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1992 - VOLUME 11, NUMBER 2

93.88.01 - English - Katharine M. DONATO, Department of Sociology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 (U.S.A.), Jorge DURAND, Centro de Investigaciones sobre los Movimientos Sociales, Universidad de Guadalajara, Guadalajara (Mexico), and Douglas S. MASSEY, Population Research Center, Department of Sociology, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 (U.S.A.)

Changing Conditions in the US Labor Market: Effects of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (p. 93-115)

In this paper, we assess the extent to which the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) of 1986 affected US labor market conditions facing Mexican migrant workers. Using data gathered from migrants in ten Mexican communities, as well as out-migrants from those communities located in the USA, we examined whether and how IRCA affected US wages, hours worked, and the terms of employment. Estimated period effects did not indicate a clear break in most of these variables following IRCA's passage in 1986, except for hours worked and monthly income. Our analyses did reveal a fairly consistent pattern of deterioration in the labor market conditions facing undocumented migrants, however. Compared to illegal migrants working in the USA before IRCA, those migrating afterward worked fewer hours and were less likely to have taxes withheld from their pay. We also found evidence that undocumented migrants were pushed from the agrarian to the urban economy by the increase in labor supply occasioned by the SAW program. (UNITED STATES, LABOUR MARKET, IMMIGRANT WORKERS, ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION, WORKING CONDITIONS, MIGRATION LEGISLATION)

93.88.02 - English - Karen A. WOODROW, Population Division, Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC 20233 (U.S.A.)

A Consideration of the Effect of Immigration Reform on the Number of Undocumented Residents in the United States (p. 117-144)

The volume of immigration to the United States exceeds the amount of immigration to any other nation, but quantification must rely on measurement of population stocks. Comparison of foreign-born population figures for two or more survey dates reveal net immigration but fail to partition the foreign-born population by legal status. This analysis presents national survey data on the foreign-born population in November 1989 for comparison with an independently derived estimate of the legally resident foreign-born population at the same date. The demonstration of a measurable undocumented population residing in the United States is very helpful in evaluating the success of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986. Despite the legalization of 1.7 million aliens who provided evidence of undocumented residence since before 1982, and economic sanctions against employers found to hire undocumented workers, an undocumented population persists in the United States that appears to be largely composed of aliens from Latin American countries. Precise measurement of the size of this population is complicated by the uncertainties surrounding the population of approximately one million Special Agricultural Workers admitted under IRCA. The work and residence history of these aliens as well as their future labor sector experiences and residence patterns are not known. Despite efforts to stop undocumented immigration to the United States, undocumented migration, especially across the southern border, appears to have occurred at consistent levels throughout the past fifteen years. (UNITED STATES, ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION, MIGRATION LEGISLATION)

93.88.03 - English - William A.V. CLARK, Department of Geography, University of California, 405 Hilgard Avenue, Los Angeles, CA 90024 (U.S.A.), and Peter A. MORRISON, Population Research Center, The RAND Corporation, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407 (U.S.A.)

Gauging Hispanic Voting Strength: Paradoxes and Pitfalls (p. 145-156)

How a minority group's demographic presence in a district translates into a presence among the voters in that district is a matter of growing importance to political scientists and courts, This paper examines technical problems in measuring the concentration of Hispanic voting strength among the eligible voters in an election district. We document and analyze several limitations with existing demographic data in localities where a minority has a distinctive citizenship, ethnic, and age makeup. Our findings show how different measurement techniques may distort or clarify one's view of local Hispanic voting strength. County-wide measures of age and citizenship have a generic limitation: using such measures to infer the character of particular county sub-areas may falsely inflate the apparent voting strength of Hispanics. Other specific limitations relate to (1) the use of voting-age population (or self-reported voting-age citizens) in gauging the actual concentration of Hispanic registrants in an area and (2) the definition of 'Hispanic' itself. (UNITED STATES, ETHNIC MINORITIES, POLITICS, METHODOLOGY)

93.88.04 - English - Christopher GARBACZ, Department of Economics, University of Missouri-Rolla, Rolla, MO 65401-0249 (U.S.A.)

