Back to home page1992, VOLUME 9, NUMBER 2
93.41.01 - English - Martin BELL, Applied Population Research Unit, Department of Geographical Sciences and Planning, The University of Queensland, Queensland 4068 (Australia)
Projections and Forecasts in Australia: The Context
Despite the considerable expansion of demographic projection activity in Australia over the past two decades, comparatively little of this work has found its way into the academic literature. This issue of the Journal attempts to address this deficiency by bringing together six distinctive contributions on various aspects of demographic projections and forecasting. The present introductory paper describes the context of this work and provides an overview of the papers which follow. (AUSTRALIA, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, POPULATION FORECASTS)
93.41.02 - English - Abbas Y. ADAM, Demography Section, Australian Bureau of Statistics, P.O. Box 10, Belconnen, ACT 2616 (Australia)
The ABS Population Projections: Overview and Evaluation
The paper provides a brief history of the ABS projection services in the context of its role as the central statistical agency in Australia. It also presents an overview of the methodology used for generating the projections and details the procedures used for compiling the various components of change incorporated in the projections. The accuracy of the ABS past projections is assessed by comparing their results, both at the national and state/territory levels, with corresponding estimated resident population figures. The paper also describes the range of projection services currently provided by the ABS, lists present unmet needs and indicates some of the developments likely to occur in the future in satisfying unmet demand, consolidation of existing services and dissemination of output. (AUSTRALIA, INSTITUTES OF STATISTICS, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, POPULATION FORECASTS)
93.41.03 - English - Peter DAVENPORT, Telecom Spatial Decision Systems, Locked Bag 27, Box Hill, Victoria 3128 (Australia), and John O'LEARY, Department of the Treasury, 1 Treasury Place, Melbourne, Victoria 3000 (Australia)
The Victorian Population Projection Framework
The Victorian Department of the Treasury has responsibility for preparation of demographic forecasts for use by state government departments and agencies. This paper provides a detailed description of the projection system and models developed by Treasury to produce population and household forecasts for the state, statistical divisions and statistical Local Areas of Victoria. Particular emphasis is given to use of a "tops down" approach to integrate projections at different geographic levels, methods of reconciling forecasts of household growth with land supply and techniques used to project inter-SLA migration flows in a multi-regional cohort-component framework. (AUSTRALIA, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, POPULATION FORECASTS, METHODOLOGY)
93.41.04 - English - D.S. IRONMONGER and C.W. LLOYD-SMITH, Household Research Unit, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic 3052 (Australia)
Projections of Households and Household Populations by Household Size Propensities
This paper describes a method for constructing projections of numbers of households of various types and the numbers of people in that structure. The method uses the concept of household size propensity, that is the probability that a person of given age and sex resides in a household of size a, c, where a is the number of adults per household and c is number of children per household. Using data from the 1981 and 1986 Censuses and population projections to the year 2011, the method produces projections of Australian households and household populations by size of household for five-year intervals from 1991 to 2011. (AUSTRALIA, PROJECTIONS, HOUSEHOLD SIZE, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION)
93.41.05 - English - Keith SPICER, Ian DIAMOND and Maire NI BHROLCHAIN, Department of Social Statistics, University of Southampton, Southampton SO9 5NH (U.K.)
