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1992 - VOLUME 48, NUMBER 1-2

94.48.01 - English - Jon ANSON

The Second Dimension: A Proposed Measure of the Rectangularity of Mortality Curves

It has been shown previously that, in order to differentiate between mortality tables, only two pieces of orthogonal information are required: the mortality level and the shape of the mortality curve. The author shows here that, whatever the mortality level, the rectangularity of the curve can be estimated directly on the basis of the survivors in table (lx) by comparing the survivors at ages 35-59 to the square of the survivors aged 15 to 34. Survivors at age 35 can be considered a measure of the mortality level which is independent of the curve's shape. These two indices should make it possible to evaluate the effects of the social context on the level separately from the rectangularity of the distributions. (METHODOLOGY, LIFE TABLES)

94.48.02 - English - Gustavo DE SANTIS

A Standardized Measure of the Years Spent in a Given Conjugal or Marital State

The tools available to demographers for describing the processes of marriage building and dissolution are highly satisfactory. But it is generally difficult to adapt them to the study of consensual unions of which numbers are on the increase in developed countries. Furthermore, there is still no efficient method, for either married or unmarried couples, of synthesising the most significant effects of the processes of union building and dissolution on the stock of couples (numbers and demographic characteristics). The author presents a synthetic measurement of this kind and tests it on the two categories of couples in different countries at different times. (METHODOLOGY, CONSENSUAL UNION, DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS)

94.48.03 - Italian - Corrado BONIFAZI

Migratory Balance and Study of Inter-regional Migration: Observations on the Italian Case (Saldi migratori e studio delle migrazioni interregionali: osservazioni sul caso italiano)

Although the use of migratory balances raises some theoretical issues, they are widely used (in absolute or relative values) in the study of spatial mobility. The most usual indicators (compensation or efficiency index, redistribution index) are established using total regional balances which bring all the partial migratory exchanges of each region (with all others) together into one single entry flow and one single exit flow. After studying the links between total net migration and the corresponding total balances, the author attempts to discover specific indicators which would make it possible to analyse in depth interregional mobility through the study of the relationship between total net migration and all the partial migratory balances with the other territorial units. He highlights two indices: the net regional migratory exchange index and the overall net migratory exchange index which, for each region and for the overall area, compare total net migration with the sum of the partial net migration rates. Applied to Italy, these two parameters have proved their efficiency and have brought to light an imbalance in the interregional migratory flows which the classical indicators had not been capable of discerning so well. In less imbalanced migratory exchange situations, these new indicators could prove to be less useful. (ITALY, METHODOLOGY, MIGRATION BALANCE, INTERNAL MIGRATION)

94.48.04 - English - M. Nabil EL-KHORAZATY

Estimation of Fertility-Inhibiting Indices Using Vital Registration Data

Bongaarts' model estimates the respective contributions of various intermediary variables to fertility decline. Based on appropriate data on nuptiality, fertility and family planning, it supplies fertility-inhibiting indices. In the case of ancient populations and some developing countries, the necessary data are either unavailable or are only provided by one-off surveys. On the other hand, Horne, El-Khorazaty and Suchindran (1990) developed a model for estimating women's average age at first and last births and, thus, the length of their reproductive lives. The only data required by this reproduction model are age-specific fertility rates. The present article compares the parameters yielded by the two models in order to make possible an estimation of fertility-inhibiting indices based on reproduction indices, between two surveys or when only all-encompassing civil status data are available. In this way, it is possible to follow up fertility determinants on an annual basis. (FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, METHODOLOGY, DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS)

94.48.05 - English - Mohamed A.A. MOUSSA, Ali M. EL SAYED, Thattaruparambil N. SUGATHAN, Mustafa M. KHOGHALI and Dhirendra VERMA

Analysis of Underlying and Multiple-Cause Mortality Data

Various life table models were used in the analysis of cause-specific mortality in Kuwait from 1984 to 1986: general mortality model, multiple decrement table, the absence of a cause table, the delayed cause-to-effect model and the cause interaction model. These methods are illustrated in the cases of four chronic diseases: high blood pressure, ischaemic heart diseases, cerebrovascular disease and diabetes. These methods quantify the relative weight of each disease in the mortality risk by controlling the actions of the other causes. They also make it possible to estimate the degree of interaction between the main cause and the other causes mentioned on the death certificate by using an expanded variation of the model of mortality due to main cause. (KUWAIT, CAUSES OF DEATH, DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS, METHODOLOGY)

94.48.06 - French - Akam EVINA

Measurement Indicators of Infertility (Les indicateurs de la mesure de l'infécondité)

