Back to home pageSPRING 1991 - VOLUME 57, NUMERO 1
93.63.01 - English - Nathan KEYFITZ, 1580 Massachusetts Av., Apt. 7C, Cambridge, MA 02138 (U.S.A.)
Population and Development Within the Ecosphere: One View of the Literature (p. 5-22)
Contemporary academic economists, unlike those of the 19th century, find that although population growth and density can have bad effects on development, these will only be severe with wrong economic policies. Technical advance and substitution in free markets avoid major difficulties, for example shortage of materials. But ecologists see the poor cutting trees for firewood, the rich pouring carbon into the atmosphere, and doubt the capacity of the environment to absorb the effects of dense and growing populations and their present technologies. On both sides are distinguished scholars, whose writings cannot here be covered exhaustively, but only enough said for background to the question posed to demographers: Should this central population issue not be on our research agendas? (ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, POPULATION DENSITY, POPULATION GROWTH, ENVIRONMENT, DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH)
FALL 1991 - VOLUME 57, NUMBER 3
93.63.02 - English - Kenneth HILL, The Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205 (U.S.A.)
Approaches to the Measurement of Childhood Mortality: A Comparative Review (p. 368-382)
In the developing world, measures of child mortality are needed for a variety of purposes, and estimates of child mortality can be obtained by a variety of approaches. In this paper, the author reviews the characteristics that child mortality measures should have for particular purposes, and then examines the available measurement approaches to determine the extent to which they provide accurate measures with the required characteristics. Particular emphasis is put on the comparative performance of different approaches in different settings to produce estimates of recent levels and trends in child mortality. He concludes that no single approach can satisfy all measurement purposes and that all approaches are sensitive to the quality of data collection, but that many needs can be met by relatively inexpensive data collection and analysis methods. (DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, MORTALITY MEASUREMENT, INFANT MORTALITY, METHODOLOGY)
WINTER 1991 - VOLUME 57, NUMBER 4
93.63.03 - English - Ian M. TIMÆUS, Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT (R.U.)
Measurement of Adult Mortality in Less Developed Countries: A Comparative Review (p. 552-568)
This paper compares the direct and indirect methods used to measure adult mortality in the developing world. No other approach can substitute fully for accurate and complete vital registration, but in many countries it is unrealistic to expect the registration system to cover the majority of the population in the foreseeable future. In these countries attempts to use the system as a source of statistical data should probably be abandoned. The difficulties involved in measuring adult mortality using surveys and other ad hoc inquiries are discussed. Even though the problems are greater than those encountered in measuring child mortality, information can be collected that is of value for planning and forecasting. While the choice of methods must depend on each country's situation, direct questions require very large samples and are unreliable in single-round inquiries. On the other hand, although indirect methods provide less detailed and up-to-date information than is ideal, they are adequate for many practical purposes. In particular, the experience of the 1980s suggests that questions about orphanhood perform better than earlier assessments indicated, and recent methodological developments have circumvented some of the limitations of the indirect approach. (DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, MORTALITY MEASUREMENT, ADULT MORTALITY, METHODOLOGY)
SPRING 1992 - VOLUME 58, NUMBER 1
93.63.04 - English - Robert SCHOEN and Young J. KIM, The Johns Hopkins University, Department of Population Dynamics, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205 (U.S.A.)
Covariances, Roots, and the Dynamics of Age-Specific Growth (p. 4-17)
Regularities in age-specific growth rates are explored over age and time, with regard to age-aggregated summary measures and with respect to the spectral decomposition of a population. Using a new approach to the differentiation of population functions, changes in many crude rates are shown to reflect the covariance between age patterns of demographic behavior and age-specific growth. For example, the marginal change in the crude birth rate is simply the covariance between the age-specific schedules of fertility and growth, indicating that the birth rate increases to the extent that ages with higher fertility experience greater growth. Age-specific growth is an important demographic variable because of its ability to relate observed changes to mathematical models of population dynamics. (MATHEMATICAL DEMOGRAPHY, AGE DISTRIBUTION, POPULATION GROWTH, CRUDE RATE)
SUMMER 1992 - VOLUME 58, NUMBER 2
93.63.05 - English - Irma T. ELO and Samuel H. PRESTON, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298 (U.S.A.)
