Back to home page

United Kingdom (London) 58

POPULATION STUDIES

MARCH 1993 - VOLUME 47, NUMBER 1

93.58.10 - English - Michael ANDERSON, Department of Economic and Social History, William Robertson Building, George Square, Edinburgh EH8 9JY (Scotland), and Donald J. MORSE, University of Edinburgh Data Library, University Library, George Square, Edinburg EH8 9LJ (Scotland)

High Fertility, High Emigration, Low Nuptiality: Adjustment Processes in Scotland's Demographic Experience, 1861-1914. Part I (p. 5-25)

This paper, which is published in two parts, explores the interrelationships between nuptiality, marital fertility, and migration in Scotland during the later 19th and early 20th centuries. In Part I, the pervasiveness and persistence of the differences between demographic experiences in Scotland and England is explored. Though overall fertility was roughly the same, across most of the country nuptiality was significantly lower in Scotland than in England, and marital fertility was markedly higher. Population growth in Scotland was slower mainly because loss of population through migration was so widespread. Within Scotland, regional contrasts were very apparent and these are shown at parish level by maps of population change for 1861-1911, of population loss through migration for 1861-1871, and of Im and Ig for years centred on 1881, 1901, and 1911. In Part II of the paper (published in the next issue), explanations are offered for these regional differences and also for the marked contrasts between the demographic experiences of England and Scotland in this period. (SCOTLAND, ENGLAND, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY)

93.58.11 - English - Nicky HART, Department of Sociology, University of California, Hilgard Avenue, Los Angeles, CA 90024 (U.S.A.)

Famine, Maternal Nutrition and Infant Mortality: A Re-Examination of the Dutch Hunger Winter (p. 27-46)

During the Dutch Hunger Winter (1945), a unique, documented example of mass famine in an industrialized population, total reproductive loss (fetal and infant mortality) among most exposed mothers remained relatively low. This is explained by highly favourable fetal mortality and unfavourable infant mortality. The author traces the pattern of low fetal mortality to the higher levels of "embodied health status" of famine mothers. The high infant mortality of the famine area testifies to the severity of the food and fuel shortage, yet another factor held down the rate of stillbirth. This other factor, it is argued, has a socioeconomic character, it is the intrinsic "embodied" nutritional status of the regional population, arising from favourable opportunities for growth and development among successive generations of mothers. This explanation highlights the importance of maternal vitality, (a synthetic, historically variable and culturally determined phenomenon) as a neglected feature of historical demography. (NETHERLANDS, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, FOOD SHORTAGE, FOETAL DEATH, INFANT MORTALITY, MATERNAL AND CHILD HEALTH)

93.58.12 - English - Timothy B. GAGE, Department of Anthropology and Department of Epidemiology, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12222 (U.S.A.)

The Decline of Mortality in England and Wales 1861 to 1964: Decomposition by Cause of Death and Component of Mortality (p. 47-66)

The decline in mortality in England and Wales, between 1861 and 1964 is analysed, using competing-hazard models. These methods provide greater specificity concerning the potential biases due to misdiagnosis, and facilitate the examination of temporal shifts in the age-patterns of mortality. The results provide a number of insights into the historical decline of mortality that were not previously available. First, misclassification of causes of death as ill-defined conditions in historical data is not limited to the diseases of ageing, as has typically been assumed. The degenerative diseases have probably emerged as the most frequently misclassified causes of death only during recent times. Secondly, the unusual age distribution of deaths considered to be characteristic of the influenza epidemic of 1918-19 appeared more than ten years earlier and lasted for more than ten years after the pandemic. This suggests that this age-pattern of deaths was not a characteristic of the Swine influenza virus itself, and that some alternative hypothesis for the shift in age-patterns of death is needed. Thirdly, the analysis of the decline in deaths from tuberculosis indicates that the cohort model of the shifts in age-patterns of this cause of death is inconsistent with the dynamics of this cause of death before 1921. Fourthly, the age-patterns of mortality of influenza, pneumonia and bronchitis, tuberculosis, and one or more of the degenerative diseases are temporally correlated. Thus, the trends in mortality from influenza may have played a predominant role in determining the timing and rate of decline in a number of other causes of death, as well as in determining the age-pattern of the historical decline in mortality. Finally, the analyses of the degenerative diseases as a group indicate that these causes of death have not increased as a result of modern lifestyles, although there is evidence of shifts in deaths among the degenerative diseases. In general, these estimates of the timing, rate and age-pattern of the historical decline in mortality are more consistent with the trends in mortality observed by epidemiologists over the last 20 to 30 years than previous analyses of the historical decline in mortality. This overall finding suggests that the current trends in mortality are much older than is typically supposed. (ENGLAND, WALES, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, MORTALITY DECLINE, CAUSES OF DEATH)