In the observation of infertility, two series of indicators are drawn up: the first require the observation of women who, over a given period, do not have any live children, while the latter use age-specific fertility rates. The hypotheses and calculation methods which lead to the first series of indicators give a determinist approach; they are rates of infertility (proportions of women who remain childless). This approach enables a relationship to be established which, until now, was lacking, between infertility in general and its two types - primary and secondary. In the second series of indicators, the hypotheses and methods of calculation corespond to a probabilist approach to infertility. The indicators obtained in this way are probabilities of infertility; these values make a much wider use of the data possible, particularly the fertility rates. All the indicators thus defined enable, within a given population, an evaluation of infertility and its primary and secondary subsets, at any time in the marital or reproductive life of a woman. (INFERTILITY, METHODOLOGY)

94.48.07 - English - Dilip C. NATH and Jishnu DATTA

An Alternative to Multiregional Two-Sex Model

The stable population theory for a given region is now a well-established one. In 1975, Rogers developed the analysis of stable, single-sex multiregional populations and, in 1987, Nath expanded this to cover both sexes. The authors of the present article offer a new approach which results in a multiregional model of female births which tends towards a stable status, by taking into consideration the age differences between parents and the sex ratios. (DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS, STABLE POPULATION, REGIONS)

94.48.08 - English - Jawahar R. RELE

Fertility Levels and Trends in South Asia: An Assessment and Prospects

This article presents a study of fertility in five South Asian countries: Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Data quality is quite mediocre and knowledge on fertility is very sparse. The effects of the fertility transition still vary widely from one country to the other: in 1980-1985, the total fertility rate was roughly 7 children per woman in Pakistan as against 3.25 in Sri Lanka. This study details the variations between countries in the manner in which overall fertility and marital fertility are related to the woman's place of residence, education level and working status. While very weak in Pakistan, the link between these socio-economic determinants and legitimate fertility is very noticeable in India and Sri Lanka. Although not a widespread practice in Pakistan, Nepal or Bangladesh, contraception has still made great inroads everywhere which should help to put a brake on fertility. (SOUTHERN ASIA, FERTILITY TRENDS, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)

94.48.09 - English - Pierantonio BELLINI, Gianpiero DALLA ZUANNA and Marco MARSILI

Trends in Geographical Differential Mortality in Italy (1970-90): Tradition and Change

The aim of this article is to study age- and cause-specific differential mortality in the 95 Italian provinces over the last twenty years, separately for males and females. Statistically speaking, the problem lies in synthesising a very numerous batch of data while losing as little information as possible and the authors pay particular attention to this issue. The study is developed in three directions: firstly, the authors examine trends in differences in mortality between provinces by using age-specific standardised rates (directly) for various periods. Then, using a correspondence analysis, they describe any modifications in the age-specific mortality profiles in the provinces over the same periods of time. Finally, they do the same with the cause-specific mortality profiles. They end up with typologies of the provinces, the age groups and the causes of death and, using these, they are able to compare mortality trends between North and South Italy and between Italy and other countries. (ITALY, MORTALITY TRENDS, PROVINCES)

94.48.10 - English - Anne Babette WILS and Douglas A. WOLF

Varieties of Independent Living: Older Women in The Netherlands, 1982

In the years after the war, one part of social policy in the Netherlands was aimed at developing accommodation specially adapted for the elderly. The present article studies the variety of life styles of elderly women in the Netherlands, including accommodation in specialised homes. Elderly women can be divided into various categories of living styles according to their degree of handicap, their family and various socio-demographic factors. The most important variable would appear to be the degree of handicap (reduced autonomy) and the authors show that it would be wise to direct housing resources towards the needy and that this need can be estimated by measuring the physical status of the people in question. (NETHERLANDS, AGED, WOMEN, HOUSING POLICY)

94.48.11 - English - Nitai C. DAS

Vital Rates of India for Intercensal Period with Declining Fertility and Declining Mortality

From 1921 to 1971 in India, mortality declined while fertility remained constant. The 1981 census showed that, from 1971 to 1981, Indian demography became destabilised through a simultaneous decline in mortality and fertility. The present article provides an estimate of the population's mortality rates and fertility rates in 1981 while supposed to be quasi-stable, as per the instructions in the United Nations number IV manual. The author estimates the birth rate at 36 per 1000 and the mortality rate at 14.5 per 1000. Compared to these estimates, it would appear that those provided by the sample vital rates reading for 1980-1982 could be under-estimated by about 7% in the case of the birth rate and 16% for mortality. (INDIA, FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS, MORTALITY MEASUREMENT, QUASI-STABLE POPULATION)

