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1994 - VOLUME 20, NUMBER 1

94.17.01 - English - Lant H. PRITCHETT, The World Bank (U.S.A.)

Desired Fertility and the Impact of Population Policies (p. 1-56)

90% of the differences across countries in total fertility rates are accounted for solely by differences in women's reported desired fertility. Using desired fertility constructed from both retrospective and prospective questions together with instrumental variables estimation, the article shows that this strong result is affected neither by ex-post rationalization of births nor by the dependence of desired fertility on contraceptive access or cost. Moreover, in spite of the obvious role of contraception as a proximate deterrrlinant of fertility, the additional effect of contraceptive availability or family planning programs on fertility is quantitatively small and explains very little cross-country variation. These empirical results are consistent with theories in which fertility is determined by couples' choices about children within the social, educational, economic, and cultural envirorunent couples, and especially women, face. The results contradict theories that assert a large causal role for expansion of contraceptive use in the reduction of fertility. (FERTILITY TRENDS, DESIRED FAMILY SIZE, CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE)

94.17.02 - English - S. Jay OLSHANSKY, Center on Aging, Health and Society, Department of Medicine, and Population Research Centre, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois (U.S.A.), and Bruce A. CARNES, Center for Mechanistic Biology and Biotechnology, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois (U.S.A.)

Demographic Perspectives on Human Senescence (p. 57-80)

Demographic approaches to modeling and forecasting mortality are often based on the observation of short-term trends in death statistics and the assumption that future mortality will exhibit patterns similar to those of the recent past. This extrapolation method has led some demographers to conclude that life expectancy in the not too remote future will reach 100 years. Similar predictions follow from another demographic model that establishes a hypothetical link between risk factor modification and changes in death rates. These predictions are examined within the context of the observed mortality record of the United States, and their biological plausibility is assessed in light of evolutionary theories of senescence. Results indicate that these demographic models lead to mortality schedules that do not follow from the observed mortality record and that are inconsistent with predictions of biologically based limits to longevity. Although there is probably not a genetic program for death, the biology of our species places inherent limits on human longevity. (LIFE SPAN, SENESCENCE, DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS, FORECASTS)

94.17.03 - English - Caroline H. BLEDSOE, Department of Anthropology, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208 (U.S.A.), Allan G. HILL, Center for Population and Development Studies, Harvard School of Public Health, 665 Huntington Avenue, Boston, Massachusetts 02115-6021 (U.S.A.), Umberto D'ALESSANDRO and Patricia LANGEROCK, Medical Research Council Laboratories (Gambia)

Constructing Natural Fertility: The Use of Western Contraceptive Technologies in Rural Gambia (p. 81-114)

Based on a 1992 survey, this study examines the use of Western and traditional contraceptives in rural Gambia in what appears to be a classic natural fertility population of women with regular birth intervals, strong desires for children, and exceedingly low use rates of Western contraception. The authors find that while women are not trying to reduce fertility, they are seeking to maintain regular birth intervals of around two and a half years through the strategic use of high-technology Western contraceptives. As a result, Western contraception is much more important in shaping patterns of fertility than crosssectional data would suggest because most contraception occurs for spacing purposes, hence practiced for very short slices of time in the birth interval. Questioning some of the key tenets of the natural fertility paradigm, the study shows that women's birth spacing actions are highly intentional and that the kinds of contraceptive strategies they employ vary considerably by parity. (GAMBIA, NATURAL FERTILITY, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, BIRTH SPACING)

94.17.04 - English - Sonalde DESAI, Research Division, the Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017 (U.S.A.), and Devaki JAIN, Institute of Social Studies Trust, New Delhi (India)

Maternal Employment and Changes in Family Dynamics: The Social Context of Women's Work in Rural South India (p. 115-136)

Research on the relationship between maternal nondomestic work and child welfare has identified two mechanisms - a decline in mother's time with children and an increase in her control over resources - through which maternal work influences child welfare, the first in a negative direction, the second in a positive one. Results from a household survey in rural South India suggest a need for grounding this line of research in a wider institutional context. When pervasive poverty and lack of access to modern conveniences are taken into account, mothers who do not work in the market in fact devote much time to domestic activities. Regardless of the type of maternal employment, therefore, most children spend several hours per day in the care of older siblings or grandmothers. Thus, the concern that maternal employment exposes children to inferior forms of alternate care is misplaced. (INDIA, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, CHILD REARING)

94.17.05 - English - Nicholas EBERSTADT, Center for Population and Development Studies, Harvard School of Public Health, 665 Huntington Avenue, Boston, Massachusetts 02115-6021 (U.S.A.)

