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United Kingdom (London) 58

POPULATION STUDIES

1994 - VOLUME 48, NUMERO 1

94.58.01 - English - A. DHARMALINGAM, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104 (U.S.A.)

Old Age Support: Expectations and Experiences in a South Indian Village (p. 5-20)

Future expectations of support in old age and current conditions of living among the elderly are analysed in the context of changing socioeconomic structures in a South Indian village. Evidence shows that the traditional means of support - sons - are becoming less reliable. The experience of the elderly, on the other hand, shows that the elderly are in a worse economic situation than would be expected from the Indian cultural ideal. In particular, the poor and women are most affected in terms of old-age support. The evidence about the link between fertility and old-age support suggests a middle position in the Cain-Vlassoff debate. While existing living conditions make children the main source of support in old age, they are becoming less reliable as a result of recent economic and social changes. (INDIA, AGED, SOCIAL SECURITY, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS)

94.58.02 - English - Deborah BALK, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48104-2590 (U.S.A.)

Individual and Community Aspects of Women's Status and Fertility in Rural Bangladesh (p. 21-46)

This paper examines the relationship between women's status and fertility in two regions of rural Bangladesh. Based on individual and household-level survey data, women's status is measured through four constructs. The covariates of these four aspects of women's status vary considerably and confirm the view that women's status is conceptually and operationally complex. For all aspects, however, variation between villages accounts for the largest share of explainable variance. Proxy measures of status do not provide uniform relationships with all facets of status. Further, the paper shows that women's status is an important determinant of fertility; of the variance in total children ever born that can be explained by factors other than age, nearly 30 per cent is due to direct measures of women's status; this is as much as can be explained by all other socioeconomic variables combined. Thus, models of fertility that rely solely on proxy measures of women's status will be underspecified. In addition, measurement of women's status that does not account for the bias that women's status and fertility are simultaneously determined in patriarchal societies will misstate the direction, and underestimate the effects, of status on fertility. Lastly, different dimensions of women's status influence fertility differently - in terms of magnitude, direction and statistical significance.. (BANGLADESH, WOMEN'S STATUS, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, METHOLOGY)

94.58.03 - English - Dominique MEEKERS, Department of Sociology, The Pennsylvania State University, 206 Oswald Tower, Philadelphia, PA (U.S.A.)

Sexual Initiation and Premarital Childbearing in Sub-Saharan Africa (p. 47-64)

Many studies have suggested that unmarried adolescent childbearing is becoming a social problem in many countries of sub-Saharan Africa, because it tends to lead to school drop-outs, illegal abortions, and child abandonment. To date, the motivations for adolescent childbearing remain poorly understood. One point of view is that unmarried adolescent childbearing results from a breakdown of social controls by the elders over young people. Others have argued that adolescent childbearing is a form of rational adaptation; a means to achieve a specific goal. For example, girls may choose to become pregnant if they believe that a pregnancy will lead to marriage. In this paper adolescent sexual activity and premarital childbearing in seven sub-Saharan African countries are examined with data from Demographic and Health Surveys. In a first section, the impact of socioeconomic indicators on adolescent sexual and reproductive behaviour is examined; a subsequent section is focused on the motivation for different types of adolescent behaviour. (AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, ADOLESCENT PREGNANCY, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, PREMARITAL SEX BEHAVIOUR)

94.58.04 - English - Zeng YI, Ansley COALE, Minja KIM CHOE, Liang ZHIWU and Liu LI, Institute of Population Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China)

Leaving the Parental Home: Census-Based Estimates for China, Japan, South Korea, United States, France, and Sweden (p. 65-80)

Using the iterative intra-cohort interpolation procedure, this article tries to remedy the lack of data on home-leaving by providing an international comparison of estimated census-based single-year age-specific net rates of leaving home for males and females in China, Japan, South Korea, United States, France, and Sweden. It demonstrates that large differences in the age pattern of leaving the parental home between the East Asian and the Western countries. For example, the median ages at home-leaving of males and females in the three East Asian countries studied were higher than those in the three Western countries studied by a margin of 2-3 years. The role played by social and cultural traditions as well as by ethnic ideologies in the large differences in the home-leaving pattern between the East Asian and Western countries is also considered. (CHANGES OF RESIDENCE, FAMILY LIFE CYCLE, FAMILY COMPOSITION, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

94.58.05 - English - E.A. WRIGLEY, 13 Sedley Taylor Road, Cambridge CB2 2PW (U.K.)

