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JANUARY-DECEMBER 1992 - NUMBER 1-4
JANUARY-JUNE 1993 - NUMBER 1-2

93.03.01 - Serbo-Croat - Maja MILJANIC

Demographic Transition Theory: Theory or a Model? (Teorija demografske tranzicije - teorija ili model) (p. 5-20)

Although considered by Coale to be "a well-known and even ultra-well-known subject" and by Beaver to be "one of the most important theoretical concepts of social demography", the demographic transition theory cannot yet be considered as a closed book. The author develops the following ideas in the present essay: (1) The classic demographic transition theory cannot be applied to varying socio-economic situations and at any point in time; "westernisation", the sole basis of the theory, does not succeed when applied to "non-Western" situations. (2) As far as theories go, the demographic transition has not managed to establish its own laws which would allow to control for each of the successive phases of the transition being reached and to predict the possible future. (3) In its original presentation, it is more of a model than a theory, mainly because it incorporates simplifications and generalisations which keep it distant from any concrete reality. (4) The fact that numerous researchers plead for and against the existence of a second demographic transition indicates that this theory will afford a subject for discussion for a long time to come. (DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, POPULATION THEORY, DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS)

93.03.02 - Serbo-Croat - Mina PETROVIC

Investigation of Individual Attitudes of ideal, Wanted and Realized Number of Children (Istrazivanje stavova o idealnom, zeljenom i realizovanom broju dece) (p. 21-44)

After various theoretical considerations and an overall view of results of research into the ideal family size and the desired family size, the author observes a positive correlation between these norms and the actual family size, the latter being slightly smaller than the former. She explains the phenomenon by the inertia of stereotyped values and, in particular, by the social status of individuals which means it is not possible for them to have exactly the number of children they would like. The social homogeneity of fertility is obvious and is part of the general standardisation of consumer behaviour in modern society. While social institutions remain passive in the face of the problem of low fertility, this could be due to the fact that people's mentalities and reproductive behaviour cannot change without prior substantial changes in the way modern society functions - changes of considerable qualitative importance for individuals' situations as parents. In the second part of the article, the author presents the results of an exploratory survey, undertaken in Belgrade in 1991 using answers from 101 female workers who were questioned about their ideal, desired and actual family size. A broad range of qualitative information was also sought. The general social crisis affects every social class and has a strong impact on responses. The various social groups express highly differentiated scales of needs and values with regard to children, childbearing and parents' work. The author concludes that the various classes in society could react differently to possible population policy measures. (YUGOSLAVIA, ATTITUDES, IDEAL FAMILY SIZE, DESIRED FAMILY SIZE)

93.03.03 - Serbo-Croat - Mirjana RASEVIC

Reproductive Behaviour and Induced Abortion (Reproduktivno ponasanje i namerni prekid trudnoce) (p. 45-62)

Although numerous contraceptive methods and techniques, acceptable to both medicine and individuals, have been developed, there is still a demand for induced abortion. Amongst the various determinants of induced abortion are birth control, a strict control of biological potential, the objective restrictions of contraception and their subjective perception, and the psychological and social characteristics of the men and women in question. Norms of low fertility, the precocity of sexual relations, the spread of cohabitation and other behavioural patterns come to light recently demand a vigorous control of reproduction. The limits of contraception lie, first of all, in its very nature. There is a resistence to contraception because it goes against nature, because it raises doubts or fears, because it sometimes requires specific conditions and preparation, because its efficiency can vary, because it sometimes has to become permanent, etc. Various other personal characteristics also come into play: their knowledge on the subject, their relationship with their partner, their degree of control over their own lives, their attitude towards sexuality, their aptitude towards decision-making in this field, and the seriousness with which they carry out their long-term objectives. (REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR, INDUCED ABORTION, CONTRACEPTIVE PRACTICE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)

93.03.04 - Serbo-Croat - Goran PENEV

Population Projections for the FR of Yugoslavia, 1991-2150, in the Context of Long-range World Population Projections (Projekcije stanovnistva SR Jugoslavije, 1991-2150. u kontekstu dugorocnih projekcija stanovnistva sveta) (p. 63-98)

The article begins with a presentation and discussion of the hypotheses and results of the long-range world population projections prepared by the United Nations experts in 1990. These projections, which cover up until the year 2150, include seven variants and sub-divide the world into nine major regions. There is one single mortality hypothesis which, at the end of the projection, leads to a life expectancy of 87.5 years for females and 82.5 years for males (84.9 years for both sexes). Then, the author presents his own projections for Yugoslavia from 1991 to 2150, calculated using the same hypotheses and variants as the United Nations. But he also adds in an eighth variant including a hypothesis of rapid fertility decline to a total rate of 1.3, maintained until the end of the projection. According to the extreme variants, the 10.4 million Yugoslavs in 1991 will be either 1.8 million or 57.4 million in 2150. It is the average fertility or simple generation replacement variants which lead to the least change, with a growth rate of 20% in 160 years. The population's age structure will be transformed, particularly before 2050 and, depending on the variants, ageing will again be slightly emphasised or will be replaced by rejuvenation. In the average variant, the proportion of children under 15 years of age will decline from 19.3% to 17.5% while that of the elderly of 65 years of age and over will increase from 11.9% to 24.5%. (YUGOSLAVIA, LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS)