Demographic Shocks After Communism: Eastern Germany, 1989-93 (p. 137-152)

This note reviews trends in fertility, nuptiality, and mortality between 1989 and 1993 for the population within the territory previously administered by the German Democratic Republic. The momentous political events witnessed in this region during this period (the collapse of the Berlin Wall and downfall of Communist rule; the rapid transition from centrally planned to "social market" economy; the accession through unification into the Federal Republic of Germany) find their counterpart in an upheaval of local demographic trends. During the years in question, Eastern German fertility rates underwent an extraordinary decline. Marriage rates were similarly affected. Perhaps most unexpectedly, age-specific mortality rates for many male and female age groups appear to have risen - this, despite ostensible increases in per capita consumption and improvements in medical services owing to unification. (GERMANY, SOCIAL CHANGE, POPULATION DYNAMICS)

94.17.06 - English - Robin BARLOW, Department of Population Planning and International Health, University of Michigan, Michigan (U.S.A.)

Population Growth and Economic Growth: Some More Correlations (p. 153-166)

Several studies using national data have shown that per capita income growth rates are uncorrelated with population growth rates. These results have been interpreted as supporting the "revisionist" position that slower population growth does not cause faster economic development. In this analysis, which draws on data from 86 countries, lagged fertility is added to the current rate of population growth as a predictor of the per capita income growth rate. The three-variable model shows per capita income growth to be negatively related to current population growth and positively related to lagged fertility. Statistical and economic explanations for this result are examined. Inferences are drawn about the relationship between the demographic transition and economic performance. Some implications for the debate between revisionists and Malthusians are noted. (POPULATION GROWTH, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, MODELS)

1994 - VOLUME 20, NUMBER 2

94.17.07 - English - Vaclav SMIL, Department of Geography, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg (Canada)

How Many People Can the Earth Feed? (p. 255-292)

Many attempts have been made to estimate the carrying capacity of the Earth, but the inherent complexities of nutritional, environmental, agricultural, and economic variables make all ultimate, single-value results questionable. In contrast, a conservative assessment of all important factors limited to a period of two or three generations can provide some revealing perspectives. By far the most important outcome of such an exercise is the identification of substantial inefficiencies throughout the food production and consumption chain. A combination of improved agronomic practices (above all, higher efficiencies of fertilizer and water use), lowered postharvest waste, and healthier eating (mainly reduction of fat intake) could produce adequate nutrition for an additional 3 billion people without any increase in existing inputs. Furthermore, realistic mobilization of new productive inputs could secure enough food for yet another 2 billion people. Consequently, there appear to be no insurmountable obstacles to feeding the global population of about 10 billion people expected by the middle of the 21st century. (WORLD POPULATION, FOOD PRODUCTION)

94.17.08 - English - Valerie KINCADE OPPENHEIMER, Department of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles (U.S.A.)

Women's Rising Employment and the Future of the Family in Industrial Societies (p. 293-342)

The author critically assesses the theoretical and empirical bases of the popular view that marriage is a declining institution in the United States and that this decline is an inevitable concomitant of the growth of women's economic independence in industrial societies. The independence hypothesis has diverted attention from the demographic impact of the substantial deterioration in men's economic position during the past 20 years. Focusing particularly on Becker's specialization and trading model of the gain to marriage, the author investigates several facets of the theory: the historical fit between the major rises in women's employment and trends in marital and fertility behavior; the extent to which the marital behavior observed in recent years matches the marital behavior predicted by the theory; and the degree to which micro-level empirical research supports the theory. The article concludes that both macro- and micro-level evidence for the theory is weak. It suggests that parental sex-role specialization puts nuclear families at risk because there is rarely more than one specialist of each type in a family. Whereas in past times children's work provided a means of maintaining economic homeostasis over the family cycle and improving the family's living levels, this becomes increasingly impractical with industrialization. A more adaptive family strategy is one where the wife works. (UNITED STATES, POPULATION THEORY, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, NUPTIALITY, FERTILITY)

94.17.09 - English - Thomas E. DOW Jr., Department of Sociology, University of New York, Purchase (U.S.A.), Linda ARCHER, Shanyisa KHASIANI and John KEKOVOLE, Population Studies and Research Institute, University of Nairobi, Nairobi (Kenya)

Wealth Flow and Fertility Decline in Rural Kenya, 1981-92 (p. 343-364)

