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France (Paris) 46

POPULATION

JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1994 - 49TH YEAR, NUMBER 1

94.46.01 - French - Daniel COURGEAU, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)

From the Group to the Individual. What Can Be Learned from Migratory Behaviour (Du groupe à l'individu: l'exemple des comportements migratoires) (p. 7-26)

The hypotheses, objectives, formulations and characteristics which social scientists use in their research differ greatly, depending on whether they are studying group or individual behavior. At the aggregate level, they tend to use the overall characteristics of the group to figure out its behavior. Conversely, at the individual level, they focus on various elements of each person's biography. This article attempts to link the results obtained at these two levels of aggregation both from a theoretical and a practical point of view. It uses data from a biographical survey which have been looked at both from the individual and the aggregate points of view, to study migration behaviour. (METHODOLOGY, EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS, MIGRATION)

94.46.02 - French - Pierre-Marie BRUNETTI, Alfredo MORABIA, Aldo CAMPANA, Joachim MARCUS-STEIFF

Biometrical Study of Reproduction Conditions in the General Population. Method and Initial Results of Surveys Carried Out in Chambery-Grenoble and Martigny (Etude biométrique du fonctionnement reproductif dans la population générale. Méthode et premiers résultats) (p. 27-60)

An in-depth medical survey involving 300 women having completed their 29th year was carried out to derive a statistical description of sexual and reproductive activity, its psycho-social and physiological context and its results. All major reproductive events were dated, including a parameter usually left out of epidemiological studies, namely, exposure to pregnancy. One quarter of the women in the total sample are childless at age 29. 60% of these women are so voluntarily by resorting to continuous contraception, 17% as a result of an abortion, 12% for lack of a partner and 11% on account of a physiological impossibility. Women in the 29 year-old group showed a 2.8% primary infertility rate, comparable to the results reported by other authors. The average time required to conceive (TRC) is 4.4 months for all conceptions and 3.2 months for those conceptions that occur within a 12-month period. 5% of all conceptions occur after the subjects have spent 12 months trying to conceive. There are 5 times as many conception delays lasting over 12 months in first-time-ever conceptions than in subsequent ones. 10% of the 29-year old women waited over one year at least once before they conceived. (BIOMETRICS, CONCEPTION DELAY, INFERTILITY)

94.46.03 - French - Eva LELIEVRE, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)

Couple Formation and Reproduction Outside Marriage in Great Britain. Differences and Similarities with the French Situation (Formation des couples et fécondité hors mariage en Grande-Bretagne. divergences et similitudes avec la situation française) (p. 61-90)

A new analysis of retrospective longitudinal data is used to study recent changes in family formation, and more specifically, the evolution of extra-marital births and cohabitation in Great Britain, with frequent references to comparable French data. Although there has recently been some convergence, French and British societies retain marked cultural and historico-political specificities, so that similarities may in effect reflect distinct phenomena. For instance, a rise in the number of births outside marriage, which has happened in both countries, is totally different in nature: while only 3% involve women under 20 years of age in France, the figure in Great Britain is 22%. This apparent similarity, which disappears when the detailed figures are looked at, also applies to extra-marital cohabitation (which is less common in Great Britain) and to fertility, where similar period indices reflect very different trends in different age groups. These results illustrate differences in the evolution of European societies, and call for greater caution in constructing general models. This study also leads one to question the universality of the "progressive" nature of the new behaviours. (UNITED KINGDOM, FRANCE, ILLEGITIMATE FERTILITY, COHABITATION, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

94.46.04 - French - Françoise BARTIAUX, Université Catholique de Louvain, 1 Place Montesquieu, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

The Declining Birth Rate and the Marriage Market: Italy 1930-1950 (Dénatalité et marché matrimonial. Le cas de l'Italie en 1930-1950) (p. 91-118)

The decline in the birth rate recorded in Italy between 1916 and 1919 began to affect the marriage market as early as the mid-30s. This imbalance was resolved through major changes in the relative ages of the spouses, which continue to be apparent in a couple analysis based on individual data drawn from the Census of 1981. The role of mortality and of widowhood - which lead to a selection of couples surviving to 1981 - is assessed. Their impact turns out to be minimal. The article concludes with a discussion of the influence of circumstances that prevailed at the time these marriages took place (before, during and after the Second World War). (ITALY, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, FERTILITY DECLINE, NUPTIALITY)

94.46.05 - French - H. Martin LAOUROU, Université Catholique de Louvain, 1 Place Montesquieu, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

Estimated Death Rate in Benin, Based on a Multi-stage Survey: 1981-1983 (Estimation de la mortalité au Bénin à partir d'une enquête à passages répétés) (p. 119-144)

Information obtained through multi-stage surveys involving repeated visits is more reliable than that derived from a single visit, but these surveys may reach an impasse for several reasons, especially when the methods of analysis used in processing data are either inappropriate or inadequate. We developed a methodological approach which ensures proper coverage of deaths recorded between visits, except in Cotonou where data are less reliable because of household mobility. But in the case of Benin, we show that, except in Cotonou, migration did not affect the reliability of survey results. The results were therefore used to establish the first life tables for Benin (excluding Cotonou) constructed from raw data. These tables differ significantly from model life tables, but appear to reflect the level and structure of mortality in Benin. (BENIN, LIFE TABLES, QUALITY OF DATA)

94.46.06 - French - Alain BIDEAU, Guy BRUNET, Evelyne HEYER, Henri PLAUCHU

Analyzing Population Structure through the Study of Consanguinity. The Valserine Valley from the 18th Century to the Present (La consanguinité, révélateur de la structure de la population. L'exemple de la vallée de la Valserine du XVIIIe siècle à nos jours) (p. 145-160)

