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1994 - NUMBER 209

94.32.01 - Japenese - Moriyuki OE

The Method for Projecting Households by Family Type in Terms of Headship Cohort Change - Part 2. Projecting Marital Status and Headship Rates by Family Type in Household Formation Stage

The first part of this study contained a model of the process of household transition where the household head is aged over 35, by family size and described a household projection method by family type using this transition model. This second part deals with projecting those households where the head is aged under 35 years old at the time of household formation. The author adopts the already well-known method of household head rates by marital status and family type. The first novelty is the projection of the marital status of people aged under 35, by sex, from 1995 to 2010 using the age-specific first marriage rates for women contained in "Population Projections for Japan, September 1992". In this way, the household projections are related to population projections and reflect the trend towards delaying marriage. The author then foresees an increase in the proportion of households where the head is a married man, based on the Hiroshima cohabitation model and projects these proportions by family type. The outstanding point of this study is that, instead of mechanically extrapolating the parameters of the method of household head rates by marital status and family type, the author enlarges the method in order to base the projection on nuptiality, fertility and cohabitation models which have been developed by the Institute for the Study of Population Problems. (JAPAN, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, METHODOLOGY, HOUSEHOLD)

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