In 1981 and 1992 identical questionnaires measuring lineal and lateral wealth flows and emotional nucleation were administered to comparable samples of male household heads in rural Kenya. The 1981 results, showing limited evidence of economic or emotional nucleation within the household, were consistent with the prevailing high fertility. By 1992, fertility had declined significantly but without a corresponding shift in nucleation levels. Economic and social forces appear to be depressing fertility in a similar way at all levels of nucleation. More specifically, it appears that severe economic constraints have necessitated a redefinition of affordable fertility levels in all subgroups and that a resurgent family planning program has been able to supply the contraceptive means necessary to realize these reduced fertility intentions. (KENYA, RURAL POPULATION, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, FAMILY LIFE CYCLE)

94.17.10 - English - Susan GREENHALGH, Research Division, the Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017 (U.S.A.), Zhu CHUZHU and Li NAN, Population Studies Institute, Xi'an Jiaotong University (China)

Restraining Population Growth in Three Chinese Villages, 1988-93 (p. 365-396)

The latest nationwide survey of Chinese fertility suggests that, after rising during the mid-1980s, fertility has fallen steadily since the late 1980s, reaching replacement level in 1992. Through a re-study of three villages in the northwestern province of Shaanxi, this article explores the politics and economics of this striking demographic development in a locality well known to the authors from previous research. Between 1988 and mid-1993, they find, village fertility fell to new lows due to increased emphasis on birth planning by leaders at all levels and, to a lesser extent, economic advance that reduced already very low childbearing aspirations. This microstudy of three ordinary Chinese villages provides dramatic testimony to the changes that can be wrought at the bottom of the administrative hierarchy when the top leadership decides that rapid population growth must be controlled. (CHINA, FERTILTY DECLINE, ANTINATALIST POLICY)

94.17.11 - English - Tim DYSON, Department of Population Studies, London School of Economics and Political Science, Houghton Street, Aldwych, London WC2A 2AE (U.K.)

Population Growth and Food Production: Recent Global and Regional Trends (p. 397-412)

Considerable anxiety has recently been expressed that world cereal production has failed to keep up with population growth. The author argues that the downturn in global per capita cereal production since 1984 is largely explained by reductions in cereal cropland, especially in traditional grain-exporting countries, conditioned by the low price of cereals on the world market. In the most populous developing regions, cereal output has continued to increase faster than population growth. However, per capita cereal production has declined in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa. Since cereals are only one category of foodstuff, trends in indexes of overall food production are also examined. These indicate that food output in the world and most of its regions continues to increase faster than population growth. Although complacency is inappropriate, recent trends provide no support for the current neo-Malthusian view that average levels of food production per person will deteriorate in the coming years. (WORLD POPULATION, FOOD PRODUCTION)

94.17.12 - English - W. Parker MAULDIN, Research Division, the Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017 (U.S.A.)

Maternal Mortality in Developing Countries: A Comparison of Rates from Two International Compendia (p. 413-422)

The World Bank's World Development Report 1993 and the United Nations Development Programme's Human Development Report 1993 present data on maternal mortality in developing countries for 1988. Although both give as their source the World Health Organization's Maternal Mortality: A Global Factbook, their estimates of maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births differ by as much as 100 points for almost half the countries covered in common. Neither publication offers sufficient explanation in technical notes of how figures were obtained from the multitude of hospital studies, community studies, and civil registration data, among other sources supplied in the WHO publication. Country-by-country comparisons make clear that reliable data on maternal mortality do not exist for most developing countries. (DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, MATERNAL MORTALITY, QUALITY OF DATA)

94.17.13 - English - Lin JIANG, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia (U.S.A.)

Parity and Security: A Simulation Study of Old-Age Support in Rural China (p. 423-448)

The rapid aging of the Chinese population, the consequence of drastic reductions in fertility and mortality in the past few decades, has raised serious doubt about the prospective adequacy of China's family support system for the elderly, especially in the rural areas, where very few elderly enjoy an old-age pension system. Will families alone be able to accommodate increasing burdens of supporting aged parents in the future, especially when the Chinese baby boomers enter retirement ages in the first half of the next century? In answering these questions, this study examines what individual households in rural China will face in meeting their responsibility toward parents. Results of a simulation exercise suggest that although the responsibility of supporting the elderly will increase substantially in the first half of the 21st century, at any given time most rural households will experience only moderately increased burdens of old-age dependency. Thus, a variety of old-age security programs can be implemented to help those families that have the greatest old-age dependency burden, at relatively modest costs to the state. (CHINA, AGED, SOCIAL SECURITY)

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