Back to home page1994 - VOLUME 31, NUMBER 1
94.09.01 - English - Timothy W. GUINNANE, Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520-8269 (U.S.A.), Barbara S. OKUN, Department of Demography, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem (Israel), and James TRUSSELL, Office of Population Research, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544-1021 (U.S.A.)
What Do We Know about the Timing of Fertility Transitions in Europe? (p. 1-20)
The Princeton project on the decline of fertility in Europe (the European Fertility Project) suggested that this historical fertility transition occurred virtually simultaneously in a wide variety of economic and social environments. This finding has been cited widely as evidence for an innovation/diffusion view of fertility transitions. We demonstrate that the demographic methods used to date the fertility transition in Europe - primarily Ig, and (to a lesser extent) the Coale-Trussell M& m indices - may fail to detect the initial stages of a fertility transition and therefore cannot be used as the basis for strong statements about the timing of transitions. We review these measurement problems and their implications for the current understanding of the European fertility transition. (EUROPE, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, FERTILITY, CHRONOLOGY, METHODOLOGY)
94.09.02 - English - Rosemary SANTANA COONEY, Sociology Department, Fordham University, Bronx, NY 10458 (U.S.A.), and Jiali LI, The Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017 (U.S.A.)
Household Registration Type and Compliance with the "One Child" Policy in China, 1979-1988 (p. 21-32)
This research analyzes how type of household registration, which reflects the degree of government control, affects compliance with China's "one child" policy for women at risk during the first decade of implementation. Although socioeconomic and cultural factors have significant effects on four fertility events after first live birth, household registration type is the most important. Furthermore, household registration type interacts with urbanization in such a way that the modernization influence associated with urbanization is more evident for women under less government control. The notable success of China's family planning program is linked to its unique system of government control. (CHINA, ANTINATALIST POLICY, EVALUATION, POLITICAL SYSTEMS)
94.09.03 - English - Paul J. GERTLER and John W. MOLYNEAUX, RAND, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 (U.S.A.)
How Economic Development and Family Planning Programs Combined to Reduce Indonesian Fertility (p. 33-64)
This paper examines the contributions of family planning programs, economic development, and women's status to Indonesian fertility decline from 1982 to 1987. Methodologically we unify seemingly conflicting demographic and economic frameworks into a single "structural" proximate-cause model as well as controlling statistically for the targeted (nonrandom) placement of family planning program inputs. The results are consistent with both frameworks: 75% of the fertility decline resulted from increased contraceptive use, but was induced primarily through economic development and improved education and economic opportunities for females. Even so, the dramatic impact of the changes in demand-side factors (education and economic development) on contraceptive use was possible only because there already existed a highly responsive contraceptive supply delivery system. (INDONESIA, FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMMES, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, FERTILITY DECLINE, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE)
94.09.04 - English - William G. AXINN, Marin E. CLARKBERG, Department of Sociology, Population Research Center, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois (U.S.A.), and Arland THORNTON, Department of Sociology, Institute for Social Research, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (U.S.A.)
Family Influences on Family Size Preferences (p. 65-80)
Several studies have demonstrated important effects of parents' childbearing behavior on their children's childbearing preferences and behavior. The study described here advances our understanding of these family influences by expanding the theoretical model to include parental preferences, siblings' behavior, and changes in children's preferences through early adulthood. Using intergenerational panel data from mothers and their children, we test the effects of both mothers' preferences for their own fertility and mothers' preferences for their children's fertility. Although both types of maternal preferences influence children's childbearing preferences, mothers' preferences for their children's behavior have the stronger and more proximate effects. Mothers' preferences continue to influence their children's preferences through early adulthood; siblings' fertility is an additional determinant of children's family size preferences. (FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, INFLUENCE, DESIRED FAMILY SIZE, GENERATIONS)
94.09.05 - English - Ken R. SMITH and Cathleen D. ZICK, Family and Consumer Studies, 228 AEB, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112 (U.S.A.)
Linked Lives, Dependent Demise? Survival Analysis of Husbands and Wives (p. 81-94)
Past research has found that married individuals have substantially lower risks of mortality than their single counterparts. This paper examines how household characteristics affect spouses' risks of mortality. A paired hazard rate model is estimated and tests are made to ascertain whether the estimated coefficients associated with risk factors differ between husbands' and wives' equations. Cigarette smoking, risk-avoidance behavior, poverty, and children are found to affect wives' and husbands' mortality in similar ways. Divorce, which can be interpreted as the termination of this shared household environment, is found to affect spouses differently. (MORTALITY DETERMINANTS, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, SPOUSES)
94.09.06 - English - Julie DAVANZO and Angelique CHAN, RAND, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 (U.S.A.)