93.58.13 - English - Daniel C. CLAY and Jane E. VANDER HAAR, Department of Sociology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan 48824 (U.S.A.)

Patterns of Intergenerational Support and Childbearing in the Third World (p. 67-83)

Three prominent themes in fertility research - the old-age security hypothesis, the social mobility hypothesis, and wealth-flows theory are based on the notion that parents in Third-World settings often maintain a high level of childbearing in order to improve their own social and economic well-being. Using data from 1,019 farm households in Rwanda, we provide an empirical test of this "anthropological assumption" as it pertains to the contributions that departed children make to their parental households. Analysis confirms that children are, in fact, of considerable economic value for their parents, but also shows that such intergenerational support is conditioned by other variables, such as the number of children still living within the household, the distance between households, and individual characteristics of parents and their children. (RWANDA, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, VALUE OF CHILDREN)

93.58.14 - English - Alaka MALWADE BASU, Institute of Economic Growth, University Enclave, Delhi 110 007 (India)

Cultural Influences on the Timing of First Births in India: Large Differences that Add up to Little Difference (p. 85-95)

In this paper I comment on the unexpected finding from primary and secondary data that, although the age at effective marriage is significantly lower in North India compared to the southern part of the country, mother's age at first birth is very similar in both regions. That is, the first birth interval is much longer in the North. Standard socioeconomic and biological reasons for this difference are found to provide incomplete and unsatisfactory explanations - instead, the longer first birth interval in North India is explained in terms of the marriage and kinship patterns in this area which lead to (i) lower frequency of intercourse, and (ii) long periods of abstinence when the wife visits her parental home. Both these factors operate primarily during the first years of marriage and result in a convergence of the ages at first birth in the two regions. The argument, therefore, questions the correctness of policy prescriptions which equate early marriage with an early start of childbearing, and seek to control the latter by changing the former. (INDIA, AGE AT MARRIAGE, FIRST BIRTH INTERVAL, CULTURE)

93.58.15 - English - Andrew D. FOSTER, Economics Department, University of Pennsylvania, Philadephia, Pennsylvania (U.S.A.)

Household Partition in Rural Bangladesh (p. 97-114)

Although household partition is generally thought to be an event with significant behavioural implications in rural South Asia, little is known about the underlying determinants of household partition, or the extent to which partitioned households tend to operate as a single economic and social unit. In this paper the author uses longitudinal data collected in rural Bangladesh to provide a number of new insights into the process of household partition. There are three main parts to the paper. The first consists of a descriptive analysis of household structure which indicates that partition is an important determinant of household structure in this population, particularly for young couples in the early stages of family formation. Secondly, a procedure is developed for the analysis of household partition, which makes use of data on relationship to head of household. A multivariate analysis of household partition is then used to evaluate a number of new and existing hypotheses about the relationship between economic and demographic characteristics and the probability of household partition. One result that is of particular interest is that presence of daughters of a non-head increased the probability of partition significantly, but that of sons does not. Thirdly, data on the educational attainment of children are used to provide an indirect measure of the extent to which recently partitioned households continued to operate as a single economic and social unit. Although partitioned households remained in close proximity, they exhibited significant independence with regard to decisions about the educational attainment of children, something that is not apparent in jointly-resident sub-households. (BANGLADESH, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, SEPARATION, RURAL ENVIRONMENT)

93.58.16 - English - Cynthia B. LLOYD and Anastasia GAGE-BRANDON, The Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017 (U.S.A.)

