Back to home pageJapan (Tokyo) JINKO MONDAI KENKYU APRIL 1992 - NUMBER 202 93.32.01 - Japanese - Shigemi KONO, Institute of Population Problems, Ministry of Health and Welfare, 2-2, 1-Chome Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100 (Japan) Return to the Theory of Population Transition (p. 1-15) The author begins by discussing the new formulations of the population transition theory, in particular the works of John Knodell and Etienne van de Walle, with regard to the Princeton University projection of European fertility. He then discusses the application of the population transition theory to Japan. He undertakes two tasks: a comparison of changes in fertility in small- sized geographic areas between 1950 and 1960; and an analysis of the results of the 1940, 1952, 1957 and 1962 fertility surveys. The first of these steps demonstrates that the changes in fertility occurred in step with means of communication, the coastal regions and proximity to towns. The second analyses the changes in fertility by mother's age, father's occupation, mother's education and the family's economic status. It would appear that fertility has not been influenced by economic status, but that, on the contrary, the father's occupation and the mother's education did play a part. Cultural factors were an important part of fertility. (JAPAN, POPULATION TRANSITION, FERTILITY, CULTURAL CHANGE) 93.32.02 - Japanese - Yoko IMAIZUMI Mortality amongst the Elderly Aged 65 and Over in Japan. Geographical Variations (p. 16-31) Mortality variations in Japan amongst people aged at least 65 years old are examined by the twelve major causes of death over the period 1985-1990, based on civil status statistics. The mortality rates appear to be much higher in the North-East than in the South-East for cardio-vascular disease, suicide and diabetes, whereas hypertension illnesses, chronic liver diseases and cirrhosis appear to be higher in the South-East. Since 1970, the mortality rates for pneumonia and bronchitis have decreased significantly while the mortality rates for cancer, heart and vascular diseases and chronic liver diseases have remained practically unchanged. (JAPAN, MORTALITY, CAUSES OF DEATH) JULY 1992 - NUMBER 203 93.32.03 - Japanese - Yoshikazu WATANABE Japanese Women's Life Cycles - A Re-evaluation (p. 1-14) The author examines cohorts of Japanese women born between 1890 and 1940. For the cohorts born since 1950, he uses simulation projections. During the last hundred years, female mortality and fertility have decreased rapidly, as has the number of widows and living conditions have improved. Fertility at the end of their reproductive life has dropped from 5.3 for the cohort born in 1890 to 2.2 for the one born in 1940. Age at marriage has increased and the proportion of women who have never married by age 25-29 years has increased from 8% to 20%. For the cohorts born since 1950, this proportion has increased from 24% to 40%. The proportion of divorced women has gone from 2-3% to 3- 5% and it can be assumed that this will reach 6 or 7% at the end of their lives. Salary differentials between men and women affect the living conditions of divorced women. This raises political problems for economically relieving divorced women and economically active women. (JAPAN, WOMEN, POPULATION MOVEMENT) OCTOBER 1992 - NUMBER 204 93.32.04 - Japanese - Toru SUZUKI An Analytical Model of Relationship Structures Based on Age- and Parity-Specific Fertility (p. 1-15) This is a mathematical model aimed at re-building relationship structures, based on age- and parity- specific fertility. Parity-specific fertility is obtained using the National Fertility Survey of 1987 and women's parity-specific life tables are constructed. An intrinsic growth rate leading to a parity-specific stable population is calculated. The author finds that, contrary to expectations, the number of sisters is lower than the number of daughters when fertility is equal to or less than the replacement level. Before the fertility transition, it was the opposite which held true. When population growth is negative, the number of first-borns drops due to the decrease in the mothers' cohort. It appears that, with the fertility transition, the number of distant kin changes more than the number of close kin. (JAPAN, RELATIVES, POPULATION MODEL)
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