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e page1993 - NUMBER 2
94.38.01 - Dutch - Ad P. VOSSEN
Population Ageing and Public Health Care in the Netherlands: The Long-term Demographic Effects (Bevolkingsveroudering en gezondheidszorg in Nederland: het demografisch effect voor de lange termijn) (p. 1-19)
The main issue of this article can be summarized by the question "What will be the share of the demographic factor in the future development of the costs of the health system"? The time perspective, being the long term, is justified by the fact that both the population system and the health care system can be represented by stable and substantial indicators. The population system is operationalized in terms of its age structure (as derived from three strongly differing demographic scenarios), while the costs of health care are expressed in age/gender profiles. By holding the latter constant in time, one can calculate whether changing age patterns will decrease or increase the per capita costs of health care. Our analyses show that the demographic effect on the cost of illness can be predicted reasonably well for the coming twenty-five years, and will approximately amount to ten per cent. The former is due to the dominant position of the afterwar baby-boom generations in the overall ageing process. In the following period, the demographic effect takes a more divergent course, and, as a consequence, uncertainty is growing. Similar analyses have subsequently been made for separate parts of the health system, such as hospital nursing days, the care for demented patients, and the mental deficiency sector. (NETHERLANDS, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING, PUBLIC HEALTH, LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS)
94.38.02 - Dutch - Robert CLIQUET, K. KIERNAN, W. LUTZ, F. MESLE and C. PRINZ
The Future of Europe's Population. A Scenario Approach (De toekomst van Europa's bevolking. Een scenariobenadering) (p. 21-41)
This article summarizes a study which was recently published in the series "Population Studies" of the Council of Europe. It presents the main results of a multiple demographic scenario analysis for the period 1990-2050, that has been performed for the Council of Europe member states having a population of over one million. Based on an overview of the recent trends in fertility, migration, and mortality, and of their background, alternative assumptions have been conceived about their possible future course. The selected assumptions have been combined in 9 different scenarios in view of performing a multivariate sensitivity analysis about their effects on population size, population age structure, and ethnic composition. Although the projections have been produced per country, the results have only been analyzed for all the countries considered together. (EUROPE, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS)
94.38.03 - Dutch - Ronald CAMSTRA
The Influence of Childbirth on Changes in Labour and Housing Careers (De invloed van de geboorte van kinderen op veranderingen in de arbeids- en wooncarrière) (p. 43-63)
The individual life course consists of a number of careers which are strongly intertwined. The main focus of this article can be found in the interrelations of the fertility career, the working career, and the housing career. A new data source, the TelePanel, enables us to look at the influence of changes in one career on other careers at the individual level with a high accuracy in time. Childbirth is the main event here. Over the past decades, the moment of quitting a job came closer to the moment of childbirth, which made the sequence change direction: nowadays a women quits her job because she's pregnant, while she used to quit a job to become pregnant. Analyses of relocation behaviour show that many women delay getting pregnant until they have found larger home. (NETHERLANDS, EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS, FERTILITY, EMPLOYMENT, HOUSING)
94.38.04 - Dutch - Gilbert DOOGHE
Demographic Profile of the Very Elderly in Belgium (Demografisch profiel van de hoogbejaarden in België) (p. 65-93)
This article describes the development and the characteristics of the elderly aged 85 or over in Belgium. The heterogeneity of the group of the elderly also applies to that of the very elderly: differences as to sex, age, accommodation, income, health and degree of dependence. As well as it was the case in the last few years it is expected that, for the coming decades, the age group 85 years and over will proportionately increase much faster than the age group 65 years and over. More and more persons of 65 and over reach very advanced age. Three fourths of those aged 85 or over are women. Also the number of families with two generations of elderly people is rapidly increasing and thus causes a constantly higher pressure on the sector of care. The greater part of the women of 85 and over are widows living alone, whereas men of the same age are more often married and living in a family. As a result of the increasing age the number of elderly people living in institutions is rising. Further it appears that the income of the elderly aged 85 or over is very problematic, although the socioeconomic position of the elderly has generally improved. Especially widowhood and singleness considerably contribute to their insecurity. In this connection we observed that the older elderly are less often home-owners than the younger elderly. Despite this less favourable situation of the very elderly it would be wrong to consider them as a group really needing care. Many of them are still in relatively good health. (BELGIUM, AGED, SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS)
94.38.05 - Dutch - Harrie A. M. JANSEN
Duration and Development of Communal Households (Duurzaamheid en verloop in jongeren- en gezinswoongroepen) (p. 95-116)
Data from a four year panel study in The Netherlands shows that group duration and membership turnover are closely connected with the group's life stage composition. Groups with parent-child units (families) are both more durable and more stable in membership than groups of singles or groups of couples. Data on ways on and reasons for leaving show that most groups function as institutionalization of the "psychosocial moratorium". Two patterns of turnover appear from data on the development of the groups' composition. According to the first pattern, which is especially prevalent in groups of youngsters, the mean age of members remains constant by replacing relatively old leavers with younger newcomers; according to the second pattern, especially prevalent in groups of families, the mean age rises with time by replacing leavers with newcomers of about the same age. Finally membership shows a tendency towards homogeneity with regard to life stages. (NETHERLANDS, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, LIFE CYCLE)