The consanguineous marriage rate is usually estimated by demographer-historians from dispensation declarations in marriage certificates. A comparison of such declarations with other sources, such as diocesan registers and genealogies, shows that these measures are unreliable. Analysing genealogies of five villages in the Valserine valley from the end of the 17th century to the present makes it possible to establish the average consanguinity ratio within the population. Genealogies do, futhermore, take into account instances of more remote consanguinity (beyond the fourth generation). They demonstrate the existence of sub-populations in which spouse selection and mobility are different. Consanguinity is a trait peculiar to a limited group of families who have lived in these villages over the three centuries studied. (FRANCE, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, CONSANGUINEOUS MARRIAGE)

MARCH/APRIL 1994 - 49TH YEAR, NUMBER 2

94.46.07 - French - Alfred DITTGEN, IDUP, Université de Paris I, Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris (France)

Forms of Marriage Ceremony in Europe. Civil and Religious Ceremonies. An Overview and Account of Developments (La forme du mariage en Europe: cérémonie civile, cérémonie religieuse. Panorama et évolution) (p. 339-368)

The decreasing number of marriages in Europe during the last quarter-century has been matched by a decline in the proportion of marriages that involve a religious ceremony. In Central Europe, where only civil marriages are recognized by the law, the percentage of couples who go from the registrar's office to church has continued to decline, at least in the West, since in some parts of Central Europe there has been a strong resurgence of religious weddings. In Southern Europe, the proportion of these weddings, which are legally recognized, began to decline much later and seems to have stabilized. In Northern Europe, where both religious and civil ceremonies are also recognized, the percentage of weddings which involve a religious ceremony has been rising for some years, especially in Scandinavia. These different trends illustrate that religious and civil marriage ceremonies have different implications and significance in different social, political, religious and institutional environments. (EUROPE, CIVIL MARRIAGE, RELIGIOUS, MARRIAGE)

94.46.08 - French - Antonella PINNELLI, Annunziata NOBILE, Department of Demography, University La Sapienza, Rome (Italy), Andis LAPINCH, Department of Sociology, University of Lettonie (Latvia)

Trends and Factors in Infant Mortality in Developed Countries and the Republics of the Former Soviet Union (La mortalité infantile dans les pays développés et les Républiques de l'ancienne Union soviétique) (p. 369-394)

Following the successful conquest of infectious diseases, lower infant mortality in developed countries is now mainly due to improved conditions in childbirth and to a lower death rate for children at risk. Despite greater homogeneity, large differences between different countries continue. Eastern Europe and the former USSR are much less advanced than the West, and in the Republics of the former USSR progress during the 1980s was slow and large disparities remain. A factor analysis shows strong correlation between infant mortality and different aspects of economic and health-related development and the status of women. These indices can be used as a measure of progress in the Republics of the former Soviet Union, in which socioeconomic conditions are much less favourable than in the West. (WESTERN EUROPE, EASTERN EUROPE, COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDANT STATES, INFANT MORTALITY)

94.46.09 - French - Seppo KOSKINEN and Tuija MARTELIN, University of Helsinki, 00014 Helsinki (Finland)

Why Is Differential Mortality among Women Lower than among Men? An Analysis of Finnish Data (Pourquoi les femmes sont-elles moins inégales que les hommes devant la mort? Une analyse des données finlandaises) (p. 395-414)

Socio-economic differentials in mortality are greater for women than for men. We investigate the extent to which this assertion depends on (1) the type of indices used to measure socioeconomic status; (2) other socio-demographic variables that hide inequalities among women, whilst stressing those for men; and (3) differences in the structure of cause specific mortality. The analysis is based on a comparison of death certificates for the period 1981-1985 and individual census schedules drawn from the Census of Finland of 1980. Whatever index of socioeconomic indicator is used (educational level, occupational group, size of household, or equipment found in individual households), inequalities in mortality are significantly smaller for women than for men. However, this observation only holds true for the married. For most causes of death, differential mortality is the same for both sexes. The extent of socioeconomic differentials in men's mortality results, therefore, from the distribution of deaths by cause. (FINLAND, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, SEX DIFFERENTIALS, SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIFFERENTIALS)

94.46.10 - French - Pierre LEFEBVRE, Liliane BROUILLETTE, Claude FELTEAU, Université du Québec, Montréal, QC (Canada)

The Effects of Taxes and Family Allowances on Fertility and Work Behavior of Women in Canada: Results from a Discrete Choice Model (Les effets des impôts et des allocations familiales sur les comportements de fécondité et de travail des Canadiennes: résultats d'un modèle de choix discrets) (p. 415-456)

We use a nested polychotomous discrete choice model to estimate the responsiveness of the behaviour of "married" women (couples) in Canada to variations in the expected flow of revenue resulting from changes in the parameters of the personal income tax and in the level of public monetary transfers conditional on the number of children. We suppose that married women or living under common law, are faced with three types of sequential decisions: the fertility decision, the decision relative to the number of children to have and the decision concerning labour force participation. The hierarchical process of decision defines eight situations with an option value. The model is estimated with micro-data from 9 repeated cross-sections for the years 1975 to 1987 with a full information maximum likelihood method. Our estimation of female wage equations conditional on the number of children takes into account the problem of sample selectivity. Finally this empirical setting is used to simulate the effects of changes made to the fiscal exemptions in favor of families with dependent children and to family allowances on fertility, women's labour force participation and the importance of net spending costs for the two levels of government. (CANADA, FERTILITY, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, TAXATION, FAMILY ALLOWANCES)

94.46.11 - French - Laure CHANTREL, Centre d'Etudes des Relations Internationales et Européennes, Université Paul Valéry, Montpellier III (France)

Depopulation and Fiscal Reforms in France during the 16th and 17th Centuries (Dépopulation et réforme de la fiscalité en France aux XVIe-XVIIe siècles) (p. 457-480)

