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MAY 1993 - VOLUME 30, NUMBER 2

93.09.16 - English - Daniel M. GOODKIND, Institute of Sociology, National Center for Social Sciences, 24 Tran Xuan Soan, Hanoi (Vietnam)

New Zodiacal Influences on Chinese Family Formation: Taiwan, 1976 (p. 127-142)

Although Chinese folklore holds that the Dragon Year is an auspicious time to have a birth, notable increases in Chinese fertility in Dragon Years did not occur before 1976. Demographic explanations for the belated occurrence of this phenomenon rely on the notion of natural fertility: that is, couples' lack of modern contraception had kept such decisions outside the realm of choice. The decomposition performed in this article, however, shows that the bulk of the 1976 Dragon Year baby boom on Taiwan was due to strategies that had always been available: marriage timing, abortion, and coital behavior. The natural fertility paradigm thus is insufficient in explaining the motivation for this behavior and should be complemented by institutional approaches. (TAIWAN, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, NATURAL FERTILITY, POPULAR CULTURE)

93.09.17 - English - Naomi RUTENBERG, The Futures Group, 1050 17th Street NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20036 (U.S.A.), and Ian DIAMOND, Department of Social Statistics, University of Southampton, Southampton 509 SNH (U.K.)

Fertility in Botswana: The Recent Decline and Future Prospects (p. 143-158)

Recent estimates of fertility in Botswana suggest a rapid decline of more than two births per woman between 1981 and 1988. This paper proposes that the baseline fertility was overestimated by that nonetheless fertility declined by about one birth per woman during the 1980s. The decline in fertility was linked to a deterioration in social and economic conditions caused by a major drought in the early 1980s and to the increased availability of family planning services in the same period. Fertility apparently began to rebound in the late 1980s in response to improved conditions, which came about as a result of a succcessful drought relief program. Future planning program, particularly in rural areas. (BOTSWANA, FERTILITY DECLINE, DROUGHT, SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS)

93.09.18 - English - Ann P. RILEY, Department of Demography, Georgetown University, Washington, DC 20057 (U.S.A.), Albert I. HERMALIN, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48106 (U.S.A.), and Luis ROBERTO-BIXBY, Instituto de Investigaciones en Salud, Universidad de Costa Rica, San Jose (Costa Rica)

A New Look at the Determinants of Nonnumeric Response to Desired Family Size: The Case of Costa Rica (p. 159-174)

In fertility surveys, questions on desired family size often receive a certain proportion of inappropriate, non-numeric answers. They are generally assimilated either to "a not" or to non-responses. In order to make a more indepth analysis, the authors are proposing a conceptual framework where these non-numeric responses are related to various determinants at aggregate (fertility rates, cultural characteristics) and individual levels (education, birth history), as well as to the technical aspects of the survey (the way in which the question is set, characteristics of the surveyor). By comparing the WFS and DHS surveys in numerous countries, they confirm that, the larger the desired family size, the higher the proportion of non-numeric responses. And, by using an in-depth analysis of the data from the 1981 Costa Rican Survey on Contraceptive Prevalence, they demonstrate that most of the women who give non-numeric replies do indeed have a specific fertility goal and that the probability of a non-numeric response is closely linked to the women's intellectual capacities and to the degree of control they exercise over their fertility and much less to their birth history or any contextual determinants. To conclude, they suggest a revised formulation for questions on the desired family size. (COSTA RICA, DESIRED FAMILY SIZE, NON-RESPONSE, OPEN-ENDED QUESTIONS)

93.09.19 - English - Tom FRICKE, Institute for Social Research, Department of Anthropology, and Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1248 (U.S.A.), and Jay D. TEACHMAN, Department of Sociology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742-1315 (U.S.A.)

Writing the Names: Marriage Style, Living Arrangements, and First Birth Interval in a Nepali Society (p. 175-187)

Using data from a Nepali population, this analysis argues that marriage style and postmarital living arrangements affect coital frequency to produce variations in the timing of first birth after marriage. Event history analysis of the first birth interval for 149 women suggests that women's autonomy in marriage decisions and marriage to cross-cousins accelerate the pace of entry into first birth. Extended-household residence with reduced natal kin contact, on the other hand, significantly lengthens the first birth interval. These findings are consistent with previous arguments in the literature while offering new evidence for the impact of extended-family residence on fertility. (NEPAL, TYPES OF MARRIAGE, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, INTERPREGNANCY INTERVAL)

93.09.20 - English - Noreen GOLDMAN, Office of Population Research, Princeton University, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544 (U.S.A.)

