Back to home page
1991 - VOLUME 19, NUMBER 54
Special issue devoted to Dr Raul Prebisch's work on demography, in memory of his contribution for the development of Latin America
1992, VOLUME 20, NUMBER 55
94.21.01 - Spanish - Axel MUNDIGO, WHO, Geneva (Switzerland)
The Role of Family Planning Programmes in the Fertility Transition of Latin America (Los programas de planificacion familiar y su funcion en la transicion de la fecundidad en América Latina) (p. 11-40)
This article traces the origins of fertility changes, of attitudes towards contraception and of lower family size values in Latin America, on the basis of information collected during the 1960s and 1970s on abortion, fertility and contraceptive prevalence. It explores the origins and the role of family planning programmes and suggests that they acted as facilitators of the "mass" transition rather than as the agents that unleashed this process. Earlier studies suggest that by the 1960s "excess fertility" was widespread in most countries of the region, and therefore a real unmet demand for fertility regulation already existed. When the organized family planning programs started, research on abortion conducted in a few countries provided an important economic - as well as health - argument for governments to improve these services, instead of using the scarce financial resources and hospital maternity beds to attend abortion complications. Private initiatives were often small in scale, urban based and semi-experimental in nature, serving a population where the latent demand for contraception was high. Their initial success, the subsequent support received from external funding sources and the general world atmosphere regarding the perception of the problems associated with population growth provided an environment propitious for their rapid expansion. (LATIN AMERICA, FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMMES, HISTORY, FERTILITY DECLINE)
94.21.02 - Spanish - Mary Beth WEINBERGER, Division de la Population, Nations Unies, New York, NY 10017 (U.S.A.)
Changes in the Mix of Contraceptive Methods during Fertility Decline: Latin America and the Caribbean (Cambios en la combinacion de métodos anticonceptivos durante la transicion de la fecundidad: América Latina y el Caribe) (p. 41-78)
This paper reviews survey-based data regarding contraceptive prevalence and methods employed in Latin America and the Caribbean, with an emphasis on changes in the mix of methods over time. The most striking recent trend is the rise in use of female sterilization. In a few populations, as many as 60% of married women in certain age groups have been sterilized. If period rates of sterilization adoption remain as high as in recent years, prevalence of this method will continue to rise, even in countries where sterilization has already reached high levels. By contrast, use of male sterilization remains negligible in most countries. The oral contraceptive pill is by far the most popular of the temporary methods, though its prevalence has more often declined than increased in recent years. Together female sterilization and the pill make up around 2/3 of contraceptive practice in Latin America and the Caribbean. (LATIN AMERICA, CARIBBEAN, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, CONTRACEPTIVE METHODS)
94.21.03 - Spanish - John BONGAARTS, Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017 (U.S.A.), and Robert LIGHTBOURIVE, Division de la Population, Nations Unies, New York, NY 10017 (U.S.A.)
Wanted Fertility in Latin America: Trends and Differentials in Seven Countries (Fecundidad deseada en América Latina: tendencias y diferenciales en siete paises) (p. 79-102)
Changes in wanted fertility over time and accross countries are examined, comparing the total fertility rates with wanted fertility, measured as the New Wanted Fertility Rate developed by Bongaarts (1990). This rate reflects the level of fertility that would prevail if women fully implemented their desires about avoiding additional births. The trends of observed and desired fertility are examined at the national level and by level of education and rural-urban place of residence. The data used comes from fertility surveys carried out during 1975-1989, such as the World Fertility Survey (WFS) and the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). The analysis suggests that the changes in fertility between the dates of the two surveys (the WFS and the DHS) are not due to changes in desired fertility, but mainly to differences in the degree to which fertility is controlled to coincide with desired levels, something consistent with previous findings by Lightbourne (1984) for three Caribbean countries. Another conclusion - perhaps the most significant from a policy standpoint - is that both the WFS and the DHS show that unwanted fertility was significant in all countries, specially in the lower socioeconomic strata. Presumably, this is attributable to a large extent to insufficient access to contraceptives and to inadequacies of some existing methods. (LATIN AMERICA, DESIRED FAMILY SIZE, FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS, FERTILITY TRENDS, FERTILITY SURVEYS)
94.21.04 - Spanish - Luis ROSERO BIXBY, INISA, Universidad de Costa Rica, San José (Costa Rica)
Nuptiality Trends and Fertility Transition in Latin America (Las tendencias de la nupcialidad y la transicion de la fecundidad en América Latina) (p. 103-128)