Economic thought during the 17th century regarded a large population as being both essential for a State which adopted a mercantilist fiscal policy, and at the same time as a weapon to be used against that same policy. The depopulation of France was regarded as sufficient proof for the assertion that the fiscal system needed to be changed, since it acted as an impediment to social and economic welfare. The problem of overall depopulation was compounded by migration between town and countryside. Royal officials and merchants alike agreed that the burden of taxation needed to be shifted from the countryside to the towns in order to promote agricultural production and stimulate consumption, which were regarded as the bases of economic growth. Some of the analyses were close to myths, but at other times they are full of valuable information on the way in which pre-capitalist economies functioned. (FRANCE, HISTORY, TAXATION, DEPOPULATION, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY)

MAY-JUNE 1994 - NUMBER 3

94.46.12 - French - Ermelinda MEKSI, Université de Tirana, Tirana (Albania), and Gianpiero DALLA ZUANNA, Universita di Roma "La Sapienza", Rome (Italy)

Mortality in Albania, 1950-1990 (La mortalité générale en Albanie (1950-1990)) (p. 607-636)

Statistics, some of which have not previously been published, make it possible to trace the development of the death rate in Albania between 1950 and 1990. The number of deaths must first, however, be ajusted for omissions. In spite of its inaccuracies, the Census provides an acceptable denominator for the calculation of age-specific death rates. Tables were constructed for 1950, 1960, 1969, 1979, and 1989. In 1989, life expectancy at birth amounted to 68 years for males and 74 years for females, a level comparable to that achieved in Italy about 1970, but the rate of progress towards these levels was faster in Albania. Significant progress was achieved during the 1950s and 1970s, but there was a marked slowdown during the 1960s and 1980s, and excess mortality of women during the post World War II period gave way to an overall excess mortality of men, which was concentrated among those aged around 20 and around 60. Although life expectancy at birth in Albania is similar to that found in other European countries, the age pattern of mortality is different, being higher for children and lower for adults. These developments are related to Albania's political history; its alliance with the Soviet Union from 1946 to 1961, with the People's Republic of China from 1962 to 1978, followed by autarchic isolation between 1978 and 1990. In each of these periods, the country's socioeconomic structure, which remains backward, based on agriculture and remaining traditional, had a perceptible influence. (ALBANIA, MORTALITY TRENDS, LIFE TABLES)

94.46.13 - French - Thierry BLOSS, Alain FRICKEY, Michel NOVI

Ways of Entering Adult Life and Decisions of Married Women (Modes d'entrée dans la vie adulte et trajectoires sociales des femmes mariées) (p. 637-656)

Demographers and sociologists have increasingly studied the relationship between events in the life course and women's work. In this paper, the authors study the extent to which different ways of entering adult life, as shown by departure from the parental home, affect the course of women's careers. Leaving home because of marriage suggests a life course in which a woman's economic activities will have to be fitted into family life and the husband's career. By contrast, leaving home for vocational training or for employment tends to give women greater independence in future relations between themselves and their partners. By using answers to questionnaires in a retrospective survey, the authors show that some aspects of life style, and particularly the method of transition to adult status, do have specific effects on women's decisions about their occupations, relations with their family, and on migrating. This has led the authors to assess the weight of some determinants, such as social background, in shaping the life course. (LIFE CYCLE, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS)

94.46.14 - French - Thierry EGGERICKX and Dominique TABUTIN, Institut de Démographie, Université Catholique de Louvain, 1, Place Montesquieu, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

Higher Mortality Rates among Belgian Girls in 1890. A Regional Approach (La surmortalité des filles en Belgique vers 1890: une approche régionale) (p. 657-684)

During the 19th century, mortality of women between the ages of 2 and 30 years exceeded that of men, as it did in other European countries. This paper is designed to show the variations that occurred in mortality rates of 41 Belgian communes around 1890, taking account of their size and dominant type of production (mining, textiles, farming, and urban tertiary occupations). Excess mortality of females between the ages of one and five years was recorded only in rural areas, whereas the excess was general between the ages of 5 and 20 years. However, the difference between the mortality of the sexes was smaller in an industrial and urban environment, where the mortality of males was particularly high. In the Walloon part of the country, housing and women's economic activity are closely linked with the excess mortality of girls. The link with mother's education is less important. By contrast, none of these differences can be observed in Flanders. It is clear that the mortality rates of girls are higher than those of boys, irrespective of their environment, though variations exist which depend on the cultural background, the system of production, and the resulting social relations between the sexes. (BELGIUM, HISTORY, EXCESS MORTALITY, SEX DIFFERENTIALS, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY)

94.46.15 - French - Mireille BOISVERT and Francine M. MAYER, Centre pour l'étude des interactions biologiques entre la santé et l'environnement (CINBIOSE), Université de Québec, Montréal, QC (Canada)

Infant Mortality and Consanguinity in an Endogamous Population in Quebec (Mortalité infantile et consanguinité dans une population endogame du Québec) (p. 685-724)

The population registers of the Isle de Coudres in Quebec have been used to reconstitute families and their ancestors, and to classify them by the parameters needed to produce a distribution of infant deaths and to compute coefficients of kinship and consanguinity. The quality of the information obtained is shown by computing the variations between different genealogies, and by studying religious dispensations. Groups consisting, respectively, of related and unrelated individuals were constructed and matched, taking into account the different risks associated with infant mortality. Globally, no significant difference between the mortality of the groups during the first year of life was observed. The apparent similarity, however, conceals basic differences between the "related" group and the "unrelated" control group. In the "related" group, infant mortality rates were significantly higher for females than for males, whereas the opposite holds for the "unrelated" group. In the "related" group, the proportion of children who died during their first week of life was higher (although the difference was not statistically significant), and first children faced greater risks of dying during their first year of life. The masculinity ratio at birth was significantly lower than in the control group, or in the population as a whole. (CANADA, INFANT MORTALITY, POPULATION GENETICS, INBREEDING)