94.48.12 - English - Janardan P. SINGH and Dilip KUMAR

A Technical Note on Index of Migration Differentials

One of the United Nations Manuals on population estimation methods includes a very useful procedure for calculating differential migration indices. More and more use has been made of it in recent years in the study of internal migration. However, the procedure does have some inherent analytical weaknesses since the values of the index obtained show signs of asymetrical positive and negative variations. The authors of this article suggest some modifications which would make the procedure more solid and useful and, in order to better understand the calculation method, a detailed example is given. (DIFFERENTIAL MIGRATION, MIGRATION MEASUREMENT, METHODOLOGY)

1992 - VOLUME 48, NUMBER 3-4

94.48.13 - English - Karen OPPENHEIM MASON

Culture and the Fertility Transition: Thoughts on Theories of Fertility Decline

The author attempts to clarify current trains of thought on the causes of the fertility transition by emphasising the fact that several underlying issues remain to be solved and that the answers could be in disagreement. There is great confusion in the use of terms such as "cultural", "ideal", "distribution" and "fertility control" in recent debates on the determinants of the fertility transition. All the material gathered to support these ways of considering fertility are ambiguous. (FERTILITY TRENDS, THEORY, TERMINOLOGY)

94.48.14 - English - John H. POLLARD and Emil J. VALKOVICS

The Gompertz Distribution and Its Applications

Gompertz' mortality "law", originally put forward in 1825, was for long a common model for adjusting age-specific mortality rates and constructing life tables, before it fell into disuse. Nowadays, it has regained favour, either in its original shape or slightly modified. Some of the functions associated with this "law" have also been used in the adjustment of age-specific fertility rates, but with limited success. Here, the authors have studied the distribution underlying the Gompertz law and developed calculation formulae for its various periods and other characteristic parameters. They have observed that its concentration and asymmetry indices are constants which are independent of the two distribution parameters, which no doubt explains why it was only partly successful when applied to fertility. They also demonstrate that the distribution of the minimum of n independent Gompertz variables of the same parameter c is also a Gompertz variable which has the same parameter c. (MATHEMATICAL DEMOGRAPHY, DEATH RATE, CURVE FITTING)

94.48.15 - English - Saw SWEE-HOCK

Muslim Divorce Trends and Patterns in Singapore

This research attempts to update information on divorce trends in the Muslim population of Singapore since 1921 and on divorce structures since 1980, when detailed statistics started to be produced. Following a brief presentation of the Muslim population, data sources and Muslim customs and laws in divorce matters, the author describes divorce trends in Singapore's Muslim population. Divorce was extremely frequent and increased up until 1958, when there were few, if any, laws governing divorce procedures. At that point, Islamic laws on marital matters were established and divorce rates plunged dramatically amongst Muslims. This decline ran out of steam around 1970 and a slight increase was observed in the 1980s which was not so much due to any relaxation on the part of the tribunals, but more to the fact that Muslim couples were now being exposed to the perturbing effects of rapid economic and social changes. The Muslim community is fully aware of the negative impact of this new situation and has taken steps to guard against it.

94.48.16 - English - Purushottam M. KULKARNI

Impact of Mortality Decline on Marital Duration and Length of Post-Dissolution Life at Different Divorce Levels

The lengthening of the lifespan has an effect on certain stages of the life cycle, particularly after the dissolution of marriage. The author makes a quantitative evaluation of these effects under varying conditions of mortality and divorce rates. In the absence of divorce, the mortality decline has a greater impact on the lengthening of married life than does the duration of widowhood. Under these conditions, life expectancy while widowed decreases in spite of the fact that a larger proportion of women become widows when mortality declines. But it is the opposite case in populations where divorce rates are moderate or high: the mortality decline leads to a relatively smaller increase in the duration of married life and thus, to a correlatively longer duration of life following the dissolution of marriage. (MORTALITY DECLINE, MARRIAGE DURATION, DIVORCE, WIDOWHOOD)

94.48.17 - English - James D. TARVER

Lifetime Migration to the Major Cities of the United States, Asia, and Africa

Approaching migration from the angle of the individuals' place of birth is current practice. The author shows here that migratory movements measured in this way were extremely intense in certain areas of the world. In 1970, two-thirds of the inhabitants of larger American cities were born elsewhere. This proportion reached 60% in sub-Saharan Africa, 48% in Asia and less than one-third in North Africa. But it can be expected that the proportion of city dwellers born there will increase simultaneously in the future with the slowing down of immigration towards the large cities. If this type of study became generalised, it would contribute to showing how urbanisation depends not only on migrations since the time of birth, but also on recent migrations. (CITIES, IMMIGRATION, PLACE OF BIRTH)