The Effect of Migration on the Estimation of Marriage Age in Family Reconstitution Studies (p. 81-98)

Ruggles has shown that, if marriage and migration are independent phenomena, age at marriage estimates derived from family reconstitution studies can be misleading because those who marry late are more likely to have migrated before marriage than those who marry early. Marriage age estimates based on 'stayers' will therefore be lower than would be the case if 'leavers' were also included. Whether this was true of English reconstitution data, however, is an empirical rather than a logical question. Evidence from the Census of 1851 suggests that the mean age at marriage of 'leavers' was very similar to that of 'stayers' (i.e. that marriage and migration were not independent phenomena). But, though age at marriage was much the same in the two groups, the proportions ever marrying were very different: celibacy was far commoner among 'stayers' than among 'leavers'. (ENGLAND, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, AGE AT MARRIAGE, FAMILY RECONSTITUTION, MIGRATION)

94.58.06 - English - Antonio McDANIEL and Samuel H. PRESTON, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104 (U.S.A.)

Patterns of Mortality by Age and Cause of Death among Nineteenth-Century Immigrants to Liberia (p. 99-116)

The majority of studies relating to mortality conditions in nineteenth-century Africa deal with the small number of white settlers or visitors. This paper examines the level and causes of mortality in Liberia of Africans who emigrated from the United States. We describe crude and age-standardized death rates by cause of death, and examine the age pattern of mortality and its conformity to existing models of age patterns for causes of death. The results of this analysis indicate that the age pattern of mortality of the Liberian immigrant population recapitulates rather precisely existing models of age patterns for all causes of death, and from specific causes. (LIBERIA, IMMIGRANTS, DEATH RATE, CAUSES OF DEATH, MODELS)

94.58.07 - English - Katherine A. LYNCH and Joel B. GREENHOUSE, Department of History, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890 (U.S.A.)

Risk Factors for Infant Mortality in Nineteenth-Century Sweden (p. 117-134)

This study examines risk factors for infant mortality using individual-level data from a sample of parishes in northern Sweden in the nineteenth century. Sweden is of particular interest because of its unusually regular pattern of infant mortality decline during the century. We follow a sample of women longitudinally through their successive pregnancies and observe the mortality experience of each child. Exploratory and multivariate logistic regression analyses reveal an important intra-familial dimension to infant mortality that appears from the early stages of a woman's reproductive career. In addition, multivariate analyses by birth-order group suggest that ignoring intra-familial correlations of infant mortality may result in incorrect inferences. Siblings' shared probabilities of dying as infants suggest that high-birth-order children were not necessarily disadvantaged in any systematic way. (SWEDEN, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, INFANT MORTALITY, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS, SIBLINGS)

94.58.08 - English - Patrick R. GALLOWAY, Eugene A. HAMMEL and Ronald D. LEE, Department of Demography, University of California, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720 (U.S.A.)

Fertility Decline in Prussia, 1875-1910: A Pooled Cross-Section Time Series Analysis (p. 135-158)

Marital fertility level and decline are examined in 407 small areas in Prussia using quinquennial data for the period 1875 to 1910 from an unusually rich and detailed data set, and pooled cross-section time-series methods. Religion, ethnicity, and prevalence of mineworkers are the only statistically significant factors associated with marital fertility level. However, none of these are important predictors of marital fertility decline. Marital fertility decline in nineteenth-century Prussia is better predicted by increased women's labour force participation in non-traditional occupations, the growth of financial institutions, the development of a transport-communications infra-structure, reduction in infant mortality and improvements in education. (GERMANY, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)

1994 - VOLUME 48, NUMBER 2

94.58.09 - English - Barbara S. OKUN, Department of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mount Scopus, Jerusalem 91905 (Israel)

Evaluating Methods for Detecting Fertility Control: Coale and Trussell's Model and Cohort Parity Analysis (p. 193-222)

In their attempts to distinguish empirically between the innovation/diffusion and adaptation views of fertility transition, researchers have pointed out that evidence of fertility control practised by a significant proportion of women in pre-transition populations would render claims that fertility fell as a result of innovative behaviour less convincing. This paper uses simulation techniques to evaluate the ability of two indirect measures of fertility control, Coale and Trussell's model (M & m) and Cohort Parity Analysis (CPA), to identify the presence or absence of fertility controllers, as well as to detect changes in the extent of control. We conclude that neither M & m nor CPA can be relied on to identify accurately a minority of controllers in a population of interest. These findings suggest the need for a reassessment of some of the evidence cited in the debate over alternative theories of fertility decline. (METHODOLOGY, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, FERTILITY DECLINE, CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE)

