Back to home page1993-1994 - VOLUME 19, NUMBER 1
94.43.01 - German - Gert HULLEN and Reiner SCHULZ
Report on the Population Situation of Germany in 1993 (Bericht 1993 zur demographischen Lage in Deutschland) (p. 3-70)
In 1991, the population of Germany reached the level of 80 million inhabitants and increased to almost 81 million by the end of the next year. In both 1991 and 1992, the balance of natural movements was negative while the migratory balance was positive. This is the first time in many years that net migration within the ex-East German territory has been positive, but its population is still declining. The numbers of marriages and births in the new Länder are still decreasing, although less so than in 1991. Life expectancy has increased slightly - for both sexes and at all ages, it is two or three years lower in the East than the West. One-quarter of the 788,000 net immigrants are Germans and one-third are of German origin. Migratory movements between the two parts of Germany are going less and less often in the one direction. The authors make a systematic comparison of the situation and demographic trends in the new Länder compared to the previous ones and do likewise with household structures and living conditions. Similarities with regard to certain matters are increasing while differences remain with regard to others. (GERMANY, POPULATION SITUATION)
94.43.02 - German - Karl SCHWARZ
Children and Youths in German Single-parent Families in 1991 (Kinder und Jugendliche in den Familien Alleinstehender in Deutschland im Jahr 1991) (p. 71-92)
As of April 1991, there were more than 2 million minors in Germany who were living with only one of their parents, or 11.4% of all the minors in the previous Länder and 18.7% in the new Länder. The author has calculated that, upon reaching their majority, 79% of children born in 1975 were living with both parents in the ex-Länder (69% in the new ones), 10% (14%) were living in a re-built family while 11% (17%) lived with their lone mother. In the ex-Länder, 60% of single mothers with children and 83% in the new Länder were working outside the home in 1991. Their net monthly income, in 60% of cases in the West and in almost 100% of cases in the East, was less than DM 1,800. It is therefore amongst the group of women living alone with their minor children that the greatest level of poverty is to be found. An increase in the number of divorces is also resulting in an increase in the number of children living with a separated or divorced parent (1.2 million). (GERMNANY, ONE-PARENT FAMILY, FAMILY LIFE, LIVING CONDITIONS)
94.43.03 - German - Eckart BOMSDORF
Future Trends in the Mortality and Life Expectancy of Generations Born between 1903 and 1993 (Zur zukünftigen Entwicklung von Mortalität und Lebenserwartung der Geburtsjahrgänge 1903 bis 1993) (p. 93-104)
Life tables are not only used to make population forecasts, but, for example, they are also useful in the fields of life assurance, sickness insurance and invalidity/old age insurance schemes. Up until now, period life tables have been mainly used and, in general, they tend to over-estimate future trends in mortality quotients and, thus, to under-estimate life expectancy. The author presents some of the elements of longitudinal life tables for the 1903-1993 generations which have been calculated using an exponential projection of annual mortality quotients. Comparing these with period life tables from 1986-1988 highlights some marked differences which draw attention to a possible decline in mortality and thereby, an increase in life expectancy of which the social and economic consequences should not be under-estimated. (GERMANY, MORTALITY TRENDS, GENERATION LIFE TABLES)
1993-1994 - VOLUME 19, NUMBER 2
94.43.04 - German - Bernd STÖRTZBACH
Germany after Unification. Opinions and Attitudes on the Family, Children and Family Policies in the East and West (Deutschland nach der Vereinigung. Meinungen und Einstellungen zu Familie, Kindern und zur Familienpolitik in Ost und West) (p. 151-168)
The author presents the preliminary results of a study undertaken in 1992 by the German Institute for Population Research within the framework of the European Comparative Population Policy Acceptance Survey, on the acceptance of family policy measures. A representative sample of 10,000 people aged from 20 to 39 were interviewed in order to discover their opinions and attitudes with regard to the family, children and various existing or possible family policy measures. This preliminary analysis of the results is aimed at delineating any differences or similarities between the opinions emitted in the East and in the West of Germany. There have been substantial differences in the explanation of the drop in the number of births, the interest shown in the family and children and in the appreciation of the current family policy of the Federal Government and of some isolated political measures on the family. These differences probably originate in the more-than-forty years divide of the Germans into two very different societies. They also show that the process of social transformation which the unification has engendered and which is having a particular impact on the new Länder, is far from complete from the point of view of understanding the demographic and socio-political situations. (GERMANY, TRANSITIONAL SOCIETY, POPULATION POLICY, OPINION SURVEYS)