94.48.18 - English - Hans-Peter BLOSSFELD and Alessandra DE ROSE

Educational Expansion and Changes in Entry into Marriage and Motherhood. The Experience of Italian Women

Women's improved education levels and the consequent lengthening of the time they spend in the education system should have an impact on the timing of the various stages of their life cycle. This impact will be direct insofar as women are arriving at later ages on the marriage market; and indirect insofar as women who have undertaken studies will have greater expectations with regard to their career and their economic independence. In order to check this hypothesis empirically, the authors have analysed the biographies of a sample of Italian women from various generations. They have tested the adjustment of an exponential multivariate model to the probabilities of getting married and having a first child for each age from 16 upwards. The results only give partial confirmation of the hypothesis. Any increase in educational level results in a slight delay in marriage. But, once the marital status has been controlled for, the age at first birth is practically independent of the educational level. (ITALY, LIFE CYCLE, LEVELS OF EDUCATION, EDUCATION OF WOMEN)

94.48.19 - English - Jacques SILBER

Inequality in Mortality: Measuring the Contributions of Various Causes of Death

Following on to a previous work in which the inequality of incomes by population sub-group had been dissected, this article suggests a method of measuring the contribution of varying ages at time of death in three ways: the contribution of age at death variability inherent to each cause of death; the contribution of average age at death variability by cause; and a term of interaction which measures the degree of overlap of age at death distributions for the various causes. The author supplies an illustration using Italian data for the period 1881-1964. (AGE AT DEATH, CAUSES OF DEATH)

94.48.20 - English - Dhinesh PANICKER

Economic Development and Fertility: An Empirical Analysis Using Cross-National Data

It was believed, until the early 50s, that the study and analysis of fertility did not lie within the remit of economic theory. But with economics taking into consideration the non-market behaviours of households and human capital, it became possible to make an economic analysis of fertility. Various theories on the relationship between economic development and fertility have been put forward and they have often been tested with multiple regression techniques and international regional data. The present article studies the statistical hypotheses underlying the application of these models. (ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, FERTILITY, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, MODELS)

94.48.21 - English - Abu J. M. SUFIAN

Determinants of Contraceptive Knowledge and Family Planning Services in Bangladesh

The 1983 Survey on Contraceptive Use in Bangladesh provided data making it possible to study information on contraception (measured by the number of modern methods about which married women aged under 50 had good knowledge) and the use of family planning services (measured by the number of times that these women had received a visit from a family planning officer during the six months preceding the survey). Educated women had greater knowledge of contraception than illiterates and the result was the same for urban, contracepting, salaried women or those who owned arable land. The study also shows that rural women, those who have greater general knowledge of contraception or those who knew of a larger number of methods and those who were not currently using a contraceptive method were more likely to have been visited by a family planning agent. The author draws the political conclusions from these observations. (BANGLADESH, KNOWLEDGE OF CONTRACEPTIVES, FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMMES)

94.48.22 - English - John A. BALLWEG and Imelda G. PAGTOLUN-AN

Determinants of Infant and Child Mortality: A Philippine Study

Using both bivariate and multivariate techniques, the present study examines the impact of behavioural, biological, health and socio-economic determinants on infant and child mortality in Northern Mindanao in the Philippines. The main factors behind infant and child mortality are the level of parents' implication and health factors. As is to be expected, the greater the parents' investment in looking after their child, the greater the child's chances of surviving until at least the age of five, no matter the impact of the other determinants. This study highlights the fact that, in order to survive, children require their parents' affection, care, time and resources. Any lack of investment on the part of the parents results in their children's lives being endangered. (PHILIPPINES, INFANT MORTALITY, YOUTH MORTALITY, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS, PARENTS)

94.48.23 - English - T.R. BALAKRISHNAN and Zheng WU

Regional Pattern of Nuptiality and Fertility in Canada: 1921-1986

Trends in the regional nuptiality and fertility patterns in Canada between 1921 and 1986 are studied here using the well-known Coale indices Im, Ig, Ih and If. The general decline in fertility was mainly due to the concurrent decline in marital fertility and, to a lesser degree, to the decline in the proportion of married women. Although on the increase, the number of illegitimate births did not compensate for the sharp decline in marital fertility. Regional variations in nuptiality and fertility decreased which confirmed the hypothesis that industrialization and economic development cancel out the regional variations in human behavioural patterns. (CANADA, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY, NUPTIALITY, FERTILITY)