Marriage Selection and Mortality Patterns: Inferences and Fallacies (p. 189-208)

Researchers have long wondered whether marital-status differences in mortality arise largely from selection mechanisms or from causal processes typically known as marriage protection. Unfortunately, many investigators have relied on aggregate patterns of mortality differentials - such as age schedules of excess mortality in the single population or the relationship between the level of excess mortality and the relative size of the single population - to make inferences about the relative importance of selection and causal processes. In this paper, a simple mathematical simulation model is used to demonstrate that many inferences derived from observed patterns are simply not justified. This finding highlights the importance of prospective data for assessing the relative importance of selection and causal factors in accounting for the excess mortality of the unmarried. (DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, MARITAL STATUS, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, SIMULATION)

93.09.21 - English - Laura RUDKIN, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, University Square, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997 (U.S.A.)

Gender Differences in Economic Well-being Among the Elderly of Java (p. 209-226)

With population aging rapidly in many developing nations, issues of economic dependency among the elderly are of increasing importance. Using data from a 1986 survey of the elderly on Java, Indonesia, the author describes gender differences in economic well-being and identify characteristics associated with economic disadvantage. At both the individual and the household level, older women have fewer resources than older men. Even within categories of support (work income and remittances), women have lower levels of well-being. Gender differences in household-level economic well-being are due primarily to differences in household structure and in levels of skills. Gender differences in individual receipts (from all sources) are more complicated, but can be understood more clearly with reference to gender differences in skills levels (literacy, language, job skills), current work status and authority, and domestic authority. (INDONESIA, SEX DIFFERENTIALS, INDIVIDUAL WELFARE, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, AGED)

93.09.22 - English - Elizabeth PHILIPPS and Irwin GARFINKEL, School of Social Work and Institute for Research on Poverty, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706 (U.S.A.)

Income Growth among Nonresident Fathers: Evidence from Wisconsin (p. 227-242)

This study examines the changes over time in the personal incomes of nonresident fathers - whether divorced or non marital - in Wisconsin. Using data from the Wisconsin Court Record data base and the Wisconsin Department of Revenue, the authors examine the incomes of these fathers over the first seven years following a divorce or the initiation of a paternity suit. They also study separately the income patterns of initially poor nonresident fathers and fathers whose nonresident children receive welfare. The most important finding is that the income of nonmarital fathers, which typically are low in the beginning, increase dramatically over the years after paternity establishment - often to a level comparable with the incomes of divorced fathers. On the basis of their findings, the authors conclude that failing to establish child support obligations for nonresident fathers simply because their incomes are initially low does not appear justified. (UNITED STATES, FATHER, INCOME, ALIMONY, END OF UNION)

93.09.23 - English - John R. LOGAN and Richard D. ALBA, Department of Sociology, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, NY 12222 (U.S.A.)

Locational Returns to Human Capital: Minority Access to Suburban Community Resources (p. 243-265)

The suburbanization of racial and ethnic minorities is analyzed in terms of the locational resources provided by their communities of residence. In suburbs in the New York CMSA, non-Hispanic whites and Asians, on average, live in communities with higher average socioeconomic status, while Hispanics and blacks live in the less desirable suburbs. Models predicting suburban socioeconomic status for each racial/ethnic group show that whites and Hispanics receive consistent returns on income, acculturation, and family status. Asians' locational patterns differ because they are unrelated to measures of acculturation; for blacks, locational outcomes correspond least to any of these human capital characteristics. (UNITED STATES, ETHNIC MINORITIES, HUMAN RESOURCES, OVERURBANIZATION, SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS)

93.09.24 - English - Mark SCHNEIDER, Department of Political Science, and Thomas PHELAN, Department of Sociology, State University of New York, Stony Brook, NY 11794-4392 (U.S.A.)