94.46.16 - French - Youssef COURBAGE, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)

Demographic Trends and Political Attitudes in Syria (Evolution démographique et attitudes politiques en Syrie) (p. 725-750)

Those responsible for framing population policies in Syria have wavered between pursuing a populationist policy, and a policy of population control. An increasing population means stressing nationhood in a country with a history of dismemberment. A larger population can be justified provided the ratio of people to resources was favourable. But, since the Census of 1970 which showed that population growth was much larger than had been expected, planners have increasingly opted for what, by implication, is a population policy related to economic development and the access of women to education and work. However, fertility remained extremely high up to 1986, in spite of the economic, social, and cultural progress that had been achieved. A stable rate of population growth at the national level concealed significant increases in certain sub-groups in which fertility was high, irrespective of women's educational background. Extended education did not reduce fertility, particularly as women failed to enter the labour market. Since the mid-1980s, new behaviour patterns have emerged. The economic crisis, the fall in production (especially in agriculture) and the emergence of an economy based on work for wages, have contributed to decreasing fertility throughout the country. Women are now more prepared to go to work outside their homes. The additional expenditure on children's schooling has also contributed to this new form of behaviour. (SYRIA, POPULATION POLICY, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, FERTILITY DECLINE)

94.46.17 - French - Amadou NOUMBISSI, Institut de Démographie, Université Catholique de Louvain, 1 Place Montesquieu, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

Population Dynamics and Age and Sex Structure of the Population. The Case of Cameroon (Structures par âge et sexe et dynamique démographiques. Le cas du Cameroun) (p. 751-772)

In this paper, a simple method, which is based entirely on a knowledge of the age structure, is presented to describe the dynamics of a population and assess the development of its birth and death rates. The method is based on the relations that exist between a population's structure and its development, as mapped out by Bennett and Horiuchi. The method is applied to data from Cameroon, following a critical evaluation of the age and sex structure of the population shown in the censuses of April 1976 and March 1987, after a period during which the death rate fell dramatically, the birth rate increased, whilst fertility rates during the early 1980s appear to have been declining. (CAMEROON, METHODOLOGY, DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS, AGE-SEX DISTRIBUTION, POPULATION DYNAMICS)

JULY-OCTOBER 1994 - NUMBER 4-5

94.46.18 - French - Alexandre AVDEEV and Alain MONNIER, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)

A Survey of Modern Russian Fertility (A la découverte de la fécondité russe contemporaine) (p. 859-902)

This article based on unpublished data presents birth rate trends during this century and analyses in greater detail the fertility of cohorts born after 1910. During this period, fertility in Russia changed from being amongst the highest in Europe (nearly three children per woman) to one of the lowest (1.8 children per woman in the cohort of 1945). A recent upturn has resulted in a final value of two children for the cohort of 1955. As in other countries, the reduction in the number of families with three or more children has resulted in a general fertility decline. But births of first and second orders have been exceptionally stable. This is the force of Russian fertility. It has progressed from a pattern of highly diverse family sizes to one in which the one or two-child family model has been widely adopted. The article also shows the family policy measures adopted in 1981 and attempts to assess their effects. Finally, it analyses the fall in fertility after 1987. Although this fall was, in the first instance, clearly a counter-effect of the expectations aroused by the measures of 1981, it is not possible to exclude the hypothesis that the recent fertility decline reflects a "wait and see" attitude among couples faced by a complex situation in Russia. (RUSSIA, FERTILITY TRENDS)

94.46.19 - French - Alexandre AVDEEV, Irina TROITSKAJA, University of Moscow, Moscow 119899 (Russia), and Alain BLUM, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)

The History of Abortion Statistics in Russia and the USSR from 1917 to 1991 (Histoire de la statistique de l'avortement en Russie et en URSS jusqu'en 1991) (p. 903-934)

The history of abortion and abortion statistics in the USSR between 1917 and 1991 is particular. Subjected to the vagaries of population policies during this period, they can be reconstituted today from many extant archives. This article is concerned with the relationships between laws, abortion trends, ideological changes, and statistics. It uses the abundant Russian and Soviet literature on abortion, as well as statistics from the archives of the Ministry of Health. Finally, the article analyses the recent decline in abortion and the development of modern contraception, mainly IUDs. (RUSSIA, USSR, INDUCED ABORTION, STATISTICAL DATA, HISTORY)

94.46.20 - French - Jean-Claude KAUFMANN, CERSOF, Université Paris 5, CNRS, Paris (France)

One-person Households in Europe (Les ménages d'une personne en Europe) (p. 935-958)

The number of one-person households has increased strongly and steadily throughout Europe. The largest number of single-person households is found among the population aged 65 and over. Their number, however, is growing only slowly, while the rate of growth in the intermediate age group is higher, and is largest among people aged between 25 and 35. It is not surprising that the increase in the propensity to live alone is lowest among widows and widowers, average for divorced persons, and highest for the single. Residential autonomy results from higher mortality levels among elderly men, difficulties in forming couple-relationships in the intermediate age group, and postponement of adult commitments by young people. The paper is based on a review of European research and shows a series of important characteristics of single-person households. The prevalence of these households differs between social groups and they are commonest at either end of the social scale, particularly among men. Patterns of living alone during their life cycles differ for men and women. Finally, single-person households are rarely durable, except among the elderly, and often constitute a series of very brief experiments for the young. (EUROPE, HOUSEHOLD, SINGLE PERSONS, LIFE CYCLE)

