Back to home pageDECEMBER 1990 - VOLUME 8, NUMBER 2
93.36.01 - English - Alice GOLDSTEIN, Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (U.S.A.), Gu SHENGZU, and Sidney GOLDSTEIN, Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (U.S.A.)
Small Towns in China's Development Strategy: The Experience of North Hubei
The urbanization policy of Chinese planners is designed to control the growth of large cities and to develop smaller cities under the premise that, with the latter's close linkage with the agricultural hinterland, development will occur with large sections of the population becoming non-agricultural. This study looks into the changing definitions and typology of small towns in China from the points of view of their growth and their characteristics. Then, using the data from a survey of all small towns of North Hubei in China, the characteristics of small towns and how they differ by town levels, their functions and the changes between 1978 and 1984 were studied. It was observed that towns at all three levels - Qu, Xiang and Cun-of-North Hubei - contributed substantially to a rise in output value. Also, some specialization of function had taken place. The smaller towns showed potential for further development, indicating that the policy requirements of smaller towns selected as nodes in a broad service and commercial network are being met with. However, as the smaller towns are made to depend more on their own resources, it is likely that they may not be able to keep pace with the increasing demand for resources and technical skills that may be needed in the future. Hence, according to the evidence from the North Hubei Survey, the population redistribution policy of China would turn out to be successful in the short tun; additional state investment, however, would be required in the long term. (CHINA, REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT, SMALL TOWNS)
93.36.02 - English - S. MITRA and Martin L. LEVIN, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322 (U.S.A.)
Complex Roots of Lotka's Integral Equation for a Special Model of Net Maternity Rates
Using a modified Pearsonian Type III function for the age distribution of the net maternity rates, Lotka's integral equation haS been reduced to a form that is amenable to the extraction of all the roots of the intrinsic rate of growth. It has been found that the real parts of the complex roots are not always negative and that there is no computational sequence that guarantees the derivation of the roots in terms of a decreasing order of the real components. Interestingly enough, there appears to be an infinite number of solutions for any integral value of n, positive or negative, including zero. However, for all n, identical sets of roots are obtained for n and n+p, where p is a constant that can be analytically determined. Also, conjugate roots exist not only for n and -n, but also for n and n+h, where 2n+h is a multiple of p. Finally, for any n, a virtually constant difference between the complex components of the successive roots is always found at the second root and frequently at the first root. (MATHEMATICAL DEMOGRAPHY)
93.36.03 - English - M. Nurul ISLAM, Department of Statistics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka (Bangladesh), and M. Mujibur RAHMAN, Department of Statistics, University of Chittagong, Chittagong (Bangladesh)
On the Quality of Age-Sex Data (1951-1989) of Bangladesh
This paper examines the quality of age and sex data of Bangladesh as obtained from different sources covering a period of about 40 years. An attempt has also been made to make a comparative assessment of their quality at different times. With regard to the age and sex reporting, in most of the cases, the survey data have been found to be less affected by errors than those for censuses. The analysis made by the various demographic techniques shows that, possibly, the 1981 census data are more accurate among censuses and CDS 1980 survey data among surveys. The application of stable population technique, different index values and the results of the reverse survival estimates have all suggested that the BRSFM (conducted immediately after the 1974 census) age-sex data are more accurate than the 1974 census data and, thus, it seems that, in Bangladesh, the survey data are better than the census data. (BANGLADESH, QUALITY OF DATA, AGE-SEX DISTRIBUTION, SURVEYS, CENSUSES)
93.36.04 - English - D.C. NATH and L. CHOUDHURY, Department of Statistics, Gauhati University, Guwahati 781 014, Assam (India)
A Comparative Study of the Life Tables of Assam, Kerala and India, 1980
The life tables for Assam are constructed using the Sample Registration System data of 1980 using Greville's method of constructing abridged life tables. These tables are compared with those of Kerala and India. Brass' two parameter logit system, where fitted to survivors, is much lower than that of India and Assam. (INDIA, LIFE TABLES, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)
JUNE 1991 - VOLUME 9, NUMBER 1
93.36.05 - English - S. MITRA, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia 30322 (U.S.A.)