Black Suburbanization in the 1980s (p. 269-279)

Using an extraction of recent data on the suburbs of about one hundred large American townships (almost 2,000 municipalities). the authors examine trends in the structures of Black spatial settlement between 1980 and 1990 and study to what degree - based on the characteristics of these municipalities - Blacks had a preference for settling in a given type of suburban community. It can be seen that, when a municipality begins to receive Blacks, the proportion of its Black residents increases rapidly. The suburbs where the numbers of Blacks are becoming increasingly concentrated are generally not very far from the city centres, average per capita income is rather low and investments are limited. But these are still, generally speaking, rich communes: this apparent paradox will require more in-depth studies. The proportion of Black residents in the suburbs has increased during the 1980s. While a large number of suburban localities have recently been opened up to Blacks, it is still the case that Black communities continue to be concentrated and that the degree of residential segregation is not declining. (UNITED STATES, BLACKS, SEGREGATION, OVERURBANIZATION)

93.09.25 - English - Mark J. VANLANDINGHAM, Somboon SUPRASERT, Werasit SITTITRAI, Chayan VADDHANAPHUTI and Nancy GRANDJEAN

Sexual Activity among Never-Married Men in Northern Thailand (p. 297-314)

The authors use data collected in 1991 to investigate sexual activity among never-married men in Thailand, with a focus on age at first intercourse, characteristics of sexual partners, and conditions under which men visit prostitutes. The authors sampled men from a broad spectrum of northern Thai society, including university undergraduates, soldiers, and semi-skilled/unskilled workers. They found that except for the students, the majority of each subsample is sexually experienced; prostitutes are the most common type of sexual partner for all groups. Alcohol consumption is associated with several measures of sexual activity. Condom use with prostitutes varies among the subsamples. Among men who have both prostitute and nonprostitute paratners, the majority of those who do not use condoms with prostitutes also do not use condoms with their non prostitute partners. The authors consider the implications of these results for the AIDS epidemic in Thailand. (THAILAND, BACHELORS, SEXUAL BEHAVIOUR, PROSTITUTION, CONDOM, AIDS)

93.09.26 - English - Mizanur RAHMAN, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, GPO Box 128, Dhaka 1000 (Bangladesh), and Julie DA VANZO, RAND, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, California 90407-2138 (U.S.A.)

Gender Preference and Birthspacing in Matlab, Bangladesh (p. 315-332)

Gender preference, particularly son preference, is believed to sustain high fertility in many Asian countries, but previous research shows unclear effects. We examine and compare gender-preference effects on fertility in two otherwise comparable populations in Bangladesh that differ markedly in their access to and use of contraception. We excpect, and find, stronger effects of gender preference in the population that has more access to contraception and higher levels of contraceptive use. Thus gender preference may emerge as a significant barrier to further national family planning efforts in Bangladesh. We find that if a woman has at least one daughter, the risk of a subsequent birth is related negatively to the number of sons. Women with no daughters also experience a higher risk of having a subsequent birth; this finding suggests that there is also some preference for daughters. Son preference is strong in both the early and later stages of family formation, but women also want to have at least one daughter after having several sons. (BANGLADESH, SEX PREFERENCE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)

93.09.27 - English - Barry M. POPKIN, David K. GUILKEY, John S. AKIN, Linda S. ADAIR, J. Richard UDRY, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997 (U.S.A.), and Wilhelm FLIEGER, Office of Population Studies, University of San Carlos, Cebu City (Philippines)

Nutrition, Lactation and Birth Spacing in Filipino Women (p. 333-352)

The Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey is used to examine the roles of women's nutrition and infant feeding in determining time from birth to menses and time from menses to conception. The analysis sample includes 2,648 Filipino women followed for 24 months postpartum. Recently devised statistical estimation techniques to control for unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity are employed in estimating a two-state hazard model. Low body mass index and lower dietary fat intake are associated with increased duration of postpartum amenorrhea. Contraceptive use, high dietary fat consumption, higher parity, and absence of spouse predict a longer waiting time to conception once menses have returned. Simulation of the hazard model is used to examine the effects of the key nutrition and lactation factors. (PHILIPPINES, CONCEPTION DELAY, BIRTH INTERVALS, POST-PARTUM AMENORRHOEA)

93.09.28 - English - Pamela J. SMOCK, Department of Sociology, Louisiana State University, 126 Stubbs Hall, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 (U.S.A.)

