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e page1994 - VOLUME 36, NUMBER 1
24th Conference of the Czech Demographic Society: "The 1991 Census in the Czech Republic"
This conference was convened in order to reflect upon the very low rate of population growth in the Czech Republic, the continued increase in ageing and in the concentration of population in middle-sized towns. Occupational activity of the elderly has declined dramatically while there has been very little change in structures by nationality and social category. Fertility has declined very slightly. After 40 years of official atheism, 44% of the population now declare a religious following: 39% are Roman Catholics (mainly either middle-aged people or the elderly). Trends in the number and structure of households since 1980 can be characterised by a 16% growth in the number of single-person households and only 1% growth in other types of household; for the first time, the number of complete nuclear families with children has decreased. This trend, along with the drop in cohabitation, has resulted in a decrease in household size (already, 23% of dwellings are occupied by only one person). The structure of apartments has improved and the average quality of accommodation has increased (16.6 m˛ of living space per person). The results of the last census bring to a close the period 1950-1991. Future trends in population and household structures will be compared with them in the new social context. (CZECHOSLOVAKIA, POPULATION CENSUSES, POPULATION SITUATION)
94.39.02 - English - Guillaume WUNSCH, Université Catholique de Louvain-la-Neuve, 1 Place Montesquieu, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)
Theories, Models, and Data
Demography contains very few theories. There have only been a few explanatory theories formulated in the fields of mortality and fertility, but this is a far-from-satisfying state of affairs. If this is the case, it is perhaps, in the words of Louis Henry, because demographic data are available in great quantities from official sources. The study of population has therefore concentrated more on describing trends than on providing explanations. Thus, the technique of data analysis is quite predominant and quantitative methods have been given great help to develop. The lack of theories is also due to the fact that, in order to provide an explanation in demography, other disciplines have to be called upon - and demographers are not always willing to cross these frontiers. (POPULATION THEORY, METHODOLOGY)
94.39.03 - English - Jaroslav KRAUS, Ivan TOMEK, Petr VELEBIL and Howard GOLDBERG
Research of Reproduction and Woman Health, Czech Republic, 1993
Between January and June 1993, an in-depth study of reproduction in relation to women's health was carried out in the Czech Republic. The stratified sample was representative at the level of the smaller territorial units. The questionnaire covered a wide range of subjects relating to pregnancy and childbirth, knowledge and use of contraceptive methods, mother and child health, young women's sex lives, attitudes towards fertility and AIDS, as well as social, economic and demographic characteristics. This article presents its preliminary results which will be subjected to more detailed analysis in 1994. Amongst other results can be quoted: 66% of women aged 15 to 49 do not wish to have any further children while 69% of married or divorced women use one or other method of family planning. The most widely used methods are withdrawal, the condom and the IUD. The Pill is only used by 8% of women as there is widespread fear of any side effects. Practically all Czech women look favourably upon abortion. (CZECHOSLOVAKIA, FERTILITY SURVEY, HEALTH)
1994 - VOLUME 36, NUMBER 2
94.39.04 - English - Pavla HORSKA
Uncertain Prognosis of European Family Evolution
At the end of the Second World War, the demographers predicted that there would be a disastrous decline in European population numbers by 1970. But, instead of this decline, there was a population boom - to such an extent that, about 1960, regular, long-term growth was beginning to be forecasted in the population projections of the developed European countries. Again, this was wrong. Family sociologists are unable to give any help to demographers in the forecasting of family trends and, without these forecasts, population projections will remain just vague perspectives. The author demonstrates that this assumption is also true for the Czech population. (CZECHOSLOVAKIA, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, FAMILY, SOCIOLOGY)
94.39.05 - English - Miroslav SIMEK
Population Prognosis of the Czech Republic
Population numbers in the Czech Republic will increase to 10,429,000 by the year 2004, or an increase of 103,000 compared to the present situation. This will mainly be the result of positive natural movements. Between 1995 and 2004, the ricochet effects of the pro-natalist policy of the 1970s will begin to be felt: due to the arrival of the largest female cohorts at their age of maximum fertility, the number of births and the gross birth rate will increase up to 1999 before declining at first slowly, then more and more rapidly, until they fall below their current levels. (CZECHOSLOVAKIA, POPULATION PROJECTIONS)
94.39.06 - English - Boris BURCIN, Milan KUCERA and Tomas KUCERA
Prospects of the Population in the Czech Republic (Prognosis of Demographic Evolution until 2010)
These prospects are part of the international project entitled "East-Central Europe 2000" which, for the Czech Republic, is being coordinated by the Institute of Sociology of the Czech Academy of Science. It is estimated that the current socio-economic transformations will result in the age of females at marriage and at giving birth being delayed and that the number of children will decline in young families. Modern contraceptive methods will become rapidly widespread. In these conditions, it is likely that the age-specific fertility rate curve will draw close to that which characterises several Western countries. The total fertility rate should drop to 1.40 or 1.50 children per woman while fertility should reach its peak at an age of between 24 and 26. The median age of mothers at the birth of their children will increase by one year to about 25. Depending on the hypotheses used, male life expectancy will increase from 67.6 years in 1990 to 71.2 or 72.5 in 2010 while female life expectancy will increase from 759 in 1990 to either 78 or 79 in 2010. Mortality will decline, mainly after the age of 45 for men and after 65 for women. The Czech Republic will probably become an immigration country, with most immigrants likely to be Czechs living in Slovakia (numbering about 42,000). (CZECHOSLOVAKIA, POPULATION PROJECTIONS)
94.39.07 - English - Ladislav RABUSIC
Population Projection of the Czech Republic to the Year 2030
The author presents some projections which, for the hypothetical mortality trends, are based on the new Coale and Guo life tables. The high mortality amongst the population aged over 65 remains, while that of the population aged under 35 grows similar to that of the developed Western countries. The four scenarios which have been envisaged will lead to either a moderate increase or a slight decline in population numbers, but all will lead to rapid ageing from 2010 onwards. (CZECHOSLOVAKIA, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS)
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