision could, in this way, lean towards a fictive stationary status. In 1986, the CNRS which has the data and the physical means of exploiting them, published a reference manual based on an analysis of its own case study. The limits of the concept of a stationary status, a fiction which is often confused with reality and requirements in terms of management software, forewarn of an explosion in the number of suitably adapted manuals. (FRANCE, PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT, LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS, TEACHING METHODS)
DECEMBER 1991 - NUMBER 263
94.86.06 - French - Michel Louis LEVY, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)
Population on the Planet (Populations sur la planète)
Two atlases of world population were published in 1991, one by Jean-Claude Chesnais, a demographer and the other by Daniel Noin, a geographer who had both covered the demographic transition in one of their previous works. In spite of differing approaches, opinions and interpretations, there is agreement on the population "paradigm". No ecological alarm bells ringing; recognition of the political role; same statistical sources - the UN; same analytical tools. But Chesnais' ancieties are mainly centered around the falling birth rate and ageing in the industrialised countries, while Noin focuses on the rapid population growth of the poorer countries. (WOLRD POPULATION, POPULATION SITUATION, GEOGRAPHIC MAPS, POPULATION TRANSITION)
JANUARY 1992 - NUMBER 264
92.86.07 - French - Gérard CALOT, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75975 Paris Cedex 14 (France)
Fertility in Europe: Analogies and Divergence (La fécondité en Europe: analogie et différences)
The author extends his comparison of fertility in France and Sweden, using time series and longitudinal approaches, which he commenced in issue number 245 in April 1990. It now covers Northern, Western and Southern Europe. A new fertility pattern, emanating from the "second contraceptive revolution" and of which the main characteristics is both a lower rate and later start to fertility, occurs at different dates in different countries. The later timing of this occurrence could, inter alia, depend on the means devoted to family policies. (EUROPE, FERTILITY, COMPLETED FAMILY SIZE, POPULATION POLICY)
FEBRUARY 1992 - NUMBER 265
92.86.08 - French - Gérard CALOT, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)
The Replacement of Generations (La relève des générations)
With a fertility rate stagnating for the past fifteen years at 1.8 children per woman, France's generations are no longer being replaced; 86.5% of the net replacement rate in 1990 as against more than 125% from 1950 to 1965. Unless migrations increase considerably, the core group of reproductive ages will decline by the year 2005, due to the previous decline in the number of births; and after 2005, if fertility remains at its present level of 1.8 children per woman. (FRANCE, POPULATION REPLACEMENT, FERTILITY RATE)
MARCH 1992 - NUMBER 266
92.86.09 - French - Michel Louis LEVY, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)
From 54 to 57 Million Inhabitants (De 54 à 57 millions d'habitants)
As of January 1st, 1992, there were 57.2 million inhabitants in France. Birth rates are falling as are fertility rates: 1.77 children per woman in 1991. The number of births out of wedlock is increasing while the number of deaths has stabilised. Life expectancy continues to grow while population ageing is becoming more widespread. The migratory balance, as in 1990, is greater than the annual average of the two previous intercensal periods. Total growth, 0.55%, is greater than forecasted. If this rate were to remain constant, the population would increase to 60 million in nine years' time, i.e., 2001, while it took 11 years to increase from 54 to 57 million. (FRANCE, POPULATION SITUATION)
APRIL 1992 - NUMBER 267
92.86.10 - French - Michel Louis LEVY, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)
Länder and Regions (Länder et régions)
Since 1990, Federal Germany is made up of 16 States (Länder) of which five were originally in what was called East Germany and 36 districts (Regierungsvezirke). The latter are more homogeneous than the 22 French regions, both in terms of population and density. The Länder have better population statistics than French regions thanks to their micro-census (annual 1/100 sample survey) and to their municipal population registers. European countries need to put their heads together on local administrative and statistical matters. (GERMANY, FRANCE, LOCAL GOVERNMENT, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS)
MAY 1992 - NUMBER 268
92.86.11 - French - Michel Louis LEVY, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)
ME ="86.10"> Illiteracy in the World (L'analphabétisme dans le monde)