94.58.10 - English - Robin HAINES, Faculty of Social Sciences, The Flinders University of South Australia, GPO Box 2100, Adelaide 5001 (Australia)

Indigent Misfits or Shrewd Operators? Government-Assisted Emigrants from the United Kingdom to Australia, 1831-1860 (p. 223-248)

Passages funded by Australia's colonial governments accounted for 56 per cent of all arrivals from the United Kingdom between 1831 and 1860. In concert with a range of private, Colonial Office, and Poor Law sources in the UK, analysis of data on the emigrants' age, sex, occupation, county of origin, literacy, and religious persuasion, collected by colonial Immigration Agents, challenges the traditional view of Australia's government immigrants. Rather than indigent misfits, shovelled out by a system anxious to rid the UK of its poor, they were primarily well-informed, self-selecting, literate individuals who often sought help from philanthropic agencies or their local parish to enable them to finance their passage deposit, mandatory clothing, and travel to the port of embarkation. Comparative analysis of data on occupation and county of origin, which suggests that they were not the spillover of the North America-bound streams, further challenges the prevailing view. (AUSTRALIA, UNITED KINGDOM, HISTORY, IMMIGRANTS, ASSISTED IMMIGRATION)

94.58.11 - English - Oystein KRAVDAL, Central Bureau of Statistics, P.B. 8131, Dep., 0033 Oslo (Norway)

The Importance of Economic Activity, Economic Potential and Economic Resources for the Timing of First Births in Norway (p. 249-268)

This hazard model analysis is based on data from a recent sample survey linked with individual income records from the Directorate for Taxation. It demonstrates that work experience strongly increases the rate of entry into parenthood in Norway, a result which has not appeared clearly in previous investigations in other countries. Moreover, the analysis confirms that longer time spent in school is an important explanation for the rising age at first birth. The birth intensity for a single woman decreases as her educational level and income potential improve. Apart from that, variables related to current or prospective women's wages seem to be unimportant. These results suggest that wealth accumulation deserves a central position in the theoretical models, and throw doubt on the notion that costs of childbearing are high for women with a high earning potential. Alternative interpretations are also discussed. (NORWAY, FIRST BIRTH, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, INCOME)

94.58.12 - English - Christine L. HIMES, Samuel H. PRESTON and Gretchen A. CONDRAN, Population Research Institute, Pennsylvania State University, 22 Burrowes Building, University Park, PA 16802 (U.S.A.)

A Relational Model of Mortality at Older Ages in Low Mortality Countries (p. 269-292)

This paper presents a relational model of age-specific death rates at ages 45-99. It is based upon death rates calculated for single years of age and five-year periods from 1950 to 1985 in 16 low-mortality countries. Eighty-two data sets are used in the construction of the model. These data passed a rigorous quality test which involved comparisons of intercensal changes in cohort size with intercensal deaths. Construction of the model is based upon a logit transformation of death rates, which performed slightly better than a logarithmic transformation in statistical tests. A 'standard' mortality pattern is produced as a summary of age-specific death rates in these 82 data sets. Expressed in logits, the standard is highly linear in age for males. For females, systematic curvature of the type first identified by Horiuchi and Coale is observed. The proportionate rate of change in women's age-specific death rates is highest in the age group 70-80. Once this pattern has been embodied in the standard, we are generally more successful in predicting death rates for females than for males in the 82 populations by means of a two-parameter linear transformation of the standard. Thus, the value of using the relational model relative to Gompertz or logistic representations of age patterns is much greater for females than for males. Over time in a particular country, that parameter which represents the level of mortality, Ó, has generally fallen for both sexes and faster for females. The value of the slope parameter, ß, has also typically fallen, reflecting larger gains in logits of age-specific death rates at the very old than at younger old ages. This trend casts doubt on the validity of the 'rectangularizing survival curve' as a representation of old-age mortality trends. We conclude that there is little evidence of regional clustering in values of ß, which suggests that regional model life tables are losing utility as a tool for the study of old-age mortality in low-mortality countries. We demonstrate how the relational model can be used graphically to identify national idiosyncracies in old-age mortality. In addition, we show that data that failed our earlier quality cheek typically begin to exhibit an irregular pattern of deviations from the standard around the ages at which the data deteriorate. (METHODOLOGY, MODELS, MORTALITY RATE, AGED)

94.58.13 - English - Cynthia B. LLOYD and Anastasia J. GAGE-BRANDON, The Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017 (U.S.A.)