94.46.21 - French - Gerardo MEIL LANDWERLIN, Universitat Autonoma de Madrid, Madrid (Spain)

Trends in Spanish Family Policy. From Family Incomes to Policies for the Underprivileged (L'évolution de la politique familiale en Espagne. Du salaire familial à la lutte contre la pauvreté) (p. 959-984)

In Spain, family policy, which used to be the core of social policy during the first decades of the Franco regime, has become one of a number of measures in the struggle against poverty. In this article, the motivations, instruments, and importance of family policy are analyzed during different periods, and the factors which produced specific developments are outlined. During the 1940s and 1950s, family policy was used to compensate for the wage freezes required for the rapid accumulation of capital, whilst the capitalist modernization of the 1960s required more rational family protection, geared to economic needs. Since 1976, political democratisation and the fiscal crisis of the Welfare State, together with other cultural factors, have relegated family policy to obscurity. (SPAIN, SOCIAL POLICY, POVERTY, HISTORY)

94.46.22 - French - Alain JACQUOT, INSEE, 18 bd Adolphe-Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)

The Impact of Migration on the Ageing of French Regional Populations: A Study on Brittany and Lorraine (Les migrations et l'inégal vieillissement des zones rurales et des zones urbaines. Une étude sur la Bretagne et la Lorraine) (p. 985-1014)

The object of this paper is to assess the relative contribution of migration and natural increase to the ageing of the French population at the regional or local levels. The method is applied to 22 French regions on the mainland, and for two of these regions - Brittany and Lorraine - also to two sets of local areas defined by the proportion urban. In both regions, migration had a negative effect on the ageing of populations in the main cities and in local areas which have benefited from the process of counter-urbanisation, and a positive effect on the ageing of smaller cities. At the regional level, the impact of migration, measured in terms of changes in the average age, has always been smaller than that of natural increase, except in the lle-de-France region which includes the Paris area. (FRANCE, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING, INTERNAL MIGRATION)

94.46.23 - French - Yoram WEISS, University of Tel Aviv, Tel Aviv (Israel)

The Economists and the Formation of Couples: The Workings of Marriage and of the Marriage Market (Les économistes et la formation des couples. Le fonctionnement du mariage et du marché matrimonial) (p. 1015-1040)

This survey summarizes the main ideas that economists bring to the analysis of marriage and divorce. The new perspective of economists is that marriage, when viewed as a voluntary union of rational individuals, is subject to the same tools of analysis as other economic phenomena. In particular, economists rely heavily on the similitary between the job market, where workers and firms combine to produce marketable goods, and the marriage market, where husbands and wives combine to produce non-marketable household goods. In both cases, the forces of competition determine the assignment and the associated division of the proceeds between the partners. This survey does not enumerate individual contributions and does not summarize empirical findings. Instead, the reader is exposed to the main ideas in an integrated fashion, using simple models. Such a presentation of the literature can be useful to graduate students and researchers who wish to get acquainted with what economics can say on "non-economic" subjects such as marriage and divorce. The survey covers the following topics: gains from marriage, resource allocation within the family and the role of altruism, assortative matching and search for a mate. (ECONOMIC THEORY, NUPTIALITY)

94.46.24 - French - Youssef COURBAGE, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)

An Analysis of Population Policy in Egypt. The Use of Information from Recent Surveys (La politique démographique en Egypte et son évaluation. que nous apprennent les enquêtes récentes?) (p. 1041-1056)

This article attempts an evaluation of the population policy of the host country to the 1994 International Population Conference. Following failure of its previous policies, the government's objectives are modest: a birth rate of 25 per 1,000 by 2007. The birth rate dropped below 30 per 1,000 only in 1992, and not in 1978 as forecast by the Nasser government. These modest goals are explained by the limited popularity of small families, and also by a certain lack of interest on the part of those involved in population policy, sometimes at the highest levels of government. Population policy in Egypt has favoured modern contraception as a means of reducing the birth rate. However, experience in some Muslim and Arab countries has shown that modern contraception is not the only method of accelerating the demographic transition. Traditional contraception is encouraged in Turkey, and breastfeeding is still very widespread in Indonesia despite socioeconomic modernization. Lastly, the experience of the three Maghreb countries (Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia) shows that it is useless to expect a reduction in fertility without abandoning early marriage (in 1992, women's mean age at marriage exceeded 25 years in the Maghreb, compared with 22.4 in Egypt). However, raising the age at marriage is linked to the more general issue of women's status in Egyptian society, which seems to be deteriorating, as shown by excess mortality of females in childhood, excisions, unequal education for boys and girls, and low employment rates for women. (EGYPT, POPULATION POLICY, WOMEN'S STATUS)

94.46.25 - French - José CASTRO-ROVIRA

Santa Ana de Chipaya during the 19th Century. Sources, Methods and Results (Santa Ana de Chipaya au XIXe siècle. Sources, méthodes et bilan des résultats) (p. 1057-1078)

The reconstitution of this population of the upper Bolivian plateau is based on seven nominal lists for the period between 1838 and 1871, and parish records of marriages, baptisms, and burials between 1817 and 1871. Henry's method has been used to construct family files, and the two sources have been combined to measure the development and structure of the population as well as its fertility and mortality. The population more than doubled during 50 years in the middle of the 19th century. Fertility was of the order of 5.6 births per woman (compared with more than 7 today). Mortality was characterized by a life expectancy of 27 years and an infant mortality rate of 286 per 1,000, compared with 35 years and 186 per 1,000 respectively today. (BOLIVIA, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, NATURAL MOVEMENT, MONOGRAPHS)

NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 1994 - NUMBER 6

94.46.26 - French - Patrick FESTY, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)

Children in Families. Twenty Years of Change in the Family Environment of Children (L'enfant dans la famille. Vingt ans de changement dans l'environnement familial des enfants) (p. 1245-1296)