94.48.24 - English - Christiana E. E. OKOJIE

Women's Status and Fertility in Bendel State of Nigeria

The author presents empirical data on the socio-economic differentials of fertility according to a 1985 survey of 15 rural and urban communities in Bendel State in Nigeria. She situates her study in the framework of the micro-economic theory of household behavioural patterns and makes a distinction between the public and the private status of women. Amongst the most important determinants of fertility differentials are the woman's educational level which tends to reduce her completed family size and her husband's educational level which tends to have the opposite effect. The other major determinants are age, ethnic group, age difference between spouses and type of marriage. The major share of fertility variability can be explained by economic factors (women's public status). (NIGERIA, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, WOMEN'S STATUS)

1993 - VOLUME 49, NUMBER 1-2

94.48.25 - English - G. CASELLI, L. CERBARA and G. LETI

The Geography of Adult Mortality: Results from the Fuzzy Clumping Method

Recent research into cause-specific mortality in Italy has established a regional typology of the phenomenon using multivariate classification techniques which produce homogeneous geographical groups with well-defined borders. The "fuzzy clumping" method used here consits in grouping the provinces in such a way that each can belong to several groups with varying coefficients of belonging. In this way, for example, the authors can specify regions containing certain provinces which, although they may have varying general mortality structures, are similar with regard to their cancer or ischemic heart disease mortality patterns. This technique makes it possible to highlight the advantages of certain areas with regard to specific types of mortality and also allows for the identification of those provinces where the mortality, although generally typical of the South, is in some ways analogous to that of the industrial North. This can perhaps be explained by the existence in both the South and the North of major industries which are dangerous for the health of their inhabitants. (ITALY, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, PROVINCES, CAUSES OF DEATH, METHODOLOGY)

94.48.26 - English - Laurence GRUMMER-STRAWN and James TRUSSELL

Computing the Mean Duration of Breastfeeding from Current-Status Data

The authors consider the two methods which permit an estimation of the mean duration of breastfeeding, using data on current status of the child in this respect. They show that these estimates are often biased by the fact that they often do not take into account the hypothesis of stationarity of births which they presuppose. Using the data of 40 WFS and 22 DHS, they also show that the ages of the children as declared at the time of the survey are systematically incorrect in such a way that adding up the proportions of children currently being breasfted according to age leads to an under-estimation of the mean duration of breastfeeding. This is a problem which cannot be solved. Finally, the authors suggest and test an estimator which would combine prevalence/incidence and the age-specific proportion of children currently breastfed when the only data available are from a sample of last-born. (BREAST FEEDING, DURATION OF LACTATION, BIAS, METHODOLOGY)

94.48.27 - Italian - Pietro MANFREDI

The Influence of Logistical Terms in the Two-sex Model with a "Mean Harmonic" Fertility Function (Problemi di ingombro nel modello interattivo con legge di formazione delle coppie a "media armonica")

The effects of the presence of logistical terms in the random two-sex matching model with a "mean harmonic" fertility function are studied in this article. The author demonstrates the existence, in perfectly natural conditions, of a totally stable and unique significant point of equilibrium. This equilibrium is the end result of an adjustment process which, after an initial period where the sex composition can be seen to stabilise, proves to have the same characteristics as Verhulst's classical, logistical one-sex process. (MATHEMATICAL DEMOGRAPHY, DYNAMIC MODELS, FERTILTY, SEX DISTRIBUTION)

94.48.28 - English - Janos IZSAK

Comparative Analysis of Death Cause Diversity Curves in Various Countries

Variability indices are adequate measurements of the concentration of cause of death diagnoses. The author establishes graphical representations of the variability of causes of death by age for European countries and Japan and notes the similarities between all of these curves. But it is very obvious that the curves based on Japanese mortality statistics differ tremendously from the others. The author also comments on the sex-specific differences. (EUROPE, JAPAN, MORTALITY, CAUSES OF DEATH, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

94.48.29 - English - Teresa CASTRO MARTIN

Changing Nuptiality Patterns in Contemporary Spain

Nuptiality has undergone considerable change in Spain during the 1980s. The author describes recent trends in marriage and explores some of the socio-economic determinants which have a bearing on the timing of marriage. She then applies the analysis of biographical data to the life histories gathered in 1985 by the Spanish National Fertility Survey. She uses discreet variable risk models in order to distinguish trends in the dynamics of nuptiality over all age groups. There would appear to be a trend towards delaying marriage in Spain over the last ten years, but with no simultaneous increase in the number of people living together without being married. The delayed marriage model is particularly prevalent amongst women living in cities and women with the highest levels of education. (SPAIN, NUPTIALITY, TRENDS, AGE AT MARRIAGE)