Women's Role in Maintaining Households: Family Welfare and Sexual Inequality in Ghana (p. 115-131)

Over the last 30 years in Ghana, the proportion of households headed by women has increased and the composition of these households has shifted, with a growing percentage of households headed by the divorced and widowed. The paper assesses the implications of these trends for family welfare, and evaluates more broadly the current role of women in the economic maintenance of households with children, using data from the Ghana Living Standards Survey. The consumption levels of household members are highest in households in which women play a primary role in the provision of cash earnings either in partnership with their husbands, or as the primary cash providers. In all types of household, women work, on average, longer hours than men, but the differences between the sexes are greatest when men and women co-reside, and least when they do not. Access to resources from an economically committed male is found to be important to the welfare of female-headed households, which made up roughly 30% of all households in Ghana in 1987/88. Because the majority of households in Ghana are maintained by the economic contribution of more than one member, headship often presents a misleading picture of the overall division of economic responsibilities within households. (GHANA, HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, WOMEN'S ROLE)

93.58.17 - English - James GRIBBLE, Committee on Population, National Research Council, 2101 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20418 (U.S.A.)

Birth Intervals, Gestational Age, and Low Birth Weight: Are the Relations Confounded? (p. 133-146)

Regardless of whether low birth weight (2500 grammes or less at birth) is caused by intra-uterine growth retardation or pre-term birth, the condition remains one of the strongest predictors of neonatal and infant mortality. Using data from 2,234 post partum women in two hospitals belonging to the Mexican Social Security Institute, this study examines the relationship between birth intervals and low birth weight. The analysis controls for a number of potentially confounding factors, including mother's age and physical characteristics, outcome of previous pregnancy, and gestational age. The results indicate that although gestational age is a significant predictor, it has very little effect on the relationship between birth intervals and low birth weight. A birth interval 90% below one year is associated with an increase in the odds of low birth weight, and an interval of 13 to 21 months is associated with an increase of 65%. (MEXICO, BIRTH WEIGHT, DURATION OF PREGNANCY, BIRTH INTERVALS)

93.58.18 - English - Luis ROSERO-BIXBY, Instituto de Investigaciones en Salud (INISA), Universidad de Costa Rica, San José (Costa Rica), and John B. CASTERLINE, Department of Sociology, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (U.S.A.)

Modelling Diffusion Effects in Fertility Transition (147-167)

In this article we use a simple mathematical model to study the implications for fertility transition of the diffusion of birth-control practices through social interaction. The model proposed is dynamic and deterministic. The simulations demonstrate that interaction diffusion can make potentially large contributions to fertility declines. These contributions tend to be larger under more restrictive demand and supply conditions and, not surprisingly, in populations characterized by higher levels of social interaction about reproduction. Moreover, if social interaction is intense enough, fertility differentials fade away and fertility change resembles an imitation process. A direct implication of the model, clearly illustrated by the simulations, is that reduction in birth control costs can stimulate greater demand for birth control. The simulations also illustrate the effects of geographical and social distances on fertility differentials, the pace of fertility transition, and the timing of the onset of transition. The strength of social interaction diffusion is heavily conditioned by two sets of factors, which thus assume great significance as determinants of the course of fertility transition: the development of communication and transport networks, and the patterns of customary social interaction permitted by the social structure. (FERTILITY DECLINE, DIFFUSION OF INNOVATIONS)

JULY 1993 - VOLUME 47, NUMBER 2

93.58.19 - English - Robert WOODS, Graduate Programme in Population Studies, University of Liverpool, Liverpool (U.K.)

On the Historical Relationship between Infant and Adult Mortality (p. 195-219)

The changing relationship between infant, early childhood and adult mortality under conditions where life expectancy at birth is very low is considered in this paper. The feasibility of predicting life expectancy at birth from the infant mortality rate, and conversely, is discussed by considering the circumstances under which infant, early childhood, and adult mortality may vary independently of one another. The implications of using the Princeton regional model life tables in circumstances where adult mortality must be used to estimate infant mortality (East Asia) and infant mortality to judge adult mortality (European populations) are discussed. Attention is also given to the nature of distinctive cause-specific age-at-death patterns, and the effects they may have on the balance between infant and early childhood mortality during the historical epidemiological transition. The paper concludes by outlining some of the implications for research on mortality levels in contemporary Third-World populations, especially the debate over the relative influence of medical intervention and socioeconomic development. (HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, INFANT MORTALITY, YOUTH MORTALITY, ADULT MORTALITY, METHODOLOGY)

93.58.20 - English - Michael MURPHY, Division of Population Studies, London School of Economics, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE (U.K.)