Simulating the Effect of Demographic Events on the Household Composition
The aim of this paper is to measure the effects on household composition of changes in demographic events, e.g. mortality, fertility, marriage, divorce. British household data are taken from the General Household Survey and aged by simulation to 2001 using a "Most Likely" model. Subsequently different assumptions of each demographic event are taken from 1991 so that the effects of perturbations within each event can be studied. Special features of the simulation model are the differentiations between cohabitation and marriage and separation and divorce, and the detailed breakdowns of household types such as lone parents into single and previously married women and men with children aged 0-4, 5-15 and 16 and over. (UNITED KINGDOM, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, PROJECTIONS, SIMULATION)
93.41.06 - English - E.M. WEBSTER, Bureau of Immigration Research, P.O. Box 659, Carlton South, Victoria 3053 (Australia)
Labour Market Forecasting in Australia: The Science of the Art
Since 1987 nearly 50 labour market forecasts have been undertaken in Australia to assist decisions relating to government policy and budget, investment and career planning. More than 20 of these forecasts have been disaggregated by age, occupation, industry or regional labour markets. One of the chief aims of disaggregated forecasts is to help policy makers avoid future shortages or surpluses of skilled labour. A survey encompassing government departments, private research institutes and banks was undertaken to overview recent labour market forecasting exercises in Australia. This paper, which attempts to summarize these efforts, also discusses the main advantages and disadvantages of each major type of forecasting technique. Methods employed have ranged from anticipatory surveys to data-intensive input-output models. Formal evaluation of labour market forecasts requires considerable resources and no known assessments have been conducted in Australia to date. It is unclear how significant disaggregated labour market forecasts have been in guiding the allocation of funds between competing education and training courses. Nevertheless, governments eager to avoid future shortages and surpluses of skilled labour, but less enthusiastic about forecasting, could aim to make the labour market more flexible and responsive instead. Like forecasting, however, the effectiveness of this approach has yet to be scrutinized. (AUSTRALIA, PROJECTIONS, LABOUR MARKET, METHODOLOGY, EVALUATION)
93.41.07 - English - Martin BELL and Jim SKINNER, Applied Population Research Unit, Department of Geographical Sciences and Planning, The University of Queensland, Queensland 4068 (Australia)
Forecast Accuracy of Australian Subnational Population Projections
Despite the considerable resources devoted to making demographic projections in Australia over the past two decades, there have been few attempts to evaluate the performance of these projections in terms of forecast accuracy. This paper first considers the role of accuracy amongst other objectives of projection activity. Accepting accuracy as a legitimate goal, we then assess the performance of 48 sets of population projections and forecasts for states and territories of Australia prepared since 1970. Projection accuracy is assessed by reference to length of forecast horizon, population size and rate of growth. We also examine the main sources of forecast error in selected projections for each state and compare the performance of past projections with alternatives based on simple extrapolation of contemporary population trends. (AUSTRALIA, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, EVALUATION)
1993 - VOLUME 10, NUMBER 1
93.41.08 - English - Gavin W. JONES, Demography Program, Research School of Social Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200 (Australia)
Is Demographic Uniformity Inevitable?
Globalizing processes of industrialization and Westernization are creating a retreat from diversity in human experience. The paper discusses whether population trends are reinforcing this process and draws on findings about growth rates, the family and urbanization in Western countries, East and Southeast Asia and Latin America. The extent to which counterbalancing forces, including cultural resilience, are curbing homogenization is also examined. (WORLD, INDUSTRIALIZATION, CULTURE)
93.41.09 - English - Peter KARMEL, Institute of the Arts, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200 (Australia)
How Much Education?
The paper examines trends in participation in higher education in Australia since the 1960s and key issues for the future provision of education. New developments, especially increases in the skill requirements of jobs and the decline in full-time employment opportunities for the young, have influenced trends during this period and have brought participation to a level that is high both in an historical context and in comparison with other countries. The paper discusses these developments and then focuses on the questions of whether there is a "proper" level of participation, whether we should plan for a continuation of the upward trend in participation and the role of the Commonwealth Government in determining the quantum of enrolments. (AUSTRALIA, HIGHER EDUCATION, SCHOOL ATTENDANCE)
93.41.10 - English - S. K. JAIN, Australian Bureau of Statistics, P.O. Box 10, Belconnen, ACT 2616 (Australia)
Morbidity and Multi-Morbidity in Australia: Evidence from the National Health Surveys