Do Front-Seat Belt Laws Put Rear-Seat Passengers at Risk? (p. 157-168)

Cross-sectional economic models of traffic fatalities are estimated to determine the effectiveness of state statutes that require motor vehicle occupants to use seat belts. The estimates provide some support for the theory of offsetting consumer behavior. In the case of primary enforcement front-seat belt laws, models suggest that rear-seat passengers and non-occupants may be killed as a result of more dangerous driving by belted drivers. In the case of secondary enforcement front-seat belt laws, there is no favorable or unfavorable effect that is statistically significant. Models that employ self-reported seat belt usage rites from the Centers for Disease Control suggest an offsetting effect for rear-seat passengers and non-occupants as in the case of the models for primary seat belt laws. (UNITED STATES, CAUSES OF DEATH, LEGISLATION)

93.88.05 - English - Roxane JAMSHIDI, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton (U.S.A.) et al.

Aging in America: Limits to Life Span and Elderly Care Options (p. 169-190)

Expanding longevity among the elderly and fertility decline are contributing to an aging US population. The number of persons 65 years or older is projected to double from about 32 million in 1990 to 66 million by 2030; the elderly proportion is expected to increase from 13 to 22% over the same period. Chronic illness and functional disaibility afflicts a significant proportion of older persons. An estimated 80-85% of people over age 65 have at least one chronic illness, and nearly one-half of older people report that chronic illness limits their activity to some degree. Altogether, about one-third of the population over 65 may need some kind of medical or social assistance. This paper discusses the three primary modes of care available to older persons: (1) the informal network of the family, (2) the more formal arrangements of home and community care, and (3) the institutionalized care of nursing homes. Of particular policy interest are the questions: Who provides the care? What type of care is available? Who receives the care? How much does each type of care cost? and Who pays? The current patterns and costs especially of long-term care provide a framework for planning future options. A discussion of research and policy recommendations concludes the paper. Children's living arrangements in developing countries. (UNITED STATES, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING, AGED, SOCIAL POLICY)

1992 - VOLUME 11, NUMBER 3

93.88.06 - English - Cynthia B. LLOYD and Sonalde DESAI, The Population Council, New York, NY 10017 (U.S.A.)

Children's Living Arrangements in Developing Countries (p. 193-216)

This paper documents the wide variation in living arrangements experienced by children in developing regions using data from 19 Demographic and Health Surveys. The data demonstrate that, in many countries of sub-Saharan Africa and Latin Arnerica as opposed to parts of Asia and North Africa, children spend substantial proportions of their childhood years apart from one or both parents and, by extension, apart from at least some of their siblings. The focus of the paper is on four essential elements of children's living arrangements that influence their access to resources: (1) mother-child co-residence, (2) father-child coresidence, (3) household structure and (4) the number, presence and spacing of siblings. Tle research suggests that significant proportions of young children, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, benefit from the support provided by family members other than their parents. Surprisingly, despite enormous variations between countries in current fertility rates (ranging from roughly 2 to 7 births per woman), children in countries as diverse as Thailand and Mali spend their childhood with no more than 2 to 3 children on average sharing the same household. Thus, childhood as it is experienced in many parts of the developing world has much that is common despite apparent differences and much else that is different despite apparent similarities. (DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, CHILDREN, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION)

93.88.07 - English - Arthur SAKAMOTO, Department of Sociology, and Meichu D. CHEN, Population Research Center, University of Texas, Austin, TX 78712 (U.S.A.)

The Effect of Schooling on Income in Japan (p. 217-232)

This paper uses cross-sectional data from the 1955, 1965, and 1975 Social Stratification and Mobility Surveys to investigate the effect of schooling on personal income in the Japanese male labor force. For each survey, log-income regressions are estimated which include (in addition to controls for years of work experience) two variables to indicate educational attainment: (1) years of schooling completed, and (2) percentile ranking in the distribution of years of schooling for one's age-cohort. The effect of the first educational variable may be interpreted as the human capital effect of schooling. The effect of the second educational variable may be interpreted as the screening or credentialing effect of schooling. The results indicate that controlling for the credentialing effect of schooling significantly reduces the net effect of schooling as human capital. Regression decomposition is then used to ascertain the components of the growth in mean log-income between 1955 and 1975. The contribution of years of schooling to the increase in mean log-income across these decades is significantly reduced after controlling for the credentialing effect. (JAPAN, LEVELS OF EDUCATION, INCOME, LABOUR FORCE)