According to census information, nuptiality has not been an important factor regarding the fertility transition of Latin America as a whole. In some countries, such as the Dominican Republic, nuptiality changes were a significant factor in connection with fertility decline. In others, such as El Salvador however, an increase in the proportion of persons living in consensual union avoided a substantial reduction or fertility. In those countries with conspicuous fertility decrease - for instance Costa Rica, Cuba and Mexico - the contribution of nuptiality was slight, if any. A clearer impact of this factor was observed among adolescents. Variations in the proportion of young people living in consensual union caused an important reduction in adolescent fertility in 8 Latin American countries in the 1960 decade. The standard proportion by age of women in consensual union increased in almost all Latin America during the 5Os, although a regional trend was not observed either in the 60s or the 70s. The nuptiality explosion of the 50s was the result of decreasing regional trends in celibacy and marital separation (probably due to the lesser widowhood) and not the result of a younger age at marriage. During this decade an increase of legal marriages in connection with consensual unions was also observed. Apart from an increment in the number of illegitimate children, the impact of the increase of consensual unions upon fertility is uncertain. No regional trend was observed in connection with age at marriage. This stability suggests that Latin American patterns of marriage are determined by cultural factors rather than socioeconomic reasons. (LATIN AMERICA, FERTILITY TRENDS, NUPTIALITY, TYPES OF MARRIAGE)
94.21.05 - Spanish - Lorenzo MORENO, Mathematical Policy Research, Princeton, NJ (U.S.A.), and Susheela SINGH, The Alan Guttmacher Institute, New York, NY (U.S.A.)
Fertility Decline and Changes in Proximate Determinants in the Latin American and Caribbean Regions (Descenso de la fecundidad y cambios en sus déterminantes proximos en América Latina) (p. 129-160)
The objective of this paper is to discuss the role that three of the proximate determinants of fertility (marriage, contraception and post-partum insusceptibility) have played in fertility change in Latin America and the Caribbean. First we look at issues of data availability and comparability on measures of the proximate determinants from retrospective surveys. Most of the data utilized come from the World Fertility Survey (WFS) and the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) projects. Second, we present results from the most widely applied model for assessing the impact that these proximate determinants have on fertility, that of Bongaarts. For a number of countries for which at least two surveys are available, we compare the pattern of changes in the indices of this model between an earlier period of higher fertility and a later period of lower fertility. We also describe the pattern of changes based on absolute measures of these proximate determinants, and compare these with changes in the Bongaarts indices. These comparisons reveal inconsistencies between the actual measures of the determinants and the indices, which are discussed in the light or recent evaluations of the performance of the method. Finally, we compare the results from the application of the Bongaarts model with those from an alternative method proposed by Moreno. Both models show that increased use of contraception is by far the most important reason for fertility decline, with marriage and post-partum insusceptibility making much smaller contributions. However, the second model suggests that the role of the marriage and post-parturn insusceptibility factors is much smaller than is shown by the Bongaarts model. (LATIN AMERICA, CARIBBEAN, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, MODELS)
94.21.06 - Spanish - Juan CHACKIEL and Susana SCHKOLNIK, CELADE, Casilla 91, Santiago (Chile)
Fertility Transition in Latin America (La transicion de la fecundidad en América Latina) (p. 161-192)
Latin America was a high fertility region during the 1950s and beginning of the 1960s. A transition to lower fertility was observed since then in many countries. There is, however, a great deal of heterogeneity among them: while some countries are in an advanced stage of the fertility transition - some even with fertility rates under the replacement level - others are still at the beginning of this process. In this article fertility behaviour is analyzed between 1950 and 1990, and Latin American countries are classified according to the stages of the transition process. The analysis of fertility decline by age of women indicates that the decrease was more pronounced in women 30 years and over, due principally to a broader access to family planning services. Differences in fertility behaviour by level of urbanization, education and occupation were also analyzed. It is shown that the fertility transition began in the more urbanized areas and middle-high socioeconomic strata. In the last two decades, however, an important decline in fertility is also observed in rural areas and low educational groups in those countries where high socioeconomic groups have already attained low fertility levels. In countries where fertility decline is more recent, this process has already started in urban areas although some show a trend towards stabilization. Declines have not been detected as yet in the rural areas or among the poor in this last set of countries. (LATIN AMERICA, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, FERTILITY TRENDS, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)
1992 - VOLUME 20, NUMBER 56
94.21.07 - Spanish - Maria Eugenia ZAVALA DE COSIO, Université de Paris X, Nanterre (France)
The Demographic Transition in Latin America and in Europe (La transition demografica en América Latina y en Europa) (p. 11-32)