94.48.30 - English - William L. MARR and Douglas McCREADY

Aging of the Population and Spending Patterns in Canada: 1984 and 1986

Using data from the Canadian surveys of 1984 and 1986 on household expenditure, the authors study consumption models for households where the head is less than 60 years old, aged 60 to 74 and 75 years or older. Compared to the households with a young head, those in the intermediate category spend proportionally more on food and housing and less on clothes, work on the house, furnishing and leisure pursuits. These differentials increase even more when compared with the oldest category. In this study, the authors have controlled for various socio-economic determinants. At the same time as they controlled for all other factors except age in a regression analysis, they noted practically the same types of expenditure allocation dependent on the household head's age. Some specific consumption models are clearly related to the household head's age. (CANADA, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, AGED, FAMILY CONSUMPTION, AGE GROUPS, HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD)

94.48.31 - English - Margaret MICHALOWSKI

The Elderly and International Migration in Canada: 1971-1986

Immigration of the elderly in Canada is studied here from a two-fold point of view: an analysis of immigrants' characteristics and of their contribution to the Canadian population's ageing. Net immigration of people aged 60 or over has been split up by sex, age and country of origin. Emigration of the elderly is studied in parallel. The author shows how the migration patterns of the elderly differ significantly from those of overall migration. Elderly immigrants participate to a greater extent than younger people in the return migration process. Consequently, any increase in the proportion of elderly immigrants in the overall immigrant population of foreign origin who settle in Canada does not necessarily result in an acceleration of the ageing of the Canadian population. A greater tendency to "re-migrate" has also been noted for elderly women as compared to elderly men, as well as more rapid growth amongst groups of immigrants originally from Africa, Asia and Latin America than those born elsewhere. At the same time, immigrants from the Third World also have a marked tendency to leave Canada. (CANADA, AGED, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, DIFFERENTIAL MIGRATION)

94.48.32 - English - Reiner Hans DINKEL and Ina MILENOVIC

Male and Female Fertility: A Comparison of Age-Specific and Cohort Fertility of Both Sexes in Germany

Using survey data, the authors compare the fertility of men and women in German generations born in the 20th century. Male fertility after the age of 40 which used to be high has declined rapidly to the same level as the low female rates. Completed family size for both males and females, in most of the generations supposed to have terminated their reproductive life, are not identical. Thanks to a favourable situation on the marriage market (due to the decline in their numbers caused by the war), men of all generations from 1902 to 1930 had more children than their female partners. For the more recent generations, the situation was reversed for the marriage market is now much more favourable towards women. (GERMANY, FERTILITY, SEX DIFFERENTIALS, GENERATION EFFECT)

94.48.33 - English - Jan VAN REEK

Mortality by Social Class Among Males in the Netherlands Since the 19th Century

In the Netherlands from 1896 to 1903, male mortality was higher in the lower social classes than the others. This imbalance had disappeared by 1947-1952, but socio-economic mortality differentials had reappeared by 1959-1961 and 1972-1981. (NETHERLANDS, MALE MORTALITY, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, SOCIAL CLASSES, HISTORY)

94.48.34 - English - C.M. SUCHINDRAN, R. RAMAKUMAR and K. SATHI DEVI

Family Size, Sex Composition of Children and Contraceptive Use: A Case Study of Kerala

The authors, using a multiplicative model, have constructed indices which measure the effect of parents' preference for a given sex when they adopt contraception. These indices avoid some of the arbitrary measurements previously proposed. The model has been generalised in order to calculate the simultaneous effects of numbers of boys and girls and the total number of children on contraceptive use. The authors apply it to data from the fertility survey undertaken in Kerala in 1980 and observe that the number of children has a definite impact on the adoption of a contraceptive method. When family size is controlled for, it can be noted, inter alia, that contraceptive use is significant in large families containing only girls. (INDIA, FAMILY SIZE, SEX PREFERENCE, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE)

94.48.35 - English - Eugene K. CAMPBELL

Family Size Preferences of Men in the Western Area of Sierra Leone. Methods and Determinants

Studies on family size are generally centred around women and yet, in developing countries, men play a major role in decision-making with regard to family size. It would therefore be appropriate to consider male preferences on family size. The disagreement usually observed between men and women on this subject is often due to the way in which data are collected (single question). In the present study, a multiple question approach has been used in order to make a clear distinction between desired family size and ideal family size and it was observed that the former is lower than the latter. The determinants of desired family size are dominated by the rapid economic decline which is currently rife in the country. (SIERRA LEONE, DESIRED FAMILY SIZE, IDEAL FAMILY SIZE, MEN)

94.48.36 - English - Adekunbi Kehinde OMIDEY

The Emergence of the Nuclear Family: Its Effect on Women's Roles and Fertility Change in Nigeria