93.88.08 - English - Lilly M. LANGER, Rick S. ZIMMERMAN, Department of Sociology, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida (U.S.A.), and Ralph McNEAL

Explaining the Association of Race and Ethnicity with the HIV/AIDS-Related Attitudes, Behaviors and Skills of High School Students (p. 233-247)

This study deals with intervening factors such as family composition, religiosity, and HIV/AIDS knowledge in understanding the association of race and ethnicity with HIV/AIDS related attitudes and behaviors. Data represent Wave 1 of a five-month panel design involving 10th grade students in eight public high schools in Dade County (greater Miami) Florida. Significant differences in attitudes and behaviors were found among racial/ethnic groups. The most significant implication of this study is that racial/ethnic differences in sexual behavior can be explained more fully by socio-environmental factors such as family structure or religiosity than by knowledge or attitudes. Thus, interventions directed toward minority populations should focus on the development of alternative social environments that would support more positive behaviors. More specifically, extended family, religious youth groups, and other community organizations should be brought into the HIV/AIDS risk-reduction arena. (UNITED STATES, AIDS, COLLEGE STUDENTS, SEXUAL BEHAVIOUR, ETHNIC MINORITIES)

93.88.09 - English - David G. SOMMERS and Katherine R. ROWELL, Department of Sociology, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio (U.S.A.)

Factors Differentiating Elderly Residential Movers and Nonmovers: A Longitudinal Analysis (p. 249-262)

This paper identifies factors which differentiate elderly residential movers and nonmovers. Longitudinal data were used in the analysis. Logistic regression results showed that length of residency, home ownership, use of community support services, and number of adult children each had an effect on relocation. Respondents who reported longer lengths of residency and those who owned a home were less likely to relocate. Those elders who utilized more community support services were also less likely to move. Conversely, elders with greater numbers of adult children were more likely to relocate. There was not a significant effect of health status on relocation. (UNITED STATES, AGED, INTERNAL MIGRATION, MIGRATION DETERMINANTS)

93.88.10 - English - Roger A. WOJTKIEWICZ, Department of Sociology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803-5411 (U.S.A.)

The Counteracting Influences of Increased Female Headship and Decreased Number of Children on Inequality in Economic Well-Being by Age: 1960 to 1980 (p. 263-279)

This study uses 1960, 1970, and 1980 US Census data to investigate the effects of increased female headship and decreased number of children on economic well-being. The main findings are (1) while increases in female headship lowered economic well-being, decreases in number of children raised economic well-being so that these changes had counteracting effects, and (2) age inequality in economic well-being changed because family composition changes varied in intensity by age group. (UNITED STATES, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD, OWN CHILDREN DATA, STANDARD OF LIVING, AGE GROUPS)

1993 - VOLUME 12, NUMBER 1

93.88.11 - English - Bun SONG LEE, Department of Economics, and Louis G. POL, Department of Marketing, University of Nebraska at Omaha, Omaha, Nebraska (U.S.A.)

The Influence of Rural-Urban Migration on Migrants' Fertility in Korea, Mexico and Cameroon (p. 3-26)

The paper presents a comparative analysis of the relationship between rural-urban migration and fertility in Korea, Mexico, and Cameroon. Using an autoregressive model, the results show a significant rural-urban migration adaptation effect in Korea and Mexico, a reduction of 2.57 and 1.45 children during the entire childbearing period, respectively, when compared to a rural stayer, even after the effect of selection has been controlled. Rural-urban migration has a very small impact on fertility in Cameroon. The unexpected result for Cameroon is due to the fact that the fertility-increasing effect of urban residency on the improved supply conditions of births, such as reduced infertility, offsets the fertility-depressing effect of urban residency on the demand for births. As a result of the adaptation to urban fertility norms, the number of country-wide births was reduced significantly in Mexico and Korea over the time periods studied. (KOREA, MEXICO, CAMEROUN, RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION, FERTILITY DECLINE)

93.88.12 - English - Christin KNUDSEN and Robert McNOWN, Population Program, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado (U.S.A.)