A growing number of children are now born to unmarried parents: 6% around 1965 against 33% in 1992, although the proportion of children born to mothers living alone ("single mothers") has not increased and has remained marginal. There has, however, been enormous growth in the number of "illegitimate children" recognised by their fathers, often since birth. An increasing proportion of children born "out of wedlock" come from couples already formed at the time of conception. Births out of wedlock are no longer the symptoms of "fragile" family situations. Descendants are increasingly formed by the juxtaposition of successive fertile unions and a rising proportion of children have half-brothers and half-sisters since birth: 6% around 1970 and 17-18% at the start of the 1990s. The development of the marriage-divorce-remarriage sequence or, more generally, couple-separation-new couple is highlighted here. After birth, out-of-wedlock children are less frequently legitimated by the marriage of their parents (3 out of 10 today compared to 5 out of 10 before 1990). The rise in the number of illegitimate births has resulted in 20% of children being brought up by unmarried parents compared to 3% previously. In recent cohorts, one in four children under 18 will experience at least one period of separation from one of its parents, compared to one in six in the 1966-70 cohorts, due to divorce (18%), separation in unmarried couples (5%) or never having known their father (12%). These phases of single parenthood, generally experienced with the mother, are followed by the formation of a new couple for one out of two children and the birth of half-brothers or half-sisters (less than one in four). When they concern the father without custody, such events are generally experienced at a distance. In all cases, these situations only become commoner due to the increased number of separations. Of the 14 million minors enumerated in 1990, the following proportions belong to expanding categories: (1) approximately 5% are born out of wedlock and not legitimated; (2) approximately 15% are separated from one of their parents (of whom 1/3 have seen their custodial parent form a new couple, the remaining two-thirds forming a single-parent family with the child); (3) 6% to 7% live with half-brothers or half-sisters. These categories are not mutually exclusive and sometimes contain low-growth groups (e.g. children of single mothers). A total of about one in five children live in these structures referred to as "new" because they are now more common. (FRANCE, FAMILY COMPOSITION, ILLEGITIMATE CHILDREN, FAMILY LIFE CYCLE)

94.46.27 - French - Christophe LEFRANC and Suzanne THAVE, INSEE, 18 bd Adophe-Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)

Changes in the Family Environment for Children (L'évolution de l'environnement familial des enfants) (p. 1297-1320)

Census data enable one to follow changes in children's family environments within households at seven to eight-year intervals. At the end of the 1960s, 93% of children under 16 lived with a couple of married parents. This largely dominant model has since declined significantly but still concerned 82% of children in 1990. The youngest children are most likely to have parents living as unmarried couples. Today there are more older children living in single-parent families produced by divorce. Apart from these changes related to the parental environment, the last two decades have also been marked by a fall in the number of other persons living in the same household as the children, particularly through a reduction in the number of siblings. For children under 16 living with a couple of parents, the mean number of siblings fell from 2.29 in 1968 to 1.55 in 1990. The everyday family environment of young adults aged 16 to 24 has also considerably changed over the last twenty years. They are now less likely at a given age to have already founded a family and tend to live with their parents even longer. Employment rates are also lower for these young adults who remain dependent on their parents for longer. (FRANCE, FAMILY COMPOSITION, FAMILY SIZE)

94.46.28 - French - Laurent TOULEMON, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)

The Place of Children in the History of Couples (La place des enfants dans l'histoire des couples) (p. 1321-1346)

The challenging of marriage has been reflected by the spread of unmarried couples and increased divorce rates. The rise in the illegitimate birth rate has resulted from the desire of many cohabiting couples to have children without transforming their relationship into marriage. Since the 1960s, the risk of marital breakdown has risen almost as greatly in couples with and without children. Having a very young child strongly reduces the instantaneous risk of breakdown, but once he or she has reached the age of six without a brother or sister, the risk of breakdown is similar to that in childless couples. Unmarried couples are much more fragile than married ones whether they have children or not. The increased risk of breakdown in couples is due to factors unrelated to fertility behaviour. Children are increasingly conceived by parents already living together and their birth is increasingly planned, but the presence of children then only has a small effect on the solidity of the couple unless the children are very young. As in the past, children are no guarantee of the solidity of couples. (FRANCE, FAMILY COMPOSITION, FAMILY STABILITY)

94.46.29 - French - France PRIOUX, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)

The Law and Unmarried Families in France (Le droit et les familles non mariées en France) (p. 1347-1374)

In the eyes of French law at the start of the 1960s, only marriage and marital procreation were allowed to form a true family: children born out of wedlock were deliberately discriminated against and were only related to their mother and sometimes to their father if recognised. The married family was in principle unbreakable until death, and divorce was only authorised in serious cases. The legislation in the 1970s gave illegitimate children a family if they were recognised by both parents and authorised divorce by mutual consent; but the assignment of parental authority and custody in practice favoured the relations between mothers and their children. The rapid increase in the number of children whose parents are not or are no longer married has led to changes in the law which increasingly assimilates the status of such parents to that of married couple. Parental rights shall be exerted jointly in almost all cases. Having examined the main laws governing the relations between unmarried family members (status of illegitimate children, right to divorce, parental authority) and having placed the French reforms in a European context, the author analyses the demographic and legal statistics on such families: recognition of illegitimate children, legitimisation, filiation and parental rights suits, divorce and suits following the granting of divorce. (FRANCE, FAMILY LAW, DIVORCE, CONSENSUAL UNION, ILLEGITIMATE CHILDREN)

94.46.30 - French - John ERMISCH, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ (U.K.)