The Contraceptive Pill and Female Employment as Factors in Fertility Change in Britain 1963-80: A Challenge to the Conventional View (p. 221-243)

A proximate determinants approach is taken to the analysis of fertility in Britain during the period around 1960 to 1980. It is concluded that the main determinant of fertility change in the mid-1960s to mid-1970s was the diffusion of the oral contraceptive pill. Evidence is presented that pill use was determined largely by contraceptive considerations, rather than by other remote socioeconomic factors. In particular, changes in pill use due to 'pill scares' are shown to be clearly and directly related to subsequent substantial short-term fertility changes in 1971 and around 1978. A series that reflects annual changes in pill use is included in the conventional "new home economics" econometric model, and it is shown to fit observed fertility trends better than economic series. It is concluded that demographic considerations, such as contraceptive use, are necessary for a proper understanding of post-war fertility trends, and that approaches which ignore them may be potentially misleading. (UNITED KINGDOM, FERTILITY DECLINE, ORAL CONTRACEPTIVES, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)

93.58.21 - English - Jim OEPPEN, ESRC Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure (U.K.)

Back Projection and Inverse Projection: Members of a Wider Class of Constrained Projection Models (p. 245-267)

Constrained by estimated population totals and observed totals of births and deaths, estimates of age-structures from inverse projection have been widely used in historical demography. Back Projection attempted, by using hypothetical constraints on net migration, to estimate the population totals as well, and has been used to derive "censuses" for England from 1541 to 1871. A wider formulation, called Generalised Inverse Projection, is proposed in this paper, which replaces back-projection and establishes its relation to Inverse Projection more clearly. Under the same assumptions as back projection, but using the new method, the estimates for England are virtually unchanged. This new method is capable of performing population projections, subject to a wide variety of hypothetical and empirical constraints, for contemporary as well as historical data. (ENGLAND, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, METHODOLOGY, BACKWARD PROJECTION)

93.58.22 - English - Gillian R. BENTLEY, Department of Anthropology, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois 60208 (U.S.A.), Tony GOLDBERG and Grazyna JASIENSKA, Department of Anthropology, Harvard University, Peabody Museum, Cambridge, MA 02138 (U.S.A.)

The Fertility of Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Traditional Societies (p. 269-281)

A comparison of demographic data from a sample of traditional, natural-fertility societies demonstrates that the mean total fertility of populations which practise intensive agriculture is significantly higher than that of foragers and horticulturalists. These findings support the association that demographers and economists have long maintained between the intensification of subsistence technology and increases in human fertility. This higher fertility probably results from changes in nutritional status, marriage patterns, and breastfeeding practices that frequently accompany subsistence intensification. A fuller explanation of these fertility differentials, however, will require the collection of further high-quality microdemographic data from a variety of traditional societies. (TRADITIONAL SOCIETY, AGRICULTURAL POPULATION, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, NATURAL FERTILITY, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE)

93.58.23 - English - Vijayendra RAO, Population Research Center, University of Chicago, 1155 E. 60th Street, Chicago, IL 60637 (U.S.A.)

Dowry "Inflation" in Rural India: A Statistical Investigation (p. 283-293)

Dowries in most regions of South Asia have steadily become larger over the last 40 years, causing widespread destitution among families with daughters to be married. This paper attempts to investigate the reasons behind dowry "inflation" with data on marriage transactions and other individual and household information from six villages in southcentral India, and from the Indian census. It is found that a "marriage squeeze" caused by population growth which resulted in a surplus of younger women in the marriage market, has played an important role in the increase in dowries. Other factors that increase the size of dowries include differences in the landholdings of the parental households, and residence in regions in the more northerly parts of India. (INDIA, RURAL ENVIRONMENT, DOWRY)

93.58.24 - English - Dov FRIEDLANDER and Carole FELDMANN Department of Demography, The Hebrew University, Jerusalem (Israel)

The Modern Shift to Below-Replacement Fertility: Has Israel's Population Joined the Process? (p. 295-306)