According to the first World Education Report published by UNESCO in 1991, the proportion of illiterates is close to one-quarter of the adult population for the whole of the planet while it is more than one-third in the developing countries. It is hoped that the overall rate will decline from 26.5% in 1990 to 22% in the year 2000, but population growth will only enable stabilisation in absolute numbers: 948 million in 1990 and 935 million in 2000. In order to ensure constant educatioin (amongst 15 to 19-year-olds, the number of illiterates is lower than for adults), some countries are running into considerable difficulties - this can even prove impossible for them even under the hypothesis of the most favourable conditions of economic growth, given the increase in the number of children. (DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, ILLITERACY, POPULATION GROWTH, ECONOMIC GROWTH)
JUNE 1992 - NUMBER 269
92.86.12 - French - Marie-Agnès BARRERE-MAURISSON, CNRS, et Olivier MARCHAND, INSEE, 18 boulavard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)
Family Sociology and Statistics (Sociologie familiale et statistiques)
A sociologist and a statistician are proposing a classification of families by the collective ties they hold with occupational life: families with only one economically active member, two active members, with equivalent incomes and status or not. Based on INSEE's 1989 Employment Survey for salaried couples living together, i.e., almost 12 million people, it is also possible to use this typology for the study of specific milieux. Between the "reductionism" of statistics and the infinite social complexity, some regularities do appear which confirm the interest of studying occupational and family trends together. (FRANCE, FAMILY, SOCIO-OCCUPATIONAL CATEGORY, SOCIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS)
JULY-AUGUST 1992 - NUMBER 270
92.86.13 - French - Michel Louis LEVY, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)
Economically Active Population and Social Categories as of the 1990 Census (Population active et catégories sociales au recensement de 1990)
As of the 1990 census and compared to that of 1982, the number of economicamlly active people in employment (22-23 million) has increased by 3.6%. The number of salaried workers is continuing to increase and now represents 85.6% of the total economically active population. The distribution between the traditional primary, secondary and tertiary sectors, which was 8%, 34% and 58%, is now lying at 6%, 30% and 64%. 500,000 jobs have been lost in the agricultural sector (-29%), most of them smallholding farmers. Industry is continuing to decline as are the number and proportion of "labourers". The tertiary sector has gained about 1.9 million jobs, mainly in the teaching, health and Civil Service fields. The numbers in "intermediate occupations" and "employees" are increasing and there has been a spectacular leap in the number of "self employed" (+32%) and "upper management and higher intellectual occupatioins" (+40%). (FRANCE, CENSUS, ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION, SOCIO-OCCUPATIONAL CATEGORY, ECONOMIC SECTOR)
SEPTEMBER 1992 - NUMBER 271
92.86.14 - French - Michel Louis LEVY, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)
The Bicentary of Civil Marriages (Le bicentenaire du mariage civil)
As a results of the open crisis in 1789 between Church and State, two laws which were voted in on September 20th, 1792 by the Legislative Assembly broght in a new civil code, contained in which were civil status and civil marriages; until then, registers of births, marriages and deaths had been held by the clergy. While, today, nobody forgets to declare births and deaths to the Registrar, couples are getting married less frequently, including those who go on to have children (proportion of births out of wedlock - 7% in 1970 and 30% in 10990). Does this situation need to be reviewed? Should an overall status of civil rights be conferred upon all manner of cohabitation? Or should we now be looking at a civil marriage purely on a declaratory basis? (FRANCE, CIVIL MARRIAGE, CONSENSUAL UNION, ILLEGITIMATE CHILDREN)
OCTOBER 1992 - NUMBER 272
92.86.15 - French - Elisabeth OMOLUABI, INED-CEPED, 15 rue de l'Ecole de Médecine, 75270 Paris Cedex 06, and Michel Louis LEVY, INED, 27 rue du Comandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)
The Nigerian Census (Le recensement du Nigéria)
While the United Nations had indicated a population of 122.5 million in Nigeria in 1991, the 1991 census recorded only 88.5 million or 34 million less than the UN. The census was carried out under the strictest conditions and cannot be held suspect. In fact, for decades now, the main fault of the censues has been to over-estimate to a significant degree. Ethnic groups, regions, States and the Federal State rivalled in the over-estimating stakes as representatiion within Parliament and receiving aid depended on population numbers. Since the 1962 census was cancelled - although it was correct - Nigeria and the international agencies have been supplying estimated ased on the figures - excessive but still valid - from the 1963 census. This can only emphasise the need for the statistical agencies of a State to be independent. (NIGERIA, CENSUS, ETHNIC GROUP, POPULATION STATISTICS)
NOVEMBER 1992 - NUMBER 273
92.86.16 - French - Michel Louis LEVY, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France).