The theory of demographic transition lies in some postulates, among them the anteriority of mortality's decline and entrance in modern economic growth. In Latin America, it applies to some population sectors, the better off, who adopted since the 1960s birth's limitation methods. A reduction in fertility is also observed among the more traditional sectors. The analysis refers to two models of demographic transition in Latin America: the first one looks like the European, and is observed in the population sectors ideologically close to modern reproductive patterns. The other transition is related with family planning programs and female sterilization, and applies to women with traditional reproductive patterns: high, early nuptiality and numerous children. In this conditions, it would be very difficult to continue declining fertility in a significative manner, without important changes in the economic, social and cultural conditions. (LATIN AMERICA, DEMOGRAPHIC TANSITION, THEORETICAL MODELS, REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR)
94.21.08 - Spanish - Jorge H. BRAVO, CELADE, Casilla 91, Santiago (Chile)
Theoretical Views of Fertility Transition in Latin America: What Is the Relevance of a Diffusionist Approach? (Visiones teoricas de la transicion de la fecundidad en América Latina: Qué relevancla tiene un enfoque difusionista?) (p. 33-56)
The relevance of transition theory and the diffusionist approach as explanatory approaches of the fertility transitions in Latin America is reviewed. The discussion suggests that the elements of the standard transition theory appear to be useful, but limited in the explanation of observed declines in the region. The available evidence for the last few decades shows that, in general, aggregate relations between fertility and development indicators have shifted and become less steep over time. Once the trend of fertility decline becomes manifest at the national level, most or all of the major population subgroups reduce their fertility, and do so over a relatively short period of time. However, sustained pre-decline differentials indicate that diffusion has not followed automatically the innovation of fertility control whithin countries, since it appears to have been established in certain subgroups well before the onset of fertility declines. Ideal family size has also declined across the board since the mid-70s. In this context, a diffusionist perspective seems to be useful in the description of a process of spread of both desired and actual fertility declines, where the intra-generational, inter-group modes of spread appear to be important. Nonetheless, the relevance of the diffusionist approach as a truly explanatory model is less evident, given the difficulties of discriminating diffusion from other underlying causes, and of incorporating in a consistent manner the socioeconomic factors that may affect the initiation and speed of the diffusion process. (LATIN AMERICA, FERTILITY DECLINE, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, THEORETICAL MODELS, DIFFUSION OF INNOVATIONS)
94.21.09 - Spanish - German RODRIGUEZ, Princeton University, Pennsylvania (U.S.A.)
The Spacing and Limiting Components of the Fertility Transition in Latin America (Los componentes de espaciamiento y limitacion de la transicion de la fecundidad en América Latina) (p. 57-86)
In this paper we examine trends in marital fertility within categories of three socioeconomic factors: residence, wife's education and husband's occupation, for the six Latin American countries which have participated both in the World Fertility Survey (WFS) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) programs. We use a statistical model of the period marital fertility of individual women which permits a succinct description of levels and patterns of fertility by age and duration of union, and yields estimates of indices of spacing and control. The results document a process of transition which appears to have originated among the urban educated elites and has now reached practically all strata studied. Most of the declines are due to increases in the index of control, although surprisingly spacing has also played an important role. Despite the diversity of conditions in the region, the indices of spacing and control in the different social strata appear to have followed a common path of increase over time, which is shown to be consistent with a simple mathematical model of social diffusion. (LATIN AMERICA, FERTILITY TRENDS, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, BIRTH SPACING, FAMILY PLANNING)
94.21.10 - Spanish - Edith PANTELIDES, CENEP, Buenos Aires (Argentina)
Over a Century of Argentine Fertility: Its Evolution since 1869 (Mas de un siglo de fecundidad en la Argentina: su evolucion desde 1869) (p. 87-106)
This study reviews the process of Argentine fertility descent from a descriptive perspective and with an overarching view. Special attention is paid to the period of initiation of the fertility descent in the years following 1895. Limited by the lack of totally adequate information, an attempt is made to demonstrate that the massive arrival of foreigners coming from countries with lower fertility rates then that prevailing in Argentina had a depressing effect on fertility levels. Additionally, this variable combined with local factors such as the progressive concentration of population in areas of lower fertility (specifically urban areas). The age at marriage, the only indicator among intermediate variables that was able to be calculated, does not seem to have been a decisive factor in the decline of Argentine fertility. Finally, the study ends in the decade of the 1970s, noting the explosion of births, and the conclusion is reached that here one is dealing with a genuine increase of cohort completed fertility. (ARGENTINA, FERTILITY TRENDS, IMMIGRATION, DIFFERENTIAL FETILITY)
94.21.11 - Spanish - José Alberto MAGNO DE CARVALHO, CEDEPLAR, Universidad Federal de Minas Gerais, Rua Curitiba 832, Belo Horizonte (Brazil), and Laura RODRIGUEZ WONG, Department of Epidemiology and Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London (U.K.)