The Economic Costs of Marital Disruption for Young Women Over the Past Two Decades (p. 353-372)

This paper examines the economic costs of separation and divorce for young women in the United States from the late 1960s through the late 1980s. Broadened opportunities for women outside marriage may have alleviated some of the severe economic costs of marital disruption for women. This paper contrasts the experiences of two cohorts of young women: those who married and separated or divorced in the late 1960s through the mid-1970s and those who experienced these events in the 1980s. Based on panel data from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth 1979-1988, Young Women 1968-1978, and Young Men 1966-1978, the results show stability in the costs of disruption. A multivariate analysis shows that young women in the more recent cohort have more labor force experience before disruption than those in the earlier cohort, but prior work history does not protect women from the severe costs of marital disruption. (UNITED STATES, END OF UNION, COSTS)

93.09.29 - English - William SANDER, Department of Economics, DePaul University, 25 E. Jackson Bd., Chicago, IL 60604 (U.S.A.)

Catholicism and Marriage in the United States (p. 373-384)

This study examines the effects of a Catholic background on age at first marriage, the odds of never marrying, and the odds of ever divorcing. Estimates using Catholic upbringing are compared with estimates using Catholic at the time of the survey. A case is made that if the latter measure of Catholicism is used, serious selection bias problems occur in some cases because this measure excludes defectors and includes converts. Further, it is shown that a Catholic upbringing generally has no effect on men's age at first marriage and has a positive effect on the age when women marry. It is also shown that older Baptist men are substantially more likely than Catholic men to experience a divorce. Older Catholic women are somewhat less likely to experience a divorce than non-Baptist Protestant women. There is no Catholic effect on the odds that younger men and women will divorce. (UNITED STATES, NUPTIALITY, DIVORCE, CATHOLICISM)

93.09.30 - English - Evelyn L. LEHRER and Carmel U. CHISWICK, Economics Department, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL 60680 (U.S.A.)

The Religious Composition of Unions: Its Role as a Determinant of Marital Stability (p. 385-404)

Using data from the 1987-1988 National Survey of Families and Households, this paper studies the role of the religious composition of unions as a determinant of marital stability. With the exceptions of Mormons and individuals with no religious identification, stability is found to be remarkably similar across the various types of homogamous unions. Consistent with the notion that religion is a complementary marital trait, interfaith unions have generally higher rates of dissolution than intrafaith unions. The destabilizing effect of out-marriage varies inversely with the similarity in beliefs and practices of the two religions as well as with the mutual tolerance embodied in their respective doctrines. The results also suggest that religious compatibility between spouses at the time of marriage has a large influence on marital stability, rivaling in magnitude that of age at marriage and, at least for Protestants and Catholics, dominating any adverse effects of differences in religious background. (UNITED STATES, MARITAL UNION, END OF UNION, RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION)

93.09.31 - English - S.R. DUNCAN, Control Systems Centre, Department of Electrical Engineering and Electronics, UMIST, P.O. Box 88, Manchester M60 1QD (U.K.), Susan SCOTT and C. J. DUNCAN, Department of Environmental and Evolutionary Biology, University of Liverpool, P.O. Box 147, Liverpool L69 3BX (U.K.)

The Dynamics of Smallpox Epidemics in Britain, 1550-1800 (p. 405-424)

Time-series analysis, a valuable tool in studying population dynamics, has been used to determine the periodicity of smallpox epidemics during the 17th and 18th centuries in two contrasting representative situations: (1) London, a large city where smallpox was endemic, and (2) Penrith, a small rural town. The interepidemic period was found to be two years in London and five years in Penrith. Equations governing the dynamics of epidemics predict (1) a two-year periodicity and (2) that oscillatory epidemics die out quickly. It is suggested that epidemics were maintained by a periodic variation in susceptibility linked either to a five-year cycle of malnutrition or to an annual cycle. Computer modeling shows how the very different patterns of epidemics are related to population size and to the magnitude of the oscillation in susceptibility. (UNITED KINGDOM, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, EPIDEMICS, SMALLPOX)

93.09.32 - English - Frans VAN POPPEL, NIDI, P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AZ The Hague (Netherlands), and Joop DE BEER, Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics, Department of Population Statistics, P.O. Box 959, 2270 AZ Voorburg (Netherlands)