Economics, Politics and Changes in the Family (Economie, politique et changement familial) (p. 1377-1388)

Changes in marriage, divorce and fertility rates in Europe and other industrialised countries over the last twenty years have had deep repercussions on family structure. They have been accompanied by a large increase in the proportion of working women, particularly mothers. These changes are too often used as a simplistic explanation for the fall in fertility, while in fact they are only part of a complex whole and, because of their interactions, are best understood if dealt with at the same time. The changes in the job market and law affecting female employment have had repercussions on divorce and fertility as changes in divorce have had repercussions on fertility and female employment. Family structure has thus been transformed, increasing the risk of poverty, particularly because of the greater number of one-parent families. Unravelling this complex web of relations is an exciting challenge for research. (DIVORCE, FERTILITY, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, FAMILY COMPOSITION)

94.46.31 - French - Olivia EKERT-JAFFT, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)

Estimating the Changing Cost of Children. A Change in Society, Criticism of Concepts (Chiffrer une évolution du coût de l'enfant? Changement de société, mise en cause des concepts) (p. 1389-1418)

In modern society, the family is no longer a basic unit in which its members blend without considering their own short-term personal interests. Individualism has become the rule. Concepts of the cost of children have also undergone a parallel change as part of this development. Initially, when the aim was to fight against poverty and maintain family living standards, research was directed to setting nutritional and budget standards. Subsequent research methods were based on household behaviour which was decreasingly focused on satisfying their basic needs. From 1964, economic models were based on the welfare of parents who make both economic and fertility decisions. The latest research tests the compatibility of the models with observed consumer behaviour. It shows that household consumption does not give any information on welfare in different types of households at a point of time, but gives a full comparison of trends in these welfare levels after setting their value at a point by convention. Researchers are trying to develop a model to determine the individual preferences of the household members and the rules for income sharing. The extension of education and the fact that the great majority of women now work have greatly driven up the cost of children. (ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, COST OF CHILDREN, STANDARD OF LIVING, ECONOMIC MODELS)

94.46.32 - French - Greg J. DUNCAN, Jean W. YEUNG, Willard RODGERS

Lone-parent Families in the US. Dynamics, Economics Status and Developmental Consequences (Les familles monoparentales aux Etats-Unis. Dynamique, niveau de vie et conséquences sur le développement de l'enfant) (p. 1419-1436)

More than one-third of all children born in the United States in the mid-1970s spent at least part of their childhoods living in female-headed families. Such family structures are found to be transitory in many cases, especially among whites. Family incomes are substantially reduced during the time children spend in female-headed families. Access to time or money help from friends or relatives is no more likely in one-parent families. Children in mother-only families do worse along a number of developmental dimensions. In the case of cognitive development but not behavior problems, economic differences account for the bulk of the family structure effects. (UNITED STATES, ONE-PARENT FAMILY, STANDARD OF LIVING, CHILD DEVELOPMENT)

94.46.33 - French - Lee RAINWATER and Timothy M. SMEEDING

A Comparative Perspective of the Economic Welfare of European Children (Le bien-être économique des enfants européens : une perspective comparative) (p. 1437-1450)

A comparative survey of industrialised countries, the Luxembourg Income Study, has measured the economic welfare of children in the 1980s. Twelve countries are European: Germany, Belgium, Finland, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Norway, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Sweden and Switzerland, and four are non-European: Australia, Canada, the United States and Israel. In some countries trends can be measured from the end of 1960s. The proportion of deprived children is higher in non-European countries (12 to 23%) than in Europe (3 to 13%). It is also much higher in single-parent families (6 to 64%) than in two-parent families (1 to 13%). At best, the economic status of children has stayed constant over time although it has deteriorated over the last 25 years in two major countries: the United Kingdom and the United States. (CHILDREN, INDIVIDUAL WELFARE, POVERTY, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

94.46.34 - French - Marie-France VALETAS, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)

Maintenance Payments after Divorce in France and Russia (Le paiement des pensions alimentaires en France et en Russie) (p. 1451-1472)

Analysis of maintenance payments in France and Russia shows the difference in relations between the ex-spouses, according to whether or not these relations are linked to the prevailing regulations. In Russia, unlike France, the amount and mode of payment of maintenance are set systematically. Payment is effective, constant over time and is virtually non-discriminatory in terms of the social class of the creditor. The debtor has the initiative in France and full payment is much lower, changes little over time and is highly differentiated in terms of social class. The measures taken by creditors to recover maintenance payments that have fallen behind take greater account of social class in France. There is less difference between the two countries in the field of private relations as there is greater social hierarchy in Russia and as ex-partners are seen more positively when payments are kept up. Interpretation of these findings requires a historical perspective, placing particular emphasis on the type of relations between the state and family. (FRANCE, RUSSIA, DIVORCE, ALIMONY, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

94.46.35 - French - Gérard CALOT, INSEE, 18 bd Adolphe-Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)

Tax Law, Marital Status and Number of Children (Droit fiscal, état matrimonial et nombre d'enfants) (p. 1473-1500)

This article analyses certain aspects of French direct taxation in 1992 and 1993 according to marital status, number of children and income. It appears that the various provisions added to the family splitting rule are the cause of a significant difference between the number of fiscal units according to the legislation based on the number of children and the actual number, particularly in low-income families. Marriage is only advantageous for married couples with one breadwinner. If a couple with less than three children has two incomes of similar value, it is better off staying unmarried if not married and divorcing if married. The benefit gained from such decisions can be worth up to FF 30,000 per year. The increase in the rate of the new social tax (called CSG) combined with the reduction in income tax has increased the tax burden for almost all households and this is detrimental to low-income families. (FRANCE, TAXATION, FAMILY SIZE, MARITAL STATUS)

94.46.36 - French - Ron LESTHAEGHE and Guy MOORS

Explaining the Diversity of Family and Domestic Types: Economic Theory or Cultural Influence? (Expliquer la diversité des formes familiales et domestiques : théorie économique ou dimension culturelle?) (p. 1503-1526)