Changing Causes of Death and the Sex Differential in the USA: Recent Trends and Projections (p. 27-41)

This paper examines the sex differential in US life expectancy, the changes in this differential over the past 25 years and into the near future, and the apportionment of these differences among the leading causes of death. Movements in the sex differential over the years 1960-1985 were largely determined by changes in the accidents and violence and heart disease causes of death. The use of the life expectancy measure emphasizes the importance of those causes of death that impact most severely at younger ages, The historical analysis is extended through projections of life expectancies by sex. In the projections increased cancer mortality among males contributes to a widening differential, tempered by greater progress against heart disease for males. (UNITED STATES, LIFE EXPECTANCY, CAUSES OF DEATH, SEX DIFFERENTIALS)

93.88.13 - English - Stanley K. SMITH, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida, Gainsville, Florida (U.S.A.)

Expert Testimony in Adversarial Legal Proceedings: Some Tips for Demographers (p. 43-52)

Many business, political, and personal disputes in the United States are settled only after passing through the nation's judicial or regulatory system. The culmination of this process is frequently a hearing or trial in which the opposing parties argue the merits of the case. Demographic factors play a critical role in many of these disputes and demographers are often called upon to testify in hearings or trials. This article discusses the role of the demographer as expert witness and offers some tips on how to prepare and present expert testimony. The objective is to provide some practical guidance to prospective witnesses which will help them maximize effectiveness and minimize emotional distress when testifying in adversarial legal proceedings. (UNITED STATES, JUSTICE, DEMOGRAPHERS)

93.88.14 - English - Dana DUNN, Department of Sociology, University of Texas, Arlington, TX (U.S.A.)

Gender Inequality in Education and Employment in the Scheduled Castes and Tribes of India (p. 53-70)

The complex stratification systems in India give rise to a multiplicity of social categories which often obscure the relative status of women and men within the more disadvantaged segments of the population. The focus of this study is on the situation of women in scheduled castes and tribes - groups which are referred to as 'weaker sections of people' and granted special safeguards and concessions under the Indian constitution. Women in these underprivileged groups are doubly disadvantaged: their minority group status interacts with India's patriarchal culture to produce deplorable living conditions. Drawing from both ethnographic and statistical sources. The paper presents a descriptive profile of scheduled caste and tribe women's status in Indian society. Using Indian Census data, the study documents extreme degrees of gender inequality among the scheduled groups. Findings indicate that relative to men, women in these groups have far more limited access to both educational and employment resources. This research also suggests that socioeconomic development serves to reduce the disadvantage of scheduled group women relative to men. Among the scheduled groups considered to be more developed according to standard indicators, findings indicate less gender inequality in education and employment. (INDIA, CASTES, SEX DIFFERENTIALS, POVERTY, WOMEN'S STATUS)

93.88.15 - English - Ann OAKES and Elizabeth ALMQUIST

Women in National Legislatures: A Cross-National Test of Macrostructural Gender Theories (p. 71-81)

This study tests macrostructural theories of gender stratification by examining women's representation in national legislatures. Political structural variables are combined with the variables suggested by the propositions of Janet Chafetz and Rae Blumberg. Both developed and developing nations are represented in the data set of 73 countries. The most important finding for theory is that women's rate of labor force participation is a powerful predictor of women's political status. (WOMEN'S STATUS, PARLIAMENT, DEMOCRACY)

1993 - VOLUME 12, NUMBER 2

93.88.16 - English - F. Nii-Amoo DODOO, Tulane University, New Orleans, Luisiana (U.S.A.)

A Couple Analysis of Micro-Level Supply/Demand Factors in Fertility Regulation (p. 93-101)

Demographic research in developing countries has traditionally neglected the role of male input into reproductive decision making. This has contributed significantly to the general inability to resolve the fertility problem in sub-Saharan Africa. The principal aim of this study is to apply a joint- or couple-model to the analysis of one such population problem in order to illustrate the potential avenues that emerge when the input of male spouses is considered. The 1988 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey is used to examine the need for supply- and demand-side policy in achieving fertility declines. The data indicate that, although there is some evidence of the benefit of family planning programs, it appears that there is much room for further success. Also, there is a strong indication that the demand-side of the fertility equation must be addressed more, by tackling the issue of individual motivations, particularly of males, for childbearing. (GHANA, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, COUPLE, FAMILY PLANNING POLICY)

93.88.17 - English - Ezekiel KALIPENI, Department of Geography, Colgate University, Hamilton, NY (U.S.A.), and Eliya M. ZULU, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (U.S.A.)