Fertility has declined to below replacement levels in many of the modern industrialized countries during the last three decades. This decline has been explained by various modern socioeconomic characteristics, such as the change in women's status, their increased participation in non-familial activities, modern consumption patterns, and increasing costs of raising "quality" children. The Jewish population of Israel is a modern society with such characteristics. Yet, total fertility in Israel during the 1980s was at least one child higher than in most European countries. It is shown that social heterogeneity makes this an over-simplified comparison. Indeed, it is the high fertility of the orthodox population among the two major ethnic groups, combined with the decline towards below-replacement fertility of the non-orthodox, which produces the high mean fertility of the entire population. While during the 1950s and 1960s the major explanations of fertility variation were concerned with ethnicity and socioeconomic status, these were replaced by religiosity in the 1970s and the 1980s. (ISRAEL, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY, JEWS, SOCIAL DIFFERENTIATION, RELIGIOSITY)

93.58.25 - English - Bali RAM and Abdur RAHIM, Demography Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6 (Canada)

Enduring Effects of Women's Early Employment Experiences on Child-Spacing: The Canadian Evidence (p. 307-317)

child-spacing among Canadian women, with data from the 1984 Family History Survey conducted by Statistics Canada. The analyses, based on life-table and proportional hazards models, show that longer and less interrupted early work experiences are associated with longer birth intervals, and that these effects tend to persist throughout the childbearing years. The study further shows that these effects are greater on the third birth interval than on the second, and that they are more pronounced among highly educated than among less educated women. (CANADA, AGE AT ENTRY INTO LABOUR FORCE, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, BIRTH INTERVALS)

93.58.26 - English - Michael ANDERSON, Department of Economic and Social History, William Robertson Building, George Square, Edinburgh EH8 9JY (U.K.), and Donald J. MORSE, University of Edinburgh Data Library, University Library, George Square, Edinburgh EH8 9LJ (U.K.)

High Fertility, High Emigration, Low Nuptiality: Adjustment Processes in Scotland's Demographic Experience, 1861-1914. Part II (p. 319-343)

In Part I of this paper (published in the previous issue) we outlined the major contrasts in demographic experience between almost all areas of Scotland and most of England during the later 19th and early 20th centuries. We also demonstrated the existence of significant regional differences within Scotland. In Part II, interpretations are offered for these various contrasts in experience. Four Scottish regional case studies are examined, each of which shows a different combination of nuptiality, marital fertility and out-migration. In studying each case, stress is laid on the ways in which the prevailing demographic regime, if it is examined as an interrelated whole, can be seen as involving highly appropriate adjustments to the ecological, economic, and institutional contexts of the region. In this approach, "innovation" aspects of the fertility decline are therefore played down; instead, for some parts of the country in particular, continued very high fertility among those who married is seen as a highly rational response to particular local social and economic situations which also encouraged very low nuptiality, and moderate or high levels of out-migration. The much lower nuptiality in Scotland compared to England is explained in part by reference to constraints on access to housing and the very limited availability of any support from the Poor Law, and in part through limited economic opportunities in a more slowly growing economy. (SCOTLAND, ENGLAND, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY, POULATION THEORY)

93.58.27 - English - John CLELAND, Department of Medical Demography, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medecine, London (U.K.)

Equity, Security and Fertility: A Reaction to Thomas (p. 345-352)

This paper assesses recent arguments that sustained fertility decline cannot occur in circumstances of inequality, insecurity, and injustice. Naturally, these conditions are to be abhorred. However, the empirical record suggests that none of them acts as an absolute barrier to mass adoption of birth control and subsequent fertility decline. Recent trends in Bangladesh illustrate this point most vividly. One of the greatest fallacies of many fertility theories has been the assumption that there is an economic or social imperative in underdeveloped countries for couples to have many children. To the contrary, the historic norm for all societies has been an average of only about two surviving children per woman, implying an adaptation to low, not high, net fertility. (POPULATION THEORY, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)

93.58.28 - English - Neil THOMAS, Sir David Owen Population Centre, University of Wales, Cardiff CF1 3EU (U.K.)