Derivations of Complex Roots of a Stable Model for a Special Distribution of Net Maternity Rates: An Alternative Method
Assumption of a Pearsonian Type III distribution with origin at the Start of the fertile interval reduces the integral equation of the stable population model to a pair of nonlinear equations. This happens to be one of the examples in which solutions can be obtained by different methods one of which has been presented in this paper followed by an illustration. A different method was attempted earlier and the solutions match as they must. Thus, infinite number of solutions are found to exist for all integral values of n, positive or negative. This is contrary to what is currently known to be true, namely that, there is only one solution for each n. Also of interest is the fact that when one of the parameters of the model is a rational number like p/q, the roots repeat themselves with a period of p. Thus, distinct roots exist only for n = 0, 1, ..... p-1. Further, conjugate roots exist not only for n and -n, but also for n and n+h where 2n+h is a multiple of p. (METHODOLOGY, MATHEMATICAL DEMOGRAPHY, STABLE POPULATION, FERTILITY RATE)
93.36.06 - English - K.B. PATHAK, A. PANDEY and U.S. MISHRA, International Institute for Population Sciences, Govandi Station Road, Deonar, Bombay 400 088 (India)
On Estimating Current Levels of Fertility and Child Mortality from the Data on Open Birth Interval and Survival Status of the Last Child
The paper presents a model to estimate simultaneously the force of fertility and child mortality from the data on open birth interval and survival status of the last child. Having applied the truncated distribution of open birth interval to the data simulated from age specific fertility rates, India circa 1981, we have estimated the aforesaid parameters of fertility and child mortality. (MATHEMATICAL MODELS, FERTILITY, INFANT MORTALITY, BIRTH INTERVALS)
93.36.07 - English - S. MUKHERJEE, B.N. BHATTACHARYA, Population Studies Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, 203 B.T. Road, Calcutta 700 035 (India), and K. K. SINGH, Department of Statistics, Bhanaras Hindu University, Varanasi 221 005 (India)
Breast-Feeding in Eastern Uttar Pradesh, India: Differentials and Determinants
Using data from a survey conducted in rural areas of Eastern Uttar Pradesh, India, during 1987-1989 the duration of breast feeding and its variation among different subgroups of population have been studied. Cox's proportional hazard model is used to identify its key determinants. (INDIA, DURATION OF LACTATION, PROPORTIONAL HAZARD MODELS)
93.36.08 - English - H.L. SHARMA, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104-6298 (U.S.A.)
Some Probability Models Describing the Variation in the Number of Out-migration at Micro Level
Under certain simplifying assumptions, some probability models describing the variation in the number of out-migration at micro level data are developed. The parameters involved in the models are estimated with the help of method moments, proportion of zero'th and one'th cell respectively. The maximum likelihood estimates are also derived alongwith their asymptotic variances and covariances. The results are illustrated using an example involving demographic data. (MATHEMATICAL DEMOGRAPHY, STOCHASTIC MODELS, EMIGRATION)
DECEMBER 1991 - VOLUME 9, NUMBER 2
93.36.09 - English - Dilip C. NATH, Department of Statistics, Gauhati University, Guwahti 781 014 (India), and Pijush K. TALUKDAR, Karimganj College, Karimganj, Assam (India)
Household Structure and Family Pattern of a Traditional Society
In this paper, main aim is to examine the household structure and family units of scheduled caste population - a traditional society of India - with the help of a survey data. Data is taken from a socio-demographic survey over scheduled caste population resided in the rural areas of Assam. It is observed that nuclearisation of family unit is rapidly increasing and jointness of family units is declining. The number of medium and large families with four to nine members is still very high and compared to that group the number of families of small size with one to three members is much less. Average size of household is nearly six indicating the presence of high fertility among the scheduled caste population. Study on the headship of families confirms usual dominance of males comparing with females in this society. Lastly, different indicators like dependency ratio, the size of young generation of age less than 16 years, size of aged population of age 60+, and crude householder rate also confirmed the presence of high fertility among scheduled caste population. (INDIA, FAMILY SIZE, CASTES, FERTILITY)
93.36.10 - English - V.P. OJHA et Himansu PANDEY, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Gorakhpur, Gorakhpur (India)
A Modified Probability Model for Out-migration
In this paper an attempt is made to describe the probability model of the total number of migrants from household. The suitability of the model is tested through observed data. (STOCHASTIC MODELS, EMIGRATION)
93.36.11 - English - K.S. SHAH, Department of Statistics, Anand Arts College, Anand (di-kaira) Pin 388 001 (India)
Factors Influencing Sema-natal Mortality
In this paper an attempt has been made to examine the crude impact of the factors: birth weight, maternal age, Gravida and sex on sema-natal mortality, on the one hand, and the relative effect of each of these factors individually, in the absence of the influence of other factors, on the other hand. For this study, data are collected from the case card records of mothers registered for delivery, during the period 1978-80 in Anand Municipal Hospital, Anand, India. 3,050 single live births are reported to have been recorded with complete information as per performa. And out of these live births, 99 are found to have ended into deaths within seven days of their birth. To study the influence of each factors under investigation on sema-natal mortality, a binary variable multiple regression method described by Feldstein (1966) and later used by Shah (1971) is adopted. (INDIA, NEONATAL MORTALITY, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS)
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