High Fertility and Children's Schooling in Ghana: Sex Differences in Parental Contributions and Educational Outcomes (p. 293-306)

This paper explores the linkages at the family level between sustained high fertility and children's schooling in Ghana, in the context of a constrained economic environment and rising school fees. The unique feature of the paper is its exploration of the operational significance of alternative definitions of "sib size" - the number of "samemother" siblings and "same-father" siblings - in relation to enrolment, grade attainment, and school drop-out for boys and girls of primary and secondary school age. The analysis is based on the first wave of the Ghana Living Standards Measurement Survey (GLSS) data, collected in 1987-88. The results of the statistical analysis lead to the conclusion that the coexistence of high fertility, rising school costs, and economic reversals is having a negative impact on the education of girls, in terms of drop-out rates and grade attainment. Some of the costs of high fertility are borne by older siblings (particularly girls) rather than by parents, with the result that children from larger families experience greater inequality between themselves and their siblings by sex and birth order. Because fathers have more children on average than mothers, the inequality between their children appears to be even greater than between mothers' children, particularly given the importance of fathers' role in the payment of school fees. The paper concludes that the greatest cost for children in Ghana of sustained high fertility is likely to be the reinforcement of traditional sex roles, largely a product of high fertility in the past. (GHANA, HIGH FERTILITY ZONES, ENROLMENT RATE, SEX DIFFERENTIALS)

94.58.14 - English - David R. WEIR, Population Research Center, University of Chicago, 1155 East Sixtieth Street, Chicago, Illinois 60637 (U.S.A.)

New Estimates of Nuptiality and Marital Fertility in France, 1740-1911 (p. 307-332)

This paper produces new annual estimates of the Princeton indices of overall fertility, nuptiality, marital, and non-marital fertility for France from 1740 to 1911. To do so, it first develops a method to reconstruct (back-project) a closed female population by age (above age 10) and marital status from a good terminal census and registration data on deaths and marriages by age and marital status. The new estimates differ somewhat from those of van de Walle for the period 1830 to 1870, but are in agreement with other evidence. From this new longer perspective we observe that slow declines in nuptiality from 1740 to 1820 gave way to a marital fertility transition beginning in the 1790s. After 1820, nuptiality rose but the marital fertility decline dominated the movement of total fertility. These general trends were punctuated by plateaus in marital fertility from 1800 to 1820 and 1850 to 1875, and in nuptiality from 1875 to 1895. (FRANCE, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, FERTILITY DECLINE, LEGITIMATE FERTILITY RATE, NUPTIALITY)

94.58.15 - English - W. John PAGET and Ian M. TIMAEUS, Swiss Federal Office of Public Health, Division of Medicine, Hess Strasse 27E, 3097 Bern-Liebefeld (Switzerland)

A Relational Gompertz Model of Male Fertility: Development and Assessment (p. 333-340)

Brass has proposed a relational Gompertz model of female fertility which, in combination with the standard fertility distribution developed by Booth, has proved useful in a range of applications, such as indirect estimation, demographic modelling, and population projections. This paper develops a standard distribution of male fertility for use in conjunction with the relational Gompertz model. The derivation of the standard takes advantage of the similarity between the shape of male and female fertility distributions. It entails 'stretching' the female standard, so that it extends to age 80, and then transforming it, using the Gompertz model into a pattern which is more typical of male fertility distributions in the developing world. An assessment of this new standard by fitting the relational Gompertz model based on it to a series of male fertility distributions from diverse populations, suggests that it performs very well. (METHODOLOGY, FERTILITY, MEN, MODELS)

94.58.16 - English - Nico KEILMAN, Statistics Norway, Division for Demography and Living Conditions, PO Box 8131 Dep, 0033 Oslo 1 (Norway)

Translation Formulae for Non-Repeatable Events (p. 341-358

Ryder's translation expressions for repeatable events are extended to the case of nonrepeatable events. It is found that cohort quantum is a constant function of time when period quantum is constant, and period tempo, as measured by the moments of the age pattern of the occurrence-exposure rates, change linearly with time. The degree of distributional distortion (that is, the upward or downward shift in cohort quantum caused by changes in the period age pattern), given a set of occurrence-exposure rates, is generally less for non-repeatable than for repeatable events in this case, in particular at high quantum levels. Furthermore, it is found that when period tempo is constant over time, and period quantum falls linearly, period quantum underestimates cohort quantum for high period quantum levels, and overestimates it for low period quantum levels. (METHODOLOGY, FERTILITY, MEN, MODELS)