Measuring the Effect of Changing Legislation on the Frequency of Divorce: The Netherlands, 1830-1990 (p. 425-442)

This article discusses different procedures for measuring the effects of judicial changes on divorce rates. It presents an alternative model and applies it to a historical time series for the Netherlands. In this model, intervention variables were added to a statistical time-series (ARIMA) model. The conclusion of our analysis was that the effects of three judicial changes were only temporary. (NETHERLANDS, DIVORCE RATE, LEGISLATION)

93.09.33 - English - Myron P. GUTMANN, Department of History and Population Research Center, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712-1163 (U.S.A.), and Kenneth H. FLIESS, Department of Anthropology, The University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557 (U.S.A.)

The Determinants of Early Fertility Decline in Texas (p. 443-458)

This study examines the determinants of fertility control in a frontier population made up largely of German-Americans during the years from 1850 to 1910. The analysis employs a complex register of population constructed from census enumerations, civil and ecclesiastical vital registration, and tax assessment rolls. The article begins with a series of bivariate analyses with cohort of mother's birth, religion, ethnicity, and husband's occupation determining marital fertility. The second half of the paper presents a multivariate model of the determinants of fertility using these and other demographic characteristics as independent variables. The conclusions emphasize the importance of the overall trend toward fertility decline in the United States, as well as the role of religion and of occupational differences, in determining changes in fertility behavior in the population of Gillespie County, Texas. (UNITED STATES, FERTILITY DECLINE, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, ETHNIC GROUPS)

93.09.34 - English - J. Ties BOERMA, Demographic and Health Surveys, Macro International Inc., 8850 Stanford Bd., Columbia, MD 21045 (U.S.A.), and George STROH, Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, GA 30333 (U.S.A.)

Assessing Neonatal Tetanus Mortality Levels and Trends in Developing Countries with Survey Data (p. 459-476)

Demographic and health surveys are a useful source of information on the levels and trends of neonatal mortality in developing countries. Such surveys provide data on mortality occurring at 4-14 days of life, which is a sensitive indicator of neonatal tetanus mortality. We analyze birth history data from 37 national surveys in developing countries to assess the quality of neonatal mortality data and to estimate levels and trends in mortality occurring at 4-14 days. It is shown that mortality at 4-14 days has declined considerably during the last decade in most developing countries, concomitant with development and expansion of programs to reduce neonatal tetanus. These declines show that reductions in neonatal tetanus mortality probably have been an important contributor to the decline of neonatal and infant mortality during the 1980s. (DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, NEONATAL MORTALITY, MORTALITY DECLINE)

93.09.35 - English - Elizabeth ZENGER, Office of Population Research, Princeton University, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544 (U.S.A.)

Siblings' Neonatal Mortality Risks and Birth Spacing in Bangladesh (p. 477-488)

This paper studies the familial association of neonatal mortality in Matlab, Bangladesh and its relationship to birth-spacing effects on mortality. Findings show that familial association is strongest for siblings of adjacent birth orders. Moreover, birth-spacing effects on neonatal mortality are stronger when the preceding child has survived the neonatal period than when it has died, Transitional (Markov), randoni-effects, and marginal models for correlated data are introduced, and are contrasted in interpretation and technique. Familial association of neonatal mortality can be approximated well by a first-order Markov model using generalized estimating equations (GEE) to allow for higher-order correlation. (BANGLADESH, NEONATAL MORTALITY, BIRTH SPACING, SIBLINGS, MATHEMATICAL MODEL)

93.09.36 - English - Jeffrey E. KALLAN, Studies and Surveys Unit, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, National Research Council, 2101 Constitution Av., Washington, DC 20418 (U.S.A.)