This paper examines the prevalence of reported morbidity in Australia during the two time periods 1977-78 and 1989-90. It utilizes data from the National Health Surveys conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in the respective years. Prevalence of reported multi-morbidity is also examined for persons who reported one or more of ten specific long-term conditions in the 1989-90 survey. The study found that the prevalence of morbidity increased in Australia between the survey years, which occurred, as in some other low-mortality countries, along with mortality reduction over this period. Females reported higher morbidity than males but the sex differential narrowed over time. The Aboriginal population had lower morbidity than the total population of Australia but the difference was not statistically significant. For some specific conditions, prevalence of morbidity was higher for the Aboriginal population. Capital city dwellers in the states had higher prevalence of morbidity than non-capital city dwellers. The Australian Capital Territory had the highest and the Northern Territory the lowest prevalence of morbidity among all states and territories of Australia. (AUSTRALIA, MORBIDITY)
93.41.11 - English - John TAYLOR, Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200 (Australia)
Census Enumeration in Remote Australia: Issues for Aboriginal Data Analysis
Given the crucial role played by census data in informing economic and social policies directed at the Aboriginal population in remote areas, some assessment of the quality of remote area data is required as these are derived from enumeration procedures which differ fundamentally from the standard approach employed in the census. This paper discusses the remote area census enumeration strategy employed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), with a particular focus on the Northern Territory, and highlights possible implications for the interpretation of census counts and census characteristics. (AUSTRALIA, INDIGENOUS POPULATION, ENUMERATION, METHODOLOGY)
1993 - VOLUME 10, NUMBER 2
93.41.12 - English - Alan GRAY and Habtemariam TESFAGHIORGHIS, Demography Program, Research School of Social Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200 (Australia)
Aboriginal Population Prospects (p. 81-100)
Data from the 1991 Census largely confirm earlier projections of the size and structure of the Aboriginal population, although the data for Torres Strait Islanders are markedly inconsistent with previous counts. The 1986 and 1991 Censuses mark the first intercensal period for decades for which Aboriginal population counts have been consistent. This provides an opportunity, taken in this paper, to examine closely the discrepancies between projections and the 1991 Census and to comment on ways in which determinants of Aboriginal population change are diverging from the parameters used for previous projections. We pay particular attention to mortality prospects, because of the occurrence in the 1991 Census of a higher than expected sex ratio and differences between projections and counts for certain age groups. We note the evidence for under-enumeration of the Aboriginal population in particular age groups in the 1991 Census as in previous censuses, and estimate the size of adjustments necessary to correct for some, but not all, of these deficiencies. The analysis shows that Aboriginal fertility increased in the second half of the 1980s. (AUSTRALIA, INDIGENOUS POPULATION, CENSUSES, POPULATION PROJECTIONS)
93.41.13 - English - L.T. RUZICKA, National Centre for Developmental Studies, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200 (Australia), and C.Y. CHOI, Australian Institutre of Health and Welfare, P.O. Box 570, Canberra, ACT 2601 (Australia)
Suicide Mortality in Australia, 1970-1991 (p. 101-118)
This paper contains results of a study into changes in rates of suicide in Australia in the 1970s and 1980s. The study found that there was a significant divergence of suicide mortality rates between males and females, with male rates increasing in the last twenty years and female rates showing a general decline. The increase in male rates was highest at ages under 30 and over 80 years of age. The differences in rates between marital status groups have remained large. The study also analysed birthplace differentials in suicides and included some data from overseas countries for comparisons. (AUSTRALIA, SUICIDE, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, SEX DIFFERENTIALS)
93.41.14 - English - Robert V. HORN, 35 Johnston Crescent, Lane Cove, NSW (Australia)
The Validity of Australian Ancestry Statistics (p. 119-126)
The collection of statistics on ancestry has been discussed previously in this Journal and Australian Bureau of Statistics publications. This article examines the contrast between objective and subjective perceptions of ancestry hidden in the 1986 Census definitions which vitiates the published results and points to the limitations of validating uncertain collections by relating them to cognate series. It looks at the collection of ancestry statistics as a bold attempt at an impossible task which has yielded results that are often inaccurate, sometimes misleading and liable to abuse in their interpretation. It is suggested that some of the features of cultural structure could be more reliably ascertained by small sample surveys of perceptions and aspirations. (AUSTRALIA, SUICIDE, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, SEX DIFFERENTIALS)
93.41.15 - English - P.A. MURPHY, School of Town Planning, and I.H. BURNLEY, School of Geography, University of New South Wales, P.O. Box 1, Kensington, NSW 2033 (Australia)
Socio-Demographic Structure of Sydney's Perimetropolitan Region (p. 127-144)
The reach of cities extends well beyond the newest outer suburbs to at least the limits of commuting. Beyond the suburbs lie rural lands and urban centres which increasingly take on the function of suburbs. This perimetropolitan region has been researched from various perspectives and there has been a resurgence of interest in recent years. The paper conceptualizes processes driving change in perimetropolitan regions then, using Sydney as a case study, analyses population growth rates and internal migration patterns between 1981 and 1991. Next, a set of social and demographic variables derived from the 1986 Census is analysed to derive four key dimensions of socio-spatial structure, namely: disadvantage, rurality, socio-economic status and retirement. (AUSTRALIA, URBAN STRUCTURE, SUBURBAN AREAS, GEOGRAPHIC MOBILITY)
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