The author has used data from Nigeria to verify that the slide from the extended family type towards the nuclear family can be used as an indicator of fertility trends. This process results from the modernisation process, i.e., the industrialisation and urbanisation which have slowly loosened the parental ties (in the broadest sense) and intensified parents' responsibilities towards the education and welfare of their own children and encouraged women to participate in economic activities. The author uses data collected from 2,176 married Yoruba women in order to study the effects of family nuclearisation on fertility in rural and in urban areas. The nuclearisation indicators used are household income, husband's education level and wife's education level. The analysis shows that the effect under study is stronger in rural areas than in urban ones. (NIGERIA, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, NUCLEAR FAMILY, MODERNIZATION)

1993 - VOLUME 49, NUMBER 3-4

94.48.37 - English - Zeng YI, James VAUPEL and Wang ZHENGLIAN

Marriage and Fertility in China: 1950-1989

The article presents an analysis of first marriages and fertility in China by year of age and timing up to 1989, using decrement tables and graphical representations. During the 1970s, age at first marriage increased by roughly four years while fertility declined rapidly. In relation to given socio-economic determinants, ages at marriage and at childbirth declined during the 1980s. Fertility rates increased slightly towards the end of that decade after reaching their minimum level in 1984. Overall, marriage and reproduction remain widespread and a quite early occurrence in China. (CHINA, AGE AGE MARRIAGE, FIRST MARRIAGE, FERTILITY TRENDS)

94.48.38 - English - Robert WELLER, David SLY, A. SUKAMDI and Rindang EKAWATI

Number and Timing Failure Among Births in Indonesia

The 1987 Indonesian DHS has been used here in order to verify the significance of unwanted births and to examine the degree to which replies to retrospective questions on the wanted or unwanted nature of births is in agreement with other indicators of family size planning failure. In the five years preceding the survey, 6.8% of live births were considered unwanted while 21% would have been wanted at a different time. Contraceptive practice was more common amongst the mothers of an unwanted child than amongst the mothers who would have wished to have their baby at another time. The authors study the determinants associated respectively with unwanted pregnancies and with those which were badly timed. (INDONESIA, UNWANTED PREGNANCY, CONTRACEPTION FAILURES)

94.48.39 - English - K.L. KOHLI and M.H. AL-OMAIM

Fertility in Kuwait: 1970-1985

The authors study trends in the level and characteristics of fertility of the Kuwaiti population, both native- and foreign-born, from 1970 to 1985, and examine the determinants of this trend. The data sources used are civil registration statistics (complete for births since 1965) and the 1975, 1980 and 1985 censuses. During this 15-year period, the fertility of Kuwaiti women has declined only slightly, but that of immigrant women has dropped dramatically: in 1985, the total fertility rates for the two groups were 6.5 and 3.0 children per woman respectively. Kuwaiti women continue to marry young and to very rarely use contraceptive methods, whereas these two determinants have developed considerably amongst immigrant women. In both Kuwait and other rich Islamic countries, cultural and religious determinants have a considerable influence on nuptiality and fertility, while socio-economic factors related to modernisation are more characteristic of the precursor groups on the way to transition. (KUWAIT, FERTILITY TRENDS, INDIGENOUS POPULATION, IMMIGRANTS)

94.48.40 - French - Ali KOUAOUCI

Fertility as a Result of Length of Exposure. Methodology and Application to Sudan, Syria and Tunisia (La fécondité comme résultat de durées d'exposition. Méthodologie and application au Soudan, à la Syrie and à la Tunisie)

The model proposed here describes fertility as a result of lengths of exposure. This exposure is influenced by marital customs, by the length of the reproductive period and spacing variables. The model provides satisfactory estimates of the total fertility rate (compared to the published values). Syria has the highest fertility because of its longer reproductive period (some 20 years), a short inter-birth interval (6 months less on average than in the Sudan and 9 months less than in Tunisia) and stable marriages. The three countries are also compared in relation to the spacing variables: breastfeeding, contraception, sterilisation and impaired fertility. (SUDAN, TUNISIA, SYRIA, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS, MODELS)

94.48.41 - English - Orieji CHIMERE-DAN

Maternal Education and Marital Fertility in Four African Countries

The author studies two types of gap in our current knowledge on the relationship between mother's education level and marital fertility in Africa South of the Sahara. In the case of the four countries studied, the data do not prove that this relationship is always negative at the two extremes of the education level scales. Furthermore, mother's education does not influence the main intermediary variables of marital fertility in the same way throughout the various African countries. These two observations imply that further research is required on the active mechanisms of mother's education on marital fertility in Africa South of the Sahara. (AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, LEGITIMATE FERTILITY, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, LEVELS OF EDUCATION)