Race, Intervening Variables, and Two Forms of Low Birth Weight (p. 489-506)

The low birth weight (LBW) gap between blacks and whites has remained largely unexplained in past research. Most previous research on the topic has focused on LBW as a single entity, and without using a causal framework for analysis. The present study examines the determinants of race differences in the two main components of LBW - preterm birth (PRETERM) and intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR) - within a partially causal framework that includes social and proximate explanatory variables. The data come from the 1988 National Survey of Family Growth. This study asks, first, through what intervening variables do race and other exogenous sociodemographic variables operate to raise the risk of these adverse pregnancy outcomes? Second, what are the determinants of the two components of LBW when all explanatory variables are included in the model? The findings reveal differences in how race (and other exogenous variables) act through downstream variables to affect PRETERM and IUGR, as well as differences in the net determinants of these pregnancy outcomes. The models are better able to account statistically for race differences in IUGR (which is explained by intervening sociodemographic, attitude, and behavior variables) than in PRETERM (which is explained partly by intervening health variables). (UNITED STATES, RACES, BIRTH WEIGHT, PREMATURITY, INTERMEDIATE VARIABLES, FOETAL DEVELOPMENT)

1993 - VOLUME 30, NUMBER 4
The First Part of this issue contains seven texts devoted to the Thirty Years of Demography

93.09.37 - English - Mark R. RANK, George Warren Brown School of Social Work, Washington University, St. Louis, MO 63130 (U.S.A.), and Thomas A. HIRSCHL, Department of Rural Sociology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (U.S.A.)

The Link between Population Density and Welfare Participation (p. 607-622)

This article explores a neglected topic in the social welfare, poverty, and demographic literatures - the link between population density and welfare participation in the United States. Longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics are used to meet two objectives: first, to test whether a relationship exists between population density and use of the food stamp program among eligible households; second, to explore the potential reasons for such a relationship. Our findings show that population density has a strong, positive impact on the likelihood of participating in the food stamp program. Low-income respondents in urban areas are significantly more likely to use food stamps in both an aggregate and a multivariate context. In analysing the dynamic underlying such an effect, we find that those in urban areas are more likely to possess accurate eligibility information and to hold less adverse attitudes toward the use of welfare. These factors in turn increase the likelihood of food stamp participation. (UNITED STATES, POPULATION DENSITY, POVERTY)

93.09.38 - English - B.E. AGUIRRE, Rogelio SAENZ, John EDMISTON, Nan YANG, Elsa AGRAMONTE and Dietra L. STUART, Department of Sociology, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX 77843 (U.S.A.)

The Human Ecology of Tornadoes (p. 623-633)

This paper offers an empirical test of the impact of human ecological patterns and other known correlates on tornado occurrence. It uses the National Severe Storms Forecast Center's information on tornadoes from 1950 through 1990 and employs ecological data from the US Bureau of the Census and the Environmental Protection Agency. The results show that metropolitan and other urban counties have higher odds of tornado occurrence than rural counties, and that the probability of occurrence of tornadoes increases with increases in the number of previous tornadoes. The paper assesses the meaning of this finding for demographers, atmospheric scientists, engineers, and disaster managers. (UNITED STATES, URBAN AREAS, HUMAN ECOLOGY, NATURAL DISASTERS)

93.09.39 - English - Karl ESCHBACH, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin, 1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706 (U.S.A.)

Changing Identification among American Indians and Alaska Natives (p. 635-652)

The census-enumerated American Indian population dispersed rapidly between 1930 and 1990. Changes in ethnic classification account for most of the change. In the 1980 count, 10 states with historically large Indian populations account for 53% of births of Indians between the ages of 10 and 80, compared with 72% of the first enumerations of the same cohorts. Migration further reduced the share of these states to 46% of Indian residents in these cohorts. Study of the dispersal of the Indian population should focus primarily on the new emergence of the expression of Indian identity, rather than on migration from former population centers. (UNITED STATES, AMERINDIANS, ETHNICITY, POPULATION CENSUSES)

93.09.40 - English - Lee A. LILLARD, The RAND Corporation, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407 (U.S.A.), and Linda J. WAITE, Population Research Center, NORC and the University of Chicago, 1155 East 16th Street, Chicago, IL 60637 (U.S.A.)