Gender Differences in Knowledge and Attitudes Toward Modern and Traditional Methods of Child Spacing in Malawi (p. 103-121)

This paper examines male-female differences in knowledge and attitudes towards traditional and modern methods of child spacing in Malawi, based on the survey on traditional methods of child spacing in Malawi which was conducted in 1988. The results show that most people in Malawi are knowledgeable about both traditional and modern methods of child spacing. In general more men than women report knowledge and practice of traditional methods. For modern methods, however, females are more knowledgeable than males of all the specific methods, with the exception of condoms. The greater knowledge by women of female-based modern contraceptives appears to be a manifestation of the exclusion of males from the family planning program. The high rates of knowledge do not translate into equivalent high rates of utilization for both modern and traditional methods of contraception. The study further demonstrates that, while women are involved in making decisions to use contraception, the proportion of men initiating such decisions is greater than that of women. This finding calls for family planning planners to think seriously about revising their target population to include men. (MALAWI, SEX DIFFERENTIALS, KNOWLEDGE OF CONTRACEPTIVES, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE)

93.88.18 - English - Cynthia REXROAT, Memphis State Univeristy, Memphis, Tennessee (U.S.A.)

Race, Work, and Welfare: Attitudes Toward the Required Employment of Young Mothers Who Use Welfare (p. 123-138)

This study examines the views of blacks and whites toward the required employment of mothers who have young children and who use welfare. Using national data survey collected in 1988, attitudes toward these women are analyzed as a function of sociodemographic characteristics and various measures of inequality-related beliefs. Findings indicate that blacks are more likely than whites to agree that mothers using welfare should work in exchange for their benefits, although neither racial group overwhelmingly approves of such an exchange. Further, black attitudes are influenced more by economic self interest and other sociodemographic attributes than by stratification beliefs and the perceived consequences of welfare, the reverse is true for whites. The policy implications of these and other results for research on policy attitudes are discussed. (UNITED STATES, OPINION SURVEYS, SOCIAL SECURITY, SOCIAL POLICY, BLACKS, WHITES)

93.88.19 - English - Min ZHOU, Department of Sociology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803-5411 (U.S.A.)

Underemployment and Economic Disparities among Minority Groups (p. 139-157)

This article examines the interracial/ethnic differences in the United States in labor force positions among Puerto Ricans, blacks, Mexicans, Cubans, Chinese, and Japanese. The analysis is based on the Labor Utilization Framework developed by Hauser, Sullivan, Clogg, and others and the 1980 US Census data. Our results show that these minority groups differ in the ways in which they are utilized in the labor force and that differential economic consequences are associated with interracial/ethnic differences in labor force utilization. In general, over 40% of the members of each of the minority groups are underemployed in the labor market in one way or another, though the ways in which they are underemployed vary. In particular, blacks and Puerto Ricans are hardest hit by labor force nonparticipation and by high rates of sub-unemployment and unemployment. Mexicans do not seem to be particularly hard hit by joblessness, but they fall disproportionately in categories of partial or low-wage employment. Chinese are most disadvantaged in adequate employment, but this disadvantage seems to be offset by high rates of low-wage employment and occupational mismatch. Cubans and Japanese have a relatively higher rate of adequate employment than other groups, and, at the same time, they manage to bypass the disadvantages of joblessness through occupational mismatch. These patterns of interracial/ethnic disparities persist in the labor market even after controlling for education and age. Another significant finding is that some forms of underemployment offer fewer disadvantages than others. Occupational mismatch, for example, may be an effective way to bring about substantial positive economic consequences. (UNITED STATES, UNDEREMPLOYMENT, ETHNIC MINORITIES)

93.88.20 - English - K. NAVANEETHAM, Centre for Development Studies, Ullor, Trivandrum (India)