Decisions on family formation (cohabiting or getting married, divorce, having children, leaving home) and domestic situations (having an outside job or staying at home) are explained reductively by contemporary theories such as those of G. Becker and R. Easterlin. The cultural dimension should be added. This is shown by analysing the European survey on values in 1990 in four countries (West Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands). From 30 indicators belonging to 11 scales of values, we have extracted three dimensions of conservatism which were found to be associated with family and domestic choices in men and women aged 20-29 and 30-50. These findings confirm those from American surveys, even if the interpretation of a single survey is more limited than that of multiround surveys. Furthermore, neo-classical economic theory seems to be more suitable for describing female behaviour and that of deceived expectations for describing male behaviour. (ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, FAMILY COMPOSITION, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT)

94.46.37 - French - Michel BOZON and Catherine VILLENEUVE-GOKALP, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)

The Relations Between Generations at the End of Adolescence (Les enjeux des relations entre générations à la fin de l'adolescence) (p. 1527-1556)

With the prolonging of the transition to adulthood, young people now tend to increasingly distinguish themselves from adolescents. The generally held idea that adolescence is a problematic phase is mainly caused by a conflict between the longing of young people for autonomy and the reality of their financial dependence from the older generation. We have examined how compromises have been established between generations at the end of adolescence using a survey conducted by INED in 1993 on 3,000 young adults aged 25 to 34. Boys and girls show a great difference in the degree of control on their going out, friends and love lives. Controls are much stricter for girls. The difference between the sexes varies with social class being much greater in the working classes than in the upper classes. Where control is strictest, relations between parents and young people sometimes evolve into open conflict which can upset the transition into adulthood through leaving home earlier. (FRANCE, ADOLESCENCE, SEX DIFFERENTIALS)

94.46.38 - French - Claude MARTIN

After Separation: Between the Risk of Loneliness, Defense of Independence and Family Recomposition (Diversité des trajectoires post-désunion : entre le risque de solitude, la défense de son autonomie et la recomposition familiale) (p. 1557-1584)

After first emphasizing the study of psycho-emotional effects of separation on children, then the social and economic effects of separation, the scientific debate on the outcome of divorce has recently been directed to the mobility of these situations and especially on family recomposition, which shows an increasing trend. However, this does not mean that all single-parent households will end up being restructured. Although the available data show that family recomposition is commoner in lower income groups than in middle and upper income ones, particularly for economic reasons, account should also be taken of the participants' own logic and the conditions determining the type of family and couple formed. This article presents the range of post-separation outcomes based on two mail surveys, conducted at a 3-year interval (1987 and 1990), of a cohort of 336 separated and divorced parents with children in their custody. The type of structure created and the difficulties caused by family breakdown are affected by age, sex and cultural background and whether the partners are employed or not before and after the breakdown. Differences in terms of social class are also found in solidarity expressed by close friends and kin. (DIVORCE, FAMILY FORMATION, SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIFFERENTIALS, FAMILY LIFE CYCLE)

94.46.39 - French - Maire NI BHROLCHAIN, Roma CHAPPELL and Ian DIAMOND

Education and Other Socio-demographic Characteristics in Children from Broken Marriages (Scolarité et autres caractéristiques socio-démographiques des enfants de mariages rompus) (p. 1585-1612)

A series of successive surveys have been conducted on a sample of children born in 1958 in Great Britain, at the ages of 7, 16, 23 and 33, to determine their family status at these dates and to record information about their education, their lifestyle, parental attitudes, etc. This group consisted of 7,866 boys and girls living with both their parents at the age of seven, 9% of whose parents had separated or died in the nine ensuing years. We compared the prevalence of the different types of behaviour observed between the ages of 16 and 23 (leaving school, leaving the parental home, forming a couple, having children) according to whether these children stayed with both their parents or experienced their separation. Both groups were made as comparable as possible in terms of all the family and personal characteristics observable by the age of seven. There were few highly significant differences in the behaviour of teenagers according to the family history experienced during childhood. Thorough statistical analysis hence failed to confirm the previously held notion of the Ion--term effects of parental separation on the educational and socio-demographic behaviour of their children. (UNITED KINGDOM, CHILDREN, FAMILY DISINTEGRATION, LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS)

94.46.40 - French - Gretchen A. CONDRAN and Frank F. FURSTENBERG

Trends in Child Welfare and Transformations in the American Family (Evolution du bien-être des enfants et transformations de la famille américaine) (p. 1613-1638)

Is there any detectable synchronism between trends in the number of working mothers and divorce rates or numbers of births out of wedlock and trends in the number of teenagers gaining secondary school qualifications or going into higher education, drug or alcohol consumption, committing suicide or murder and having children out of wedlock? The first factors are indicators of the changes in American families over the last thirty years, while the other factors concern the behaviour of young people which could reflect the harmful effects on generations increasingly affected by these family transformations. On the one hand, changes in the family are not redressing, marking the decline in the traditional pattern of two parents and one breadwinner. On the other hand, there has been a wide variety of changes in the behaviour of young people. Some indicators show more or less continuous improvement in the welfare of young people (proportion with secondary school qualifications) while others show a deterioration now curbed (access to higher education, alcohol and drug consumption, etc.), while yet others are a sign of continuous deterioration (murder, suicide, illegitimate births). The latter are thus the only ones that could demonstrate a correlation with family transformations. But one should be careful even in such cases, since women are less affected than men and the situation of blacks and whites sometimes moves in opposite directions. Overall, the general idea of the harmful effects of changes in the family on the welfare of children should be treated with the strongest reservations. (UNITED STATES, FAMILY, SOCIAL CHANGE, CHILDREN, INDIVIDUAL WELFARE)

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