A Joint Model of Marital Childbearing and Marital Disruption (p. 653-681)

Married couples with children appear to be less likely to end their marriages than childless couples, especially when the children are young. Although this suggests that children affect the chances that their parents will divorce, the process may not be so simple: the chances that the marriage will last also may affect couples' willingness to make the commitment to the marriage implied by having children. This paper uses data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to test the hypothesis that the risk of disruption faced by a married woman affects the chances that she will conceive and bear a child. The model used takes into account the simultaneous relationships between marital dissolution and marital fertility by including the hazard of disruption as a predictor of timing and likelihood of marital conception, and by including the results of previous fertility decisions as predictors of disruption of the marriage. We find that the hazard of disruption has strong negative effects on the hazard of marital childbearing, lengthening the intervals between births and decreasing the chances that a child will be born. This effect appears to be strongest for women who have had at least one child, either before or during the current marriage, although it is also large for childless women. Explicitly including the hazard of disruption in models of marital childbearing has sizable and important effects on many predictors of fertility. (UNITED STATES, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, LEGITIMTE FERTILITY RATE, END OF UNION, MODELS)

93.09.41 - English - Frances GOLDSCHEIDER, Department of Sociology, Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University, Box 1916, Providence, RI 02912 (U.S.A.), Arland THORNTON and Linda YOUNG-DEMARCO, Institute for Social Research, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1248 (U.S.A.)

A Portrait of the Nestleaving Process in Early Adulthood (p. 683-699)

This paper provides an in-depth portrait of the nestleaving process in early adulthood as it emerged in the 1980s. Event histories are used to describe transitions in and out of the parental home during the years from age 15 through age 23. We focus on the role of the "new" forms of living arrangements in the leaving-home process, namely nonfamily living and cohabitation. The results show that the transition to full residential independence is more gradual, with more intermediate steps, than previous studies suggested. Cohabitation is rare as a route out of the parental home, and both nonfamily living and cohabitation lead to much higher return rates than does marriage. (YOUTH, COHABITATION, HOUSEHOLD SIZE, FAMILY LIFE CYCLE)

93.09.42 - English - Roger A. WOJTKIEWICZ, Department of Sociology, 126 Stubbs, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803-5411 (U.S.A.)

Simplicity and Complexity in the Effects of Parental Structure on High School Graduation (p. 701-717)

As more and more children experience nonintact families because of nonmarital birth or parental marital disruption, researchers have paid more attention to whether nonintact family experiences have negative effects on later life. This study uses data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to consider how experiences of parental structure affect chances of high school graduation. The study shows that the negative effects of parental structure are simpler than theoretical notions might suggest. (UNITED STATES, FAMILY NUCLEUS, SECONDARY EDUCATION, SCHOOL SUCCESS)

93.09.43 - English - H. Elizabeth PETERS, Department of Economics and Population Program, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309 (U.S.A.), Laura M. ARGYS, Department of Economics, University of Colorado, Denver, CO 80217 (U.S.A.), Eleanor E. MACCOBY, Department of Psychology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (U.S.A.), and Robert H. MNOOKIN, Law School, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138 (U.S.A.)

Enforcing Divorce Settlements: Evidence from Child Support Compliance and Award Modifications (p. 719-735)

This paper uses an implicit contracting framework to understand the dynamic nature of divorce settlements and to analyze the determinants of noncompliance with child support awards. In addition to the standard economic variables that affect the noncustodial parent's (NCP's) ability to pay child support, our approach focuses on factors that may affect the NCP's desire to pay, such as the ongoing relationship between the two parents and between the NCP and the children. We also examine the "state-contingent" nature of child support payments and explore the factors that lead to modifications in child support agreements. Using a longitudinal data set collected by the Stanford Child Custody Project, the empirical analysis provides documentation that compliance by noncustodial fathers can vary substantially from month to month. In addition, we find that even within a short period after divorce, a substantial minority of parents agree to make informal modifications to their divorce settlement in response to changes in economic circumstances and in custodial arrangements. (UNITED STATES, DIVORCE, CHILD CUSTODY, ALIMONY)

93.09.44 - English - Robert SCHOEN and Robin M. WEINICK, Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205 (U.S.A.)

The Slowing Metabolism of Marriage: Figures from 1988 US Marital Status Life Tables (p. 737-746)

Marital status life tables for the United States, 1988, show a continuing retreat from marriage. For both sexes, the proportion ever marrying declined and the average age at first marriage rose. The 1988 rates imply that 43% of marriages end in divorce. That represents a slight decline from the 1983 figure, and suggests that divorce has peaked at a level below that estimated in earlier analyses. (UNITED STATES, NUPTIALITY TABLES, FIRST MARRIAGE, DIVORCE RATE)

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