The Influence of Cohort Effects on Mortality Trends in India: Role of Economic Factors (p. 159-176)

The inferences drawn from this study are as follows: The stagnation/increase in mortality rates of adult ages in the recent years in India as well as for the major states may be attributed to food shortages and price hikes experienced in the country during 1960-74. In other words, all those who were adults during 1980s had experienced the crisis of hunger due to nonavailability of food as well as entitlement failure during their childhood. These persons would have had higher risk of dying in their life time and that may be one of the main reasons for the stagnation or increase in adult mortality in India and in most of the states. The findings of the study suggest that, the economic crisis experienced in India during the late 80s, may decrease the survival chances of those born during this period in their future life time. However, successful containment of increase in food prices during the period of crisis would be helpful in protecting the entitlement of vulnerable groups. The policy implication of the study is that it is essential to control the prices of food during the time of food shortages and or economic crisis and even in the period when food is available, measures should be undertaken to evolve efficient distribution system ensuring the supply of food to those vulnerable groups, who were unlucky to be born or were in infancy during the period of economic crisis. Thus, essentially this is a study in interaction of economic factors and demographic trends in an economy where large segments of the population are periodically subject to heightened food insecurities, compression of real wages and entitlement failures. (INDIA, ADULT MORTALITY, MORTALITY INCREASE, GENERATION EFFECT, FOOD SHORTAGE)

1993 - VOLUME 12, NUMBER 3

93.88.21 - English - Thomas J. ESPENSHADE, Office of Population Research, Princeton University, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ (U.S.A.), and Charles A. CALHOUN, Population Studies Center, The Urban Institute, Washington, DC (U.S.A.)

An Analysis of Public Opinion Toward Undocumented Immigration (p. 189-224)

Public opinion toward illegal migration to the United States varies considerably across different segments of the population, but little is known about why some individuals hold more liberal attitudes than others. Several hypotheses are scattered throughout the research literatur but they have not been brought together in one place and tested using a common data set. Nor have the limited tests been satisfactory from a methodological standpoint. Instead of using multiple regression, typically analysts have relied on cross-tabulations of the data. This paper tests five hypotheses about attitudes toward illegal immigration and undocumented migrant using public opinion data from southern California. Only weak support is found for a labor market competition hypothesis. There is firmer evidence for hypotheses relating to culture affinity between respondents and undocumented migrants and to the role of education. Respondents' evaluations of tangible costs and benefits to themselves also influence their assessments of illegal immigration. Finally, the results of this analysis provide additional support for a symbolic politics model of opinion formation when the model is extended to the issue of undocumented migration to the United States. (UNITED STATES, ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION, PUBLIC OPINION)

93.88.22 - English - Thomas STRUBHAAR, University of the Armed Forces, Hamburg (Germany), and Klaus F. ZIMMERMANN, SELAPO, University of Munich, Munich (Germany)

Towards a European Migration Policy (p. 225-241)

The stagnating West European population combined with the prosperous economic development of the European Community (EC) generate strong economic incentives for immigration. The drastic political changes in Eastern Europe have caused additional migration pressures. There are a variety of problems with the economic and political integration of migrants, however. The paper argues that immigration can compensate for demographic losses due to the decline and ageing of the European labor force. Economic theory further predicts welfare gains from free factor movements, which should be reaped as long as social costs and adjustment costs are not prohibitive. An active European migration policy is recommended to achieve this aim. (EUROPE, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, MIGRATION POLICY)

93.88.23 - English - James VENEY and Pamina GORBACH, The Evaluation Project, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-39976 (U.S.A.), and Robert MAGNANI, Tulane University, New Orleans, Luisiana (U.S.A.)