94.48.42 - English - Donald J. ADAMCHAK and Michael T. MBIZVO

Structural and Attitudinal Change: Fertility Decline in Zimbabwe

This research deals with the effect on average family size in Zimbabwe of husband and wife's education levels, the respective status of each sex and place of residence. The data were drawn from the 1988 Survey on Male Fertility and were divided into two groups according to the wife's age (15-29 years old and 30 to 49). The place of residence (rural, semi-urban, densely urban) determines whether there will be significant differences for given variables. The wife's education level is clearly negatively related to family size for the younger women while, for the older women, the negative determinants are residence in a semi-urban area, equality between sexes and the higher education level of the husband. (ZIMBABWE, FERTILITY TRENDS)

94.48.43 - Italian - Pia GRASSIVARO GALLO and Alessandra FLORIO

The Fertility of Algiers' Women. Biodemographical and Psychosocial Aspects (La fecondità della donna ad Algeri. Aspetti biodemografici e psicosociali)

In 1988, the nuptiality and fertility of 239 women in the obstetrical and gynaecological department of Mustafa Hospital in Algiers were studied. Age at marriage is increasing slightly (20.8 years), but marriage remains widespread and, in the majority, endogamous. Polygamy is less usual than in other Islamic countries, although repudiation is common practice. The average number of live births per woman (6.1) has declined since the survey held in 1969-1971 (7.4). The psychosocial data reveal that women continue to hold highly pro-natalist opinions which is in direct contrast with their wish to have less children. Like most of the Arabo-Muslim countries, Algeria is moving towards the second stage of its demographic transition, but Algerian women do not appear to be quite ready to accept this development. (ALGERIA, FERTILITY TRENDS, NUPTIALITY)

94.48.44 - English - Humphrey E. LAMUR

Characteristics of Caribbean-Born Women Having Abortions in an Amsterdam Clinic

Several works have shown that, in the Netherlands, the frequency of abortions amongst Caribbean women is very high: four to five times higher than Dutch women in the early 1990s. The study of a group of 230 Caribbean patients in an Amsterdam clinic enables the author to specify that they are mainly single, young women, with a generally low level of education and who have very few children. Their relationships with their partners are highly unstable, with periods of cohabitation and solitude alternating frequently. (NETHERLANDS, CARRIBEAN, ABORTION)

94.48.45 - English - William J. SEROW and David F. SLY

Population Policies in Industrialized Nations: Reactive or Proactive?

The authors study trends in policies on demographic behaviour in industrialized nations in the light of the trends in these behavioural patterns in the past and their projected paths for the next 35 years according to the average variant in the 1988 United Nations forecasts. Past and future population trends and their components are firstly summarised for the four large areas of the industrialized countries. Then, the authors study the way in which the demographic parameters are perceived and trends in these perceptions, according to the UN, by linking them with population policies and recent trends in the latter. Finally, they estimate the pertinence of policies and their trends from the point of view of these perceptions and prolong these reflections to take account of the future. (DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, POPULATION POLICY, TRENDS, PROJECTIONS)

94.48.46 - English - Prithwis DAS GUPTA

Recomputation of Age-Adjusted Death Rates and Age-Adjusted Birth Rates for the U.S., 1940-1990

Many authors have questioned whether the National Center for Health Statistics should continue to use the 1940 age- and sex-structures of the American population in the calculation of standardized birth and death rates, or if the Center should use a more recent population structure. The author of the present article shows that continuing to standardise with only one reference population is leading to incoherent results. The standardization technique which he suggests produces coherent results and closes the debate on the choice of reference population. He applies his technique to American data in order to recompute standardized birth and mortality rates from 1940 to 1990. (UNITED STATES, STANDARDIZED RATE, METHODOLOGY)

94.48.47 - Italian - Piero GIORGI

A Re-examination of Birth Order-Specific Period Fertility in Italy for 1950-1990, Dependent on the Parity Structure (Una rilettura della fecondità del momento per ordine di nascita in Italia nel periodo 1950-1990 considerando la struttura per parità)

Any analysis of birth order-specific period fertility in Italy requires the use of age- and parity-specific growth probabilities. The resultant synthetic fertility rates are compared to those which have usually been calculated using the age-specific fertility rates. The author solves the problem of data on parity by developing a technique which makes it possible to estimate the growth probabilities using age-specific fertility rates. Bias is limited and quite constant in order not to invalidate the overall results. The author emphasizes the interest of combining the two approaches and details the advantages of the indices thus derived from the growth probabilities. (FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS, METHODOLOGY, PARITY PROGRESSION RATIO)

1994 - VOLUME 50, NUMBER 1-2

This special issue contains and classifies a bibliography of the 709 articles published by Genus from volumes 1 to 49, including different indexes: chronological, topic, author and geographic.

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