Fertility Transition in Brazil. Causes and Consequences (La transicion de la fecundidad en Brasil. Causas y consecuencias) (p. 107-142)
The study of fertility trends in Brazil (1940-85) reveals that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) dropped from 6.2 to 3.5 during the period. As the decline was initiated during the decade of the 1960s, the fall in level was 45% in 20 years. The tendency is clear. Although it followed the processes of socioeconomic and industrial development and of urbanization, the reduction was most pronounced in two periods: 1970-75 and 1980-85. The first period coincides with what has been called the "Economic Miracle" which was paradoxically accompanied by indicators of a substantial deterioration in the quality of life of the least favored socioeconomic groups. The second period coincides with the international economic crisis of the 1980s, which has disproporsitionately affected Brazil, when compared with other Latin American countries, given that it is more industrialized and involved in the international market. A projection incorporating the recent decline in fertility suggests that since 1980 younger age groups present negative growth rates. It is possible that replacement level will be reached by the year 2000 in urban areas. (BRAZIL, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, URBANIZATION, INDUSTRIALIZATION)
94.21.12 - Spanish - Marta MIER Y TERAN, Instituto de Investigaciones Sociales, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City (Mexico)
Fertility Decline and Female Labour Participation in Mexico (Descenso de la fecundidad y participacion laboral femenina en México) (p. 143-172)
The objective of this paper is to analyse the effect of fertility transition on the increasing female participation in the labour force over the last two decades in Mexico. The first birth cohorts to start fertility decline (1942-1947) are also those who increasingly enter the labour force; most of them start to work after the birth of their last child. Younger birth cohorts as well start to work after they have completed their families, but also increasingly succeed in raising a family and working at the same time. Mothers who have worked before getting married and at early stages of their family formation have high chances to reenter the labour force later in their lives. More recent birth cohorts are expected to work more frequently after marriage and the birth of the first children, as well as after having completed their families, which takes place each time at earlier ages. (MEXICO, FERTILITY DECLINE, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT)
94.21.13 - Spanish - Delicia FERRANDO and Carlos E. ARAMBURU, INANDEP, Lima (Peru)
Fertility Transition in Peru (La transicion de la fecundidad en Peru) (p. 173-198)
The fertility transition in Peru is examined, emphasizing the differences across sociocultural groups. Changes in the level and structure of fertility in the Coastal region, the Mountain Range, and the Jungle are compared. Then, the role of nuptiality and contraception in explaining the fertility decline is discussed. In order to better understand the complexity of factors involved in the practice of contraception, some results of a study on sexuality and attitudes towards contraception of women from three generational groups and three cultural contexts are presented. The main conclusions are: fertility in Peru declined since the late 60s differently across sociocultural groups. This process started in the middle and high class groups of Lima in the decade of the 50s. There are indications that the increase in contraception is the intermediate variable that has the largest weight in explaining the fertility decline. The regional differences in levels are also strongly associated with. the prevalence of contraception. However, the degree of acceptance of modern methods is still modest in many population groups, due to the prevalent negative attitudes toward them. (PERU, FERTILITY DECLINE, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY)
1994 - VOLUME 22, NUMBER 59
94.21.14 - Spanish - Ivonne SZASZ, CEDDU, El Colegio de Mexico, Camino al Ajusco 20, C.P. 01000, Mexico D.F. (Mexico)
Women in Labour and Migration. Female Labour Market between 1950 and 1990 and Female Migration to Santiago, Chile (La mujer en el trabajo y la migracion. El mercado laboral femenino entre 1950 y 1990 y la inmigracion de mujeres a la ciudad de Santiago de Chile) (p. 9-50)