1994 - VOLUME 48, NUMBER 3

94.58.17 - English - Griffith FEENEY, Program on Population, The East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii 96848 (U.S.A.), and Yuan JIANHUA, Beijing Institute of Information and Control, Beijing (China)

Below Replacement Fertility in China? A Close Look at Recent Evidence (p. 381-394)

This paper presents detailed evidence on fertility levels and trends in China from a survey conducted in 1992 by the State Family Planning Commission. The evidence is analyzed internally and by comparison with evidence from the Census of Population of 1990 and from two previous surveys. The results of the 1992 survey, which indicated fertility levels far below replacement during the early 1990s, have been greeted with considerable scepticism. Close attention has therefore been paid to evidence and argument bearing on the completeness of reporting of births in the survey. While the survey data probably understate fertility levels after 1990, the results for 1990 and before appear to be generally reliable. Even allowing for substantial underreporting of births during 1991-92, it appears likely that Chinese fertility did, in fact, fall to replacement level during the early 1990s. (CHINA, FERTILITY DECLINE, QUALITY OF DATA)

94.58.18 - English - James LEE, California Institute for Technology, California (U.S.A.), Wang FENG, East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii 96848 (U.S.A.), and Cameron CAMPBELL, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA (U.S.A.)

Infant and Child Mortality among the Qing Nobility. Implications for Two Types of Positive Checks (p. 395-411)

Demographers, as early as Malthus, have assumed that in traditional China the positive check, mortality, was largely beyond human control. This paper re-examines the role of the positive check in late imperial China through an analysis of an historical source of unprecedented demographic detail and accuracy: the genealogy of the Qing (1644-1911) imperial lineage. Basing ourselves on our calculations on the infant, child, and young adult mortality of 33,000 lineage members born in Beijing between 1700 and 1840, we conclude that during the late eighteenth century, many lineage couples regularly used infanticide to control the number and sex of their infants. At the same time, they also took advantage of innovations in paediatric care to protect the children they decided to keep. Although these results derive from an elite population, they, nevertheless, call into question our understanding of the operation of the positive check in late imperial China's demographic system, suggesting a much larger potential role for individual agency than was previously thought. (CHINA, HISTORY, INFANT MORTALITY, YOUTH MORTALITY, INFANTICIDE)

94.58.19 - English - Zhongwei ZHAO, ESRC Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure, Cambridge (U.K.)

Demographic Conditions and Multi-Generation Households in Chinese History. Results from Genealogical Research and Microsimulation (p. 413-425)

The large multi-generation household has been a popular subject in the study of Chinese social history. This study compares outcomes of computer micro-simulation with results from genealogical research, and is particularly concentrated on the potential pattern of multi-generation co-residence in the past. On the basis of such a comparison, questions concerning the impact of demographic conditions on the formation and composition of large multi-generation households, the change in lifetime residential experiences of each individual, and the use of genealogical records in the study of Chinese social demographic history are also examined. (CHINA, HISTORY, EXTENDED FAMILY, GENEALOGY, MICROSIMULATION)

94.58.20 - English - Arthur P. WOLF, Stanford University (U.S.A.), and Chuang YING-CHANG, Institute of Ethnology, Academia Sinica, Taipei (Taiwan)

Fertility and Women's Labour: Two Negative (but Instructive) Findings (p. 427-433)

In northern Taiwan (as in many other places in South China) two Chinese populations with distinct traditions lived side by side. In one group, the Hokkien, women bound their feet and never worked in the fields; in the other, the Hakka, they did not bind their feet and worked in the fields as men did. Data drawn from household registers for the period 1905-1980 are used to test two hypotheses which argued that women's participation in productive labour reduced their fertility. Both are rejected. (TAIWAN, HISTORY, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)

94.58.21 - English - Simon GREGSON, Geoffrey P. GARNETT and Roy M. ANDERSON, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS (U.K.)