Economic Security, Culture and Fertility: A Reply to Cleland (p. 353-359)

In this comment, John Cleland's rejection of the importance of economic security to fertility is challenged on the grounds that he gives insufficient attention to the components of Mead Cain's theory. Superficial regard for the full meaning of insurance, and almost total neglect of the environment of risk, lead to misinterpretation of economic and demographic data. Thus, historical trends in fertility and security in Taiwan and South Korea fall to support Cleland's view. Likewise recent fertility decline in Bangladesh is easily accommodated within the economic security-fertility theory. Cleland's use of data on fertility differentials by occupation in Bangladesh is criticised on both statistical and theoretical grounds. The innovation and diffusion of family planning as an explanation of fertility decline is seen as entirely inadequate. Instead, as in the theories of Caldwell and Cain, economic processes must be understood in cultural contexts which reflect the complexity of the real world. (POPULATION THEORY, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)

NOVEMBER 1993 - VOLUME 47, NUMBER 3

93.58.29 - English - Sumit GUHA, 38 Oxford Apts., 11, Patparganj, Delhi 110 092 (India)

Nutrition, Sanitation, Hygiene, and the Likelihood of Death: The British Army in India c. 1870-1920 (p. 385-402)

This paper studies the health experience of British soldiers and their families in India between 1870 and 1920 in the light of the major controversies about the beginnings of the health transition. It finds that while death rates began to decline as the result of the introduction of better environmental sanitation during the last three decades of the 19th century, health education and personal hygiene had a much more dramatic effect during the first decade of the 20th. It concludes by showing that, despite all the care and attention bestowed on their health, death rates of British and Indian soldiers around 1910 were a good deal higher than those of ordinary Indians of the same age and sex during the 1970s and 1980s. (INDIA, UNITED KINGDOM, HISTORY, MILITARY PERSONNEL, EPIDEMIOLOGY, MORTALITY, HYGIENE)

93.58.30 - English - Michael BRACHER, Gigi SANTOW, S. Philip MORGAN and James TRUSSELL, Health Transition Centre, The Australian National Univeristy, GPO Box 4, Canberra, ACT 2601 (Australia)

Marriage Dissolution in Australia: Models and Explanations (p. 403-426)

Interest in rising rates of marriage dissolution has been accompanied by curiosity concerning structural as well as temporal predictors of dissolution. Many factors may play a part: characteristics of the bride and groom; the circumstances surrounding the marriage, such as the length of periods of previous cohabitation; and situational factors within the marriage, such as the births of children and wives' employment. We examine the association between these factors and marriage dissolution, and use event-history data from a nationally representative sample survey of Australian women. The risk of marriage dissolution increased dramatically over the lives of our respondents. Year of birth, and age at marriage provide the most parsimonious characterization of the temporal correlates of marriage dissolution. Characteristics that were fixed by the time of marriage provide additional explanatory leverage. However, the most potent predictors of marriage dissolution are related to characteristics of the unfolding marriage itself; namely, patterns of employment, home-ownership, and region of residence. (AUSTRALIA, DISSOLUTION OF MARRIAGE, EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS)

93.58.31 - English - Paul L. MENCHIK

Economic Status as a Determinant of Mortality Among Black and White Older Men: Does Poverty Kill? (p. 427-436)

The evidence presented in this paper shows that differential mortality by economic status is strongly present in the United States today, and that this relationship is monotonic, with men's death rates being lower among the wealthier. Also, the greater the number of spells of poverty, the higher the death rate. These data suggest that differential mortality rates by economic status are being confused with the well-known ethnic differences in mortality. An implication of this paper, therefore, is that ethnic differences in mortality are, in large part, a consequence of poverty or permanent low income, as opposed to genotype. Consequently, it may be just as valid, or even more so, to publish mortality tables by income as by race. A policy implication of this paper is that the redistributive effects of longevity-based transfer systems, such as social security (Public pensions), may be less 'progressive' than has been assumed, since would-be poorer recipients are either less likely to live long enough to collect any benefits in the first place, or will not live to collect them for as long as more affluent recipients. In addition, I have failed to find a direct effect of schooling on probability of survival. Hence, the beneficial effect of schooling on longevity must work through its effect upon income, with only the latter directly influencing mortality risks. (UNITED STATES, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIFFERENTIAL)

93.58.32 - English - J. BONGAARTS

The Supply-Demand Framework for the Determinants of Fertility: An Alternative Implementation (p. 437-456)