Living Arrangements of Older Malaysians: Who Coresides with Their Adult Children? (p. 95-114)
More than two-thirds of Malaysians age 60 or older coreside with an adult child. Data from the Senior sample of the Second Malaysian Family Life Survey (MFLS-2) are used to investigate which "seniors" (persons age 60 or older) live in this way. The analysis generally supports the notion that coresidence is influenced by the benefits, costs, opportunities, and preferences for coresidence versus separate living arrangements. For example, married seniors are more likely to coreside with adult children when housing costs are greater in their area or when the husband or wife is in poor health. This finding suggests that married parents and children live together to economize on living costs or to receive help with household services. Unmarried seniors who are better off economically are less likely to live with adult children, presumably because they use their higher incomes to "purchase privacy." (MALAYSIA, AGED, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, GENERATIONS)
94.09.07 - English - Barbara A. ANDERSON, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48104 (U.S.A.), Kalev KATUS, Allan PUUR, Estonian Inter-University Population Research Center, P.O. Box 3012, 200090 Tallinn (Estonia), and Brian D. SILVER, Department of Political Science, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan 48824 (U.S.A.)
The Validity of Survey Responses on Abortion: Evidence from Estonia (p. 115-132)
This paper presents results of a validation survey of abortion conducted in Tallinn, Estonia in April and May 1992. The sample was drawn from patient records in a maternity hospital. Women who had an abortion in that hospital in 1991 were asked about recent abortions as part of a survey about women's health. More than 80% of the respondents reported having a recent abortion. Some respondents misreported their abortion as a miscarriage. Moreover, some variation in reporting was associated with respondents' characteristics. Ethnic Estonians were less likely to report their abortion than were Russians, women over age 40 were less likely to report the abortion than younger women, and women who had the abortion late in the first trimester were less likely to report that abortion. There was some evidence that unmarried women were less likely than married women to report their abortion, and that women who had borne three or more children were less likely to report their abortion than women who had borne fewer children. These differences probably stem from the extent to which pregnancy or abortion is considered stigmatizing for women in different situations. (ESTONIA, INDUCED ABORTION, SURVEYS, QUALITY OF DATA)
94.09.08 - English - Nancy S. LANDALE, Population Research Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (U.S.A.)
Migration and the Latino Family: The Union Formation Behavior of Puerto Rican Women (p. 133-158)
This study examines the transition to first union among Puerto Rican women. I argue that understanding the behavior of mainland Puerto Ricans requires attention to family patterns in Puerto Rico and to the dynamics of migration between Puerto Rico and the United States. The study therefore is based on pooled data from comparable surveys undertaken in the two settings. These data allow for event history analyses that compare the union formation behavior of migrants with that of nonmigrants, and consider the role of migration in producing the observed union patterns. Multivariate models show that migrants are more likely than nonmigrants to form unions early and to enter informal unions. Additional analyses show that selective migration plays a role in producing this pattern. Overall the findings demonstrate the importance of using data from both origin and destination locales for understanding the behavior of migrant groups. (PUERTO RICO, UNITED STATES, SPINSTERS, MATE SELECTION, MIGRANTS)
94.09.09 - English - Eileen M. CRIMMINS, Yasuhiko SAITO, Andrus Gerontology Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0191 (U.S.A.), and Mark D. HAYWARD, Department of Sociology and Population Research Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802-6202 (U.S.A.)
Changing Mortality and Morbidity Rates and the Health Status and Life Expectancy of the Older Population (p. 159-175)
This paper demonstrates the consequences of changes in mortality and health transition rates for changes in both health status life expectancy and the prevalence of health problems in the older population. A five-state multistate life table for the mid-1980s provides the baseline for estimating the effect of differing mortality and morbidity schedules. Results show that improving mortality alone implies increases in both the years and the proportion of dependent life; improving morbidity alone reduces both the years and the proportion of dependent life. Improving mortality alone leads to a higher prevalence of dependent individuals in the life table population; improving morbidity alone leads to a lower percentage of individuals with problems in functioning. (AGED, MORTALITY, MORBIDITY, MULTI-STATE LIFE TABLES, HEALTH POLICY)
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