1994 - NUMBER 1
94.38.06 - Dutch - Wim C. M. MUTSAERS, Coby GERLSMA and Bram P. BUUNK
Evaluation of the Parental Household and Current Marriages (Ouderlijk gezin en huwelijkssatisfactie) (p. 1-26)
The relationship between an individuals experiences in the family of origin and the evaluation of current marriage has been studied, using a large sample of married couples in which at least one of the spouses has remarried following a divorce. The theoretical aspects relative to the quality of intimate relations have been inspired by Bowlby-Ainsworth's theory of psycho-social attachment according to which a bad experience in a relationship in childhood has an unfavourable effect on the adult's later aptitude for intimate relations it could, therefore, be expected that the divorced people in the sample would declare having had more negative experiences in their childhood than the people who were in their first marriage. A positive association between the characteristics of the parents and the family of origin and the qualitative evaluation of the current marriage could also be counted on. However, neither of these two hypotheses was clearly confirmed due to the wide-ranging differences between males and females with regard to the relationship between childhood experiences and intimate relations in adulthood. The authors study the implications of this result for the debate on the continuous nature or otherwise of psycho-social development. (SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS, FAMILY NUCLEUS, SATISFACTION)
94.38.07 - Dutch - Clare H. MULDER
Longitudinal Approaches to Migration: For When? (Cohortenbenaderingen van migratie : wanneer zinvol ?) (p. 26-51)
In the present article, the author studies the extent to which research on migration benefits from the use of methods of longitudinal approach. Following a description and evaluation of some longitudinal studies found in the literature, she presents what the expectations are with regard to differential migratory behavioural patterns between generations. These expectations are based on theoretical considerations, underlining the instrumentality of the migratory biography with respect to the other trajectories which go to make up a life course. Recent empirical results, based on the migration statistics supplied by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) for the period from 1973 to 1989 and on the Housing Demand Surveys undertaken by the CBS in 1981, 1985 and 1989, have confirmed these expectations. The author concludes from this that the contribution of longitudinal approaches to research on migration is relatively slim and mainly restricted to the study of specific migratory events which, generally speaking, only take place once in a lifetime, such as leaving the parents' home. (NETHERLANDS, MIGRATION, DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS, LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS)
94.38.08 - Dutch - Edith LODEWIJCKX
Turkish and Moroccan Women and Family Planning in Flanders and Brussels and in Their Country of Origin (Turkse en Marokkaanse vrouwen : gezinsplanning in Vlaanderen en Brussel en in de herkomstlanden)
The Turkish and Moroccan communities are the largest immigrant populations in Flanders and in the city of Brussels at the present time. This article describes specific aspects of family building within these groups, highlights their contraceptive behaviour and compares them with the behavioural patterns of the Belgian population, on the one hand and with those of the non-migrant population of their countries of origin, on the other. The desired number of children and the number of children actually born to Turkish and Moroccan women in Belgium are higher than the corresponding numbers amongst Belgian women but lower than those of non-migrant couples in Turkey and Morocco. Most of the immigrant women approve of contraceptive use, know of several contraceptive methods and know where to obtain family planning services. Their "contraceptive profile" is comparable with that of Belgian women: the high intensity of contraceptive practice is comparable amongst the three groups and they make massive use of "modern", efficient methods, but the choice of method differs from one group to another. The "contraceptive profile" of migrant women is more "modern" than that of their non-migrant compatriots. (BELGIUM, MOROCCO, TURKEY, MIGRANTS, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE)
94.38.09 - English - Ewa TABEAU
Changing Definitions in Infant Mortality: A Case Study of The Netherlands, 1843-1991 (p. 79-107)
The present study deals with the problems of definition in the analysis of infant mortality in The Netherlands over the past 150 years: (1) Have these definitions remained stable or not, in both the short- and long-term? (2) What historical trends in infant mortality can be observed if the parameters are recalculated according to the most recent definitions of live birth, stillbirth and viability of a new-born baby? (3) Has there been any noticeable change in the age structure of infant deaths between 1843 and 1991? The author has dealt with these questions, amongst others, by developing a data base for the study of mortality by age period in time and generation in The Netherlands from 1843 to 1991. Given that an erroneous calculation of the infant mortality rates could have serious consequences, she studies any problems which are likely to arise with regard to data coherency. (NETHERLANDS, INFANT MORTALITY, MORTALITY TRENDS, METHODOLOGY)
94.38.10 - Dutch - Evert VAN IMHOFF
Population and Environment: Demographic Aspects of Sustainable Development (Bevolking en milieu : demografische aspecten van duurzame ontwikkeling) (p. 109-128)
The theme of "Population and environment" is apparently a highly emotive subject. The present article attempts to build bridges between the defenders of the two extreme theses in this debat, by simultaneously incorporating the demographic and the economic aspects in a global examination of environmental problems, by means of an analytic schema which has been simplified in the extreme. The basis of the "population-environment-development" issue lies in the restricted nature of the total volume of available natural resources, represented by the concept of "load capacity". The author questions whether the pursuit of demographic growth is compatible with sustainable development and if such a thing as "sustainable numbers" of world population exist. He concludes that sustainable development is only possible if radical changes occur both in economic behavioural patterns and demographic trends. (WORLD POPULATION, ENVIRONMENT, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT)
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