This article examines the relationships between changes in the volume, relative importance and growth rates of female migration to Santiago, and modifications in the structure of the female labour market during the past four decades. It also analyzes changes in the characteristics of occupational insertion of migrants as compared to non-migrant women. Such modernization processes in the living conditions of Chilean women as the increase in schooling levels and the access to contraceptive methods to regulate fertility have contributed to the increase of highly educated non-manual workers in Santiago. However, these processes have not modifier the occupational insertion of migrant women. Activity and occupational characteristics of these women are apparently affected by gender considerations absent from the occupational and income structure of male migrants. Additionally, fluctuations experienced by the rural and semi-rural female labour market, as well as changes in the urban labour market resulting from the different development strategies undertaken in the country, have contributed to define the volume and direction of female migration flows, and the occupational choices of immigrants. (CHILE, WOMEN, LABOUR MARKET, LABOUR MOBILITY)
94.21.15 - Spanish - Reynaldo F. BAJRAJ and Jorge BRAVO, CELADE, Casilla 91, Santiago (Chile)
Economic Adjustment and Demographic Responses in Latin America: An Overview (Una vision sintética del ajuste economico y sus consecuencias demograficas en América Latina) (p. 51-72)
A brief examination is made of the economic changes occurred in Latin America during the last few decades, specially those associated to the adjustment processes during the 1980s. Some conceptual problems and limitations inherent in the study of the relationships between adjustment and demographic variation are recognized, and the available evidence on medium and short term demographic reactions to economic changes is synthesized. The findings suggest that both nuptiality and fertility have responded noticeably to recent economic fluctuations, though no evidence is found on substantial modifications of the medium term trends in celibacy and completed parity. Short run variation in infant mortality and mortality due to selected causes have been very moderate by comparison with those of nuptiality and fertility. Mortality associated to some causes registered larger values in the 1980s than those expected on the basis of past trends. (LATIN AMERICA, FERTILITY TRENDS, MORTALITY TRENDS, ECONOMIC RECESSION)
94.21.16 - Spanish - Rafael ROFMAN, CENEP, Casilla 4397, Correo Cental, 1000 Buenos Aires (Argentina)
Adult Mortality Differentials in Argentina (Diferenciales de mortalidad adulta en Argentina) (p. 73-92)
Little interest has been traditionally placed on the study of adult mortality in developing countries. This is due, on the one hand, to the lack of basic information necessary for the analysis and, on the other, to the relatively greater importance assigned to demographic phenomena which are usually associated to development processes, such as infant mortality and fertility. This article intends to estimate and analyze adult mortality differentials in Argentina, by utilizing data from the National Administration of Social Security. The method used is a combination of the technique known as logistic analysis and the use of models developed by Coale et al. and Coale and Guo. Based on these estimates, life tables by sex, place of residence, pension fund (utilized as an activity indicator) and income were constructed. The paper confirms the consistency between the estimated values and other estimates published and considers the magnitude of differentials. Among the most important findings it was observed that the lowest mortality levels were presented by persons autonomously affiliated to pension funds, who are in general own account workers, independent professionals and small enterprisers. In the same way a strong inverse correlation was found between the probability of dying and the income level. (ARGENTINA, ADULT MORTALITY, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIFFERENTIALS)
94.21.17 - Spanish - Alexia PEYSER and Juan CHACKIEL
The Indigenous Population in the Latin American Censuses (La poblacion indigena en los censos de América Latina) (p. 93-120)