From the 21st Report (Au fil du 21e rapport)
Every year, a report is prepared by INED on the country's demographic trends, as decreed by the Neuwirth law of December 28th, 1967. Since 1973, this report has contained two sections: one on the population situation in France, the other on varying topics. The 21st report, published in 1992, covers, amongst other topics in its first section, the population in the overseas territories, premature deaths and foreigns at the time of the 1990 census. The second section deals with "Europe in the early 1990s": Eastern Europe, European Economic Community (natural growth, migratory flows, causes of death, childbearing and fertility, etc.). (FRANCE, EASTERN EUROPE, ECE, UN, ANNUAL REPORTS, DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS)
DECEMBER 1992 - NUMBER 274
92.86.17 - French - Michel Louis LEVY, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)
On Population Policies (De la politique de population)
In France, should a population policy be clearly laid out and put under the responsibility of specific structures such as the Ministries of Social Security, Immigration and the Family? Or else, an all-encompassing Ministry of Population such as Robert Debré and Alfred Sauvy foresaw in their 1945 project? In France, Sweden and Great Britain where family policies are very different, the fertility rates were very similar over long periods of time. Are the results obtained due to the policies applied or to spontaneous trends? The question remains, but any "population policy" is nothing more than an overall social policy. (FRANCE, SWEDEN, ENGLAND, POPULATION POLICY, SOCIAL POLICY)
JANUARY 1993 - NUMBER 275
94.86.18 - French - Michel Louis LEVY, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France).
International Migration in OECD Countries until 1991 (Migrations internationales dans les pays de l'OCDE jusqu'en 1991)
The Permanent Migration Observation System (SOPEMI which is a network containing some 20 OECD countries) published its 19th annual report in July 1992: "Trends in International Migration". It highlights the increased migratory flows and their diversification in 1990 and 1991; any similarities between the migratory policies of various OECD countries; the size and specific nature of immigration in Germany which is the main host country for migrants from both Central and Eastern Europe. But measuring migration and making comparisons between countries is not without difficulty: international cooperative efforts are necessary from the political, administrative and statistical viewpoints. (OECD COUNTRIES, EASTERN EUROPE, GERMANY, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, MIGRATION POLICY)
FEBRUARY 1993 - NUMBER 276
94.86.19 - French - MIchel BOZON, HENRI LERIDON, Benoît RIANDEY, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France), and groupe ACSF-INSERM, 101 rue de Tolbiac 75654 Paris Cedex 13 (France)
Sexual Behaviour in France: From one Report to Another (Les comportements sexuels en France: d'un Rapport à l'autre)
The "Simon Report" which was a survey on the sexual behaviour of the French carried out in 1970 at the instigation of the private sector and using private funding, followed on in the wake of changing social behaviour after 1968. The ACSF survey, "An Analysis of Sexual Behaviour in France" which was undertaken over 1991-1992 by a multi-disciplinary team led by Alfred Spira, was done at the instigation of the public sector, using public funding and was aimed at drawing up strategies for the prevention of AIDS. Its aim was to update knowledge on "risky" sexual behavioural patterns. Comparing the two surveys makes it possible to highlight the fact that the changes which have occurred in the past twenty years in men and women's behaviour are less radical than was originally thought. The main change has been a sharp decline in prostitution. (FRANCE, SEXUAL BEHAVIOIUR, AIDS)
MARCH 1993 - NUMBER 277
94.86.20 - French - Colin POWER, UNESCO, 7 Place de Fontenoy 75007 Paris (France), Léon GANI, Université René Descartes-Paris V 12 rue de l'Ecole de Médecine 75270 Paris Cedex 06 (France), Mouna Liliane SAMMAN, UNESCO, Nico Van NIMWEGEN and Hans Van den BREKEL, NIDI, Lange Houtstraat 19, 2511 CV The Hague (Netherlands)
Demography, Education and Public Opinion (Démographie, éducation, opinion publique)
On the occasion of the "International Conference on Population and Development Education" in Istanbul, Colin Power, Assistant Director General for Education at UNESCO, underlined the importance of this education. Léon Gani, a professor of demography, suggests that young people throughout Europe should receive a "demographic schooling" as an integral part of their civic education. For both Nico van Nimwegen and Hans van den Brekel from The Netherlands, demographic information should be available to the population as a whole and should help foster the spread of "responsible citizenship". Mouna Liliane Samman of UNESCO would like to see teaching on international migration viewed from a world perspective rather than national. (EUROPE, FRANCE, NETHERLANDS, DEMOGRAPHY, EDUCATION, PUBLIC OPINION)
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