93.03.05 - Serbo-Croat - Radoslav STEVANOVIC

Characteristics of Migratory Movements in Communes of FR of Yugoslavia: Based on the 1991 Census (Migranione odlike opstina SR Jugoslavije: Prema popisu iz 1991) (p. 99-116)

Using the 1991 Census and civil registration statistics, the author reviews migratory movements at a communal level during the intercensal period 1981-1991. He then compares them with the previous period, 1971-1981. The migratory balance is negative in 80.1% of the communes, representing 81.9% of the territory and 65.1% of the population; it is positive in 19.9% of the communes, representing 18.1% of the territory and 34.9% of the population. In comparison with the period 1971-1981, the number of emigration communes increased from 136 to 161; it increased mainly in Central Serbia and Voivodina; it remained stable in Montenegro and decreased in Kosovo-Methoija. Thus, the regional distribution of the population changed. (YUGOSLAVIA, INTERCENSAL MIGRATION, POPULATION DISTRIBUTION)

93.03.06 - Serbo-Croat - Nada RADUSKI

Household Structures according to socio-economic Characteristics: The Case of Serbia (Sastav domacinstva Srbije prema socio-ekonomskim karakteristikama) (p. 117-134)

Post-war industrialisation and urbanisation have led to high spatial mobility of the population and have had a significant effect on families and households with regard to their size, structures and social stratification. Between the 1948 and 1981 censuses, the number of households in Serbia increased continually while their size decreased. The household is drawing closer to the nuclear family with a little over three members on average. In contrast, the average household size is 6.7 people in Kosovo-Methoija, where fertility is high, the economy is agricultural in nature and migrations are low. The transfer of agricultural population towards non-agricultural activities has modified the economic functions of households. The proportion of households containing both people belonging to the agricultural sector and people belonging to the non-agricultural sector has strongly increased and reached 27.8% in 1981. There are equal numbers of economically active and dependents. These mixed households have a better standard of living than the exclusively agricultural households. It is in the 1960s that the non-agricultural households moved into the majority. Their average size (3.2) is slightly lower than that of the other household categories, the proportion of the economically active is on the increase and that of dependants is decreasing. (YUGOSLAVIA, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, HOUSEHOLD SIZE, SOCIAL STRATIFICATION)

93.03.07 - Serbo-Croat - Gordana MATKOVIC, Tripo MULINA et Miroslav RASEVIC

Population, Labour Force and Employment in the South Serbia (Stanovnistvo, radna snaga i zaposlenost na podrucju juga Srbije) (p. 135-152)

The authors review some of the works which have been undertaken in order to create a long-term socio-economic development programme for the under-developed regions in the South of Serbia and a few other border communities. They study population and household trends, fertility, mortality, natural growth, social and economic population structures, development and characteristics of the labour force, employment trends in general and in the private sector and abroad, unemployment and the economic structure of the labour force during the period 1961-1991. They also include population, labour force and employment projections up to the year 2010. During recent decades, population trends in South Serbia were influenced simultaneously by both modern and traditional economic and social processes, the latter having both long-term and indirect effects. As a result, the population development in this region is very modern in aspect. And yet, the population situation in the late 1980s was characterised by trends deemed to be indesirable and by some serious problems. Future trends will depend on the development programme to be implemented in this region. (YUGOSLAVIA, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, POPULATION DYNAMICS, EMPLOYMENT, MANPOWER, POPULATION PROJECTIONS)

93.03.08 - Serbo-Croat - Miladin KOVACEVIC

Serbs as Victims in the Second World War (Srbi kao zrtve u Drugom svetskom ratu) (p. 153-160)

Serbian losses in the Second World War have been estimated by V. Zerjevic and B. Kocovic and by a survey undertaken in 1964 which has not yet been completed. It is generally considered that the estimates made by these two authors are both the most serious and the most reliable. They provided figures which were very close to each other, in particular for the total number of victims on Yugoslav territory : approximately 1,020,000 direct war victims. The author takes these estimates as a starting point in order to split the Serbian losses (597,000) into various categories of victims: civil, prisoners and soldiers on active duty, differentiated by region (republic or territory), the stage of the war and some other characteristics. The Serbs suffered greater losses than the other peoples in the territories which make up Yugoslavia: according to Kocovic, the total Serbian losses would represent 7% of the Serbian population foreseen in the projections for 1948. (YUGOSLAVIA, WAR, HISTORY, DECEASED, ETHNIC GROUPS)

93.03.09 - Serbo-Croat - Zivota DORDEVIC

Commencement and Centres of Fertility Decline in Peasant Societies of the 19th Century Serbia? (Poceci i zarista pada nataliteta u seoskom drustvu Srbije XIX veka) (p. 161-170)

This article attempts to localise the time and the place where fertility began to decline in the peasant society of 19th-century Serbia and to identify the potential economic, social and psychological factors of this process. The author links the fertility decline with nuptiality, mortality and ageing of the peasant population. She situates the commencement in the region of Timok and the county of Pozarevac and attributes its predominant influence to the economic system, the type of family structure and family size. Religion and the Church had no particular impact. (YUGOSLAVIA, HISTORY, FERTILITY DECLINE, PEASANTRY, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION)

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