Effects of Early-Life Conditions on Adult Mortality: A Review (p. 186-212)
This paper considers the effects of health conditions in childhood on an individual's mortality risks as an adult. It examines epidemiologic evidence on some of the major mechanisms expected to create a linkage between childhood and adult mortality and reviews demographic and epidemiologic studies for evidence of the hypothesized linkages. The circumstances under which health conditions in childhood can be expected to influence adult mortality include disease processes associated with respiratory tuberculosis, hepatitis B and cirrhosis/liver cancer, rheumatic heart disease, and respiratory infections/bronchitis. Other potential mechanisms include persistent viruses, dietary practices, and the burden of infectious diseases in childhood. Many empirical studies support the notion that childhood conditions play a major role in adult mortality, but only in the case of respiratory tuberculosis has the demographic importance of a specific mechanism been established by cohort studies. One's date and place of birth also appear to be persistently associated with risks of adult death in a wide variety of circumstances. An individual's height, perhaps the single best indicator of nutritional and disease environment in childhood, has recently been linked to adult mortality, especially from cardiovascular diseases. Further research is needed, however, before causal mechanisms can be identified. (ADULT MORTALITY, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS, CHILDHOOD, HEALTH)
FALL 1992 - VOLUME 58, NUMBER 3
93.63.06 - English - Eric S. ROTHMAN and Thomas J. ESPENSHADE, Princeton University, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091 (U.S.A.)
Fiscal Impacts of Immigration to the United States (p. 381-415)
The purpose of this paper is to fill a gap in the demographic literature by reviewing previous fiscal studies of immigration in the United States. Each study is introduced by describing the data it uses, the methodologies employed in calculating costs and revenues, and the resulting estimates of fiscal consequences. Evaluative comments are also stressed. Seventeen studies are included in this review, divided into those that emphasize national fiscal impacts (these studies aggregate the effects of immigrants across all levels of government), state fiscal impacts, and fiscal effects on local governments. (UNITED STATES, IMMIGRATION, TAXATION, RESEARCH)
WINTER 1992 - VOLUME 58, NUMBER 4
93.63.07 - English - Christine L. HIMES and Clifford C. CLOGG, Population Research Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, PA 16802 (U.S.A.)
An Overview of Demographic Analysis as a Method for Evaluating Census Coverage in the United States (p. 587-607)
Since the 1950 US census, demographic methods based on the fundamental balancing equation of demography have played an important role in the evaluation of the census net undercount. Application of this set of methods, called demographic analysis, results in national estimates of the net undercount for age-race-sex groups. Although results of demographic analysis are readily available in Bureau of the Census publications, the procedures used to estimate each of the components of population change are less well-known. In this paper we review the historical foundation of demographic analysis, beginning with Coale's 1950 census evaluation project and concluding with the recent evaluation of the 1990 census. We examine each of the components of the method, how their estimation has changed over time, and how they were estimated for the 1990 census. (UNITED STATES, POPULATION CENSUSES, UNDERENUMERATION, DEMOGRAPHIC ACCOUNTING)
FALL 1993 - VOLUME 59, NUMBER 3
93.63.08 - English - Julie DA VANZO and M. Omar RAHMAN, RAND, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 (U.S.A.)
American Families: Trends and Correlates (p. 350-386)
This paper reviews demographic trends in marriage, divorce, fertility, and labor force participation that have dramatically affected the structure of families in the United States in the last four decades. We summarize what is known about the determinants of these trends, the interrelations among them, and their consequences for women, men, and children. Increases in divorce and nonmarital childbearing have led to a considerable increase in the number of children living in single-parent (usually female-headed) households. The purported consequences of living in such families (or of having a teenage mother) tend to be overstated if one does not take into account the selectivity of those who become single mothers (or teenage mothers). Another important trend affecting families is the dramatic increase in the proportion of women, at all stages of family formation, who work outside their homes. This has led to some changes in roles within the household and appears to be an important correlate of many of the other demographic trends reviewed herein. (UNITED STATES, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, ONE-PARENT FAMILY, LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION)
WINTER 1993 - VOLUME 59, NUMBER 4
93.63.09 - English - Julie DA VANZO, M. Omar RAHMAN and Kul T. WADHWA, RAND, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 (U.S.A.)
American Families: Policy Issues (p. 547-566)
Increases in the number of children living in single-parent (usually female-headed) households and in the proportion of mothers who work outside their homes have raised concern in the United States about the effects of these trends on the well-being of children and the possible need for policy intervention. This paper discusses the arguments for and against policies that affect families. We review a number of such policies and what research suggests about their likely effects. The policies discussed herein include those concerning child support, welfare, income taxes, child and dependent care, family leave, family planning, programs to improve parenting skills and family function, and economic growth. (UNITED STATES, GOVERNMENT POLICY, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, ONE-PARENT FAMILY, LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION)
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