Easterlin's supply-demand framework for the determinants of fertility is widely accepted because it has brought conceptual clarity to the study of factors that underlie the childbearing process. This model has not, however, succeeded in quantifying the fertility determinants in a convenient and generally accepted manner. The variant of Easterlin's model presented in this paper aims to remove obstacles to empirical implementation. In addition to quantifying the supply and demand factors, a new variable, the degree of preference implementation, is introduced to measure the role of costs and benefits of fertility regulation. Applications of this alternative method, to data from surveys in 18 less developed countries indicate that recent declines in fertility have largely been due to reductions in the demand for births, and to increases in preference implementation. Changes in the supply of births appear to have played only a minor role. (DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, MODELS, SUPPLY AND DEMAND)

93.58.33 - English - Mark R. MONTGOMERY and John B. CASTERLINE

The Diffusion of Fertility Control in Taiwan: Evidence from Pooled Cross-Section Time-Series Models (p. 457-480)

This article assesses whether Taiwan's rapid fertility transition over the period 1960-1980 was facilitated by interpersonal diffusion. Annual data on some 361 areal units are available; these support the estimation of dynamic fixed-effect models of marital fertility. The statistical models take aim at the principal empirical prediction of diffusion hypotheses: the implication of autoregressive behaviour in fertility. We test for autoregressive effects over time within areas, and also for spatial effects whereby fertility control in one geographical area has a spillover influence on another. The Taiwanese data produce clear evidence in support of within-area diffusion. The evidence for cross-area diffusion is much weaker; there is surprisingly little suggestion of city-to-country diffusion. The estimates imply that interpersonal diffusion amplified the impact of Taiwan's family planning programme on fertility. (TAIWAN, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, FAMILY PLANNING, DIFFUSION OF INNOVATIONS, DYNAMIC MODELS)

93.58.34 - English - W. G. AXINN

The Effects of Children's Schooling on Fertility Limitation (p. 481-494)

Many theories of fertility predict that mass education reduces fertility, but this effect may be produced in a variety of ways. In this paper, microdemographic data from a rural community in Nepal, in which the spread of mass education and fertility limitation is just beginning, are used to examine these links. The analyses contrast the influence of parents' and children's educational experiences on parents' fertility preferences and behaviour. The results indicate that children's schooling has a strong influence on both fertility preferences and behaviour. The effects of parental schooling are weaker, and also inconsistent in different models. These findings provide support for theories that link mass education to the onset of fertility limitation through children's schooling experience. (NEPAL, FAMILY PLANNING, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, MASS EDUCATION)

93.58.35 - English - Guang GUO and Laurence M. GRUMMER-STRAWN

Child Mortality Among Twins in Less Developed Countries (p. 495-510)

Although twins constitute only about 2.4% of total births in less developed countries, they account for about 12% of neonatal deaths and about 9% of infant deaths. Twin mortality in less developed countries has almost never been analysed systematically. We examine survival among twins as contrasted with that among singleton births by using 2692 twin observations pooled from 26 standardized Demographic and Health Surveys. Weakened by gestational and other biological complications, twins seem to be more vulnerable to detrimental demographic and household socioeconomic influences than singletons. Twinning tends to amplify, or at least retain, whatever group differences exist among singleton births. (DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, TWINS, INFANT MORTALITY, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY)

93.58.36 - English - Arild SAETHER

Otto Diderich Lütken - 40 Years Before Malthus? (p. 511-518)

In 1758, an article containing the view that resources limit population growth was published in Copenhagen. This paper gives a short presentation of the author Otto Diderich Lütken's life and literary production. His radical views on the question of population are given, and a comparison is made with the theories of Thomas Robert Malthus. A brief account of his views on other economic issues is also presented. The literature concerning his writings is reviewed. A discussion of who influenced him, and of his influence on others, ends this paper. (MALTHUSIAN THEORY, HISTORY)

93.58.37 - English - Philip KREAGER

Histories of Demography: A Review Article (p. 519-539)

During recent years historians and philosophers of science have given increased attention to the early development of population analysis, particularly its place in the emergence of modern concepts of probability during the 17th and 18th centuries. In this article, three central works from this scholarly literature are selected for extended review. Their interest for demography lies not only in what they have to say about its history but in the examples they provide of different ways in which the history of demography can be written. Three fundamental questions are considered: What was the role of population mathematics in the origins of probability? What was its relationship to the contemporary mathematical scene? And what can the history of population arithmetic tell us about the way analytical methods in social mathematics arise? (HISTORY, DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS)

Back to home page