Assessing the Potential Impact of the HIV-1 Epidemic on Orphanhood and the Demographic Structure of Populations in Sub-Saharan Africa (p. 435-458)

Much of the debate on the demographic consequences of the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa has so far centred around the plausibility of population declines in areas where unprecendently high rates of population growth have recently been in evidence. In this article, the authors use a mathematical model, which combines epidemiological and demographic processes, to illustrate how, under a broad range of impacts on population growth, major changes in demographic features, such as the extent of orphanhood within populations, are likely to occur. At the same time, HIV epidemics are liable to cause significant shifts in the age and sex composition of affected populations, which may have important implications for the ways in which they are best able to cope with the increases in orphanhood, as well as those in infant, early childhood and adult mortality. (AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AIDS, ORPHANHOOD, AGE-SEX DISTRIBUTION, MORTALITY INCREASE)

94.58.22 - English - Ulla LARSEN, Department of Population and International Health, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA (U.S.A.)

Sterility in Sub-Saharan Africa (p. 459-474)

Simulations and empirical findings justified the estimation of sterility by age in many African countries where the prevalence of sterility has not been measured previously. Simulations indicated that age-specific sterility rates between ages 20 and 44 may be obtained from populations that use contraception, as long as the rates of contraceptive use and contraceptive efficacy do not exceed specified limits, and the sample size is at least 1,500 cases. In Botswana, Kenya, and Zimbabwe contraceptive practice has become so prevalent, that measures of sterility were deemed to be biased when all women were included in the samples analyzed. The prevalence of sterility varied markedly across selected African countries, and was high relative to levels prevailing in populations with little disease. Prevalence of sterility was highest in Cameroon and lowest in Burundi. In Cameroon and Sudan sterility before age 35 appeared to have declined slightly from the World Fertility Surveys around 1980 to the Demographic and Health Surveys around 1990. In Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, and Senegal there was evidence of a decline in sterility during the 1980s. (AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, STERILITY, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

94.58.23 - English - Gigi SANTOW and Michael BRACHER, Demography Unit, Stockholm University, S-10691 Stockholm (Sweden)

Change and Continuity in the Formation of First Marital Unions in Australia (p. 475-496)

Marriage rates have now been falling in all Western countries for more than 20 years. Rising levels of women's education and employment, extra-marital cohabitation, and separation and divorce both preceded, and continue to accompany, this trend. We apply hazard's models to a data-set rich in event-history information in order to study the links between these movements at the level of the individual in Australia. Contra the New Home Economists it transpires that longer education lowers women's propensity to marry, not by providing them with alternative careers to marriage, but by delaying their entry into the marriage market. Again, contra the New Home Economists, employment actually increases women's marriage probabilities. Cohabitation serves variously as an alternative and a prelude to formal marriage. Finally, in contrast with a study of marriage dissolution in Australia, the strengths of factors that variously inhibit or promote marriage, such as women's education and employment, have neither weakened nor strengthened during the recent past. (AUSTRALIA, NUPTIALITY RATE, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, LEVELS OF EDUCATION)

94.58.24 - English - Renata FORSTE, Department of Sociology, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 98225-9081 (U.S.A.)

The Effects of Breastfeeding and Birth Spacing on Infant and Child Mortality in Bolivia (p. 497-511)

Data from the Demographic and Health Survey of Bolivia, 1989, are used to examine the influence of breastfeeding and birth spacing on infant and child mortality during the first two years of life. Event-history techniques show that illness which leads to the cessation of lactation, rather than the cessation of lactation for other reasons, is the dominant factor contributing to mortality. Where lactation is separated from the effect of illness, it had no effect on infant and child survival, except during the very early months of life. Short birth intervals also increased the risk of dying during the first two years of life, as did receiving ante-natal care from a midwife. (BOLIVIA, INFANT MORTALITY, YOUTH MORTALITY, BREAST FEEDING, BIRTH SPACING)

94.58.25 - English - Paul HUCK, Department of Economics, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, NC 27109 (U.S.A.)

Infant Mortality in Nine Industrial Parishes in Northern England, 1813-1836 (p. 513-526)

Evidence about infant mortality in a number of industrial towns was derived from baptismal and burial registers of the Anglican Church. The level of infant mortality during the period 1813-1836, after correction for underregistration, was comparable to that of British towns during the second half of the century. Infant mortality increased during this period, perhaps as a reflection of rapid population growth. In each of the parishes a winter peak and a summer trough was found in the seasonal index of infant deaths during this period. This pattern is very different from the high summer mortality that prevailed in British towns during the late nineteenth century. However, mortality in the summer increased over time, thus reducing the depth of the summer trough in infant deaths, and perhaps represents a movement towards the summer peak so apparent later in the century. (ENGLAND, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, INFANT MORTALITY, SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS)

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