94.43.05 - German - Arthur E. IMHOF
Live a Full Life and Die Serenely. A Summary Report on a Symposium held in Berlin, November 23rd to 25th, 1993 and on the Preparatory Works (Erfüllt leben, in Gelassenheit sterben. Summarischer Bericht über ein Symposium in Berlin vom 23.-25. November 1993 und über das zugrundeliegende Forschungsvorhaben) (p. 169-188)
In the framework of an inter-ministerial research project carried out between mid-1990 and mid-1994 on the topic, "Increased life expectancy over the last 300 years and its consequences; or, Years gained, worlds lost, how can we achieve a new balance?", an interdisciplinary symposium entitled "Live a Full Life and Die Serenely" was held in Berlin in November 1993. The overall project was divided into three parts. First of all, a data bank was built up on sex- and age-specific life expectancies, by period and by generation, for Germany since the XVIIth century, as well as for Norway and Sweden for purposes of comparison. This data bank has been made available to any researchers who are interested. Two interdisciplinary conferences (1991 and 1993) were partly dedicated to interpreting these data and again, the reports are freely available. The first was entitled "Are we living too long?", while the second's title was, "Live a full life and die serenely". The author deals more specifically here with the currents of thought developed during the latter of the two. (GERMANY, CONFERENCES, MORTALITY TRENDS, DATA BANKS)
94.43.06 - German - Josef KYTIR and Alexia PRSKAWETZ
Trends in Life Expectancy at Retirement Age. Epidemiological Scenarios with a "Differed" Mortality for Specific Causes of Death (Entwicklung der Lebenserwartung im Rentenalter. Epidemiologische Szenarien unter der Annahme "verzögerter" Mortalität bei ausgewählten Todesursachen) (p. 189-202)
The authors present a projection of the life expectancy of elderly Austrian women in the year 2010. They have used the SIMCAD model of "simultaneously differed causes of death" of which the main variables are age- and cause-specific mortality rates. They have made a model of the epidemiological concept of the progressive decline of certain illnesses leading to chronic disability. In the preliminary stage, the causes of death are classified in 26 groups according to whether mortality is increasing, stagnating or declining. Then, the authors estimate the delay introduced into the age-specific rates series by the decline in mortality due to certain groups of causes and simultaneously determine the projection hypotheses of the groups of causes with either constant or increasing mortality. For each age and sex category, the total mortality rates thus obtained for each group of causes can be used as a basis for projecting life expectancy up until 2010. The differences between the life expectancies calculated in this way and those from classical projections are slight at 60 years old, but increase with increasing age. Even with pessimistic hypotheses, the SIMCAD model foresees a larger increase in the life expectancy of the elderly than do the official forecasts and, therefore, a greater increase in the number of over-85s than is foreseen. (AUSTRIA, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, METHODOLOGY, AGED)
94.43.07 - English - John POLLARD and Charlotte HÖHN
The Interaction between the Sexes (p. 203-228)
The difference in numbers between unmarried males and females, aged 20 to 40 years, is greater in Germany than elsewhere, to such a degree that the classical "one-sex" models of demographic analysis are of no use. The "issue of interaction between the sexes" has been preoccupying demographers for some time now, for example in the analysis of nuptiality or in building projections by marital status. The authors present here a two-sex demographic analysis model which is basically non-parametric and is relatively easy to use. It produces coherent results and gives numbers of married couples which correspond to expectations. It confirms that the problem of excess numbers of young, single males will become more widespread in the framework of the Western nuptiality model. Excess male mortality will only be responsible for absorbing a small percentage of this excess while the remaining adjustment will have to be made through an increase in divorce rates which will decrease the pressure on the marriage market. But, from another point of view, the continued decline in the number of births will tend to emphasise any disparity. (DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS, MARRIAGEABLE POPULATION, SEX DISTRIBUTION, PROJECTIONS)
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