Measurement of the Quality of Family Planning Services (p. 243-259)

The quality of health services is a subject of increasing interest to health care providers and organizations responsible for financing and promoting health services. The importance of the client's perspective (and by inference, the perspective of potential clients, as well) is now well established, but efforts to define and measure quality have thus far been limited to the perspective of experts even when the experts claim to speak for the clients. In this paper we utilize family planning programs to explore issues of the quality of health services. We propose that a better understanding of the view of quality actually held by family planning program clients will clarify the influence of quality on the use of services, a clarity that has not been possible by looking at quality only as defined by providers, managers or experts. We review the literature on quality of services and identify the gaps in research that must be filled if a better understanding of what quality is and how it relates to service outcomes is to be obtained. A first step must be the research required to develop a set of measures of quality that reflects the multi-dimensional nature of quality, includes the clients' view of services in the definition of quality, and incorporates methodologies required to ascertain the true view of clients. Finally, we suggest that dimensions of quality identified as important for 'clients' as a group will be more predictive of use of services than dimensions identified as important to 'providers'. (PROGRAMME EVALUATION, HEALTH SERVICES, FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMMES, CLIENTS)

93.88.24 - English - William P. O'HARE, Center for Urban and Economic Research, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40292 (U.S.A.)

Assessing Post-census State Poverty Estimates (p. 261-275)

While the decennial census provides poverty figures for states and other subnational geographic units every ten years, their utility declines over the course of a decade. Consequently, there is growing interest in producing post-census estimates for a variety of indicators. This study extends recent efforts to estimate post-census poverty figures for states by producing such estimates using a multiple regression approach. The accuracy of the multiple regression estimates along with recently produced estimates from the Current Population Survey (CPS) are evaluated relative to the decennial census. The mean absolute percentage point error (MAPPE) using the ratio-correlation technique (1.56 percentage points) was somewhat higher than the MAPPE of 1989 CPS (1.37 percentage points) and an average of 1988-1990 CPS data (1.15 percentage points). However, a simple regression technique using data from 1979 to estimate poverty in 1989 produced a set of estimates where the MAPPE (1.37 percentage points) is nearly as accurate as the single-year CPS estimates. Estimates which average regression estimates and CPS-based estimates are more accurate than either regression or CPS estimates used alone. Several suggestions are offered for improving regression estimates. (UNITED STATES, POVERTY, POST-CENSAL ESTIMATES, DATA EVALUATION, METHODOLOGY)

93.88.25 - English - Jiali LI, Research Division, The Population Council, New York, NY 10017 (U.S.A.), and Rosemary SANTANA COONEY, Sociology Department, Fordham University, Bronx, NY (U.S.A.)

Son Preference and the One Child Policy in China: 1979-1988 (p. 277-296)

Using data from the Two-Per-Thousand National Fertility Survey, this research analyzes how son preference, a deep-rooted cultural norm for more than two thousand years, affects compliance with China's one child population policy for women at risk during the period of 1979 to 1988. Four events after the first live birth are used to evaluate compliance with the policy: (1) certificate acceptance (an indicator of future fertility intention); (2) the use of contraceptives (an indicator of intention to prevent a subsequent pregnancy); (3) the occurrence of a pregnancy subsequent to the first live birth (a potential violation of the one child policy), and (4) among those pregnant, the likelihood of an abortion (an indicator of compliance by preventing a second live birth). It is found that son preference is still prevalent in China. Although the effect of son preference is not the most important, urbanization, education, and occupation have not fundamentally changed its influence on women's compliance. In addition, the effect of son preference on the compliance is not altered by government control. Preference for sons continues to be a factor discouraging the compliance with the one child policy. (CHINA, SEX PREFERENCE, POPULATION POLICY)

93.88.26 - English - Edward CRENSHAW and Ansari AMEEN, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio (U.S.A.)

Dimensions of Social Inequality in the Third World: A Cross-National Analysis of Income Inequality and Mortality Decline (p. 297-313)

This cross-national assessment of the empirical determinants of income inequality and infant mortality employs policy-relevant variables suggested by the major macrosocial theories of development and stratification. Findings based on sample sizes ranging from 34 to 61 LDCs indicate that modernization and ecological-evolutionary theories provide more consistent explanations of social inequalities than either dependency/world-systems theory or urban bias theory. Our analyses point to economic growth and the development of rural infrastructure and social complexity as the most expedient methods for facilitating mortality reduction and income equalization. We conclude that simplistic policy-orientations stressing such phenomena as urban bias or population growth should be replaced by more complex perspectives that include an emphasis on rural social organization. (DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, POVERTY, MORTALITY, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS, THEORY)

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