On reviewing the information about the indigenous population in the census data, clear discrepancies can be found. The main problem lies in the various definitions of indigenous population, both at a conceptual level as well as in the operational indicator so as to identify it in censuses and surveys. The greatest difficulty arises from the multiple dimensionality of sociocultural elements which prevents - or partly invalidates - from considering the criteria focusing on only one of these aspects. The above, which applies to the individuals of any population, is even more relevant in the case of the indigenous people, due to the acculturation process in which they live. These indicators might, therefore, quickly become obsolete. As a result, existing estimates on indigenous population for the whole region largely vary and, in most cases, seem to be determined by strong emotions or, at least, based on highly subjective criteria. In spite of the strong criticism about the estimates taken from the population censuses, this source is generally one of the few with a real base. Furthermore, the minimun value they provide could be used as a starting point to carry out important adjustments. (LATIN AMERICA, INDIGENOUS POPULATION, POPULATION CENSUSES, METHODOLOGY)
94.21.18 - Spanish - Alicia BERCOVICH and Felicia MADEIRA
Demographic Discontinuities in Brazil and the State of Sao Paulo (Discontinuidades demograficas en Brasil y el Estado de Sao Paulo) (p. 121-154)
Given the importance of information on the population age structure when planning short, medium and long-term needs within the different social strata, this paper is a proposal to deepen into the study of changes in the population pyramids. The latter may contribute to identify social problems, such as the phenomenon of the "young pot" in Brazil, a demographic situation which will distinguish the age structure of Brazil in the next quinquennium. Based on the most recent methodologies a study of age discontinuities is carried out and a method of follow-up by cohorts is suggested, taking the 15-19 and 20-24 age groups as an example. The purpose is to show that, as a numerous cohort ascends in the age pyramid, new and different necessities arise and also different responses are demanded on the part of the social system. (BRAZIL, POPULATION PYRAMID, SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES, METHODOLOGY)
94.21.19 - Spanish - Susan DE VOS
A Preliminary Demographic View of Change 1970-1980 in Unmarried Mothers 15-49 Heading their Own Households in Brazil (Analisis preliminar acerca de las madres solteras, jefas de hogar, en Brasil durante 1970 y 1980) (p. 155-182)
Female-headed households comprise a substantial proportion of all households in Latin America and the Caribbean, and that proportion tends to be on the rise. This paper reports on an attempt to use census data from Brazil in 1970 and 1980 to investigate a rise in household headship by unmarried mothers 15-49. Unmarried mothers 15-49 headed about one-quarter of all female-headed households in Brazil in 1980. Demographic analysis can be useful in decomposing the change into that due to a changed propensity of women 15-49 years of age to be unmarried, to have children if unmarried, and to head their own household if an unmarried mother. This was further analyzed in terms of age, marital status (whether single, divorced/separated or widowed), region of residence, and urban-rural status. Brazil is a fairly advanced "developing" country and the census data have been considered fairly good. However, the research encountered data problems that make firm conclusions impossible: overall change could be due primarily to an increase in the propensity of unmarried mothers 15-49 years of age to head their own households. There appear to be problems with the ways both marital status and fertility were coded. Still, it is possible to come to some conclusions regarding certain subgroups of women. (BRAZIL, MOTHER, UNMARRIED PERSONS, HEAD OF HOUSEHOLDS, CENSUS DATA)
94.21.20 - Spanish - Ronald D. LEE and Rafael ROFMAN
Modeling and Forecasting Mortality in Chile (Modelacion y proyeccion de la mortalidad en Chile) (p. 183)
In a recent paper, Lee and Carter developed a new method for analysing and forecasting time series of age specific mortality, and applied it tho the U.S. population. In this paper, we extend that method to deal with various problems of incomplete data common in Third World populations, and then apply the method to forecast mortality in Chile. First, we fit a simple model with one time-varying parameter, k, to age-specific death rates in Chile from 1952 to 1987, except for a few years with missing data. Second, we use the model to extend the age detail to younger and older ages by regressing data for selected years on k, and by extrapolating to very old ages using the Coale-Guo method. Third, we reestimate k for all years, including those with missing data, using indirect methods. Fourth, we model k as a time series and forecast it through 2065. Fifth, we derive the implied forecasts death rates and life table functions, with confidence intervals. We forecast that eo will rise from its current level of 72.7 to 84.2 by 2065, with a 95% probability interval of 80.6 to 86.4. (CHILE, MORTALITY RATE, PROJECTIONS, METHODOLOGY MODELS)
Back to home page